I know this is a little late, but I gotta give you credit nmig...no matter how hopeless this Met franchise seems when it comes to how it goes about its business, you don't let it sap your enthusiasm for baseball. You actually help to make me care about the upcoming season when I'm finding it hard to.
I used to get so excited when pitchers and catchers would report...even in the early 90s, Bobby Bonilla years. This year I'm so indifferent. I barely even scan the Met articles, when not so long ago I would read every last one. Keep up the great work and enthusiasm nmig, because we need it around here, and maybe it'll help guys like me and Hasan, because I think we've reached the point where we've almost had enough.
Thanks CR. I'm just really excited for baseball again, no matter how good or bad the team may look.
As currently built, I will admit that I don't think this team is a contender unless we get very strong years from Perez, Pelfrey, and Maine, among others. I found this WAR projection chart at Amazin' Avenue (a few weeks old):
84 wins seems like a decent projection to me, but I felt some of the projections were a little off, and so I made some changes and edited the chart. So first, the changes:
- I believe Maine and Perez will be worth more; I put Maine down for +2 and Perez for +1.5.
- For some reason the chart has Jon Niese for replacement level, which makes no sense; I would project him for +1.8 wins.
- With the addition of Barajas, you must replace him for Santos. CHONE has him at +1.5 and Fangraphs Fans have him at +0.6; I prefer to lean towards the CHONE projection but we'll call it even and put him at +1 win.
- I can't see Escobar, a reliever, being worth +1.5 wins, so subtract a full win from that. That gives you +0.5 for him.
- Santana's +3.8 WAR projection is very conservative, I would boost that by a full win to +4.8, which seems more realistic to me.
- I went with the averages for Murphy; CHONE has him at +0.7, Fangraphs' Fans have him at a more reasonable +1.6; I went with the in-between, so +1.
- I swapped out Fogg and Figueroa for Nieve and Parnell; Parnell is pretty much a lock to be in the bullpen and one of Figeuroa or Nieve, both whom are both out of options, will likely settle in as the long reliever (which is why I only put Nieve at 2 runs over replacement, though he could likely end up being worth more of course).
And so with those changes, my chart looks like this:
Amazin' Avenue has us at ~84 wins, and with some of my changes I have us at ~88 wins. Not bad, definitely more than I would have thought off the top of my head. But, they play the games for a reason. LETS GO METS!UPDATE:
Looking at it over, I'd say my most bullish projections are Santana and Niese. CHONE has Johan at only +3 WAR, which is far too low for me, Fangraphs Fan's have him at +4.7, which is probably a bit too high; I think +4 is fair, no? As for Niese, CHONE has him at +1.4 in 130+ IP; I think he'll be much closer to +2, if not over it, in a full season, so a projection anywhere between +1.6 to +1.8 sounds pretty fair.
But if you want to make those changes (+4 for Santana, +1.4 for Niese) then it comes out to 86.5; essentially 87 wins with slight boosts to guys I might be a bit down on (Murphy? K-Rod? Barajas?)
Edited by nmigliore, 25 February 2010 - 02:00 PM.