199 replies to this topic

[nmigliore]

Brewers acquired Zack Greinke.

The package doesn't seem as good as it probably could have been from other teams, but it does at least address areas in which the Royals' loaded farm system lacked - SS and CF, even though Escobar and Cain don't really dazzle me. The other guys are decent; Jeffress could be a future closer and Ordorizzi has the upside of a #2 if things break right, but hes probably still a few years away. I think the issue here though is that they really didn't get an impact guy, they went with quantity over quality.

Greinke is a nice fit for Milwaukee for 2011, at least. If Randy Wolf rights himself they could have a very good rotation. After that though, 2 of their better players in Weeks and Fielder hit free agency, which could put a damper on their contender status in 2012. Still, they didn't up all that much for such a great pitcher, so thumbs up for them.

Edit: Supposedly Jeffress is not even in the deal. Certainly makes the Royals' haul look worse, eesh.

Edit 2: Nevermind, Jeffress is in the deal.

Edited by nmigliore, 19 December 2010 - 02:24 PM.

[nmigliore]

Something that never gets talked about much here is the HoF. There has been a craze by the saber-community to get Bert Blyleven in, and fortunately it has finally happened. I have personally never written up a piece on him, but I've read a few, and he certainly qualifies as an easy HOF'er for me. Jack Morris is always brought up too and how hes not worthy, which I agree with; career +39.3 WAR, exactly 1 season with a WAR above 5. Uh, no, that's not nearly good enough. People like Jon Heyman and Jayson Stark who cry about how he started Opening Day and All-Star games are really ignorant. Its 2011. Get with the program. Baseball is a lot more than pitcher win-loss records and even ERA.

Jeff Bagwell received 41.7% votes for his 1st year. He'll make it in eventually, but he should have been a 1st ballot guy. He really was an incredible player:

WAR Leaders among 1B from 1990 to 2000:
1) Jeff Bagwell, +64.7
2) Frank Thomas, +63.0
3) Rafael Palmeiro, +56.5

WAR leaders among 1B from 1995 to 2000:
1) Jeff Bagwell, +42.0
2) Mark McGwire, +38.4
3) Jim Thome, +31.9

And for the hell of it... WAR leaders among 1B from 1997 to 2000:
1) Jeff Bagwell, +21.4
2) Mark McGwire, +19.9
3) John Olerud, +18.3

Bagwell also stacks up amazingly well against other position players of his time, ranking 3rd in WAR from 1990 to 2000, behind only Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. He was an elite, dominating player of his era, part of the steroid era no less, and arguably was the BEST at his position during that time frame. Hes in the all-time top 10 in WAR at his position too. Sure he was accused of steroids, but hes innocent until proven guilty, and jeez, who the hell wasn't juicing anyway?

Kevin Brown is another guy who didn't get much recognition. Actually, he got like none (2.1%), which is unfortunate. He put up pretty dominant numbers, as a starting pitcher, amidst the steroid era. From 1990 to 2000, he ranked 4th among starters in WAR; behind some guys named Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, and Randy Johnson, ahead of John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, among others. His career +64.4 WAR passes the ~50 WAR HoF basis that some go by. Even if you want to argue hes not HoF-worthy, he still should get a lot more notoriety.

And congrats to Robert Alomar. Hopefully Larkin gets in next year too. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote a nice piece on why Larkin should certainly be in - http://www.fangraphs...why-not-larkin/

Edited by nmigliore, 05 January 2011 - 03:01 PM.

[ghdi]

I personally think that everyone should be allowed in, steroids or not. That was an entire era and is part of the game's history now. There's plenty of far more nefarious types in the HOF already. However, if a player is found to have used steroids it should be mentioned on their plaques or in some way noted.

Id have voted for: Larkin, Bagwell, Alomar, Morris, Blyleven

Its a bit shocking it took Bert 14 freakin tries.

[thefiestygoat]

http://www.mlbtrader...ike-napoli.html

5:41pm: Wells has waived his no-trade clause and underwent a physical in Anaheim today, Rosenthal reports. Juan Rivera could also be headed to Toronto along with Napoli.

If the Jays aren't chipping in any money this is highway robbery. They get out of the Wells contract and get two serviceable players....what is Anaheim thinking?!

[nmigliore]

Well, at least the Angels finally found someone to take their money this offseason.

[nmigliore]

In all seriousness, yeah, I don't get it. The Jays HAVE to be kicking in some money. Wells was actually really good this year (+4 fWAR), but I'm not sure how much you can put into that given its his first legit-good season since 2006. He was terrible away from the friendly confines of Toronto too; .306 wOBA on the road, .417 at home. And of course he still has another 4 years/$86M on that deal.

Napoli has caught flack for his defense but that's not exactly an area of strength in the sabermetric world, so its hard to measure his value. What is known though is that his bat is quite good for a catcher, so at the very worst, he's at least a nice bat that should fit that park really well. Rivera is meh, but he only has 1 year left on his deal, and maybe he'll bounce back and do alright in that park.

Oh, and meanwhile, the Rays are getting Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez.

It really is an "LOLWHAT" night in MLB... wow.

Another thing - this probably makes Jeff Mathis the new everyday catcher in Anaheim. Yep. The guy with the career .199/.265/.311 batting line.

