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#161 Hi, I'm VALUE!

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Posted 09 December 2010 - 02:44 PM

I'm not getting that feeling. I have a hunch the Yankees will be left holding a bag of money.


I understand Lee is all about the cash, but turning down any of 5/125, 6/144, or 7/161 is insanity unless the Rangers or Angels can beat 7/161. I'm not sure they're willing to do it.
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#162 Jerrydevil

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Posted 09 December 2010 - 02:47 PM

I understand Lee is all about the cash, but turning down any of 5/125, 6/144, or 7/161 is insanity unless the Rangers or Angels can beat 7/161. I'm not sure they're willing to do it.


It makes perfect sense for him to go to the Yankees, but I have a feeling (no proof) that Lee's using the Yankees to get the price from another team (probably Texas) as high as possible.
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#163 NJDevs4978

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Posted 09 December 2010 - 03:12 PM

I'm not getting that feeling. I have a hunch the Yankees will be left holding a bag of money.


I'm more inclined to agree with nmig, at the very least everyone else other than Texas can take their bats and gloves and go home now and the only way Texas has a hope of getting him is if they offer six years at the very least (supposedly they didn't want to go above five) and the offer's competitive enough with the lack of a state income tax that he can justify leaving a 'few' million on the table.

Texas better go six years though, if they're offering five and the Yankees have 7-160 out there then fuggedaboutit.
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#164 nmigliore

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Posted 09 December 2010 - 03:46 PM

The Yankees' top target going into the offseason was always Cliff Lee. With the Red Sox acquiring 2 of the better position players in baseball, I sense there would be even more urgency on the Yankees' part to get a deal done with him. Not to mention Crawford, a possible Yankee target should they not get Lee, is now off the table.

Yesterday we heard Cashman wasn't going past 6 years. Today, they supposedly are offering 7 years. It'll happen.

Edited by nmigliore, 09 December 2010 - 03:49 PM.

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#165 Jerrydevil

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Posted 09 December 2010 - 03:56 PM

You guys are probably right, but I sense something unexpected will happen, and I sense he is playing the Yankees, and suspect Texas might get "close enough."

It's pretty exciting though, isn't it? Hot stove baseball often is.
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#166 ghdi

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 11:36 AM

The Yankees' top target going into the offseason was always Cliff Lee. With the Red Sox acquiring 2 of the better position players in baseball, I sense there would be even more urgency on the Yankees' part to get a deal done with him. Not to mention Crawford, a possible Yankee target should they not get Lee, is now off the table.

Yesterday we heard Cashman wasn't going past 6 years. Today, they supposedly are offering 7 years. It'll happen.


The Red Sox signing Crawford is brilliant....FOR THE YANKEES

He sucks at Fenway.

From Washington Post:

http://www.washingto...0121006172.html

Throughout his career, Crawford has hit Red Sox pitching just as well as he has hit against everybody else - that is, as long as the games were in Tropicana Field. There, he had a flashy slash line of .327/.363/.482. But in lopsided Fenway Park, which works against all his tendencies as a hitter, Crawford has only hit one home run every 85 at-bats. In 338 career plate appearances in Fenway, a large sample over many years, he has an ugly .275/.301/.406 line.

There's a name for speedy, weak-armed left fielders with those numbers. They're called AAAA players. Or young prospects. Many teams have one. The Nats' example is Roger Bernadina, except he can throw. Last year, Crawford's OPS was "only" 75 points lower in Fenway than elsewhere.


Obviously, Crawford will get used to Fenway, but he already plays there a buttload because of being from an AL East team.

As for Lee, I dont blame the guy for taking his time. These are huge contracts being offered and its a big move espc if he goes to NY because of how different it is from the other markets he's played in with Philly being the only comparable one.

Its hard to call this time though. I felt CC was a Yankee from the moment that offseason began. Lee wouldnt surprise me which he goes. I dont feel he's stringing anyone along either, its a gigantic contract and a long-term commitment. Both teams are going to be in the thick of races for a while as well, especially with Texas signing that massive TV deal and an owner willing to spend.

