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#61 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 19 September 2007 - 03:05 PM

Here's what I wrote about last night's game on another site:

Great job last night Willie...I especially liked that move you made in the fifth inning, where you stood there with that stupid look on your face while everyone else but you knew your starter had absolutely nothing. I guess it was more important to you to try to let an undeserving John Maine get the win than it was to try to end the free-fall your team finds itself in. Oh yeah...and thanks so much for starting Mr. Batting Practice himself the day before too. As much as I hate the Yankees, year after year Joe Torre shows everyone what he's made of by keeping his team together and finding ways to get it done when it looks like things couldn't possibly get any worse.

Oh well...since there's no big names out there, I guess we're stuck with you for the forseeable future. Guess all we can do is hope next year is like last year's regular season, because it's now abundantly clear that dealing with the slightest bit of adversity (dating back to last year's playoffs) ain't your strong suit.

--------------

I've also come to some other conclusions about some of these Mets:

However many wins John Maine accumulates this year, that will be his career high. Any talk about him being an ace someday can pretty much be forgotten. I don't think he's quite as bad as he's been this second half, but I definitely don't think he's anywhere near as good as he showed in the first half either. I forget who said it, but some commentator admitted that he wasn't sure how Maine was having so much success early on since he didn't appear to have particularly great stuff. Well, it's pretty obvious the league has either caught up to him, or his luck has simply run out. I think he can be a decent #4 or #5 starter who can be pencilled in for 10 wins and an ERA in the 4.25-to-4.75 range, but we just witnessed the overall best year he's going to have in the majors...he's not going to get any better.

As for Perez, what you see it what you get. He's got great stuff, but his mechanics are terrible. He'll tease everyone with occasional sustained brillance, but he'll always be mentally fragile and will never be able to maintain consistency over the course of a full season. Petersen did an amazing job rescuing Perez from the scrap heap, but I think he's squeezed all he can out of Perez. He'll never be anything more than a solid #3 (12-14 wins, 3.50-4.00 ERA) or a shaky #2.

Beltran is the king of cosmetic stats. Yes, he's cracked 100 RBI again, but this guy never fills me up with confidence when he comes up to the plate...most of the time I'll see him coming up with runners on in a key spot, and pretty much every time I think to myself "Here comes nothing." Sure enough, he either strikes out or comes up empty. Sorry, but if I'm an opposing team and I see him at the plate in a big spot, he doesn't scare me at all. He's not a bad player, but he's clearly not the kind of player that you build a lineup around...he disappoints far more that he delivers.
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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#62 NJDevs4978

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Posted 19 September 2007 - 03:41 PM

I especially liked that move you made in the fifth inning, where you stood there with that stupid look on your face while everyone else but you knew your starter had absolutely nothing. I guess it was more important to you to try to let an undeserving John Maine get the win than it was to try to end the free-fall your team finds itself in.


I have to say I pretty much agreed with all of your post, good way of putting it in regards to Beltran. Although he did hit a big HR on Sunday that our four-letter words in the pen (Mota and Sosa) gave right back with an assist from Castillo.

About this particular point, this is one of my main gripes with Willie. As a poster on another site said, he gets too concerned with looking for innings from pitchers instead of outs. Hell he should be quicker on the trigger finger in this month if any month, not only with expanded rosters but also because the games are so important. But starting Lawrence and leaving Pelfrey till tonight just to give Pedro another day of rest showed the overconfidence that's permeated the Mets all year long.

Edited by Hasan4978, 19 September 2007 - 03:43 PM.

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"The Devils have high standards, that's the difference. We have a standard to live up to every year, and a couple of teams in our area don't have the standards we do." - Pat Burns

The New Jersey Devils win Stanley Cups everywhere:
-NHL record for most road wins in the playoffs - 10-1 in '95 and 10-2 in '00
-NHL record for most home wins in the playoffs - 12-1 in '03

#63 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 19 September 2007 - 04:22 PM

I have to say I pretty much agreed with all of your post, good way of putting it in regards to Beltran. Although he did hit a big HR on Sunday that our four-letter words in the pen (Mota and Sosa) gave right back with an assist from Castillo.

About this particular point, this is one of my main gripes with Willie. As a poster on another site said, he gets too concerned with looking for innings from pitchers instead of outs. Hell he should be quicker on the trigger finger in this month if any month, not only with expanded rosters but also because the games are so important. But starting Lawrence and leaving Pelfrey till tonight just to give Pedro another day of rest showed the overconfidence that's permeated the Mets all year long.


