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New Kovy Update ("As the Kovy Turns")


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#821 maxpower

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:40 PM

It's simple. First off, 8.8 is the max Kovy would get from anywhere.

Secondly, to say that Parise is a better all-around player doesn't tell the whole story. Teams don't invest their fortunes in hard-work, they invest in talent and hard-work. The level of Kovy's hockey talent is miles above Parise's. You know that if you invest in Kovy you are going to get that talent for seven years. If Parise gets injured he might become half the player he once was. That doesn't happen for a Kovalchuk or a Heatley type player unless the injury is very serious.

Then there is the fact that Parise is going to be a RFA. The Devils will be able to give him the best offer without breaking 8 mill.

Then there's the point that Kovy playing at his worst is still going to register a 40 goal/85 point season. Parise at his worst would be somewhere around 30 goals/ 70 points. That's the difference between a premier NHL player like Parise and a NHL superstar like Kovy.

I say all this and I love ZP9 as a player and a person.


Parise is at least Kovalchuk's equal. The last two seasons, they have the same amount of points. Kovalchuk one more goal, Parise one more assist. Who do you think is better in the other facets of the game? And of course, one of the two doesn't have his universe run through him. Although I know what Triumph thinks about "bonus minutes" and their total lack of meaning. :lol:

If you gave me a choice, I take Parise every time. A little risky taking the guy on his upside, rather than the guy where you know what you get, but I don't care.

I don't get that choice. IMO, unless Parise is a champ about this or Lou learns how to write a contract in this environment (you can tell from this cap hit that it's probably a balanced contract, if it's front-loaded, it's a weak frontload like Elias')... Lou's made the choice. You can't have both. You definately can't have all three of Elias/Parise/Kovalchuk, and I think that starts now.

Edited by maxpower, 05 July 2010 - 10:41 PM.

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#822 NJDevs4978

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:41 PM

here's what i don't get re: kovy and the contract.

you're 27 - once you've signed 7 years, you can consider this your last big payday - is it possible at 34 he gets another mammoth deal - sure, i suppose if he's scored 35+ goals the last 7 years (let's surely hope so). but it's not entirely likely. so i don't understand why, knowing how the cap works, they don't give him a 13 year, $91MM deal and structure it so he's paid plenty over the first 7 years to work the present day value to an acceptable level and then start stepping down the last 6 years to make them relatively small payments. this is not a new loop hole - plenty of teams are already doing this.

again - unless he thinks he's going to be able to get another $60MM in 7 years to net him $120 over the next 14 years, i don't see why lou and him don't work this out - sure it's more $ for JVB but hey, he's probably the one telling Lou to get him in the first place.


Or it's just purely ego...Kovy wants a slightly higher annual salary than Ovechkin and Crosby, hence the 8.8 number.

Zach would probably be more amenable to doing one of those 12 year, 80 million type deals and I think for him (and cap relief) Lou would break his seven-year limit...I hope that's the case though and Zach doesn't have a hard-a$$ for an agent cause that might be the only way you can afford to keep him now.
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#823 DH26

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:42 PM

Parise is at least Kovalchuk's equal. The last two seasons, they have the same amount of points. Kovalchuk one more goal, Parise one more assist. Who do you think is better in the other facets of the game? And of course, one of the two doesn't have his universe run through him. Although I know what Triumph thinks about "bonus minutes" and their total lack of meaning. :lol:

If you gave me a choice, I take Parise every time. A little risky take the guy on his upside than the guy where you know what you get, but I don't care.

