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Let's start a pool of where Brodeur will end up


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#301 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 06:31 AM

i agree. its not impossible to break per say, but i need 2 see someone get close before believing it. at this point no one is even on track to get to 600 let alone 700. not even hank

 

MAF is actually on about the same pace that Marty was at this point in his career, though slightly behind.  MAF will be 30 years old on 11/28 this season, and could have his 300th win by then (he currently has 288 in 531 GP).  By comparison, Marty won his 300th in his 548th game played (third-fewest number of games to hit that milestone at that time, behind Jacques Plante and Andy Moog), and was about 4.5 months shy of his 30th birthday when he did it.   

 

Of course, I don't make a whole lot out of the above...for one, he's not even halfway to Marty's win total, and for another MAF could find himself on a new team as soon as next season that isn't as good as the Penguins, he could get injured, he's never started more than 66 games in a season (by comparison, Marty started 70+ 11 times).  No one started more than 64 last season, and if you check out the number of goalies that consistently started 70+ games per season, Mikka Kiprusoff was the only recent one besides Marty to get a consistent 70+ game workload (6 straight seasons of 71+ starts).  You see other guys getting 70+ here and there, some for a few seasons, but nothing approaching Marty's workload...there's a reason why he has SO many more games played than everyone else. 

 

Basically, what was the norm for Marty (70+ starts for just about every season of his prime, with almost no long-term injuries) has very much become the exception for everyone else (and except for Kiprusoff, it pretty much always was the exception for everyone else...Hasek started 70+ in a season once, and Roy never did it).  No one starting more than 64 games last season could be an indication of where the league is headed...the guy who starts 70+ games could soon be a relic, which makes winning 40+ games year in and year out harder; that being said, it won't surprise me much if the Devils give Cory a shot to be a Marty-like exception and made him a consistent 70+ guy if he shows he can handle it without ill-effects.

 

Anyway, all of the above is basically a way of saying that Marty's win record is about as close as impossible to break as it gets, especially with the chance very likely being out of the goaltenders' hands (if their coaches all lean towards 65 GP or less, what can the goalies possibly do about it?).


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 18 July 2014 - 06:33 AM.

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Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

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#302 Devils Pride 26

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 07:48 AM

Goalies are going the way of NFL running backs. Unless you have a great, durable one teams seem to be relying more on tandems
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#303 Beezer34

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 08:05 AM

MAF is actually on about the same pace that Marty was at this point in his career, though slightly behind.  MAF will be 30 years old on 11/28 this season, and could have his 300th win by then (he currently has 288 in 531 GP).  By comparison, Marty won his 300th in his 548th game played (third-fewest number of games to hit that milestone at that time, behind Jacques Plante and Andy Moog), and was about 4.5 months shy of his 30th birthday when he did it.

 

NHL on the Fly recently touched on that same notion. By the time Marty turned 29, he had just concluded the 2001 season. At that point, he had won 286 games. Marc Andre Fleury has won nearly 300 games, and is still only 29 years old. Assuming Fleury plays 'till he's Marty's age.. that would leave him with 14 more seasons. If he averages 28 wins per season until his career ends, that would give him nearly 400 more wins. The trick to the whole thing is: Is he part of the long-term plans for Pittsburgh. Coming off a season where he won 39 games, and having posted a Sv% of .915 --I can't see why they wouldn't bring him back.


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#304 SS#4-Life

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 08:46 AM

NHL on the Fly recently touched on that same notion. By the time Marty turned 29, he had just concluded the 2001 season. At that point, he had won 286 games. Marc Andre Fleury has won nearly 300 games, and is still only 29 years old. Assuming Fleury plays 'till he's Marty's age.. that would leave him with 14 more seasons. If he averages 28 wins per season until his career ends, that would give him nearly 400 more wins. The trick to the whole thing is: Is he part of the long-term plans for Pittsburgh. Coming off a season where he won 39 games, and having posted a Sv% of .915 --I can't see why they wouldn't bring him back.

do u reallythink that m.a.f will have a hof career from this point on though? or win 28 games at 42 yrs old? even on a team w.crosby & malkin, thats still a tough task


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#305 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 08:59 AM

I've said it before, but I give MAF a pretty good shot at being second overall in career wins by the time his career ends, but it's probably going to take him another 550-600 games to get there.  Has to stay healthy and has to keep playing on good teams. 

