Jump to content

Photo

2010 MLB Thread


  • Please log in to reply
199 replies to this topic

#141 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,144 posts

Posted 01 October 2010 - 07:35 PM

A recent Fangraphs' article inspired this thought, but, I really never noticed what an outstanding season Justin Morneau has had, even though he hasn't played since July. Hes totaled a +5.3 fWAR in only 348 PA this season, or, in simpler terms: a .345/.437/.618 slash line and an UZR just under +10 at 1B. That's nuts. I know its dangerous to play the 'on pace for ...' game, and I'm sure he would have regressed at least some, but over 600 PA, that translates to an fWAR above 9!

It would have been really sweet to see him and Hamilton duke it out for the AL MVP down the stretch opposed to Hamilton so easily running away with it like he is. Oh what could have been....

Hes supposedly going to be out at least until the ALCS, which really stinks for the Twins, though they are already very well-balanced as is: 3rd in AL in wOBA, 3rd in AL in starting pitcher FIP, 3rd in AL in relief pitcher FIP, 3rd in AL in UZR/2nd in AL in DRS. If they can squeak past the Yankees or Rays in the ALDS and then get Morneau back, watch out.

Edited by nmigliore, 01 October 2010 - 07:50 PM.

  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#142 devilsrule33

devilsrule33

    A Legend

  • Mod
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,938 posts

Posted 01 October 2010 - 07:52 PM

A recent Fangraphs' article inspired this thought, but, I really never noticed what an outstanding season Justin Morneau has had, even though he hasn't played since July. Hes totaled a +5.3 fWAR in only 348 PA this season, or, in simpler terms: a .345/.437/.618 slash line and an UZR just under +10 at 1B. That's nuts. I know its dangerous to play the 'on pace for ...' game, and I'm sure he would have regressed at least some, but over 600 PA, that translates to an fWAR above 9!

It would have been really sweet to see him and Hamilton duke it out for the AL MVP down the stretch opposed to Hamilton so easily running away with it like he is. Oh what could have been....

Hes supposedly going to be out at least until the ALCS, which really stinks for the Twins, though they are already very well-balanced as is: 3rd in AL in wOBA, 3rd in AL in starting pitcher FIP, 3rd in AL in relief pitcher FIP, 3rd in AL in UZR/2nd in AL in DRS. If they can squeak past the Yankees or Rays in the ALDS and then get Morneau back, watch out.


Morneau was just tearing up the league before the concussion. Speaking of MVP and awards...anyone have a problem with Hamilton, Votto, King Felix, and Halladay for the big 4 awards?
  • 0

logokx.jpg

"The Stanley Cup has fallen from the Stars. The new millennium has its first Stanley Cup Champion, and it's the New Jersey Devils." Mike Miller calling the Devils winning the Stanley Cup.

"It goes to the captain and then there are handoffs during a skate around the ice" Mike Emrick as Scott Stevens is being presented the Stanley Cup.


#143 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,144 posts

Posted 01 October 2010 - 07:57 PM

Morneau was just tearing up the league before the concussion. Speaking of MVP and awards...anyone have a problem with Hamilton, Votto, King Felix, and Halladay for the big 4 awards?



I'd go with: Josh Hamilton for AL MVP, Joey Votto for NL MVP, Cliff Lee for AL Cy Young (this is definitely the most difficult choice, but I went with WAR, FIP, tERA, and xFIP as the 4 deciding factors between Lee and King Felix, and Lee wins in all 4), Roy Halladay for NL Cy Young, Austin Jackson for AL RoY, and Buster Posey for NL RoY.

Edit: I just threw in tERA for the heck of it and Lee won in that too. I do find it shocking Felix isn't on top of at least 1 of those 4 stats (though WAR/FIP kinda go hand-in-hand to a degree). I guess Lee really is just that damn good.

Edited by nmigliore, 01 October 2010 - 08:07 PM.

  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#144 devilsrule33

devilsrule33

    A Legend

  • Mod
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,938 posts

Posted 01 October 2010 - 08:10 PM

I'd go with: Josh Hamilton for AL MVP, Joey Votto for NL MVP, Cliff Lee for AL Cy Young (this is definitely the most difficult choice, but I went with WAR, FIP, and xFIP as the 3 deciding factors between Lee and King Felix, and Lee wins in all 3), Roy Halladay for NL Cy Young, Austin Jackson for AL RoY, and Buster Posey for NL RoY.


