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Lou and Sutter are delusional


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#321 Beezer34

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Posted 05 May 2008 - 10:01 PM

You're missing my point. I'm not going against the fact that the losses of 23 & 28 were not immense, they certainly were. If anything I am agreeing with you. My point is the TEAM REMAINED COMPETITIVE despite the lose. 6th in the league!!! :horse: Saying it was due to the schedule, and the weak teams, and the shootout, the overtime, the luck, the aforementioned, the moon, the stars, etc, is silly. (AND unfair to the players.) Let's cut the crap, and give credit where credit's due here. Every team profits from these things, we didn't benefit more than any other team. "The Devils had more luck because of overtime than the avarage team?" Are we being real here? Are we now keeping count of lucky occurrences durring the season as the basis of how lucky we were -vs- how much skill we had\have? The Devils had 4 losses from the shootout all year. (ranked 22nd in the NHL) If someone here knows any special unfair advantage that we had over any other NHL club, please enlighten me.

Having AHLer's Mike Mottau, Sheldon Brookbank, and Andy Greene is not fair to blame them, its not their fault; they were in over their heads in the lineup on a nightly basis.


Where did they play on a nightly basis? Brookbank played 44 games, and Greene logged 59. Mottau was the only one who played almost the entire season, and he did great. He finished 3rd in points of the d'men.

The only reasons they made the playoffs at all were the emergence of Johnny Oduya and Paul Martin, the surprising competence of Mike Mottau, and playing Martin Brodeur every single night.


Oduya & Martin were expected to have a good year this season. To say we soley made the playoffs based on them? And playing Marty as much as he played aint no big advantage anymore. (not at his age anyway) He ended the year with the 2nd most losses in his career this season. We actually could've benifited if Weekes played a bit more.

Edited by Beezer34, 05 May 2008 - 10:03 PM.

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#322 Masked Fan

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Posted 05 May 2008 - 10:13 PM

...and who was expecting them to go further in the playoffs?

Me. :saddevil:

I thought the Devs could've made it to the SCF's as long as we didn't have to go thru the RumpRangers. Who just had our number THIS year.
I gave us better odds against every other team in the East, even the Habs, who I didn't think would be able to ride Price far.

vs. Pens 4-4

vs. Sens 2-2

vs. Flyhers 6-2

vs. Habs 1-3

vs. Da Bears 3-1

vs. Crapitals 2-2


Well no every season the Cup isn't won is a TOTAL failure

... reality.... a dish rarely served on NJDevs.com

now throw THAT up as a tag line!!!!! B )

BOTH of these are GEMS.

The surprise to me was that Biron has been as good as he has been. Or, is it that Price simply ran out of gas?

Ding Ding Ding! Price could not hold up. Biron is going to get torched by the Penguins!!

DOO be DOO be DOOOOOOO!!!


I could put up 50 points with AO on my line.

at least!
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#323 Beezer34

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Posted 05 May 2008 - 10:33 PM

Contradiction. If we needed to make changes in order to have a successful Cup run, that means this year's team wasn't built properly, therefore they will need to be in some sort of building phase if they intend to do better next year.

If you meant to say REbuilding, in which everything is torn down and the organization rebuilds from the ground up (hence the name), then I would agree that the Devils won't even think about rebuilding until Brodeur hangs 'em up.


I didn't contradict myself, I was responding to the post.

I know its a broken record, but its still true... this was a rebuilding year.


