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Devils Goaltending In Perspective


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#1 Daniel

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 09:38 AM

I figured it might be worthwhile to start a new thread on this, but apologies if people think I'm trying to be an attention mongerer.

 

Anyway, I think if you want to put the goaltending as it relates to wins and losses into perspective, and if you assume save percentage is the magic number (i.e. that, over time, a shot is a shot is a shot) a pretty good comparison to make is with Minnesota.  The Devils and Minnesota are virtually identical in shots for per game (Minn has .4 more shots per game), and Minnesota gives up 2.4 more shots per game.  (While a statistician might tell you otherwise, it seems to me that the shots against differential is only slightly statistically significant, so that's the assumption I'm going on).  Minnesota and NJ's goals for and goals against are also pretty close. (NJ has 163 GF/Minn 154, NJ has 160 goals against and Minn has 155 goals against, and Minn. has one game at hand).

 

Now, if you look at Minnesota's goalie splits, it lines up pretty well with what even the biggest Marty haters would realistically want to see, Schneider getting about 70% of the starts.   For Minnesota, together, Kuemper and Harding have gotten 49 starts, and Backstrom has 21 starts (Bryz has only one start so I'll leave him out).  Recognizing that it's not a precise calculation, if you put their save percentage together, Kuemper and Harding have a save percentage of around .925.  Backstrom's save percentage is virtually identical to Marty's (.899 to .901, respectively).  One place where the comparison seems to break down on its own terms is that Backstrom seems to have faced more shots per game than Marty, since Backstrom's GAA is about .5 higher than Marty's.  So in other words, and again, assuming save percentage is at least a very revealing statistic, Kuemper and Harding are almost the same as what we would expect Schneider's save percentage to be (although it has taken a dip by virtue of his last two starts) and Backstrom is very close to being the same goalie that Marty is. 

 

Minnesota has six more points than the Devils, with one game at hand, but has also seven shootout wins to the Devils zero.

 

I recognize two flaws in addition to the assumptions noted above.  First, the goal support factor for Marty and Schneider.  While for our purposes, I'll concede that it's random, I think people underestimate the effect of Marty's puck handling abilities, which definitely showed last night, and which Kowalsky -- Albany coach -- in an interview has said can impact the game more than you think.    The other flaw, perhaps, is that the sample size is not sufficient. 

 

So recognizing at least those flaws, one could say that Marty has cost the Devils a few points as compared to a situation where Schneider was the number 1 goalie from the start of the season.   For a team that will be scratching and clawing to get its way into the playoffs, it matters.  But until the Devils can manage to score more goals (which we're starting to see now, but we'll see how long it lasts), we can't expect the Devils to be much more than a low seeded playoff team, even with an ideal goaltending situation. 


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#2 Daniel

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 09:52 AM

I'll add by the way, that Backstrom appears to have gotten crap for offensive support, since his record was 5-11-2.


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#3 squishyx

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 10:07 AM

I don't think I understand your argument. You are saying the Wild effectively have a similar situation to the Devils, ie roughly the same goaltending quandary, same gf/ga, same shot differential.

Then you note that the Wild have 6 more points then us, but 7 shootout wins and then claim Marty has cost us several points.

How? Based on your analysis the difference in points just comes down to those shootout wins (or lack there of), which I think we would all agree is 97% the result of scoring only 1 shootout goal all year, regardless of who was in net.


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#4 Daniel

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 10:38 AM

I don't think I understand your argument. You are saying the Wild effectively have a similar situation to the Devils, ie roughly the same goaltending quandary, same gf/ga, same shot differential.

Then you note that the Wild have 6 more points then us, but 7 shootout wins and then claim Marty has cost us several points.

How? Based on your analysis the difference in points just comes down to those shootout wins (or lack there of), which I think we would all agree is 97% the result of scoring only 1 shootout goal all year, regardless of who was in net.

 

What I'm saying is that Minnesota is very similar in every other area, except in the division of starts that the Marty haters would like to see.  Harding/Kuemper have the save percentage that we generally expect from Schneider, and they combined have gotten seventy percent of the starts, which is what those people want Schneider to get, instead of the 50/50 split between Marty and Schneider right now. 

 

The shootout factor was a rough calculation, and I said Marty would costs us a "few points".  I'm basically assuming that shootout wins/losses are not completely random, and that the Devils, while "unlucky", are not particularly good at scoring goals in them.