Oh, it's not like Beltran's going to fail in every big spot. He's got too much talent not to come through once in a while. But here's how I feel about Beltran: He's the kind of guy who shows up to the ballpark and doesn't really care all that much whether his team wins or loses, not the way guys like David Wright and Paul LoDuca do. I don't think he cares about greatness or reaching his full potential and is perfectly content with being pretty good to good. If you ever confronted him on that, he'll spit his stats out at you and say something along the lines of "What's the problem, I hit .280, I cracked 30 HRs and 100 RBI, I can't do it all." In a way he's not entirely wrong, but I just don't think winning and losing affects him at all...as soon as the game's over, he just showers, dresses, leaves the ballpark and goes on his merry way...no matter how bad the loss, I don't think he ever loses a minute's sleep over it. For some reason I see Beltran and think he's got a "so what?" mentality...I just don't see the passion, fire and drive like I do with David Wright, a guy who clearly wants to get better at all facets of his game.

Another guy who's really regressed is Reyes. I know he can be an electrifying runner on the basepaths, but the stolen bases have really overshadowed what has been a bad year for Reyes, especially in the second half. This guy never drives in a run anymore, and reminds of the Reyes of two years ago (far too aggressive at the plate, not doing whatever he can to get on base). Last year he drove in 80 runs and batted .300...he might get his average back up to .300 if he gets really hot, but his power numbers are way down from last year (10 HR, 50 RBI). Maybe he's been reading too many articles about how observers think he's going to be the next great player and is trying to do too much as a result.

And at this point, with the team free-falling, Willie's gotta do whatever it takes to win that game last night. Screw Maine and trying to get him through 5 innings to get him his 15th win...last night's game was a must-have. Like I posted, every single person except Willie knew that Maine had absolutely zilch on the mound last night.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 19 September 2007 - 04:25 PM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#64 nmigliore

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Posted 19 September 2007 - 07:48 PM

Top 5, 4-3 Mets.. not exactly great pitching from Pelfrey IMO he seems to constantly allow a base runner..
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#65 NJDevs4978

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Posted 19 September 2007 - 09:31 PM

Finally moved the damn magic number! :doh1:

For once the maligned pen held up, Sosa with five clutch outs and Heilman and Wagner finished it off. Pelfrey was butt-ugly but three straight wins isn't bad considering where he started the season and the fact he hasn't had a full year in the bigs yet. Reyes even had a couple of hits, how about that :P
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"The Devils have high standards, that's the difference. We have a standard to live up to every year, and a couple of teams in our area don't have the standards we do." - Pat Burns

The New Jersey Devils win Stanley Cups everywhere:
-NHL record for most road wins in the playoffs - 10-1 in '95 and 10-2 in '00
-NHL record for most home wins in the playoffs - 12-1 in '03

#66 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 06:24 AM

Finally!

Nice efforts from David Wright, Jose Reyes (it's about friggin' time Jose!) and Mr. 23-Game-Hitting-Streak Moises Alou. And in what comes as a huge surprise, Carlos "Where's My Paycheck?" Beltran, in one of the most important games of the year for these Mets, goes 0-5. Captain Clutch comes through again...useless piece of sh!t.
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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#67 nmigliore

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 08:46 AM

Alou is clearly the top hitter for the Mets right now.. Maybe Willie should exercise the idea of moving Alou up in the line-up, especially if Carlos B has another bad outing vs the Fish tonight
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LETS GO METS
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"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#68 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 09:06 AM

Alou is clearly the top hitter for the Mets right now.. Maybe Willie should exercise the idea of moving Alou up in the line-up, especially if Carlos B has another bad outing vs the Fish tonight


I agree...but Willie's not one to think outside the box. He'll feed you the "Carlos is our cleanup hitter, he'll get it going :blahblah: :blahblah: :blahblah:" company line. I'm sure Carlos' salary has nothing to do with his being entrenched in the #4 spot right now. (riiiiiight) Just be prepared for a big strikeout with runners on the corners with the Mets down by a pair...because that's what Carlos does best.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 20 September 2007 - 09:08 AM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#69 Devils731

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 09:34 AM

The fact that Alou has hit great the past 20 games doesn't mean anything when it comes to hitting in tonight's game. I know it makes sense to say it does because he is hot or in a groove but there has never been any evidence that being hot or cold going into a game has any affect on how a player does in the current game. Nobody does this but the efficient offense is actually lined up using the highest OPS+(not regular OPS) down to the player with the lowest.

Edit: Now that isn't to say lineups shouldn't change, pitching matchups matter and also there can be times when you re-evaluate how good hitters are. Delgado would be a good example of a hitter falling in the lineup not because he is cold but just because he isn't the hitter he once was anymore but that takes time to evaluate.

