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#21 nmigliore

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Posted 01 March 2008 - 11:04 PM

delgado was a nightmare last season, he's not a 'huge loss'.


That statement all rides on how he fairs this season. If he plays the way he did last season, he is indeed no big loss.
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#22 SteveStevens

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 01:28 PM

Its no secret that power hitters lose there umph all together over 1 or 2 seasons, whih pretty much happened to Delgado last season. If he cant hit for average he is a lose.
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#23 Triumph

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 04:01 PM

The manager is not the issue with the Mets - though Willie probably cost the Mets 2 or 3 games last year.

The Mets are in trouble because they are an old team and they're not getting younger. Carlos Delgado is declining quickly. Moises Alou was playing when Bush I was in the White House. Carlos Beltran isn't getting better. Reyes and Wright are young but both of them are close to their peak. Luis Castillo is bad and not getting better. There's a theme here.

Oliver Perez, if he repeats last season, will get paid crazy money, which the Mets should not pay - but they don't have an adequate replacement for him. Pedro Martinez does not have much time left in his career - he could retire at the end of the season, who knows how it will play out with him. El Duque is at least 45 years old. That's 3/5th of the Mets starting rotation this year, and the alternative is probably paying some medicore arms in free agency to help them out, but these signings are typically among the worst in baseball. Furthermore, their bullpen is not young - bullpens get better not by free agent signings, but by finding young arms to use at the end of games - the Mets lack these, and when they had them, they failed to use them (Heath Bell, Lindstrom, etc.).

Unless the Mets are prepared to spend a boatload of money and bench or somehow trade away some of these declining contracts, they will be an 80-90 win team in 2009 and beyond. They're too old and there's nothing coming on the horizon.
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#24 Devils Pride 26

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 04:20 PM

F-mart and Pelfrey should both be with the Mets next year. Not only that, we have a good bullpen prospect in this guy, Eddie Kunz. Heilman is also a bullpen product that came through the system. If Joe Smith can bounce back (big if) then we should be fine. Don't kid yourself, you know the Mets will spend money.
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#25 metallidevils

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 04:41 PM

The manager is not the issue with the Mets - though Willie probably cost the Mets 2 or 3 games last year.

The Mets are in trouble because they are an old team and they're not getting younger. Carlos Delgado is declining quickly. Moises Alou was playing when Bush I was in the White House. Carlos Beltran isn't getting better. Reyes and Wright are young but both of them are close to their peak. Luis Castillo is bad and not getting better. There's a theme here.

Oliver Perez, if he repeats last season, will get paid crazy money, which the Mets should not pay - but they don't have an adequate replacement for him. Pedro Martinez does not have much time left in his career - he could retire at the end of the season, who knows how it will play out with him. El Duque is at least 45 years old. That's 3/5th of the Mets starting rotation this year, and the alternative is probably paying some medicore arms in free agency to help them out, but these signings are typically among the worst in baseball. Furthermore, their bullpen is not young - bullpens get better not by free agent signings, but by finding young arms to use at the end of games - the Mets lack these, and when they had them, they failed to use them (Heath Bell, Lindstrom, etc.).

Unless the Mets are prepared to spend a boatload of money and bench or somehow trade away some of these declining contracts, they will be an 80-90 win team in 2009 and beyond. They're too old and there's nothing coming on the horizon.


Beltran may not be getting better, but I sure wouldn't mind him staying at this plateau for a while.
Reyes and Wright 'close to their peak'? True or not, why the hell would this possibly be a problem...same with Beltran, you're grasping at straws. Reyes sucked the second half, but I believe he'll be back to form.

Delgado couldn't possibly hurt the team worse than he did last year, and Castillo isn't terrible.

I'd almost guarantee that Pedro will be back, unless he has another injury. Even if we lose him and El Duque, it'll sure be awful anchoring a rotation around Santana and Maine!

I love how a team centered around Beltran, Reyes, Wright, Santana, and Maine is 'too old'. The Mets will probably pay Ollie the money too. Also, Omar has obviously shown that he's not afraid to spend money. This isn't the Devils that we're talking about. If the Mets lose Pedro and El Duque, Omar wouldn't be afraid to overpay Ollie.

Your entire post is wishful Yankee fan thinking - I expected better from you.

Edited by metallidevils, 02 March 2008 - 04:56 PM.