I don't get that choice. IMO, unless Parise is a champ about this or Lou learns how to write a contract in this environment (you can tell from this cap hit that it's probably a balanced contract, if it's front-loaded, it's a weak frontload like Elias')... Lou's made the choice. You can't have both. You definately can't have all three of Elias/Parise/Kovalchuk, and I think that starts now.


but what salary they get has to do more than with just how good they are. Vanek makes over 7 mil just because of an offer sheet. Restricted free agents never get as much as they could on the open market. That's why people like Gomez are making as much as Datsyuk. UFAs always gets more. Look at baseball for an example: Joe Mauer would have gotten more if he'd been a UFA but didn't and took elss for security
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#824 Neb00rs

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:42 PM

Parise is at least Kovalchuk's equal. The last two seasons, they have the same amount of points. Kovalchuk one more goal, Parise one more assist. Who do you think is better in the other facets of the game? And of course, one of the two doesn't have his universe run through him. Although I know what Triumph thinks about "bonus minutes" and their total lack of meaning. :lol:

If you gave me a choice, I take Parise every time. A little risky taking the guy on his upside, rather than the guy where you know what you get, but I don't care.

I don't get that choice. IMO, unless Parise is a champ about this or Lou learns how to write a contract in this environment (you can tell from this cap hit that it's probably a balanced contract, if it's front-loaded, it's a weak frontload like Elias')... Lou's made the choice. You can't have both. You definately can't have all three of Elias/Parise/Kovalchuk, and I think that starts now.


First of all you can def have all 3 players. You just have to surround them with younger players and get the overpayed veterans off the books over the next couple years.

Secondly, depending on what team you are there is a small chance you might take Parise over Kovy. But they are not equals, period. The level of talent is not even close.
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#825 maxpower

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:44 PM

but what salary they get has to do more than with just how good they are. Vanek makes over 7 mil just because of an offer sheet. Restricted free agents never get as much as they could on the open market. That's why people like Gomez are making as much as Datsyuk. UFAs always gets more. Look at baseball for an example: Joe Mauer would have gotten more if he'd been a UFA but didn't and took elss for security


Well, Parise will be a UFA (or becoming an UFA) when he signs his next contract. I doubt he signs a deal with a RFA year.
Arbitration. If he's signed out of arbitration, he'll be getting that first year as a UFA year even if it isn't one.

That is, if he's ever here tomorrow.
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#826 sundstrom

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:44 PM

First off, we don't want to be stuck with any player for 13 years.

Secondly, Kovy doesn't want to be stuck anywhere for 13 years. Some players do, some don't Kovy is the type thaat leaves his options open.


the 13 years is on paper first of all. secondly, when he retires in 8 - 10 years, the last 3-5 mean nothing. and third the odds of him playing the rest of his career in NJ are not that high. it's just started, but what we're going to be seeing with these really long deals is that nobody finishes them with the team they signed them with and when they're bigger cap numbers and smaller payouts (especially with the cap seeming to rise to infinity), they'll actually become attractive (Triumph has been calling this since the cap was first put in place). it's the NBA economics, coming to a hockey team near you.

as for kovy, specifically - if he's not happy, he gets traded. there's no secret to that so don't worry about "options." regardess, he has the ultimate option - RUSSIA - at any time.
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#827 Triumph

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:46 PM

parise is unquestionably better than kovalchuk and i don't think i'd ever argue that. still, new jersey is dropping a ton of salary every year, and they won't have those RFAs needing to be paid until way down the line. tedenby, josefson, urbom, henrique, etc. are basically all 7+ years away from UFA. so you can give kovalchuk a 7 year deal knowing that even if your young players perform outstandingly that they won't be UFA until that contract is up, and all their pay raises can basically be paid from the money being paid to kovalchuk.
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#828 NJDevs4978

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:47 PM

but what salary they get has to do more than with just how good they are.


Of course...but agents use past contracts as comparables and barometers for their own client, all the more so when the two players have similar numbers and play for the same team, especially when Kovy went UFA for the Devils and Zach's about to go UFA for the Devils.

You can't compare this to Savard and Lucic or Campbell and Keith, those were all different scenarios. This is strikingly similar. I'm just saying, don't be shocked if Parise has a hard-ass agent that things get rocky.
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#829 maxpower

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:47 PM

First of all you can def have all 3 players. You just have to surround them with younger players and get the overpayed veterans off the books over the next couple years.