To me, the terms: "Rebuilding & Building" are synonymous. I see how you could've misinterpreted though. :P
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#324 Triumph

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Posted 05 May 2008 - 11:00 PM

You're missing my point. I'm not going against the fact that the losses of 23 & 28 were not immense, they certainly were. If anything I am agreeing with you. My point is the TEAM REMAINED COMPETITIVE despite the lose. 6th in the league!!! :horse: Saying it was due to the schedule, and the weak teams, and the shootout, the overtime, the luck, the aforementioned, the moon, the stars, etc, is silly. (AND unfair to the players.) Let's cut the crap, and give credit where credit's due here. Every team profits from these things, we didn't benefit more than any other team. "The Devils had more luck because of overtime than the avarage team?" Are we being real here? Are we now keeping count of lucky occurrences durring the season as the basis of how lucky we were -vs- how much skill we had\have? The Devils had 4 losses from the shootout all year. (ranked 22nd in the NHL) If someone here knows any special unfair advantage that we had over any other NHL club, please enlighten me.


yes, we're being real. the devils were 15-7 in overtime this season, the second-best percentage in the league behind Edmonton. i don't think that's a repeatable skill. just as an example, the lightning were the best shootout team in the league last year, this season they were one of the worst. Now with Brodeur in nets the Devils do have an edge, but they're not going to be 66% in OT going forward. Sorry, just not happening. Plus the fact that 22 of their 82 games got to overtime is more than most teams.

Where did they play on a nightly basis? Brookbank played 44 games, and Greene logged 59. Mottau was the only one who played almost the entire season, and he did great. He finished 3rd in points of the d'men.


Since when is finishing 3rd automatically great? Mottau was passable. He was -14 away from the Rock and was exposed post All-Star break, posting a terrible +/- mark there too. The whole 3rd pairing wasn't great, but neither is anyone's third pairing. The real weakness was Mottau, who was just brutally exposed when Sutter couldn't put him in favorable situations.

Oduya & Martin were expected to have a good year this season. To say we soley made the playoffs based on them? And playing Marty as much as he played aint no big advantage anymore. (not at his age anyway) He ended the year with the 2nd most losses in his career this season. We actually could've benifited if Weekes played a bit more.


Huh? This doesn't make any sense. So just because Brodeur had more losses than other seasons, it means he played bad? No, Brodeur was just fine all season long - what separated this team from a bottom-feeder. Brodeur had his best season of his career. He had more losses because he played more games and the team surrounding him was worse than any one previous.

Oduya was a healthy scratch in several playoff games last season and couldn't seem to handle the speed of the NHL - who was expecting after his first half performance that he would be a +20 in the second half, and contribute a lot of points as well?

This wasn't a year to win it all. This was a year to hopefully make the playoffs and get some of the younger players some experience. Winning a round would be considered a major success. New Jersey got an unfavorable matchup and couldn't do anything about it. But guys like Oduya really progressed - next season is the time.

Edited by Triumph, 05 May 2008 - 11:02 PM.

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#325 Beezer34

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Posted 05 May 2008 - 11:25 PM

yes, we're being real. the devils were 15-7 in overtime this season, the second-best percentage in the league behind Edmonton. i don't think that's a repeatable skill. just as an example, the lightning were the best shootout team in the league last year, this season they were one of the worst. Now with Brodeur in nets the Devils do have an edge, but they're not going to be 66% in OT going forward. Sorry, just not happening. Plus the fact that 22 of their 82 games got to overtime is more than most teams.


How does going 15-7 in overtime mean we got lucky? Those 15 wins were 15 wins, they weren't dirty points. Dirty points are points given when a team loses. We earned every single one of those points.

Since when is finishing 3rd automatically great? Mottau was passable. He was -14 away from the Rock and was exposed post All-Star break, posting a terrible +/- mark there too. The whole 3rd pairing wasn't great, but neither is anyone's third pairing.


My comment on Mottau was in response to yours! I (thought I) was agreeing with you. You were the one who credited him as one of "the only reasons why we even made the playoffs."
--------------------------------------------------------

The only reasons they made the playoffs at all were the emergence of Johnny Oduya, Paul Martin, and the surprising competence of Mike Mottau

The real weakness was Mottau, who was just brutally exposed when Sutter couldn't put him in favorable situations.

--------------------------------------------------------
So please tell me, which stance do you take? Because I don't have a clue in what the hell you're talking about anymore. Was he the teams real weakness, or surprisingly competent. Or do you not know the meaning of the word competence?

