3131 replies to this topic

[nmigliore]

now Garland off the table as he signs with San Diego.

What the hell are we doing here?

That's great news. Hopefully we stay away from Jarrod Washburn now... Niese at league minimum is a better option over Washburn or Garland at $5-6M.

At this point I would bring in Smoltz and 1 of Bedard/Wang. Once Wang or Bedard is ready (won't be soon) then you could slide someone (Smoltz) to the bullpen.

I would worry more about having Nieve over Niese on the depth chart. Nieve is out of options while Niese can be assigned to AAA, which means Nieve would be the likely #5 in the rotation come Opening Day. Doubt that would last very long though...

Edited by nmigliore, 26 January 2010 - 06:42 PM.

[Devils Pride 26]

and what the hell happens when a pitcher gets hurt? god this team

[nmigliore]

and what the hell happens when a pitcher gets hurt? god this team

What plan are you talking about?

If they go with Niese in the rotation then its likely Nelson Figueroa as the primary call-up. Not a great option, but not a terrible one either. I don't really prefer this idea; I'm just saying there isn't a $5 or $6M difference between Niese and Washburn.

Like I said, my new primary plan would be to sign Smoltz along with Bedard or Wang; let Smoltz start until the guy you signed is healthy, then you can slide Smoltz into the bullpen, all while Niese is in AAA as depth.

Noah Lowry would be a nice guy to sign on a minor league deal to add as depth.

Edited by nmigliore, 26 January 2010 - 07:29 PM.

[nmigliore]

Looks like the Mets are close to resigning Tatis, which I'm happy to see. Any player who can put up a better than league average OPS in 300+ PA and play so many positions deserves a spot on the bench. On the flipside, you can be short sighted like many fans and ignore those things and say he stinks because of his poor double play luck last year, but whatever. I'm glad Tatis is being brought back.

I am a bit skeptical of the idea of platooning him with Murphy at 1B though, but we'll see what happens. To me, a Murphy/Tatis platoon at 1B looks like they might have plans for Ike Davis to step up by mid-season and take the job (unless Murphy is having a big year or something). Anyway, the bench looks like it might shake out like this:

Blanco - reserve C
Cora - reserve INF
Carter - primary PH'er vs RHP, reserve INF/OF
Tatis - primary PH'er vs LHP, reserve INF/OF
Matthews Jr. - reserve OF

Edited by nmigliore, 27 January 2010 - 07:53 PM.

[nmigliore]

Some minor league signings: RHP Josh Fogg and OF Frank Catalanotto.

Good depth moves, I could see Catalanotto battling Carter for the last bench spot. I also wonder if the Mets would be ballsy enough to cut Matthews Jr. if Catalanotto is significantly more impressive in spring (though considering Matthews can play CF and Catalanotto hasn't ever played there, it probably has no chance of happening). Anyway this move keeps pushing F-Mart down the depth chart, which is a good thing; let him spend the entire year in AAA next year.

As for Fogg, well as long as he isn't near the big league roster hes alright.

Edited by nmigliore, 30 January 2010 - 01:29 PM.

[nmigliore]

Haven't posted here in a bit, but the Mets brought in some guys on minor league deals, most notably Jake (Mike Jacobs) and Hisanori Takahashi (no, hes not the same Takahashi as last year, that was Ken, and they are unrelated, fwiw).

Jacobs is pretty bad; poor plate discipline, awful fielder at 1B, and has roughly been a replacement level player the past 3 seasons. Its actually kind of scary his highest win value in a single season was 2005 when he was worth +1.2 wins in only 112 PA. Crazy. Anyway, Jacobs will hit a few bombs in spring and then will likely be cut; I really don't think he is a serious threat to challenge Murphy for the 1B job and there is no room in AAA for him, I mean he might have an outside shot of winning a bench spot but I think the Mets would prefer a more versatile player like Catalanotto or even Chris Carter.

The Takahashi signing is a solid depth move. I do expect him to seriously fight for the #5 spot but I really hope it goes to Jon Niese. If that fails for Takahashi, then he might have a shot at winning the long-reliever role in the bullpen, though I think his value is a bit wasted there; let him pitch in AAA and call him up when we need an extra starter. Plus I believe Fernando Nieve is out of options, so he would seem like the favorite to get the last bullpen spot if he doesn't win the last rotation spot. Takahashi is a lefty but I if I remember reading correctly, lefties hit over .300 vs him last year in Japan, so its not like he would fit as a decent backup LOOGY to Feliciano.

Here is a good writeup about Takahashi by Patrick Newman at NPB Tracker: http://www.npbtracke...0-feet/#content , and Takahashi's stats from Japan: http://www.japaneseb...p?id=htakahashi

Edited by nmigliore, 11 February 2010 - 09:31 PM.

[Devils Pride 26]

oh the irony. sign jacobs the year delgado walks. thought that was funny.

['7']

Haven't posted here in a bit, but the Mets brought in some guys on minor league deals, most notably Jake (Mike Jacobs) and Hisanori Takahashi (no, hes not the same Takahashi as last year, that was Ken, and they are unrelated, fwiw).

Jacobs is pretty bad; poor plate discipline, awful fielder at 1B, and has roughly been a replacement level player the past 3 seasons. Its actually kind of scary his highest win value in a single season was 2005 when he was worth +1.2 wins in only 112 PA. Crazy. Anyway, Jacobs will hit a few bombs in spring and then will likely be cut; I really don't think he is a serious threat to challenge Murphy for the 1B job and there is no room in AAA for him, I mean he might have an outside shot of winning a bench spot but I think the Mets would prefer a more versatile player like Catalanotto or even Chris Carter.