Edited by nmigliore, 21 January 2011 - 08:53 PM.

[thefiestygoat]

What a crazy night in the dead of winter for baseball. Should be interesting to see how Damon and Manny do in Tampa. Next thing will probably be Cashman pulling off a trade for a serviceable SP out of the blue. (Ok, I'm trying to will that one.)

Edited by thefiestygoat, 21 January 2011 - 09:21 PM.

[nmigliore]

Its been confirmed that Toronto is sending NO money. Wow. What an epic fail of a deal. There are no other words. Really.

Dr33 is probably in shock somewhere.

Edited by nmigliore, 21 January 2011 - 09:37 PM.

[thefiestygoat]

Saw a few tweets that said no cash was exchanged in the Wells trade. Wow.

[devilsrule33]

AA does it again. This is insane. I am hearing the Jays are giving $5 million which is even weirder than no money. Since the deal is so back-loaded, the Jays only paid Vernon $40 million over 3 years of the deal, which isn't bad at all. What a wild night.

Edited by devilsrule33, 21 January 2011 - 11:21 PM.

[thefiestygoat]

http://twitter.com/#!/JimBowdenXMFOX/status/28670852690092033

Vladimir Guerrero could be one of the best FA bargains for one-year deal of off-season....getting close to accepting humbling deal w O's

Add another big name into the AL East. He isn't the player he once was but he's still good. Had a .360 wOBA and 124 wRC+ last year.

[nmigliore]

My initial thought was that it was kind of an awkward fit when you consider the circumstances -- he'd probably make more sense for a contender -- however there probably isn't any contenders even in need of a DH right now. Texas would have made sense again but they are stuck with Michael Young's contract and will be forced to use him at DH. Also, something that probably shouldn't go understated is Vlad is a name that can bring fans to the park, something that franchise needs.

In any case, Baltimore is even more homer-friendly than Texas, especially for right-handed hitters. With the additions of Vlad, Mark Reynolds (hes going to love that park), J.J. Hardy, Derrek Lee, and a healthy Brian Roberts, the Orioles quietly did a solid job of reshaping their team this offseason. They may not all be sexy names, but if you look at the kind of production the O's got from most of those positions last year: -1.1 WAR from 1B, +1 WAR from 2B, -0.7 WAR from SS, 0 WAR from 3B, you can see its an upgrade. Adding Vlad would also probably push Luke Scott to LF, upgrading a position in which the O's also had below replacement level production from last season.

The O's might still be destined for a last place finish, but they are at least showing their fanbase they are trying to field a competent team, and I'm sure O's fans will enjoy watching Vlad manage to slash base hits while swinging a foot outside the strikezone.

Edited by nmigliore, 22 January 2011 - 10:40 AM.

[thefiestygoat]

I'm definitely looking forward to catching a few Yankee-Oriole games at Camden Yards this year.

[thefiestygoat]

http://twitter.com/#!/beckjason/status/28867623496196096

Dave said trade talks progressing with clubs on Galarraga. "I'd say [deal] is likely," he said.

I really hope it's not the Yankees. As desperate as they are he is just as bad if not worse than Mitre.

[nmigliore]

You can breathe easier Fiesty; Galarraga ends up in Arizona for a couple of minor leaguers: http://www.mlbtrader...-galarraga.html

Galarraga is a cool dude and all, but hes such a bad fit for that ballpark; he had the 3rd highest flyball percentage among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched last season and his career 1.62 K/BB is quite bad for a flyball pitcher.

[Hi, I'm VALUE!]

So Michael Young of Texas wants to be traded. Source

Who do you think he's going to, if anywhere?

He has a limited NTC, and the Angels seem like the best possible fit if they were a National League team.

I've heard rumors of both the Yankees and Mets being tossed around there, but I don't think either is particularly likely. Young wouldn't start on the Yankees barring injury, and I can't seem him adapting to a bench role with NYY if he won't for Texas. He would make an amazing bench player, but he sure wouldn't start. And the Mets should probably not take on that contract (3/48) unless they can ship both Castillo and Perez out the door AND get some cash. It would either be a bad contract swap or a Gary Matthews Jr. style trade.

[nmigliore]

Young is an overrated player; hes been a below average hitter (90 wRC+) over the last 3 seasons away from Texas and his defense at 3B is not good either. Unless your home park is very friendly to right-handed hitters, I'd stay away from his remaining contract.

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs brought up an idea for a possible swap of Carlos Lee for Michael Young, which could make a lot of sense for both sides: http://www.fangraphs...ee-makes-sense/

[nmigliore]

I don't know if anybody reads Rob Neyer, I'm sure some do, but hes moved from ESPN to SB Nation recently, and I've really enjoyed reading his stuff. He comes from a saber-based point of view, but he won't put you to sleep like some Fangraphs articles will. Even if you are into the advanced stats I still highly recommend reading his stuff: http://www.sbnation....thors/rob-neyer

[nmigliore]

Per Rotoworld, looks like Adam Wainwright is gonna need TJ surgery.

That's really too bad for the Cardinals; Wainwright such a major piece to lose. I have favored the Brewers for that division regardless, but it was always kinda wide open between them, the Reds, and the Cards. This definitely sets St. Louis back quite a bit.

Edited by nmigliore, 23 February 2011 - 10:52 AM.