Edited by Devils731, 20 September 2007 - 09:35 AM.

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#70 nmigliore

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 12:22 PM

The fact that Alou has hit great the past 20 games doesn't mean anything when it comes to hitting in tonight's game. I know it makes sense to say it does because he is hot or in a groove but there has never been any evidence that being hot or cold going into a game has any affect on how a player does in the current game.


So that means line-ups are pointless and it doesn't matter if the pitcher bats first or reyes bats 8th.. right.. and its not like Alou is just getting 1-hit a game, hes getting 2-3 hits a game so hes definitely on a hot streak..
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LETS GO METS
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- Jim Leyland

#71 Devils731

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 12:33 PM

Hot and cold streaks only make sense in retrospect, there hasn't been any way of measuring a players "hotness" and showing that to have any affect on the players performance going forward.

I didn't say lineups made no difference, but they don't make an enormous difference. The players in the lineup are much more important than the way they're arranged. If you want an optimal lineup though you use OPS+ to order everyone which would put almost every pitcher 9th in the lineup. This will make the most efficient use of your outs with some consideration to the players power.
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Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

-Terry Goodkind


Sex Panther cologne -- 50 percent of the time, it works every time.

-Anchorman

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best time is now.

-Anonymous

Keeper of Section 212-213's wayward step

#72 nmigliore

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 01:44 PM

I disagree, having a certain batting order means everything.. take the Mets for instance - reyes leads off, say he gets a single.. He'll end up stealing 2nd with the very patient Castillo at bat 80% of the time, or Castillo will lay down and bunt and get a single out of it.. Just right there - first 2 batters and you can easily have a runner at 3rd by the time the 3rd batter is up.
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LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#73 Devils731

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 02:03 PM

Having a certain batting order means fairly little. You gave Reyes a base hit and he reaches base about 36% of the time so 2/3 of the time you're situation already can't happen. Castillo is a little under 1/3 so 2/3 of the time he makes an out as well. Reyes only steals a base a little under 80% of the time. So yes you've come up with a scenario that looks good but what if Beltran leads off the game with a home run, is that not a better scenario? Designing your team around situations that barely happen probably isn't the best way to design a team. Reyes leads off once a game for sure, that is it, any other team he is just the random rolling of the lineup like every other player.

Anyway, here using the formula (OBP*1.4)+SLG is the Mets most efficient lineup based on this years stats. This is the lineup that will make the least outs while still account for power.

Wright
Alou
Beltran
Reyes
Green
Delgado
Castillo
Lo Duca

The key is you put the guys who are the least likely to get out at the top of your lineup. The more at bats your team takes over the course of a game the more likely they are to score runs. There is a slight adjustment due to power but that only cause Beltran to move up 1 spot and Castillo to drop a bunch.
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Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

-Terry Goodkind


Sex Panther cologne -- 50 percent of the time, it works every time.

-Anchorman

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best time is now.

-Anonymous

Keeper of Section 212-213's wayward step

#74 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 03:31 PM

Devils731...I think you're trying to reinvent the wheel here. There's a reason that ideal batting orders (for years) have speed and OB% guys on top, power guys who hit well with runners on in the middle, and guys on the bottom who aren't as good as the 1-6 guys, but can pitch in on occasion and clear the pitcher's spot so the pitcher's not leading off the following inning.

Why in God's name would you want David Wright, a great situational hitter who's batting .309 with runners in scoring position, coming up after the seventh, eighth, and ninth (usually the pitcher) place hitters? You basically want a guy who hits great with runners on base to come up in his first at-bat with no one on base, and then come up in subsequent at-bats with guys batting ahead of him who aren't known for their ability to get on base? You've pretty much guaranteed that he's going to come up to the plate with at least one out (save for the first inning), because he'll always have the pitcher (likely for at least two of his ABs) hitting ahead of him. And then you want Jose Reyes, a guy who has far less power and is hitting just .271 with RISP, to bat CLEANUP?! And he'll have guys like Alou (not known for his speed) and Beltran (who doesn't steal bases like he used to) blocking him from doing what he does best: taking extra bases and stealing. That's part of the problem with your lineup...you're not accounting for situational hitting ability and the fact that some players run a whole lot faster on the basepaths than others.