Secondly, depending on what team you are there is a small chance you might take Parise over Kovy. But they are not equals, period. The level of talent is not even close.


"talent" does not equal everything, and there are other facets to hockey other than sniping. most of you guys have oversold Kovalchuk from the beginning.

and having all three players is nuts. You have $15M tied up in 2 LW's now. Are we going to make it $22M? More? Why don't we just re-up Parise now and see if we can get $28-29M for 4 LW's. I think it can be done.

the overpaid veterans are gone. some are going to go now, some are going to go next July. all of your cap scapegoats are history and you're still going to be rubbing up against the cap. of course, when all of these "clearings" are gone, then you're totally dependant on cap increases and shrewd manuvering. and teams built like Pittsburgh, where you better hope your stars produce, because they're going to be surrounded by fodder.
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#830 Neb00rs

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:48 PM

Or it's just purely ego...Kovy wants a slightly higher annual salary than Ovechkin and Crosby, hence the 8.8 number.

Kovy knows he's not going to make as much as Crosby (9 mill) and will get a monster conrtact when he is a UFA and Ovechkin (9-10mill)
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#831 Triumph

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:52 PM

the overpaid veterans are gone. some are going to go now, some are going to go next July. all of your cap scapegoats are history and you're still going to be rubbing up against the cap. of course, when all of these "clearings" are gone, then you're totally dependant on cap increases and shrewd manuvering. and teams built like Pittsburgh, where you better hope your stars produce, because they're going to be surrounded by fodder.


not the case. if the devils sign kovalchuk they won't be able to fill holes from outside. but they've got a bunch of prospects all ready to break into the NHL at the same time. they can be coasting on these guys for years if things turn out well with them. the real problem with pittsburgh is that they have had to rely on outside talent all the time - they haven't really developed a winger better than tyler kennedy since god knows when, and they are continually dealing draft picks every year as well.

Edited by Triumph, 05 July 2010 - 10:53 PM.

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#832 Neb00rs

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:53 PM

the 13 years is on paper first of all. secondly, when he retires in 8 - 10 years, the last 3-5 mean nothing. and third the odds of him playing the rest of his career in NJ are not that high. it's just started, but what we're going to be seeing with these really long deals is that nobody finishes them with the team they signed them with and when they're bigger cap numbers and smaller payouts (especially with the cap seeming to rise to infinity), they'll actually become attractive (Triumph has been calling this since the cap was first put in place). it's the NBA economics, coming to a hockey team near you.

as for kovy, specifically - if he's not happy, he gets traded. there's no secret to that so don't worry about "options." regardess, he has the ultimate option - RUSSIA - at any time.

The point is that he loses control of what he does and where he goes. He's taking the low-risk chance that when he's 34 he'll be able to get at the very least a 7 million dollar per year contract (and it may be higher).

not the case. if the devils sign kovalchuk they won't be able to fill holes from outside. but they've got a bunch of prospects all ready to break into the NHL at the same time. they can be coasting on these guys for years if things turn out well with them.

Exactly what I'm saying.

Oh and Kovy is better than Parise. I love Parise and his spot on the Devils always comes first. But there is a reason we traded for Kovy and it's because we didn't have a player of his caliber/talent. And there is a reason Lou is about to spend a fortune on him.

Edited by ben00rs, 05 July 2010 - 10:55 PM.

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#833 Daniel

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 10:55 PM

"talent" does not equal everything, and there are other facets to hockey other than sniping. most of you guys have oversold Kovalchuk from the beginning.

and having all three players is nuts. You have $15M tied up in 2 LW's now. Are we going to make it $22M? More? Why don't we just re-up Parise now and see if we can get $28-29M for 4 LW's. I think it can be done.

the overpaid veterans are gone. some are going to go now, some are going to go next July. all of your cap scapegoats are history and you're still going to be rubbing up against the cap. of course, when all of these "clearings" are gone, then you're totally dependant on cap increases and shrewd manuvering. and teams built like Pittsburgh, where you better hope your stars produce, because they're going to be surrounded by fodder.