It is pretty funny that the old school guys look simply at a pitcher's wins and how good their teams are, while a guy like me might look at ERA, WHIP, IP, etc and you are going further with the heavy duty advanced stats. I don't know though...Hernandez has an ERA almost 1 point below Lee...has pitched a ton more innings.
  • 0

logokx.jpg

"The Stanley Cup has fallen from the Stars. The new millennium has its first Stanley Cup Champion, and it's the New Jersey Devils." Mike Miller calling the Devils winning the Stanley Cup.

"It goes to the captain and then there are handoffs during a skate around the ice" Mike Emrick as Scott Stevens is being presented the Stanley Cup.


#145 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,144 posts

Posted 01 October 2010 - 08:23 PM

It is pretty funny that the old school guys look simply at a pitcher's wins and how good their teams are, while a guy like me might look at ERA, WHIP, IP, etc and you are going further with the heavy duty advanced stats. I don't know though...Hernandez has an ERA almost 1 point below Lee...has pitched a ton more innings.


Its tough. If Felix wins, I won't complain, that's for sure. There is absolutely a case to be made that he deserves it.

The only reason I don't really like ERA and WHIP is because they have a reliance on things that aren't really in a pitcher's control, such as defense (which is a factor in hits in WHIP, and in turn ERA) and ballparks. A pitcher who pitches behind an excellent defense is probably going to have a decent ERA despite weak peripherals (see: Jarrod Washburn last year - 2.64 ERA with Seattle despite his FIP being over a full run higher at 3.80)*. And vice versa - a pitcher who pitches behind a bad defensive team might have a higher ERA than he should. But hey, at least its better than going by win-loss records and being on a winning team. I'm not trying to pick on a Yankee here, but you just know CC Sabathia will get his share of Cy Young votes for his 21 wins, and to a lesser degree, being on 1 of the best teams in baseball, when in reality, there is probably 7 to 10 more deserving candidates.

* - A 3.80 FIP is not weak, but you get what I mean.

Edit: I should clarify that I don't find WHIP to be totally useless. I just don't personally use it that often due to the hit factor, which is related to BABIP/defense. Its mainly ERA that I'm picking with, and its to a point where I rarely look at it. I always jump straight to FIP since its a better indicator of how well a pitcher is actually pitching. Its like I mentioned above - a pitcher could have weak peripherals and a good ERA while another pitcher could have good peripherals and a poor ERA; should the pitcher with weak peripherals/good ERA get the credit for being better? I don't think so, but that's just my opinion. In this case, while its obviously not as extreme as as the example I just said, Lee has been better. Even when you factor in the innings, which is what WAR does, the advantage still goes to Lee. And then there is tERA, which basically extends off of FIP and factors in batted balls (so obviously a pitcher with a high line drive rate against and a weak groundball rate isn't going to have a nice looking tERA), and that stat also favors Lee. I can even go a bit further and use one of Baseball Prospectus' tools, SIERA: 'Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck.' Felix's SIERA: 3.19 .. Lee's SIERA: 3.03.

I'm not trying to rag on Felix here either. Hes been outstanding this year. Has he been better than Cliff Lee? Like I've said: its tough. You can't go wrong with either as a Cy Young choice. I just tend to lean towards the advanced stats, which say Lee gets the edge.

Edited by nmigliore, 01 October 2010 - 09:58 PM.

  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#146 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,144 posts

Posted 16 November 2010 - 05:38 PM

Holy crap, the Marlins just dealt Dan Uggla for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn.

That's right. Dan Uggla for a utility infielder, who will be a free agent next year, and a reliever. Their all-time HR leader and one of the best hitting 2B in baseball to a division rival for a crappy, zero-upside return. Uggla is a free agent next year, but man, you have to do better than that.

What a pathetic franchise. I feel bad for Marlins fans, I really do.

Edited by nmigliore, 16 November 2010 - 05:53 PM.