Other problems:
Other than David Wright's ABs being wasted by having him come to the plate with far less chances to drive in runs, by putting Moises Alou behind him, you're begging for lots of DPs. David has decent speed, but any infield ground ball that is hit with any velocity is sure to be a DP. This pretty much ensures that any inning the pitcher comes up first (usually an automatic out) with David reaching first base and Alou hitting an infield grounder will amount to a 1-2-3 inning even though a runner reached base. That decreases the staters's pitch count, making it less likely that the starter will give way to the bullpen. As we know, with so many "major league" bullpens being weak spots, and teams being more hung up on pitch counts than they've ever been, the objective of today's lineups is to drive up the SP's pitch count, get him out of the game by the 5th or 6th inning, and then go to work on the bullpen.

I know you're trying to take a radical approach to building a lineup, and I can appreciate the fact that you're trying to think outside the box, but most fans and baseball minds would laugh that lineup out of the building.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 20 September 2007 - 03:34 PM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#75 nmigliore

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 04:34 PM

Yeah players get used to hitting in their spots, like Reyes always leading off.. Castillo is a perfect 2nd batter as well, hes very smart and hes someone the Mets have been looking for all year really.. not only do him and Reyes do great together batting behind each other, but they make a great pairing in the infield, Castillo turns DPs SO well.. But thats sorta drifting off topic; Im just trying to say players are used to their spot in the lineup, especially with leadoff hitters like Reyes.. seeing him bat 4th (cleanup) as you have him really is just odd..
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LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#76 Devils731

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 04:42 PM

I know you're trying to take a radical approach to building a lineup, and I can appreciate the fact that you're trying to think outside the box, but most fans and baseball minds would laugh that lineup out of the building.


That's where you're wrong. The trend in baseball is to go towards a more analytical approach towards who plays and who doesn't and eventually that will start changing lineups as well. I was over-emphasizing the point to show what I was talking about, in reality the difference between a guy like Reyes adjusted OPS and Wrights adjusted OPS isn't that great so you can really do waht you want between the 2 of them. At the end of the day using out most efficiently is what you want do with your lineup so the only really bad part of the Mets lineup is batting Lo Duca or Castillo in the 2 hole because both are just very unproductive hitters so getting them extra at bats isn't a good idea.

On the topic of lineups not mattering, the difference between a 300 hitter and a 276 hitter is 1 base hit ever 2 weeks. So arranging your lineup when there is such little difference between that 300 and 276 hitter, in terms of base hits, makes the lineups formation have little affect. A badly arranged lineup may cost you 20 runs a season compared to an optimal lineup but an almost optimal lineup like the Mets have used most of the year probably only costs like 3 or 4 runs, which is such little difference that it really doesn't matter at the end of the day.

For years the accepted way to measure a players ability was batting average, HRs, and RBIs and now we know it's much better to look at a players OBP and SLG. Just because something has been accepted for many years doesn't make it correct. Convential wisdom says teams should use their best closer in the 9th inning when up by 3 runs but not in the 7th when up 1 and the bases loaded. That makes no sense either but because the closer has always been used exclusively in save situations it will continue to be done that way.

As far as RISP players, over their career, tend to all get about the same increase in their BA when runners in scoring position. It only gets funky year to year because the number of plate appearances isn't that vast in each season. RISP batting average isn't a great thing to base anything on. Get the play with the best OBP and SLG up to the plate is much more productive than a guy who just got luckier than normal within a season with RISP.

I don't have all the research at hand but you guys should really check out some thing by Bill James, Rob Neyer, and some other Sabermatricians. You'd be surprised what you can learn by studying the statistics of baseball(the only sport that statistics tell almost the entire story). A lot of "accepted" practices don't hold up so well when they're examined.

Actually a great read for Mets fans, in regards to Reyes, has to do with SBs. To be adding value to a team you need to steal, I believe, 78% of the time succesfully or more. Anything else and the extra outs you are making is hurting the team more than the extra bases you're stealing. Anyway, they went back and examined decades worth of baseball and the league average for stolen base success is always around 78%. One of the weird instances where baseball managers, without knowing it, were ending up at the exact same spot statistics said they should end up.

Edited by Devils731, 20 September 2007 - 04:46 PM.

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#77 Devils731

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 04:50 PM

As we know, with so many "major league" bullpens being weak spots, and teams being more hung up on pitch counts than they've ever been, the objective of today's lineups is to drive up the SP's pitch count, get him out of the game by the 5th or 6th inning, and then go to work on the bullpen.


The best way to do that would be to put your most effective hitters up as often as possible. Not arrange your lineup for situations that may or may not arrive. I can guarentee that my best hitter is my best hitter, I can't guarentee that Castillo comes up with an opportunity to sacrifice Reyes over.
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Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

-Terry Goodkind


Sex Panther cologne -- 50 percent of the time, it works every time.