When the dust settles, we'll have a cap situation similar to the of the Caps. They have $17 million tied up in two players long term, and $23 million in three players for this year. Bad cap management doesn't have much to do with the Caps post season issues.
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#834 sundstrom

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 11:00 PM

Oh and Kovy is better than Parise. I love Parise and his spot on the Devils always comes first. But there is a reason we traded for Kovy and it's because we didn't have a player of his caliber/talent. And there is a reason Lou is about to spend a fortune on him.


i'm sorry - i just don't agree with this. there is no denying what kovalchuk is - a pure goal scorer with amazing natural ability. sure, parise may have to work harder, but he still does much more than kovalchuk and makes his linemates better. i'm not saying kovalchuk is a bum to parise's God-like stature. just that parise is better. admittedly, it's more likely that parise just stops scoring rather than kovy, but that doesn't make ilya the better player. he's a better scorer - that's it.

parise is going to see a lot more PK minutes i'd expect this year and that will make him even more valuable. and lets also not forget that he's a handsome AMERICAN with a name that anyone can pronounce. unless the entire front office and JVB are just complete idiots, they have 100% considered what needs to be done with Parise before they even thought about retaining kovalchuk.
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#835 maxpower

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 11:03 PM

not the case. if the devils sign kovalchuk they won't be able to fill holes from outside. but they've got a bunch of prospects all ready to break into the NHL at the same time. they can be coasting on these guys for years if things turn out well with them. the real problem with pittsburgh is that they have had to rely on outside talent all the time - they haven't really developed a winger better than tyler kennedy since god knows when, and they are continually dealing draft picks every year as well.


It depends how tight you are to the cap. We have a patch here where we have some players coming through. But as you start to activate their ELC (and obviously quite a few are already on the clock), the time starts to run out. If they're not so good, you have more time. But every one you hit on, is going to want to get paid at the end of their ELC. If you're perpetually tight to the cap (I actually think the first two years will be the easiest, as we were going to be tight this year no matter what we did, you'd have to figure some of this money was going to another defenseman anyway), it's going to be a pain in the ass. If your ELC guy wants or deserves a raise in the $2M's or so, that's a million or so you need lying around. It perpetuates. That's why I would trade Elias, he's got the biggest caphit on the team, at least for the next 12 hours, and it's a long term deal. It's being a cold hearted bastard, but it's the easiest way to relieve the pressure. If Rolston disappears at the same time, all the better. Also, it's possible to get something back for Elias, although it would have to be around half/less than half of his cap figure to make sense.

Chicago is a total disasterpiece right now. They're at (I'm too lazy to look) $54.5M or something like that with 14 player and a cap penalty. That's not really what I aspire to be, but they would have to have alot of hits with the prospects to get there. And make bad goalie decisions post-Marty.
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#836 Neb00rs

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 11:04 PM

i'm sorry - i just don't agree with this. there is no denying what kovalchuk is - a pure goal scorer with amazing natural ability. sure, parise may have to work harder, but he still does much more than kovalchuk and makes his linemates better. i'm not saying kovalchuk is a bum to parise's God-like stature. just that parise is better. admittedly, it's more likely that parise just stops scoring rather than kovy, but that doesn't make ilya the better player. he's a better scorer - that's it.

Here's the thing: Kovy changes the way other teams play us the way Scott Stevens did. For example, The d-men nervously flock to Kovy on the PP leaving the ice open for the other players.

Kovy is a gamechanger and Parise is not. No doubt Parise is more solid defensively.

and lets also not forget that he's a handsome AMERICAN with a name that anyone can pronounce.

That is a very good point, my mind is changing.

Edited by ben00rs, 05 July 2010 - 11:05 PM.