 

The playoff issues are going to weigh heavily in what Pittsburgh decides to do with him...I'm not sure how to read into Pitt's reluctance to re-sign him.  I know he's been helped by the team in front of him, and good teams can help a goalie's glamour numbers (like win totals) greatly as long as he plays decently, but the fact is his win total to date and the age at which he's done it puts him in select company, which means he'll generate some interest if he makes it to UFA...just not sure how much teams are willing to pay him...he may have a Brodeur-like win total at this point in his career, but I don't think teams see greatness when they see Fleury.  If he ever finishes second in career wins, you'll hear a lot of "yeah, buts" when people look back on his career.

 

Here's the tentative 2015 UFA goalie class...of course, some of these guys may sign before they ever get to UFA.  I posted the list because it shows Pitt and MAF might not have much choice but to stick with each other:

 

http://www.capgeek.c...=G&fa_type_id=2


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 18 July 2014 - 09:00 AM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#306 Daniel

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 09:13 AM

I've said it before, but I give MAF a pretty good shot at being second overall in career wins by the time his career ends, but it's probably going to take him another 550-600 games to get there.  Has to stay healthy and has to keep playing on good teams. 

 

The playoff issues are going to weigh heavily in what Pittsburgh decides to do with him...I'm not sure how to read into Pitt's reluctance to re-sign him.  I know he's been helped by the team in front of him, and good teams can help a goalie's glamour numbers (like win totals) greatly as long as he plays decently, but the fact is his win total to date and the age at which he's done it puts him in select company, which means he'll generate some interest if he makes it to UFA...just not sure how much teams are willing to pay him...he may have a Brodeur-like win total at this point in his career, but I don't think teams see greatness when they see Fleury.  If he ever finishes second in career wins, you'll hear a lot of "yeah, buts" when people look back on his career.

 

Here's the tentative 2015 UFA goalie class...of course, some of these guys may sign before they ever get to UFA.  I posted the list because it shows Pitt and MAF might not have much choice but to stick with each other:

 

http://www.capgeek.c...=G&fa_type_id=2

 

His "yeah buts" come more from the fact that he plays behind a team will usually finish in the top five in goals scored.  It's less pronounced than the goal support someone like Grant Fuhr got, but the principle is the same.  He's also never won a Vezina, and, so far as I can recall, has never even been nominated for one. 


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#307 Beezer34

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 09:44 AM

do u reallythink that m.a.f will have a hof career from this point on though? or win 28 games at 42 yrs old? even on a team w.crosby & malkin, thats still a tough task

 

When I say 28 wins per season.. I say it in a capricious way. It’s a variable statistic.. ever-changing as Fleury’s career evolves, which makes it an arbitrary number.

There are factors that could go against Fleury.. such as an injury, a lockout, a poor season, etc. If such circumstances were to transpire, it would negatively impact the average wins per-season.. thus; it would raise to a higher number. However, you have to look at both sides of it. MAF is still in his prime.. and if he continues to win 40 games or more over the next couple seasons, then he’s more than halfway to 700, and is still only 31 years old! The average wins per season figure would go down. If he stays durable, keeps in shape, and has a Hasek like career (in the sense of playing ‘till he’s 44 or 45) then the average wins per year figure would again continue to drop.

 

His "yeah buts" come more from the fact that he plays behind a team will usually finish in the top five in goals scored.  It's less pronounced than the goal support someone like Grant Fuhr got, but the principle is the same.  He's also never won a Vezina, and, so far as I can recall, has never even been nominated for one. 

 

..another "yeah but" issue would be the shootout era. Brodeur has over 100 ties... Fleury has 2!


Edited by Beezer34, 18 July 2014 - 09:46 AM.

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#308 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 11:22 AM

 

When I say 28 wins per season.. I say it in a capricious way. It’s a variable statistic.. ever-changing as Fleury’s career evolves, which makes it an arbitrary number.

