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#41 Triumph

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 03:12 PM

I will believe the latter when I see it Tri and I hope you are right but when it comes to your projections, there always seems to be a caveat the following seasons in other areas that fall off and we keep seeing this saber stat dance of what needs to be addressed. Lou has to find Zajac and Jagr a legitimate winger for Jagr to hold up and that line to succeed consistently if not dominate.

Lou has to make further moves with the forwards and probably through trades. He absolutely has to. There is no debate on this point not being accurate that I will even entertain.

Puck possession is an important stat but it is not a saving grace for the kind of deficiencies we had last year. It kept us close but showed how weak the roster was in certain areas both skill wise and depth wise.

 

They definitely need forwards - I'm not arguing that.  What I'm saying is that Jagr is the largest domino in the Rube Goldberg that is NJ making the playoffs.  He was probably worth $9M last year, so even if he's only half as good as he was last year he's still pulling his weight.  It also signals to everyone else that the Devils aren't half-assing things.

 

First off, Clowe's salary is more or less okay so long as he's healthy.  If he's not, his salary won't count against the cap (notwithstanding the technicalities) and insurance will cover much of the real dollars.

 

Second, Jagr put up more points over the past two years than Paul Statsny, who everyone wants to break the bank for.  You could be paying Jagr $8 million next year.  If it's only for one year, and it doesn't prevent other moves, it doesn't matter.  If the bottom drops out next year, so be it.  Next season is a good year to be awful anyway.

 

If the bottom drops out, NJ isn't a playoff team and maybe they deal Jagr for a 2nd round pick.  Nothing ventured.  The only risk with a 1 year contract is will it affect other moves and will it impinge on other players' playing time.  I don't think it will affect other potential moves - UFA is barren aside from Paul Statsny and even if Brad Richards comes available he's a bad option - and the Devils' other RWs are Brunner, Ryder, and pray for power outage.


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#42 MantaRay

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 03:32 PM

Great start to 2014-15 season


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#43 MadDog2020

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 03:50 PM

Rich Chere ‏@Ledger_NJDevils:
Devils GM Lou Lamoriello confirms the Jagr deal is virtually done, but not completed.
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#44 redruM

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 03:54 PM

I know people will say we should be getting younger, bla bla bla, but the numbers Jagr had this year, and the influence he can have on our younger players makes his presence on our team invaluable.
 
Very glad he's back, he certainly earned it, with his play.


I always think we can get younger, but this is a great signing, I never had a problem w/ Jagr...its all the other oldies I want out!
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#45 Daniel

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 04:39 PM

If the bottom drops out, NJ isn't a playoff team and maybe they deal Jagr for a 2nd round pick. Nothing ventured. The only risk with a 1 year contract is will it affect other moves and will it impinge on other players' playing time. I don't think it will affect other potential moves - UFA is barren aside from Paul Statsny and even if Brad Richards comes available he's a bad option - and the Devils' other RWs are Brunner, Ryder, and pray for power outage.


I also meant so far as being in the Connor McDavid, Eichel, Hannifin sweepstakes. (Relatedly, Pronman has an interesting article (paywall) on whether the Isles should give up this years pick).

There are a few other pretty good ufa options although overpriced and unavailable, Iginla, Vanek and Moulson (would want no part of Gaborik even in theory).

Given the savings on Marty and the probable loss of either Volchenkov or Salvador, the Devils could easily afford a big ticket free agent or perhaps even two.


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#46 dmann422

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 05:00 PM

But but but- Lou always waits for ufa's to hit the market before negotiating and then loses them for nothing! Cough SD cough.

Yeah, glad he's back.
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#47 ZeroGravityFat

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 07:23 PM

lou admitted that he makes the deals well before the ufa and just announces them on the day of.

 

next up, schneider and stastny


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#48 2ELIAS6

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 08:19 PM

to be honest... i dont know much about this stastny that everyone here seems to be so obsessed with but i looked him up quick on capgeek and just from a quick glance on there he doesnt seem like anything so special.. i think his highest scoring season was 25 goals once... big deal.. i mean as i said i dont really know much about him what he brings to the shootout the power play etc. but just from a quick glance of his goals and points that he puts up season to season didnt seem like all that... we need a solid 30 plus goal scorer.
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#49 lazer

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 09:14 PM

oh look, good news

 

i think keeping coach debo and jagr coincide with each other but not because of each other.


Edited by lazer, 29 April 2014 - 09:16 PM.

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#50 mouse

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 09:15 PM

No complaints. Obviously not a long term fix, but he was the long bright spot last year.


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#51 thefiestygoat

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Posted 29 April 2014 - 09:18 PM

to be honest... i dont know much about this stastny that everyone here seems to be so obsessed with but i looked him up quick on capgeek and just from a quick glance on there he doesnt seem like anything so special.. i think his highest scoring season was 25 goals once... big deal.. i mean as i said i dont really know much about him what he brings to the shootout the power play etc. but just from a quick glance of his goals and points that he puts up season to season didnt seem like all that... we need a solid 30 plus goal scorer.

Stastny's entering his age 29 season, is a 0.85 points per game player across 538 NHL regular season games, and can play in all situations. Looking at the Avs player usage charts over the last 3 seasons, Stastny has ate some tough minutes for the team, going up against tough opposition and having more defensive zone starts than offensive ones. Also he's a center so I'd judge him a lot more off of his assists and points totals than his goals, but the fact he can score is a huge plus.