Just because Brodeur had more losses than other seasons, it means he played bad?


Let me know when\where I said in any of my posts that Brodeur played and\or had a bad season. I said "he (Marty) playing as much as he did was not an advantage" Not an advatage does not = he played bad. You're putting words in my mouth dude.



FYI: *Competence: (n) The standardized talent for an individual to properly perform a specific job. A combination of knowledge, skills, and behavior utilized to improve performance. More generally, competence is the state or quality of being adequately or well qualified, having the ability to perform a specific role.

Edited by Beezer34, 06 May 2008 - 12:33 AM.

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#326 Triumph

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Posted 06 May 2008 - 12:25 AM

How does going 15-7 in overtime mean we got lucky? Those 15 wins were 15 wins, they weren't dirty points. Dirty points are points given when a team loses. We earned every single one of those points.


lol well seeing as how you don't understand statistical variance i should just close the register at this point. you do understand that the devils won't go 15-7 in overtime next year, right? here, i'll set the over/under at 66% - you can have the over, after all, new jersey did BETTER than that this year, it's a cinch! please. new jersey's expectation in overtime is probably more like 12-10. So there's 3 points there. I'm too lazy to dig up the hockey sabermetric links that suggest new jersey played over its head - i'll just say that i think it's true and think sutter did a great job of accentuating strengths while hiding negatives.

So please tell me, which one is it? Or do you not know what the word competence means?


the -14 away from home ignores the +4 at home. +4 at home is competent. however, mottau is the kind of thing that a team is going to expose over the course of 7 games, and he was exposed. he is slow and horrid 1 on 1. that said, he was a passable #4 D. he cannot be back in that role next year or the devils may as well just give the stanley cup to another team.

Let me know when\where I said in any of my posts that Brodeur played and\or had a bad season. I said "he (Marty) playing as much as he did was not an advantage" You're putting words in my mouth dude.


Uh. You said Brodeur had the 2nd most losses in his career and should've been sat more AS A RESULT OF THAT STATISTIC. That statistic is meaningless.
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#327 Masked Fan

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Posted 06 May 2008 - 02:34 AM

To me, the terms: "Rebuilding & Building" are synonymous. I see how you could've misinterpreted though. :P

Well, they're not.

building = adding new talent to old talent as you knock away the chaff off your improving team.

REbuilding = having NO old talent left and just adding new talent as you clear out the rubble of your once great team.
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#328 SS#4-Life

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 01:56 PM

jeez looks like i missed the big battle here huh. reading through this topic is like watching hells angels. looks like a dog fight. i agree the devs were better off not doing anything. this team was just not that good
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#329 Jerrydevil

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 02:18 PM

lol well seeing as how you don't understand statistical variance i should just close the register at this point.


As a poker player, I certainly understand statistical variance ... but I only like it when it's a hot streak. :hijack:

Sorry for the hijack.

But I will slightly disagree with Triumph. You can mitigate statistical variance if you're better than the competition. And Marty's very good in the shootout.
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#330 SC Devs Fan

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 02:53 PM

jeez looks like i missed the big battle here huh. reading through this topic is like watching hells angels. looks like a dog fight. i agree the devs were better off not doing anything. this team was just not that good

To play Devils advocate... then should we have been sellers at the deadline?
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#331 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 03:07 PM

To play Devils advocate... then should we have been sellers at the deadline?


i'd say no. I think the Devils were the perfect 'middle of the road' team at the deadline. Definitely not bad enough to sell off the team, but just not good enough that they were 'one piece away' either.
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#332 Beezer34

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 04:46 PM

As a poker player, I certainly understand statistical variance ... but I only like it when it's a hot streak. :hijack:

But I will slightly disagree with Triumph. You can mitigate statistical variance if you're better than the competition. And Marty's very good in the shootout.