  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#147 PeteyNice

PeteyNice

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,121 posts

Posted 16 November 2010 - 10:13 PM

Wow. That was theft. I hate to think what kind of dreck other teams were offering. Infante is a capable player but also a FA after next season. People here were concerned what kind of fleecing they were going to see when the Braves traded for Upton. Of course, their infield defense takes a big hit unless you move Uggala to the OF.
  • 0
"Yo moms so fat, Russia can see her from THEIR house." -Anil Dash

Palin 2012

"Demand for Portland" -- Consumerist.com

"The New York football Giants marched into Little D and made 'America's Team' their prison bitch....[and next week the G-Men] will push the Packers up and down the frozen tundra like their own private zamboni!" -- Carl from Adult Swim

(No longer) Gotta check this every day

Living in constant fear of Fox Security

A proud member of the Reality Based Community

Official Nemesis of Triumph

"The player is fine." -- Brian Cashman

"[PeteyNice] f off!" --LOULAM1

"Petey, you're MY NEW HERO!!!" -- CRASHER

"bow chica bow wow" - RoughDraft

"I did it with panache and style, that's how I did it" - Mad Sweeney

#148 devilsrule33

devilsrule33

    A Legend

  • Mod
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,938 posts

Posted 16 November 2010 - 10:18 PM

Why wouldn't the Marlins just keep him and take the picks? Now the Braves get the picks which is worth what they gave up alone if not much more. This trade makes no sense.

Edited by devilsrule33, 16 November 2010 - 10:19 PM.

  • 0

logokx.jpg

"The Stanley Cup has fallen from the Stars. The new millennium has its first Stanley Cup Champion, and it's the New Jersey Devils." Mike Miller calling the Devils winning the Stanley Cup.

"It goes to the captain and then there are handoffs during a skate around the ice" Mike Emrick as Scott Stevens is being presented the Stanley Cup.


#149 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,144 posts

Posted 16 November 2010 - 10:19 PM

I should note I don't think Infante is a crappy player (which it looks like I'm saying in the original post). I think he'll bring some decent value to the Marlins next season for only being paid $2.5M. But in terms of upside, its really nothing, and hes a free agent after the season. The deal would look a lot better if Infante was younger and cost-controlled for more years, or even if he projected as a Type-A. Dunn, a flyball reliever with control issues, is really the only "given" future player the Marlins are acquiring here, which really makes this deal bad.

Edited by nmigliore, 16 November 2010 - 10:20 PM.

  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#150 Hi, I'm VALUE!

Hi, I'm VALUE!

    All-Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,492 posts

Posted 17 November 2010 - 12:07 PM

John Buck is a Marlin for 3/$18. Thoughts? I'm just happy the Red Sox didn't get him, since he was one of their primary targets.
  • 0
VOTE CRASHER FOR LADY BYNG 2011!

2008 NJDevs Fantasy Football Champion
Co-winner of the 2008-2009 UnderdogX Signature Award (Internet awards = serious business)


Devils Head Coach = More turnover than the Defense Against the Dark Arts post.


"congratulations, Value. Maximum Value was, apparantly, gaurenteed." -Martysb3tt3r

I will not remove this line from my signature until everyone alive realizes that
THE INTERNETS ARE SERIOUS BUSINESS KTHXBYE~!

#151 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,144 posts

Posted 17 November 2010 - 01:01 PM

John Buck is a Marlin for 3/$18. Thoughts? I'm just happy the Red Sox didn't get him, since he was one of their primary targets.


Fills their catching hole, but 3 years at $6M per seems quite excessive for a catcher with Buck's skillset. He doesn't walk much anymore, he strikes out a lot, but since hes more of an aggressive hitter now, hes hitting for more power. The problem is if pitchers start catching on to his aggressive tendencies (and I'm sure they will), his power is likely going to regress, and once that happens, he won't be any good. For 1 year with some kind of option thrown in I think it would be okay, but 3 years is too much IMO. Don't get me wrong either, Buck was quietly a top-10 hitting catcher this year, and he wasn't that bad the year prior, but I'd just doubt that pitchers never make an adjustment when pitching to him.

Keith Law had a funny take on Buck in his free agent rankings list (he ranked Buck 49 out of 50):

It's possible that Buck just found himself once he got out of Kansas City and had the chance to play nearly every day, or it's possible that a dead fastball hitter changed his approach to try to boost his home run total in his walk year, with a little help from Toronto's homer-friendly ballpark and a fortunate schedule.


