199 replies to this topic

[Devils Dose]

Can't Votto still get in on that fan vote thing. Or are they not doing that this year?

[DH26]

Can't Votto still get in on that fan vote thing. Or are they not doing that this year?

they are doing the fan vote for the final spot again. Vote Swish for the AL

[DH26]

Pettite added to all star team after Buchholz goes on DL. Still no Weaver, I guess he'll fill in for CC since he's pitching Sunday

[nmigliore]

Joel Sherman

i have learned deal done with #Rangers, Smoak and 3 others for Lee and reliever Mark Lowe #Rangers, #Mariners

Everybody else seems to be confirming this too....

Well, you my as well give Texas the AL West crown now. I said it a few weeks ago in this thread - they needed a stud like Lee, and now they got him. I wouldn't have traded Smoak for a rental that you know won't resign, but nonetheless, they are going to be pretty scary.

Its funny how the Mariners' return is going to be better than what the Indians and Phillies received for Lee.

Edited by nmigliore, 09 July 2010 - 04:07 PM.

[nmigliore]

National League wins! Finally!

Thank you nasty pitching staff, Brian McCann, Marlon Byrd, and David Ortiz [for being so slow]!

Edited by nmigliore, 13 July 2010 - 10:54 PM.

[Hi, I'm VALUE!]

Braves get Alex Gonzales for Yunil Escobar (+/- some minor leaguers)

How do the board Met fans feel about this?

[nmigliore]

Ignoring the minor leaguers in the deal, that's a great trade for the Jays. Yunel Escobar is having a down year and the Braves clearly got tired of his lackadaisical work ethic, but hes been a valuable shortstop in the past:

2007 (only 355 PA): +2.4 fWAR, +2.9 rWAR
2008: +3.3 fWAR, +2.9 rWAR
2009: +4.3 fWAR, +5.5 rWAR

(fWAR = Fangraphs' WAR, rWAR = Baseball-Reference's WAR)

Alex Gonzalez isn't that great. Hes having a better year, but that's thanks to a fluky power surge, so don't be surprised if Escobar outperforms him in the 2nd half. The Jays definitely got the much better return.

Edited by nmigliore, 14 July 2010 - 12:40 PM.

[RSC]

As a Braves fan, I'm happy-ish about this, if that makes sense. It clearly shows that they're going for it all this year by dumping Escobar for someone who is having a better year, though generally isn't thought of as a better shortstop, but if they don't win this year, they could be right back to being crappy. Cox is gone after this year, Chipper is most likely going to retire, and Glaus, Wagner, Prado, and Hinske,among others, are all on one year deals and could very well leave Atlanta for more money elsewhere Just have to enjoy this season, I guess.

[nmigliore]

As a Braves fan, I'm happy-ish about this, if that makes sense. It clearly shows that they're going for it all this year by dumping Escobar for someone who is having a better year, though generally isn't thought of as a better shortstop, but if they don't win this year, they could be right back to being crappy. Cox is gone after this year, Chipper is most likely going to retire, and Glaus, Wagner, Prado, and Hinske,among others, are all on one year deals and could very well leave Atlanta for more money elsewhere Just have to enjoy this season, I guess.

The problem is, Escobar is probably a better bet to outperform Gonzalez in the 2nd half. I'd be stunned if Gonzalez keeps up his crazy power surge, and I'd be equally stunned if Escobar keeps up his power outage.

FWIW, these are ZiPS' projections for the rest of the season for Gonzalez and Escobar:
Escobar: .280/.357/.390, .335 wOBA
Gonzalez: .242/.288/.414, .308 wOBA

I much, much rather have Escobar for this year and beyond. He hasn't even hit his arbitration years yet either.

Edited by nmigliore, 14 July 2010 - 12:57 PM.

[DH26]

idk if anyone else has seen this Keith Law v Omar Vizquel nation fight on twitter. But apparently a lot of people think he should be in the Hall of Fame, which is ridiculous. He was never one of the top 3 SS in his league and some of the guys that were better than him aren't going. He also couldn't hit for beans which believe it or not is half the game.

So what does everyone else think about Omar, guys like Jorge Posada, Mike Mussina and whoever else you can think of to the HOF in baseball?

[nmigliore]

Vizquel had only 1 season with a WAR above 4; long career with some solid seasons, but not HOF worthy, no way.

[DH26]

Vizquel had only 1 season with a WAR above 4; long career with some solid seasons, but not HOF worthy, no way.

yeah it's crazy how many people think he belongs. Law says there are tons of people yelling at him. It's ridiculous for a good not great player. I never once said, I wish the Yankees had Vizquel, that would solve the problems. He was probably the worst players of that Indians infield with Matt Williams, Jim Thome and Robbie Alomar two HOFers and another player who had really, really good years

[nmigliore]

Mike Mussina should definitely go in too; hes in the top 25 career WAR among all-time pitchers* and ahead of some pretty big names that will surely go in or are already in. Its pretty funny that he and Pedro Martinez are almost identical in career WAR, though Pedro's peak years (10.1 WAR in 2000, 8.4 WAR in 1999, 8.2 in 1997) are much better than Mussina's (7.4 in 1992, 6.5 in 2001, 6.2 in 2003).