Apparently, Texas' initial offer was 5 yrs/100 million with incentives and options.
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#167 nmigliore

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 12:26 PM

I'm not a big fan of the deal either, but to call Crawford a AAA player based off of that Fenway stat is ridiculous. Its worth pointing out Tropicana has ranked as a much less forgiving park for hitters compared to Fenway too. Crawford is one of the best outfielders in baseball; his +27.2 WAR since 2005 ranks 3rd best among all outfielders and his total +12.5 WAR in 2009 and 2010 (combined) ranks tied for 1st among all outfielders. I'm sure he'll get over his Fenway woes and be quite useful to the Red Sox even if he ends up not being worth what hes getting paid in the latter years.

I also just noticed those career Fenway numbers are mostly dictated by plate discipline:

Crawford career at Fenway, Crawford career
Isolated power (ISO): .133, .148
Extra-base hit percentage (XBH%): 9.2%, 7.9%
BABIP: .327, .331
BB%: 2.6%, 5.4%
K%: 19.1%, 15.4%

So Fenway has not taken away much of his overall power, his extra-base hit percentage is actually stronger at Fenway than it is for his career, and the park has not taken away many hits from his balls in play compared to his career rate. What has hurt Crawford at Fenway over his career is poor plate discipline numbers relative to his career.

Edited by nmigliore, 11 December 2010 - 12:57 PM.

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#168 ghdi

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 12:51 PM

TBF he called him a AAAA player ;) with that stat-line at Fenway, its not unfair to say that now. I think Crawford is going to prove it wrong eventually, but the Yankees have no need to knee-jerk. The Red Sox have done the kneejerking this offseason. The Yanks' plan of attack has been Lee since the get-go.
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#169 nmigliore

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Posted 11 December 2010 - 01:10 PM

Yeah but to pick out a spattered 300+ PA at Fenway and label him a non-Major Leaguer is pretty silly*, especially when you see those numbers are mostly dictated by poor plate discipline rather than the actual park itself (check my post above, I think I edited after you got your post in).

* - Derek Jeter has a career .701 OPS at Fenway over 561 career PA. Is he a AAAA player too? :D

Crawford is a great hitter who plays excellent outfield defense. Again, I'm not sure I agree with the notion that he'll be worth an average annual salary of of $20M+ over the next 7 seasons, but, I'd probably bet on him at least having some decent value every season in Boston barring any injuries.

Edited by nmigliore, 11 December 2010 - 01:15 PM.

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#170 nmigliore

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Posted 13 December 2010 - 10:11 PM

Cliff Lee looks Philly bound. So much for that Yankees theory.

Ugh. As a Mets fan, of all places for Lee to go, that is the one place I really didn't want him to go. Oy vey. :argh:

Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Oswalt has the chance to be historically good. The NL East is going to be hell for at least another few years.

Edited by nmigliore, 13 December 2010 - 10:13 PM.

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#171 thefiestygoat

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Posted 13 December 2010 - 10:22 PM

Cliff Lee looks Philly bound. So much for that Yankees theory.

Ugh. As a Mets fan, of all places for Lee to go, that is the one place I really didn't want him to go. Oy vey. :argh:

Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Oswalt has the chance to be historically good. The NL East is going to be hell for at least another few years.

As a Yankee fan I'm pissed. As someone who hates everything to do with Philly I'm pissed. What a horrible night. Heyman said official decision may come early tomorrow...also he may be leaving $50-70M on the table...MLBPA can't be happy with that.
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#172 nmigliore

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Posted 13 December 2010 - 10:31 PM

As a Yankee fan I'm pissed. As someone who hates everything to do with Philly I'm pissed. What a horrible night. Heyman said official decision may come early tomorrow...also he may be leaving $50-70M on the table...MLBPA can't be happy with that.


It sucks to miss out on a player you figure to have right from the start of the offseason, but hey, at least hes not in your division or even the same league. As a Mets fan, its going to really suck having to compete with the Phils' rotation for years to come. However, if there is a silver lining, its that investing huge money into aging, 30+ year old players doesn't always work out too well for the future. I hope they are a mess in a few years from now.