:lol:

Edited by nmigliore, 17 November 2010 - 01:41 PM.

  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#152 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,144 posts

Posted 18 November 2010 - 02:23 PM

So the Cy Young awards were handed out this week. Unsurprisingly, Roy Halladay took home the award for the NL, and it was announced today that Felix Hernandez won it for the AL. Good for King Felix. I said it weeks ago that I would not oppose him winning it, as you can easily make a strong case that he should win it over Lee. I'm just glad they didn't do something dumb like give it to Sabathia or Price.
  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#153 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,144 posts

Posted 04 December 2010 - 08:50 AM

Adrian Gonzalez looks Boston-bound: http://www.mlbtrader...alez-trade.html

Regardless of what the return will be right now, this move was an absolute must for the Padres.
  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#154 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,144 posts

Posted 05 December 2010 - 04:58 PM

Holy.... Werth just got $126M over 7 years from the Natinals Nationals.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Perhaps the funniest part of this deal is that its going to be a nice, big albatross on their payroll when they finally do become competitive (opposed to looking "okay" like it would over the next season or 2).

Crazy.

Edited by nmigliore, 05 December 2010 - 05:02 PM.

  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#155 '7'

'7'

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,795 posts

Posted 05 December 2010 - 05:09 PM

Dear god that is a brutal deal for Werth.

is it frontloaded at least?
  • 0
^7^ is just defending his sport sheeps.. as Alcibiades the exiled Athenian rationalizes in his speech to the enemy Spartans, he wants to take revenge on Athens because he loves it and can't stand to see the state it's in now - Triumph
Posted Image Posted Image

#156 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,144 posts

Posted 07 December 2010 - 01:03 PM

Edit: My bad, wrong thread.

Edited by nmigliore, 07 December 2010 - 01:19 PM.

  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#157 devilsrule33

devilsrule33

    A Legend

  • Mod
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,938 posts

Posted 09 December 2010 - 12:09 AM

Crawford to the Red Sox. Wow. That has to put the Sox as the team to beat this year.

Just an insane amount of money though. Way too much.

Edited by devilsrule33, 09 December 2010 - 03:57 PM.

  • 0

logokx.jpg

"The Stanley Cup has fallen from the Stars. The new millennium has its first Stanley Cup Champion, and it's the New Jersey Devils." Mike Miller calling the Devils winning the Stanley Cup.

"It goes to the captain and then there are handoffs during a skate around the ice" Mike Emrick as Scott Stevens is being presented the Stanley Cup.


#158 halfsharkalligatorhalfman

halfsharkalligatorhalfman

    General Manager

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,817 posts

Posted 09 December 2010 - 12:30 AM

I wonder how Tampa Bay fans feel about this. Is this a massive betrayal to them, or do they just accept it as the way it works?
  • 0
Devils Fan: 1994-2012
Sharks Fan: 2012-?
Posted Image

#159 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,144 posts

Posted 09 December 2010 - 08:52 AM

That's a lot of money indeed. The market is insane this year. This really helps Boston short-term, that's for sure. Long-term wise, it seems very risky. Crawford accumulated a total of +26.4 Fangraphs' WAR in his past 7 seasons, his age 22 to 28 seasons, which translates to about $119M of value using $4.5M per 1 WAR. I think Crawford will be a valuable player through the course of the deal -- barring any leg injuries (boy that would be a killer) -- and I'm sure he has a few +5 win years left in him, but I don't think I could see him being worth that much money all the way through his age 35 season. That really is a ton of money so heavily tied into speed and defense.

I think Crawford's defense would be more utilized in RF at Fenway, so it'll be interesting to see if they make a switch.

By the way, this probably locks up Lee to the Yankees.

Edited by nmigliore, 09 December 2010 - 09:03 AM.

  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#160 Jerrydevil

Jerrydevil

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,900 posts

Posted 09 December 2010 - 02:39 PM

By the way, this probably locks up Lee to the Yankees.


I'm not getting that feeling. I have a hunch the Yankees will be left holding a bag of money.
  • 0




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users