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Stanley Cups Won vs. Projected


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#1 devilsfan26

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Posted 15 June 2014 - 11:37 AM

I thought I posted this on here a year or two ago and was going to just bump that thread but couldn't find it in a search so maybe I didn't actually post it.  Anyway, I calculated how many Cups each franchise should have based on how many years they've been in the league and how many other teams were in the league for each of those years.  Then, to measure how successful each team has been at reaching those expectations, I divided the number of Cups each team actually has won by how many they should have to come up with a percentage.  Here is the list in order of most successful to least successful.  100% means they have exactly as many Cups as projected.  Each team's percentage includes the entire history of the franchise, so for example the Scouts and Rockies are factored into the Devils' percentage.  I also counted 1919 as half a Cup for Montreal since they made it to the finals against the Seattle Metropolitans, but the deciding game was never played because of the flu epidemic.

368.48  (5/1.35)      Edmonton Oilers

235.92  (24.5/10.39)  Montreal Canadiens

226.89  (4/1.76)      New York Islanders

183.15  (3/1.64)      New Jersey Devils

147.39  (2/1.36)      Colorado Avalanche

143.19  (1/0.70)      Anaheim Ducks

139.16  (3/2.16)      Pittsburgh Penguins

135.12  (1/0.74)      Tampa Bay Lightning

133.76  (11/8.22)     Detroit Red Wings

129.51  (13/10.04)    Toronto Maple Leafs

 92.77  (2/2.16)      Los Angeles Kings

 92.77  (2/2.16)      Philadelphia Flyers

 73.7   (1/1.36)      Carolina Hurricanes

 71.56  (6/8.38)      Boston Bruins

 56.72  (1/1.76)      Calgary Flames

 48.64  (4/8.22)      Chicago Blackhawks

 48.64  (4/8.22)      New York Rangers

 46.39  (1/2.16)      Dallas Stars

  0     (0/0.43)      Minnesota Wild

  0     (0/0.43)      Columbus Blue Jackets

  0     (0/0.47)      Winnipeg Jets

  0     (0/0.51)      Nashville Predators

  0     (0/0.70)      Florida Panthers

  0     (0/0.74)      Ottawa Senators

  0     (0/0.79)      San Jose Sharks

  0     (0/1.36)      Phoenix Coyotes

  0     (0/1.64)      Washington Capitals

  0     (0/1.91)      Vancouver Canucks

  0     (0/1.91)      Buffalo Sabres

  0     (0/2.16)      St. Louis Blues

 

Interesting to note that only three teams are higher than the Devils, and the only teams worse at meeting their projection than the Rangers are Dallas and the 12 teams that have never won the Cup, of which only five should have won one by now.  LA was below the Rangers and tied with Dallas until the other day.  The next time Rangers fans tell you, "4 > 3, BRAH!" feel free to show them this and explain to them that even if they had 8 Cups, that would be nothing special, it would be par, but instead they have half of that.


Edited by devilsfan26, 16 June 2014 - 05:00 PM.

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#2 Devs4LordStanley

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Posted 15 June 2014 - 03:39 PM

how are you getting the % in the divisor, exactly?


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#3 devilsfan26

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Posted 15 June 2014 - 05:54 PM

how are you getting the % in the divisor, exactly?

That is the number of Cups each team should have won based on how many years each team was in the league and how many other teams were in the league for each of those years.  For example, if a team started last season, the number of Cups they should have is 0.067 because last year the chances of winning were 1/30, or 0.033, and this year was another 0.033, so you add them together and get 0.067.


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"Swim against the tide, don't follow the group, stay away from the majority, seek out the fresh and new, stay away from the poseurs, and don't be a barnacle. Be original, be different, be passionate, be selfless and be free. Be a hockey fan."
--John Buccigross

#4 Devs4LordStanley

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Posted 15 June 2014 - 07:48 PM

kudos to you! thanks for doing this!


