No, the second-line center is the issue because we don't have anyone good enough to play there. There's a decent amount of mediocre players available to play third-line center.
You're the VORP master ... how much difference is there between Manny Malhotra and Rod Pelley -- our supposed FOURTH-LINE center? Probably not much.
i think there's a lot. on the surface, it doesn't seem like much, but everything adds up.
A: Goal scoringOkay, on the face of it - Malhotra probably scores between 4-6 more goals. A big meh. 1-1.5 wins. Not a big deal.
B: Faceoffs Pelley was thought to be a faceoff monster, but he did not do particularly well at winning faceoffs. Malhotra is one of the best faceoff men in the league. This is probably worth something like 2 goals a year -
http://www.puckprosp...p?articleid=239 - if Malhotra takes something like 600 defensive zone faceoffs, instead of Pelley taking that many, Pelley probably wins around 300-310, Malhotra around 355.
C: ReplacementThe real problem isn't necessarily Pelley vs. Malhotra, it's 'what if Zubrus or Zajac gets injured?' Zubrus has avoided major injury as a Devil, but before becoming one he was a virtual certainty to miss 10 or so games at least. The alternatives are awful - Ben Walter? Michael Swift? The solution will clearly come from the roster and have to be Elias or Rolston, which is no picnic either - it means shifting around all the lines.
The other way in which Malhotra is a 'replacement' - he could take Travis Zajac off the penalty kill. If the Devils can use something like this on the PK:
Elias-Malhotra
Rolston-Pelley
the Devils could put out Travis Zajac's line right after every penalty kill. I can't even pretend to know how much this is worth, but one thing I disliked about Sutter's style was his tendency to play mash-up lines after penalty kills and power plays - I think Zajac's line should get 15 minutes a game at even strength, last year they got around 13:30. Last season the PZL line scored 65 even strength goals - if they scored at the same rate in 15 minutes worth of ES ice time per game (assuming each plays 82 games), that's 71 goals.
The summary of all that doesn't sound like much, but think about it this way: not only is adding a player worth 1.5 wins give us a greater chance to win a playoff series, it gives us a better chance to play a worse team in the playoffs, also increasing our chances of winning. it's cumulative.
The Devils can sign a Blair Betts (unfortunately they can no longer sign Marcel Goc, as he inked with Nashville yesterday) to placehold, but I really think it's a gross error to go into the season with Zajac, Zubrus, Pelley, Walter, Swift, Sestito as the centers' depth chart. I don't think they will do that, but they're playing a dangerous game now with the remaining players, and waivers doesn't figure to offer up that many prizes.
Edited by Triumph, 21 August 2009 - 04:33 PM.
. Anyway, last night I was watching the replay of Marty's 100th win. It was cool to see a game from the Lemaire era, as this was before my time. One thing in particular I noticed was when Chico started talking about how Sullivan who was a center his whole life switched to wing so they could get more offense out of him. Playing a rookie at center in a defensive system isn't that easy to break in. As subtle as this tidbit may be it got me thinking. Lemaire has always done for with less than a lot of other coaches. His understanding of the game is impeccable. 