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#26 Triumph

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 04:46 PM

wishful Yankee thinking? I couldn't care less how the Mets do, and having them do well actually is good for intra-city rivalry.

The problem with the Mets is that too much of their team are replacement level batters. Brian Schneider. Luis Castillo. These are not young players, and they're not particularly good players, and they're not going to get better. I don't see any mention of them in your post. Ryan Church is okay, probably a league-average right fielder, but he's not getting better, and he sucks against lefties.

The Yankees went through a phase like this, and now I guess it's the Mets turn. Sure, the superstars are there, but around the edges, the Mets are getting terrible, and there's no remedy in sight. They will likely sign some free agent dross to try to compensate, but so many of the pitchers who hit free agency are just mediocre - and when you pay guys like Carlos Silva 10 million dollars, it impedes your team from actually improving at other positions. Oliver Perez, if he has another excellent season, will command Barry Zito money on the open market. Would that be 40 million for the top of the rotation? Then Maine hits free agency soon-ish too. And I haven't mentioned the bullpen, which features an aging closer, and few young arms to improve the situation. Duaner Sanchez is a hope and a prayer, and Joe Smith can't get left-handed batters out. Feliciano's awesome, but Randolph will continue to use him wrong. Schoenweis is terrible.

The Mets could win the World Series in 2008, so all this pessimism is slightly unjustified. Nonetheless, their 2009 and beyond looks mediocre - Omar Minaya hasn't shown he's particularly adept at signing free agents, and that's how the Mets are going to have to rebuild themselves.

Edited by Triumph, 02 March 2008 - 04:52 PM.

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#27 metallidevils

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 05:03 PM

The tentative lineup is:

Batting Order-
SS Jose Reyes
2B Jose Castillo
CF Carlos Beltran
3B David Wright
1B Carlos Delgado
LF Moises Alou
RF Ryan Church
C Brian Schneider

If Alou rapidly declines, or Church doesn't perform well, Chavez gets right back in the lineup, which is kind of what I want to happen anyway. Gotay will hopefully progress to be an everyday player by 2009, as well. The current lineup currently has 3 almost guaranteed allstars, Delgado who may or may not have a bounceback season, and two of (Alou/Church/Chavez) which I will be happy with. Castillo is obviously replaceable but again, not all that bad. Schneider sucks, but whatever. It's not an all-star lineup 1-9, but I'm happy with it. The only batter in the lineup who will probably show a decline from last season to this season, or this season to next season, is Alou (since delgado already sucks) but I believe that Chavez should be an everyday player anyway.

The pitching may be a problem, but I think that Omar is prepared to overpay to keep the guys here. Wags still has a few years left in him, Sanchez will be back, and there's a few guys in the minors, along with Smith, who will hopefully progress nicely. I understand your pitching worries but complaining about the starting lineup doesn't make much sense.

Willie blew a lot more than 2 or 3 games this season. He has shown total incompetence concerning his bullpen.

Edited by metallidevils, 02 March 2008 - 05:04 PM.

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#28 Triumph

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 05:21 PM

It is very difficult for a manager to blow that many games. A particular pitcher giving up a run in a certain situation is not much more likely than any other, provided they're both major league level pitchers. Furthermore, no manager has shown a sustainable ability to win one-run games, suggesting that most managerial moves are merely based on chance.

Endy Chavez is not a starting left fielder. He's not going to hit .300 with a .431 slugging again, as he did in 2006. He is a replacement-level player - if the Mets play him, that will make 3 replacement level players in their lineup, with Castillo and Schneider.

I don't see where Gotay fits in, given that Luis Castillo was signed for 4 years.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Delgado has a 46% chance of losing 20% of his performance next season - and you are right, he's already not good. Moises Alou has a similar percentage.

My complaint is not about 2008, where the Mets are undoubtedly the strongest team in the division and thus have the best chance of reaching the World Series. Beyond 2008, the Mets look like they are spiraling towards mediocrity - free agency just does not offer up big-name players to sign every year, the Mets are not likely to start taking huge luxury tax hits like the Yankees, and the Mets have an almost totally bare cupboard at the moment.
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#29 metallidevils

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 09:00 PM

The fact that the Mets have a replacement 2B and catcher is never going to be a make or break.

Also I honestly don't know why you're being so hard on Castillo. Having a decently speedy contact hitter behind Reyes isn't going to be a bad thing - Lo Duca was pretty successful there himself. There's worse second basemen out there.