Still trying to figure that response out. I asked for a clarification, I got saber metric statistical variance instead. :blink: Tomorrow I'm gonna learn quantum physics to further understand why our powerplay was so ineffective.

Edited by Beezer34, 08 May 2008 - 11:12 PM.

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#333 Triumph

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 04:58 PM

here it is simpler then beezer:

the devils will not go 15-7 in overtime next year. yes, they earned every one of the goals they scored. just as all of alex rodriguez's home runs were hit over the wall last year. but alex rodriguez, even if he had stayed healthy, was very unlikely to repeat that season. what i am saying is that overtime and the shootout are virtually a coin flip, and the devils won 68% of their flips.

Jerry:

I certainly think New Jersey has an edge in OT, but 66% is just not repeatable. I think, and I could be wrong, that Brodeur's shootout save percentage is one of the highest - though going longer in shootouts increases one's percentage and the Devils often win them quick.

Edited by Triumph, 08 May 2008 - 04:59 PM.

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#334 Beezer34

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 05:07 PM

here it is simpler then beezer:

the devils will not go 15-7 in overtime next year.


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Thank You Karnack! Tell me, did your saber metric statistical variance predict that the 2007 last place (30th) Flyers would be 4 wins away from the Stanley Cup finals a year later? What was the percentage (over\under) there?

*ALSO: -I want to know the pick 6 numbers for Friday... -who ends up getting the Cup in 2011... -and does Hilary really end up winning?

Edited by Beezer34, 08 May 2008 - 11:12 PM.

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#335 Triumph

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 05:14 PM

with their trade deadline and summer moves it wasn't at all out of the question that the flyers would be in the ECF. it was a question of whether they could gel and whether Biron could hold up.

anyway once again i put it to you - we can bet on whether the Devils' record will be better than 15-7 next year. The last two seasons, New Jersey was 13-9, making their total record in OT since the shootout has been established 41-25. That's 62% - I still think that's a touch high and will come down as Brodeur ages and goalies cheat on Brian Gionta's one shootout move.

so i guess predicting anything is useless and we may as well give up. the devils could win the cup next year or they could finish last. no idea which, it's just totally randomized.
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#336 Beezer34

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 05:20 PM

jeez looks like i missed the big battle here huh. reading through this topic is like watching hells angels. looks like a dog fight.


...it was a really good topic, until it became deformed... and turned into a last word game. Is there any wonder how he tallied 13,000 posts after reading this exchange?

Edited by Beezer34, 08 May 2008 - 11:11 PM.

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#337 Triumph

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 07:25 PM

Thank You Karnack! Tell me, did your saber metric statistical variance predict that the 2007 last place (30th) Flyers would be 4 wins away from the Stanley Cup finals a year later? What was the percentage (over\under) there?

*ALSO: I need the pick 6 numbers for Friday, who ends up getting the Cup in 2011, and does Hilary really end up winning?


go ahead and have the last word based on this.
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#338 ice dog

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 09:45 PM

all i gotta say is Rafalski is awesome on the red wings.

why Lou did not lock him up long term before he went UFA is INSANE.

He could have had him cheaper than what the wings gave him...

he would have bit at 4.5 a year for 4 years. the wings insane 5 years at 6 mil would never have been thought of.

watching him excel tonight with the wings just brings it all home...

almost as big a mistake as the 3 M's... :mellow:
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#339 CRASHER

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 10:35 PM

Rafalski is like Scottie Pippen in a lotta ways.... when he has great players around him (Stevens, Lidstrom, etc) around him... he looks better... but when he's asked to carry the mail... he trips early and often....

so don't think it's as big a mistake as it's not....

I mean Martin emerging would help, but that's only a good player... not a great one
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#340 SatansDevils

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Posted 08 May 2008 - 10:35 PM

One of many mistakes Lou has done over the years. Rafalski should have remained here in New Jersey. Lou could have given him $4-4.5 million and he would have stayed. Detroit is over paying him now at $5 million a season.
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