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#52 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 06:18 AM

Stastny's entering his age 29 season, is a 0.85 points per game player across 538 NHL regular season games, and can play in all situations. Looking at the Avs player usage charts over the last 3 seasons, Stastny has ate some tough minutes for the team, going up against tough opposition and having more defensive zone starts than offensive ones. Also he's a center so I'd judge him a lot more off of his assists and points totals than his goals, but the fact he can score is a huge plus.

 

Only issue with this:

 

1st four seasons:  .963 points-per-game

last four seasons:  .735 points-per-game 

 

Does that all that have to do with how he was used the past few seasons, as opposed to his best seasons already being behind him?  I'd have to look at comparative data from all eight seasons to be sure.  FWIW, his ppg average went up this season over the prior three, to .845. 

 

At any rate, he's putting up points in the 2014 playoffs (9 in 6 GP), and he's going to get a nice payday.  As long as Devils fans are prepared for the UFA inflation rate, and don't expect more from a points standpoint, then he could be a nice pickup.  But realistically, you're looking at 20-25 goals, and 30-40 assists.  Hopefully around 60 points each season.  Anything over that should probably seen as a bonus. 

 

And on-topic...glad Jagr is coming back.  Obviously it's a risk, given his age, but one worth taking.  The fact that he wants to be here in light of his earlier comments (not wanting to stay if the Devils didn't make the playoffs) makes me think Lou told him that other moves are coming.  I don't think Lou's going to back on overall better goaltending next season (though he can) and hope for better luck next season...I think we're going to see something significant.


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 30 April 2014 - 06:29 AM.

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#53 EdgeControl

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 07:35 AM

a no-brainer one year deal. no, its not setting the future back. I'll gladly overpay a bit short term. wish my jets thought the same way about a starting cornerback.

 

hopefilly, a wink and a nod deal that we'll trade him at the deadline if we're way out of playoff contention, and recoup a pick....solid move

 

now we need 20 more goals from a forward added


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#54 DJ Eco

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:35 AM

to be honest... i dont know much about this stastny that everyone here seems to be so obsessed with but i looked him up quick on capgeek and just from a quick glance on there he doesnt seem like anything so special.. i think his highest scoring season was 25 goals once... big deal.. i mean as i said i dont really know much about him what he brings to the shootout the power play etc. but just from a quick glance of his goals and points that he puts up season to season didnt seem like all that... we need a solid 30 plus goal scorer.

 

There's a few things that I think have us excited. We can't really see into the future but the writing is on the wall that he may be the odd man out in a Colorado roster that's going to need a lot of money to re-sign/maintain through the next few years. Landeskog's, Varlamov's, and Duchene's extensions go on the books and hit the cap next year. Also, Ryan O'Reilly's an RFA this offseason and if they're looking far ahead enough, they'll have to keep in mind how they'll keep Mackinnon and I'd assume they want Erik Johnson long-term. Aside from that, their defense could also use a facelift this offseason. But I digress... The math suggests Stastny should have either been traded at the deadline, or may be let go in July. If he stays with Colorado, it will most likely hinge on him giving them a mega hometown discount.

 

Now, onto his game: he scores goals we desperately need, while also making big plays, putting up assists, making his linemates much better. Even at ±20-25 goals, it's more than we're getting now. Imagine how our season would've gone with another player putting up 20+ goals. That tips the scale in so many of those 1-goal games. Maybe only Gaborik, Vanek, and possibly Cammalleri could have that kind of offensive output. 

 

But here's what these players don't have: Stastny plays all situations; penalty kill, power play, great two-way game relatively speaking compared to the rest of the Avs roster. I'm sure that's why his numbers may have dropped off as he got older; he's assumed more responsibility and a leadership role that maybe doesn't single-handedly rely on his point totals.

 

Then, there's the intangibles: the guy has lived in Jersey before, his dad played here. Character-wise, he's the kind of player our team can build upon. He is a Henrique/Zajac type of player but possibly better. I think our system, which would probably hinder UFAs like Gaborik or Vanek, would probably benefit his style of play or at least maintain it. Add onto that a year (or more) of learning from Jagr, and you have enough reasons to really want this kid in a Devils uniform.


Edited by DJ Eco, 30 April 2014 - 09:36 AM.

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#55 MantaRay

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:46 AM

Next up give Zidlicky a two year deal while the kids get more compfortable.


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#56 Mike Brown

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 09:52 AM

Cool beans!  He must have confidence in this team next season.


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#57 devilsrule33

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:05 AM

Next up give Zidlicky a two year deal while the kids get more compfortable.

 

If Zid was fine with taking a 1-year deal last year (presumably only offered because Lou wanted some flexibility for the 2014-2015 season if young players were ready), why offer him a 2-year deal a year later?

 

I want Zidlicky back, but it has to be at a 1-year deal. He'd be smart to look elsewhere for a multi-year deal after the season he had, but he took a 1-year deal last year, so who knows.


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#58 '7'

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 11:32 AM

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#59 MadDog2020

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 11:38 AM

Jagr is a finalist for the Masterton Trophy along with Manny Malhotra and Dominic Moore: http://blogs.northje...sterton_trophy/
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#60 coldply123

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 11:53 AM

Jagr is a finalist for the Masterton Trophy along with Manny Malhotra and Dominic Moore: http://blogs.northje...sterton_trophy/


That's a tough competition. I think Malhotra wins it though.
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