There's also no indication that Chavez will decline that much from 2006. His slugging was down last year, but his average was on par, and he did only play 70 games.

Delgado already sucks, and him sucking more won't make a difference. Pulling a "46% chance of losing 20% performance" out of your ass is uncalled for here. I know you're a fan of sabermetrics, but let's get real.

Your assumptions are essentially that Beltran, Reyes, and Wright have all plateaued, everyone who can possibly detereorate will, we won't be able to hold on to any potential free agents, and there won't be any good free agents to sign.
Every team has a doomsday scenario in which they will 'spiral towards mediocrity'. I could probably take a few minutes and come up with one for the Yankees, but it's not necessary. Nothing you've stated so far has even remotely convinced myself or anyone else here that the Mets' last chance to win a WS is in 2008. They aren't going to be a case of the Devils, who seemingly this year must be burying money or throwing it off rooftops, because I have no idea where it all went. Obviously the Mets were run terribly in the 90s, but at least in the foreseeable future I don't see a team with a New York-like payroll being straight up uncompetitive.

Edited by metallidevils, 02 March 2008 - 09:00 PM.

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#30 Triumph

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 10:40 PM

The fact that the Mets have a replacement 2B and catcher is never going to be a make or break.


Uh, yes, it is. In fact, had the Mets gotten a few more runs out of either position last year, they're in the playoffs. They stuffed their best catcher on the bench and let Paul Lo Duca waste too many at bats, and Ruben Gotay was having a nice little season for himself before the Mets got Castillo.

Also I honestly don't know why you're being so hard on Castillo. Having a decently speedy contact hitter behind Reyes isn't going to be a bad thing - Lo Duca was pretty successful there himself. There's worse second basemen out there.


The Castillo contract is bad as Castillo is barely a league average 2nd baseman. He's also an out machine who routinely posts sub .400 slugging percentages - oh and did I mention he's over 30?

There's also no indication that Chavez will decline that much from 2006. His slugging was down last year, but his average was on par, and he did only play 70 games.


This matters why? You're speaking as though Chavez's 2007 is the aberration. If you look at Chavez's entire career, it's clearly 2006 that is the aberration. He cannot be a successful corner outfielder in major league baseball. He does not hit for enough power.

Delgado already sucks, and him sucking more won't make a difference. Pulling a "46% chance of losing 20% performance" out of your ass is uncalled for here. I know you're a fan of sabermetrics, but let's get real.


Delgado's VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) was between 10 and 15 runs last season. A decline means he's another batting black hole in the Mets' lineup, along with Schneider, Castillo, and the 50 games of Endy Chavez when Alou inevitably gets hurt. I didn't pull it out of my ass - that's what the book says. I could go on and on about what BP has gotten right while everyone else is wrong, but there's really no need - Delgado's likely to be terrible this year, and the Mets don't have a replacement lined up to play first base.

Your assumptions are essentially that Beltran, Reyes, and Wright have all plateaued, everyone who can possibly detereorate will, we won't be able to hold on to any potential free agents, and there won't be any good free agents to sign.


Wright will probably get a little better - so too with Reyes. But the free agency market is just like that in hockey - the great players rarely get to market, and when they do, they get ridiculously compensated. If the Mets hold on to Oliver Perez, he will cost a huge amount of money, and the only cheap arm they've got is Mike Pelfrey.

Every team has a doomsday scenario in which they will 'spiral towards mediocrity'. I could probably take a few minutes and come up with one for the Yankees, but it's not necessary. Nothing you've stated so far has even remotely convinced myself or anyone else here that the Mets' last chance to win a WS is in 2008. They aren't going to be a case of the Devils, who seemingly this year must be burying money or throwing it off rooftops, because I have no idea where it all went. Obviously the Mets were run terribly in the 90s, but at least in the foreseeable future I don't see a team with a New York-like payroll being straight up uncompetitive.


No one said they'd be straight up uncompetitive. Lucky for them they're in the fake league and none of the other organizations in the NL East are particularly smart or wealthy - they could parlay this Santana deal into 3 division titles in the next 5 years. I wouldn't bet on it.

Oh, and agreed about New Jersey - they're only in what, 2nd place? Ridiculous. They're also missing 3 million in cap room.
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#31 halfsharkalligatorhalfman

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 11:10 PM

Are we really gonna complain about how bad the mets are gonna be in 3 years?

a single pitch hasn't even been thrown yet on the season.