 

EDIT:  The Devils goalie split is not 50/50, and Schneider has I think three more starts, but it's still pretty close to 50/50.


Edited by Daniel, 12 March 2014 - 10:45 AM.

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#5 squishyx

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 10:51 AM

What I'm saying is that Minnesota is very similar in every other area, except in the division of starts that the Marty haters would like to see.  Harding/Kuemper have the save percentage that we generally expect from Schneider, and they combined have gotten seventy percent of the starts, which is what those people want Schneider to get, instead of the 50/50 split between Marty and Schneider right now. 

 

The shootout factor was a rough calculation, and I said Marty would costs us a "few points".  I'm basically assuming that shootout wins/losses are not completely random, and that the Devils, while "unlucky", are not particularly good at scoring goals in them.

 

EDIT:  The Devils goalie split is not 50/50, and Schneider has I think three more starts, but it's still pretty close to 50/50.

Right but, with a 50/50 split we are effectively the same as the wild with a 70/30. So doesn't that mean it doesn't matter?

IE Had we started Cory for 70/30, we would expect similar results to the Wild, who have the same record as us sans the shootout albatross.


Edited by squishyx, 12 March 2014 - 10:51 AM.

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#6 NJDevs4978

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 11:02 AM

If anything all that proves is their goalie records are in line with puck stopping ability unlike ours.
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#7 Daniel

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 11:03 AM

Right but, with a 50/50 split we are effectively the same as the wild with a 70/30. So doesn't that mean it doesn't matter?

IE Had we started Cory for 70/30, we would expect similar results to the Wild, who have the same record as us sans the shootout albatross.

 

Minnesota has one game at hand.  I also should have noted that their level of competition is probably a little better, and hence the quality of shots they face makes their goalies' job more difficult.  There's also the flukey goal support that you can argue Marty gets for no reason at all.   


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#8 Daniel

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 11:14 AM

If anything all that proves is their goalie records are in line with puck stopping ability unlike ours.

 

Perhaps that, and also, the ultimate result the Devils might expect to have if Schneider were getting the number of starts we would have liked to have seen him get up until now. 


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#9 devilsrule33

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 01:25 PM

I ran through the schedule of the two today:

 

Schneider: Has started 10 times in the 2nd half of a back-to-back (3 of those times he started both the 1st and 2nd games)

 

Brodeur: Has started 6 times in the 2nd half of a back-to-back

 

Schneider: 12 games against Western Conference playoff teams (4-8) 

 

Brodeur: 3 games against Western Conference playoff teams (1-2)

 

 

Didn't have the time to look through basic stats within the games, but it's pretty obvious that Cory has been given the tougher games and the tougher situations.


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#10 Daniel

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 02:22 PM

I ran through the schedule of the two today:

 

Schneider: Has started 10 times in the 2nd half of a back-to-back (3 of those times he started both the 1st and 2nd games)

 

Brodeur: Has started 6 times in the 2nd half of a back-to-back

 

Schneider: 12 games against Western Conference playoff teams (4-8) 

 

Brodeur: 3 games against Western Conference playoff teams (1-2)

 

 

Didn't have the time to look through basic stats within the games, but it's pretty obvious that Cory has been given the tougher games and the tougher situations.

 

Yeah, I didn't doubt that to begin with, and I didn't dispute the fact that Schneider's goal support has been significantly less.  

 

The idea was to find another team that is reasonably close to the Devils in certain statistical categories in order to get a sense of what the Devils record this year might look like if Cory were getting the clear majority of the starts, rather than doing some kind of abstract WAR or GVT analysis that I couldn't understand anyway.  

 

I probably acted too quickly in throwing out some theoretical point total.  But, basically, the Devils' overall save percentage would be pretty close to what the Wild are getting  if Schneider were getting more of the starts.  Otherwise, the Devils and the Wild get close to the same amount of shots on goal and shots in the goal, and shots against.  The Wild are comfortably in the playoffs, but are a low seeded team.  So that's roughly what the Devils would be if DeBoer had treated Marty as the back-up from day 1, or at least that's what I think we can conclude.


Edited by Daniel, 12 March 2014 - 02:25 PM.

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#11 DH26

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 04:00 PM

Yeah when the Devils are in the FAR superior west, this becomes valid 


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