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#837 maxpower

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 11:08 PM

If Kovalchuk was the gamechanger you make him out to be, what happened wouldn't have happened. He's a very good player. He is not some elite superhuman god that will turn the league on its ear. Don't be too annoyed if he turns into an annual 35/40 goal scorer and 80 point player. It would be nice if he went apesh!t and lived up to his contract, and this 3 months was just a hiccup, but I'm not expecting it.

Please don't start comparing him to Scott Stevens now. The transition period here is going to be annoying enough. :lol:
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#838 RowdyFan42

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 11:10 PM

What's up? The lawn is mowed. Edged too but not blown.

This reminds me of the hardwood flooring thread from a few years ago.
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#839 Triumph

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 11:11 PM

It depends how tight you are to the cap. We have a patch here where we have some players coming through. But as you start to activate their ELC (and obviously quite a few are already on the clock), the time starts to run out. If they're not so good, you have more time. But every one you hit on, is going to want to get paid at the end of their ELC. If you're perpetually tight to the cap (I actually think the first two years will be the easiest, as we were going to be tight this year no matter what we did, you'd have to figure some of this money was going to another defenseman anyway), it's going to be a pain in the ass. If your ELC guy wants or deserves a raise in the $2M's or so, that's a million or so you need lying around. It perpetuates.


but it doesn't, really.

the devils have 9 million 'coming off' the books in july 2011 (arnott, langenbrunner, greene, hedberg)

in july 2012, they have 16.6 coming off the books (brodeur, rolston, salvador, white)

in july 2013, they have 15 million coming off the books (elias, zubrus, zajac, clarkson)

in 2013-2014, they have 2 contracts on the books, tallinder and volchenkov.

this is just a ton of money coming free, and more to the point, josefson, tedenby, urbom, henrique, and someone else i'm forgetting will all be RFA in july 2013 - there will be buckets of money with which to sign them if they do do well. with bergfors gone, there won't be many pesky RFA contracts in the interim, and there will be lots of UFA contracts going bye-bye and being replaced by a player who has around the same value for 1/4th of the cost. i admit this is a rosy picture, but i still think that if we sign kovalchuk, this team will look just fine in 2012-13 with a salary cap around 64 million and $31.5 million committed to 7 players. we'll be able to have parise on that team and still do fine.

That's why I would trade Elias, he's got the biggest caphit on the team, at least for the next 12 hours, and it's a long term deal. It's being a cold hearted bastard, but it's the easiest way to relieve the pressure. If Rolston disappears at the same time, all the better. Also, it's possible to get something back for Elias, although it would have to be around half/less than half of his cap figure to make sense.

Chicago is a total disasterpiece right now. They're at (I'm too lazy to look) $54.5M or something like that with 14 player and a cap penalty. That's not really what I aspire to be, but they would have to have alot of hits with the prospects to get there. And make bad goalie decisions post-Marty.


chicago will be fine, and they made some absolutely disastrous mistakes, chief among them, huet. i would try to avoid dealing elias for a number of reasons, but i do agree that the devils could actually get something back for him.

Edited by Triumph, 05 July 2010 - 11:16 PM.

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#840 Neb00rs

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 11:13 PM

If Kovalchuk was the gamechanger you make him out to be, what happened wouldn't have happened. He's a very good player. He is not some elite superhuman god that will turn the league on its ear. Don't be too annoyed if he turns into an annual 35/40 goal scorer and 80 point player. It would be nice if he went apesh!t and lived up to his contract, and this 3 months was just a hiccup, but I'm not expecting it.

Please don't start comparing him to Scott Stevens now. The transition period here is going to be annoying enough. :lol:

You can't judge Kovy after only playing on the team for 3 months. He was a point a game guy while joining a team with a completely new style and being miscoached.

Also, I can totally compare Kovy to Scott Stevens. Kovy probably will go down as one of the best LW's of all time and Scott is one of the best d-men of all time. My point was not that they are similiar players but that they both change the way opposing teams play.
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