The Takahashi signing is a solid depth move. I do expect him to seriously fight for the #5 spot but I really hope it goes to Jon Niese. If that fails for Takahashi, then he might have a shot at winning the long-reliever role in the bullpen, though I think his value is a bit wasted there; let him pitch in AAA and call him up when we need an extra starter. Plus I believe Fernando Nieve is out of options, so he would seem like the favorite to get the last bullpen spot if he doesn't win the last rotation spot. Takahashi is a lefty but I if I remember reading correctly, lefties hit over .300 vs him last year in Japan, so its not like he would fit as a decent backup LOOGY to Feliciano.


Here is a good writeup about Takahashi by Patrick Newman at NPB Tracker: http://www.npbtracke...0-feet/#content , and Takahashi's stats from Japan: http://www.japaneseb...p?id=htakahashi

Jacobs can pretty much only do one thing at this point in his career...hit the occasional home run against a righty pitcher. Why did we even bother with this guy?

Funny thing about Takahashi. He's a short (5'10) lefty who relies on the screwball, doesn't have much of a heater, and isn't all that proficient against lefty hitters. The Japanese John Franco?

With Maine and Ollie in the rotation, I want somebody who can at least eat up some innings in the #5 spot. Takahashi does not seem like that guy...I don't think anybody we have is like that.

[nmigliore]

Well we don't have a guy that has consistently put up big innings year in and year out in the past, but I'd be quite comfortable with Jon Niese as the #5. At least with him there is good upside and the chance he pitches like a #3 starter rather than a fringy back of the rotation guy like Livan Hernandez.

Edited by nmigliore, 14 February 2010 - 10:16 AM.

[nmigliore]

Per Ken Rosenthal, Mets sign catcher Rod Barajas, 1 year for $1M plus an 'easily attainable' $1M extra in incentives.

He isn't going to do much with the bat (likely a low average, sub-.300 OBP, perhaps 15+ HR) but he graded out as a very strong defensive catcher last year and I definitely prefer him to Omir Santos. Barajas and Blanco should make for a really nice defensive tandem and it will let Thole work on his defense in AAA.

Good deal.

Edited by nmigliore, 20 February 2010 - 03:32 PM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I know this is a little late, but I gotta give you credit nmig...no matter how hopeless this Met franchise seems when it comes to how it goes about its business, you don't let it sap your enthusiasm for baseball. You actually help to make me care about the upcoming season when I'm finding it hard to.

I used to get so excited when pitchers and catchers would report...even in the early 90s, Bobby Bonilla years. This year I'm so indifferent. I barely even scan the Met articles, when not so long ago I would read every last one. Keep up the great work and enthusiasm nmig, because we need it around here, and maybe it'll help guys like me and Hasan, because I think we've reached the point where we've almost had enough.

[nmigliore]

I know this is a little late, but I gotta give you credit nmig...no matter how hopeless this Met franchise seems when it comes to how it goes about its business, you don't let it sap your enthusiasm for baseball. You actually help to make me care about the upcoming season when I'm finding it hard to.

I used to get so excited when pitchers and catchers would report...even in the early 90s, Bobby Bonilla years. This year I'm so indifferent. I barely even scan the Met articles, when not so long ago I would read every last one. Keep up the great work and enthusiasm nmig, because we need it around here, and maybe it'll help guys like me and Hasan, because I think we've reached the point where we've almost had enough.

Thanks CR. I'm just really excited for baseball again, no matter how good or bad the team may look.

As currently built, I will admit that I don't think this team is a contender unless we get very strong years from Perez, Pelfrey, and Maine, among others. I found this WAR projection chart at Amazin' Avenue (a few weeks old):



84 wins seems like a decent projection to me, but I felt some of the projections were a little off, and so I made some changes and edited the chart. So first, the changes:

- I believe Maine and Perez will be worth more; I put Maine down for +2 and Perez for +1.5.

- For some reason the chart has Jon Niese for replacement level, which makes no sense; I would project him for +1.8 wins.

- With the addition of Barajas, you must replace him for Santos. CHONE has him at +1.5 and Fangraphs Fans have him at +0.6; I prefer to lean towards the CHONE projection but we'll call it even and put him at +1 win.

- I can't see Escobar, a reliever, being worth +1.5 wins, so subtract a full win from that. That gives you +0.5 for him.

- Santana's +3.8 WAR projection is very conservative, I would boost that by a full win to +4.8, which seems more realistic to me.

- I went with the averages for Murphy; CHONE has him at +0.7, Fangraphs' Fans have him at a more reasonable +1.6; I went with the in-between, so +1.

- I swapped out Fogg and Figueroa for Nieve and Parnell; Parnell is pretty much a lock to be in the bullpen and one of Figeuroa or Nieve, both whom are both out of options, will likely settle in as the long reliever (which is why I only put Nieve at 2 runs over replacement, though he could likely end up being worth more of course).

And so with those changes, my chart looks like this:



Amazin' Avenue has us at ~84 wins, and with some of my changes I have us at ~88 wins. Not bad, definitely more than I would have thought off the top of my head. But, they play the games for a reason. LETS GO METS!

UPDATE:
Looking at it over, I'd say my most bullish projections are Santana and Niese. CHONE has Johan at only +3 WAR, which is far too low for me, Fangraphs Fan's have him at +4.7, which is probably a bit too high; I think +4 is fair, no? As for Niese, CHONE has him at +1.4 in 130+ IP; I think he'll be much closer to +2, if not over it, in a full season, so a projection anywhere between +1.6 to +1.8 sounds pretty fair.

But if you want to make those changes (+4 for Santana, +1.4 for Niese) then it comes out to 86.5; essentially 87 wins with slight boosts to guys I might be a bit down on (Murphy? K-Rod? Barajas?)

Edited by nmigliore, 25 February 2010 - 02:00 PM.