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The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best time is now.

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#78 Triumph

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 05:31 PM

Baseball Between The Numbers, put out by Baseball Prospectus, is a good primer to all these ideas.

They prove, among other things:

Rickey Henderson's 130 SB in 1982 (?) was not much more valuable than Pete Incaviglia's 3 SB in 1986

Joe Carter was one of the worst regulars in any lineup throughout the 1980s

Lineup order matters very little. 731 has failed to mention (I think) that on average, your #1 hitter gets 30 more PA a year than your #2 hitter, and so on down the lineup. Thus, you should put your best hitter #1, second best #2, etc. Major league managers do not do this, but their organization of the lineup is the next best thing (aside from foolishness like Castillo/Lo Duca in the 2 hole, Damon/Cabrera leading off for the Yankees, etc.)

Unfortunately, reading about these things just makes you shout at the TV more when your manager brings in Guillermo Mota in a high-leverage situation, sacrifice bunts with very good hitters, a player 'gets the job done' by grounding to the right side, etc. But it's all very interesting nonetheless. I really wish something similar would be done for hockey, but it would be much more difficult. There's good work being done with football, and hockey's even less quantifiable than that IMO.

Edited by Triumph, 20 September 2007 - 05:32 PM.

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#79 NJDevs4978

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 06:57 PM

There's a reason why 'best hitters' don't automatically bat first and second. Because often the team's best hitter has power and power pretty much goes to waste if you're hitting with nobody on (or with the #8 and 9 hitters batting before you, who are always going to be the worst hitters). Just like stolen bases would go to waste if you had Jose Reyes batting eighth.

And I personally like Castillo at two, both because of his bunting ability and because he works the count. Often you like your top two guys to have speed, see pitches so that the guys batting behind them know the pitcher's velocity and stuff that day, there's a reason they're called table-setters. Plus he's a good enough hitter on his own that he doesn't need Reyes on base to be effective.

I do think SB are valuable, they're a big reason the Mets have scored runs some days when they haven't hit particularly well. But SB's are only as valuable as the lineup makes them, you can get all the SB's you want if you don't have the players to drive in those players they're useless...but if you do have a good lineup, SB's can often score a run with one hit instead of two. Plus just the threat of the SB means more fastballs to hitters at the plate.

Say you're the Cardinals and you batted Pujols first he'd A - get a lot of solo HR's and B - get a lot of walks because you can pitch around him with worse hitters batting behind him. You can't always pitch around the slugger if there are say runners on first and second and you're trying to get a DP.

Ideally you want good hitters and runners at 1-2, your great hitters at 3-4 where they can drive in more runs, good hitters at 5-6 backing them up and of course your weaker hitters in the back of the order.

Edited by Hasan4978, 20 September 2007 - 07:00 PM.

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#80 nmigliore

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Posted 20 September 2007 - 08:39 PM

4-3 Marlins.. Glavine blew a 3-0 lead.. I really hate getting these early leads now, seriously.. Top 8 now, Wright on first (0 out) with Beltran up.. Lets see if he can do SOME-thing..

edit: NOPE! Guess what? He struck out on a breaking pitch, what else is new.. All it takes is a few pitches breaking down into the dirt to easily strikeout Carlos B..

edit 2: okay gotta hope for a good 9th now.. yeaaa Lo Duca lead-off double!! and Carlos Gomez is coming in to pinch-run for him.. so far so good, 0 out with a runner in scoring position (2nd base).. LETS GO METS!

edit 3: Phillies lead Nats 7-6 in top 8th wow.. way to blow a 6-2 lead stupid Nats.. and gomez just beat the run to 3rd!!! Runners at the corners with 0 out!! gotta love Gomez's speed!!

edit 4: bases loaded, 0 out.. Reyes up.. COME ON JOSE!!!

edit 5: and reyes is retired for the 1st out on a strikeout.. ick.. now they are a play away from winning.. come on..

edit 6: YES!!! ANDERSON BABYYYYY .. MARLOONNNN BABYYY


edit 7: okay so end of the top 9th, excellent rally boys!! 7-4 mets.. but wagner isn't warming up.. ehh..? anyways damn man Marlon Anderson is a beast!! Also FINALLY beltran did something, he got an RBI single lol to make it 7-4!

edit 8: i give up.. talky talky wagner isn't available to close a game and sosa blows it.. 7-7 now but the BP has been drained (we only have humber/collazo and sele left.. )

Edited by nmigliore, 20 September 2007 - 09:52 PM.

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