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If the Phils sign Lee for what he'll likely cost they'll have $75+ mil committed in 2013 to four players, the youngest of whom will be 33.


That's pretty pathetic, but hey, they are doing their best to capitalize on winning championships while they have their window of opportunity.

Suddenly the 2nd wild card idea looks a lot more appealing to me too.

Btw, speaking of Heyman, he has to be the biggest tool out there. I love how debunked the Phils from being a mystery team earlier today or yesterday. He sure nailed that one; good stuff Jon.

Edited by nmigliore, 13 December 2010 - 10:43 PM.

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#173 thefiestygoat

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Posted 13 December 2010 - 10:37 PM

It sucks to miss out on a player you figure to have right from the start of the offseason, but hey, at least hes not in your division or even the same league. As a Mets fan, its going to really suck having to compete with the Phils' rotation for years to come. Hopefully Halladay and Lee hit the decline sooner than later, but I'm not holding my breathe.

Suddenly the 2nd wild card idea looks a lot more appealing to me too.

Btw, speaking of Heyman, he has to be the biggest tool out there. I love how debunked the Phils from being a mystery team earlier today or yesterday. He sure nailed that one; good stuff Jon.

I hear ya man, I actually feel bad since a lot of my friends that follow baseball are Met fans. Like you said I'm hoping Halladay and Lee hit the decline sooner rather than later.

Yeah, I really hate Heyman and for the most part I don't take anything he says as truth unless there are other guys reporting it too. I hate how he is like a propaganda mouthpiece for Boras in previous offseasons.
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#174 ghdi

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Posted 13 December 2010 - 11:14 PM

Looks like the Yanks are out of the Lee race...

http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_RosenthaI/status/14531134461321216

It's (almost) official: Lee has reached a tentative agreement with the #Phillies, he is waiting to see if the #Rangers will offer 8yrs. #MLB


Fake Rosenthal acct according to MLB Trade Rumors (who first retweeted that)

Edited by ghdi, 13 December 2010 - 11:18 PM.

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#175 NJDevs4978

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Posted 14 December 2010 - 12:24 AM

God, I hate sports right now. The Devils have been sucked down into the tenth level of hell for the last year, the Jets are in the midst of a collapse to end all collapses and now the baseball season's over before it begins.

I didn't think it could get worse than Lee going to the Yankees but going back to the Phillies is a total and horrendous nightmare. Just play the Red Sox-Yankees ALCS and then the winner plays the Phillies in the World Series right now and spend the rest of the time haggling over the next CBA :P
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#176 '7'

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Posted 14 December 2010 - 12:43 AM

How the fvck did the Phillies have the $$$ for Lee? This is totally out of left field. I mean now Halladay and Lee in the same rotation?

Our only hope is that age and injuries catch up with them. Would love to see Lee's back go out on his first windup of the season
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#177 ghdi

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Posted 14 December 2010 - 12:58 AM

How the fvck did the Phillies have the $$$ for Lee? This is totally out of left field. I mean now Halladay and Lee in the same rotation?

Our only hope is that age and injuries catch up with them. Would love to see Lee's back go out on his first windup of the season


I think this is the first time ever I've ever felt for Mets fans.

Amaro apparently is working on a deal for Blanton and at least one other player. They're going to make Lee fit.

What I think is most interesting is that Texas actually was the high bidder with the vesting options taken into account. With the Yankees offer, it was something like $154 total, but the Texas offer (with vesting) was $161. Obviously, the raw numbers had the Yankees offering the most.

Lee wanted the Phillies and when he didnt get the 8th year from Texas or NY, that was it.

Edited by ghdi, 14 December 2010 - 01:01 AM.

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#178 TheMazz

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Posted 14 December 2010 - 01:54 AM

There is always Brandon Webb...
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#179 nmigliore

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Posted 14 December 2010 - 08:45 AM

5/100 sounds like a great deal too. Blah. Again, at least the silver lining is they are full of 30+ year old players, except for Hamels and Brown. Hopefully roster decline hits them sooner than later.
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#180 RSC

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Posted 14 December 2010 - 09:39 AM

Jesus fvcking Christ. And just when the Braves were starting to give me some optimism.
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