There are factors that could go against Fleury.. such as an injury, a lockout, a poor season, etc. If such circumstances were to transpire, it would negatively impact the average wins per-season.. thus; it would raise to a higher number. However, you have to look at both sides of it. MAF is still in his prime.. and if he continues to win 40 games or more over the next couple seasons, then he’s more than halfway to 700, and is still only 31 years old! The average wins per season figure would go down. If he stays durable, keeps in shape, and has a Hasek like career (in the sense of playing ‘till he’s 44 or 45) then the average wins per year figure would again continue to drop.

 

 

..another "yeah but" issue would be the shootout era. Brodeur has over 100 ties... Fleury has 2!

 

Way too many ifs here.  We saw Marty to continue to collect wins at an insane pace that only really slowed up over his final 4 seasons (86-70-20...his winning%, point%, whatever you want to call it was pretty steady before then...he had a record of 602-324-105-29 through 2009-2010), but that doesn't mean Fleury will follow suit.  It's kind of like the major-league pitcher who seems like a lock for 300 wins and the HOF as he zooms out to his first 150 or so, then the next thing you know, he barely makes it to 200. 

 

It all really comes back to the same thing...if Fleury gets to 500 wins and still looks like he has a lot left in the tank, then we can talk.  Even if he "only" surpassed Roy, even with shootout wins bloating the overall total, that'd still be a hell of an achievement...it would show that he was incredibly durable, at they very least.  But he has a long way to go. 


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 18 July 2014 - 11:24 AM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#309 Beezer34

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 12:35 PM

Oh absolutely. Like I said.. just because he's on pace with Marty, doesn't mean he's going to beat Marty. If he gets under 25 wins for the next two years (or gets a serious injury) it would almost certainly knock him out of contention. But if he's closing in on 500 wins, and is only 36 years old.. the remainder of MAF's career will make for very interesting storytelling.


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#310 Onddeck

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 12:54 PM

on nhl.com right now:

 

http://www.nhl.com/i...id=nhl:topheads

 

funny, he says, "I'm really open-minded about the situation I'm looking for, but it's pretty specific..."

 

-really doesn't make any sense and sounds a little stubborn.  but really, all is on par on the Brodeur front.


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#311 BlueSkirt

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 01:51 PM

When not 1, but 3 of your sons are in Camp....Wow !


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#312 RizzMB30

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 02:43 PM

Goalies are going the way of NFL running backs. Unless you have a great, durable one teams seem to be relying more on tandems

This is very true.  However, most running backs are lucky if they play 10 seasons.  Goalies can play up until their early 40s easily, moreso than skaters.


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#313 mrthemike

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 11:31 AM

on nhl.com right now:

 

http://www.nhl.com/i...id=nhl:topheads

 

funny, he says, "I'm really open-minded about the situation I'm looking for, but it's pretty specific..."

 

-really doesn't make any sense and sounds a little stubborn.  but really, all is on par on the Brodeur front.

 

Stubborn? Yep, that's our Marty alright!


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#314 roomtemp

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 12:27 PM

This is very true.  However, most running backs are lucky if they play 10 seasons.  Goalies can play up until their early 40s easily, moreso than skaters.

 

Well its for different reasons. In the NFL its because they get abused so much that you won't get many years out of a running back compared to other positions. Also its a plus to be young, athletic (compared to an older running) and cheap. Younger guys are faster and most running backs are interchangeable because they just want someone who is fast and stupid enough to be a running back. In the NHL its more that the difference between mid 20s quality through and even into the top 10 isn't as great as it once was.

 

Also so many running backs and goalies can put up great numbers due to being products of systems. Running backs behind a great offensive line and goalies behind a defensive system that you don't have to have the most talented ones to make that system work. In the NHL if you have that one guy you can rely on its such a relief because you don't have to worry every year about who your goalie is going to be or switching in and out the hot hand. Plus if you can trust them in the playoffs that's even better.


Edited by roomtemp, 22 July 2014 - 12:28 PM.

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#315 Devilsfan118

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 09:31 AM

No way MAF touches Marty's numbers, for a multitude of reasons.  I'd bet my life savings on it.

 

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