I like their chances to win the NL pennett. Especially since the Marlins and Nationals are so awful the Mets and Phillies could both make the postseason.
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#32 metallidevils

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Posted 03 March 2008 - 12:03 AM

Jesus, the entire league would have been playoff contenders if they didn't have a single 'average' player in their lineup. Are you kidding me? Because of the fact that the Mets have an average 2B and catcher, two of the most shallow conditions, they're not going to make the playoffs in two years? Also, why not just next year? Because Castillo is over 30 he'll definitely get worse from 2008-2009?

Your basic assumption seems to be that the Mets:
1. Have more impact players that will leave after 2008
		 a. Either through retirement i.e. Pedro, which probably won't happen, and El Duque, or
		 b. Will not be able to afford keeping everyone
					 1. which does not make much sense, because with a budget of over 100 million and a supposedly mediocre team, why wouldn't they be able to overspend?
2. Mets have holes in their lineup.
		a. The Mets have a slightly above average (but well placed in the lineup) second basemen, who is overpaid, but again, does that really matter here? Also, what is an 'out machine'? Someone who makes more outs than everyone else? I fail to see how a .300 hitter is an out machine.
		b. Scheider, yeah, he sucks. Not every team has a great catcher. 
		c. Delgado, couldn't imagine him being worse than last year, if he sticks around in 2009. If he doesn't stick around in 09 it probably means that he sucked again, which certainly makes him replaceable. We obviously missed the playoffs because of the September collapse but for the most part of the season still did well enough with him sucking in the lineup.

Also, now you're saying that you DIDN'T say that they'd be uncompetitive...I'm not sure how that's any different from 'spiraling into mediocrity'.

I can't imagine any real fan of baseball throwing VORP into a discussion. Leave the sabermetrics out of it, and watch a few Mets games if you want to get a real feel of the team. Maybe you'd change your 'Pelfrey should be in the starting rotation!' stance a little.

Edited by metallidevils, 03 March 2008 - 12:09 AM.

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#33 Devils731

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Posted 03 March 2008 - 08:56 AM

I can't imagine any real fan of baseball throwing VORP into a discussion. Leave the sabermetrics out of it, and watch a few Mets games if you want to get a real feel of the team. Maybe you'd change your 'Pelfrey should be in the starting rotation!' stance a little.


I'm a Mets fan so this is aside from how the Mets are going to do. Sabermetrics are the best way to measure future success for players and teams. Watching players and teams needs to be there as well but so much natural bias is input then. It's no surprise that the teams that use sabermetrics tend to be more succesful than teams that don't.

Any time I hear a baseball analyst rave about a guys batting average, while ignorning his on base percentage, I cringe. Whenever a players stolen bases are brought up but his stolen base success percentage isn't mentioned I cringe. When a player is said to be "clutch" and then they show 2 or 3 bit hits a player had but they don't show the 6 or 7 times the player didn't come through I shake my head. Whenever a pitchers ERA is cited but WHIP, HR/9, K/BB, and BABIP are ignored I can't help but think the guy doesn't know what he is talking about. When pitchers are said to know how to pitch just well enough to win games, as evidenced by a W-L record, I laugh as if the pitcher would give up just enough runs to win on purpose instead of just demolishing the other team.
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#34 Triumph

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Posted 03 March 2008 - 09:28 AM

I can't imagine any real fan of baseball throwing VORP into a discussion. Leave the sabermetrics out of it, and watch a few Mets games if you want to get a real feel of the team. Maybe you'd change your 'Pelfrey should be in the starting rotation!' stance a little.


LOL. Discussion over. You win.

Sorry, Mets fans, for derailing this thread - but when someone who thinks Endy Chavez starting in left is a good thing for the Mets, and tells me to 'stick to hockey', I get a little worked up.
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#35 Devils731

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Posted 03 March 2008 - 09:53 AM

Endy Chavez next year should do something about like this(assuming 500 ABs)

.285 BA, .327 OBP, .394 SLG, .721 OPS with 4 HR, 32 BB, and 60 SO.