* - And hes in the top 6 of Fangraphs' historical WAR database, though that only dates back to 1980.

Edited by nmigliore, 26 July 2010 - 05:28 PM.

[nmigliore]

So, Oswalt was finally dealt.... and for a pretty weak return.

Happ is probably okay as a back-end starter, but I'd be willing to bet 2009 was his peak year (his sub-3 ERA was a fluke too). Hes also 27 years old, and by the time the Astros become competitive again, he'll likely be in his 30's, and who knows if he'll even be good enough to still be in a big-league rotation by then. I guess this fits into their line of thinking that they'll be competitive next year, since they also are reluctant to deal Brett Myers . Outfielder Anthony Gose is a toolsy outfielder whose very raw and far from the Majors, and shortstop Jonathan Villar is another young, raw toolsy player.

So in a nutshell, a back-end starter who makes little sense for the Astros, and a couple of raw, toolsy prospects in A ball. The deal would look a lot better if they got Jonathan Singleton. He would have made a much better centerpiece over Happ.

EDIT: And Houston just flipped Gose to Toronto for Brett Wallace. I guess Toronto opted to shoot for more upside by taking the guy with the higher ceiling [Gose]. Wallace has the much higher floor though. Wallace has some questions about him (he hasn't walked much in AAA, his power and position are question marks), but I'd still personally take him over Gose.

Heh I just read Keith Law's perspective of the trades... he basically feels the Oswalt trade was a 'no-brainer' for Philly and the Gose-for-Wallace swap makes no sense from Toronto's perspective.

Edited by nmigliore, 29 July 2010 - 05:09 PM.

[DH26]

So Wilson Ramos for the immortal Matt Capps. Now the Twins usually know what they're doing, but this is just horrid. I'd throw up if I was a twins fan

[nmigliore]

When you target relievers, you don't target guys having great years. I mean the Jays are demanding a high-level prospect or 2 for Scott Downs; that's ridiculous. Instead you go for guys with strong peripherals but awful luck: Chad Qualls, Jason Frasor, Bobby Jenks, Rafael Betancourt, etc.

I actually think Ramos is a bit overhyped (his defense should carry him but his plate discipline is brutal), but they probably could have gotten something better. It wasn't too long ago there were rumors about him anchoring a package for Cliff Lee....

Edited by nmigliore, 29 July 2010 - 09:51 PM.

[DH26]

When you target relievers, you don't target guys having great years. I mean the Jays are demanding a high-level prospect or 2 for Scott Downs; that's ridiculous. Instead you go for guys with strong peripherals but awful luck: Chad Qualls, Jason Frasor, Bobby Jenks, Rafael Betancourt, etc.

I actually think Ramos is a bit overhyped (his defense should carry him but his plate discipline is brutal), but they probably could have gotten something better. It wasn't too long ago there were rumors about him anchoring a package for Cliff Lee....

yeah I heard Seattle wanted elite catching prospects (but loved Smoak) so wanted Ramos or Montero and then suddenly he's traded for a mediocre reliever having a good year. You could get Qualls for peanuts right now

[devilsrule33]

Got to say, I am absolutely loving the Escobar trade. He is playing some great baseball so far and looks to have all the tools. The Wallace trade was obviously a shock, but this would be now the 4th organization to get rid of him so there is something a little wrong. I know Keith Law isn't a fan, and I can understand why. I guess it Adam Lind time at 1B next season.

Should be an interesting day. Still not sure if I want to see Bautista traded or not. It have to be a pretty good deal.

[nmigliore]

I'd trade Bautista. Hes got another arbitration year left before hes a free agent, but I don't think that's all that useful to Toronto unless they are sure they can contend with the big 3 in the AL East next year. There is also no guarantee he has a year like this again (I'd strongly bet against it), so sell high.

As for Escobar, good for Toronto, there is no question the Jays got the better end of that deal.

[DH26]

I'd trade Bautista. Hes got another arbitration year left before hes a free agent, but I don't think that's all that useful to Toronto unless they are sure they can contend with the big 3 in the AL East next year. There is also no guarantee he has a year like this again (I'd strongly bet against it), so sell high.

As for Escobar, good for Toronto, there is no question the Jays got the better end of that deal.

even though their GM is looking like a moron for the Downs thing, he still did fleece the Braves on that one. Sure Cox hated him, but he'll probably hate Gonzalez more since he, you know, sucks.

But I would've gotten rid of Batista after he first started getting good. Somebody'll bite. He's never gonna do this again, so just take the highest offer. Even if he still is great, you couldn't have seen it coming. Just bite the bullet and get rid of him