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#5 devilsfan26

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Posted 15 June 2014 - 09:45 PM

No problem, I just had some time to kill one day while waiting for something in my car to be repaired and since then I've just updated the spreadsheet at the end of every season to keep the numbers current.  I'm surprised statistics like this are never brought up.  I can't think of a better way to measure a franchise's overall success.


Edited by devilsfan26, 15 June 2014 - 09:46 PM.

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"Swim against the tide, don't follow the group, stay away from the majority, seek out the fresh and new, stay away from the poseurs, and don't be a barnacle. Be original, be different, be passionate, be selfless and be free. Be a hockey fan."
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#6 Devilsfan118

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Posted 15 June 2014 - 09:56 PM

Hm, I'm sure some here will take issue with the 1/30 metric, but either way it makes for an interesting analysis.

Thanks for doing this!

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Oh actually, just for shiggles... What's the Devils # if you only include years in New Jersey?

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#7 devilsrule33

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Posted 15 June 2014 - 09:57 PM

Can't help but feel bad for St Louis fans. Great group of fans that deserve better.


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#8 devilsfan26

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Posted 15 June 2014 - 10:59 PM

Hm, I'm sure some here will take issue with the 1/30 metric, but either way it makes for an interesting analysis.

Thanks for doing this!

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Oh actually, just for shiggles... What's the Devils # if you only include years in New Jersey?

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The Devils' percentage including only the years in New Jersey is 247.1, lower only than Edmonton.


Edited by devilsfan26, 15 June 2014 - 10:59 PM.

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"Swim against the tide, don't follow the group, stay away from the majority, seek out the fresh and new, stay away from the poseurs, and don't be a barnacle. Be original, be different, be passionate, be selfless and be free. Be a hockey fan."
--John Buccigross

#9 David Puddy

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Posted 15 June 2014 - 11:56 PM

Can't help but feel bad for St Louis fans. Great group of fans that deserve better.

 

Yeah, but they have terrible taste in pizza.


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#10 DJ Eco

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Posted 16 June 2014 - 08:53 AM

The next time Rangers fans tell you, "4 > 3, BRAH!" feel free to show them this and explain to them that even if they had 8 Cups, that would be nothing special, it would be par, but instead they have half of that.

 

You're giving Rangers fans way too much credit in the "being rational" department.


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#11 devilsfan26

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Posted 16 June 2014 - 09:45 AM

Hm, I'm sure some here will take issue with the 1/30 metric, but either way it makes for an interesting analysis.

Every team doesn't have a 1/30 chance any given year because some expect to contend for the Cup while others are rebuilding, but the premise is that over time, that stuff should cycle around and cancel out.  If it doesn't, that generally can be attributed to how well the team is managed, so that's why I think 1/30 (at least for years when there have been 30 teams obviously) is fine.  It's not perfect, but I think over enough years it is good enough for this statistic to have meaning.


Edited by devilsfan26, 16 June 2014 - 09:45 AM.

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"Swim against the tide, don't follow the group, stay away from the majority, seek out the fresh and new, stay away from the poseurs, and don't be a barnacle. Be original, be different, be passionate, be selfless and be free. Be a hockey fan."
--John Buccigross

#12 AEWHistory

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Posted 16 June 2014 - 04:02 PM

Can't help but feel bad for St Louis fans. Great group of fans that deserve better.


Yea, but you gotta admit they've been a great feeder system for us.... ;)
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#13 Derek21

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Posted 16 June 2014 - 10:59 PM

Can't help but feel bad for St Louis fans. Great group of fans that deserve better.

 

The Blues came in expansion and made two straight finals and haven't been back since. Their success is similar to the Sabres, who also have appeared twice. St. Louis is better run. Lot to like with the current roster. But they don't seem to have what it takes to go deep. I'd pick Colorado before the Blues. Great talent and a legit number one goalie. They still must improve defensively.


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