That doesn't kill you and his defense is very good so that helps out as well. All in all Chavez doesn't hurt the team but he doesn't help the team all that much either. All in all is Chavez is fine for a 4th OFer/defensive replacement who may see up to 50 games this season. Having a 2/3 to 1/3 mix of Alou and Chavez is still a positive for the team over the whole season. The question is will the Mets have Alou healthy when the playoffs start, if they get there.
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Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

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#36 Triumph

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Posted 03 March 2008 - 10:18 AM

Endy Chavez next year should do something about like this(assuming 500 ABs)

.285 BA, .327 OBP, .394 SLG, .721 OPS with 4 HR, 32 BB, and 60 SO.

That doesn't kill you and his defense is very good so that helps out as well. All in all Chavez doesn't hurt the team but he doesn't help the team all that much either. All in all is Chavez is fine for a 4th OFer/defensive replacement who may see up to 50 games this season. Having a 2/3 to 1/3 mix of Alou and Chavez is still a positive for the team over the whole season. The question is will the Mets have Alou healthy when the playoffs start, if they get there.


Chavez is a wonderful 4th outfielder and defensive replacement.

His PECOTA has his SLG in the .360s, however - I don't think his ISO power is enough to produce a .394 SLG with a .285 BA.
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#37 Devils731

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Posted 03 March 2008 - 10:22 AM

Chavez is a wonderful 4th outfielder and defensive replacement.

His PECOTA has his SLG in the .360s, however - I don't think his ISO power is enough to produce a .394 SLG with a .285 BA.


I was just eyeballing based on his last 3 seasons of production which has 2 pretty good power years(the last 2) and 1 horrific year in general. His slugging could definitely be lower than that but 10-20 points of slugging isn't going to make a big difference, it's that .320-.330 OBP that keeps him from being truly productive as a speedy defense guy.
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Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

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#38 metallidevils

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Posted 03 March 2008 - 11:46 AM

LOL. Discussion over. You win.

Sorry, Mets fans, for derailing this thread - but when someone who thinks Endy Chavez starting in left is a good thing for the Mets, and tells me to 'stick to hockey', I get a little worked up.


Last season, the majority of Mets fans were calling for Chavez to start over Green. He's a fan favorite, plays hard, and yeah, I do like his output for the most part. You can tell me that his QWERTY or whatever isn't good enough to have a good stratomatic card or whater, but it really doesn't matter. He's a good 4th outfielder, and if Alou declines, which he probably will, I hope there's no hesitation to start him. He's maybe the Jay Pandalfo of the Devils, if you will.

You can also spit out all the acronyms you want; but Pelfrey still hasn't earned a spot on the starting day roster yet.

Edited by metallidevils, 03 March 2008 - 11:50 AM.

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#39 Triumph

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Posted 03 March 2008 - 11:57 AM

Last season, the majority of Mets fans were calling for Chavez to start over Green. He's a fan favorite, plays hard, and yeah, I do like his output for the most part. You can tell me that his QWERTY or whatever isn't good enough to have a good stratomatic card or whater, but it really doesn't matter. He's a good 4th outfielder, and if Alou declines, which he probably will, I hope there's no hesitation to start him. He's maybe the Jay Pandalfo of the Devils, if you will.

You can also spit out all the acronyms you want; but Pelfrey still hasn't earned a spot on the starting day roster yet.


The majority of Mets fans are fools, then. Lastings Milledge should've started over both of them. Green and Chavez were very similar players last season, but Green drew more walks and hit for a higher SLG. Chavez just does not draw enough walks to be a major league starter - his slugging actually isn't *that* bad, but he never gets on base - he's an out machine.

Pelfrey hasn't earned a spot on the opening roster, you are right. That's only because the Mets see fit to never let their prospects develop in the major leagues and have people like Orlando Hernandez wasting salary and innings in the majors until they invariably get hurt.

Edited by Triumph, 03 March 2008 - 12:01 PM.

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#40 Devils731

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Posted 03 March 2008 - 12:09 PM

Metalli, I know you're making fun of sabermetrics but you should really look into them. The more you explore them the more you learn about how the game works. Baseball is a game where the numbers tell almost the whole story so it is very effective to measure and predict by using past numbers. Things aren't perfect because it's still people playing the actual games but it's much more effective to add sabermetrics to your analyzing ability than to use only eyeballs and feelings. You will find that if you use sabermetrics that your ability to forecast and talk about players is much more effective, just as major league baseball front offices have found out.

As far as Green vs. Chavez. I could argue Chavez over Green due to defense but it was really a 6 or one half dozen situation. Their overall pacakage of effectiveness was about the same for both. Milledge probably would have been much better than both of them.
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