94 replies to this topic

[nmigliore]

I'll put up previews and predictions for the Division Series, but just type predictions (eg: 'team x in y amount of games') for the League Championship Series and the World Series since I'm too lazy to type up a bunch of extra crap.

NLDS, Phillies vs Reds
- Phils have an overpowering rotation of Halladay-Oswalt-Hamels, strong lineup, and a decent late-game bullpen. Reds' are heavily dependent on the likely NL MVP Joey Votto. Their rotation has a lot of inexperience and they'll probably count a lot on veteran starter Bronson Arroyo, who pitched over his head this year (4.61 FIP, 4.66 tERA).

Prediction: Phillies in 4.

NLDS, Giants vs Braves
- Giants have a very good rotation headed by Lincecum and Cain. Their lineup is about middle-of-the-pack, though that's a major upgrade from last season when they couldn't hit a lick and had Bengie Molina batting cleanup (yikes). Their bullpen is pretty solid; Brian Wilson was one of the better closers in baseball this year. Atlanta doesn't have much hitting outside of Heyward, McCann, and Prado. Losing Chipper Jones was a killer. Decent rotation, though Hudson has been pitching over his head this year, so maybe he'll run into some regression. Or not. We'll see. Their bullpen is one of the best in baseball, but I worry about their lineup not doing much against the Giants' pitching staff. I'm thinking we'll see a pitcher-dominant series....

Prediction: Giants in 5.

ALDS, Rays vs Rangers
- I'm not sold on Tampa Bay. They don't have that much hitting past Longoria (who has been battling a quad injury) and Crawford. Price and Shields is a quality 1-2 punch, but Garza (4.41 FIP) has pitched over his head, as has Jeff Niemmann (4.65 FIP). Their bullpen is at least a strong point. I'd consider using Hellickson as a starter, but I don't think they plan to do that. Texas on the other hand is really growing on me. They have an excellent 1-2-3 of Lee-Wilson-Lewis to lead their playoff rotation. Their bullpen is very good (5 relievers with an FIP of 3.50 or less, [minimum 30 IP]), and they can rake with soon-to-be-AL-MVP Josh Hamilton, slugger Nelson Cruz, and terrific low-cost signing Vlad Guerrero. David Murphy, Ian Kinsler, and Michael Young are pretty decent hitters too. If Josh Hamilton can get over his rib issues, watch out.

Prediction: Rangers in 4.

ALDS, Twins vs Yankees
- Minnesota is a very well-balanced team; they can hit, they can throw good starting pitching at you, and they have a great bullpen. Unfortunately, they can't seem to ever beat the Yankees. Minnesota is going to have to depend a lot on Jim Thome and Joe Mauer; not having Justin Morneau might be the difference maker in this series. Francisco Liriano (+6.0 fWAR) had an incredibly underrated season to lead their rotation. Some of their other starters like Baker, Duensing, Slowey, and Pavano aren't that overpowering, and mainly get by by throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the park, however, going up against the best lineup in baseball (the Yankees), and playing some games at the launching pad in the Bronx, this could be a bad matchup. The Yankees have some questions of their own, mainly about how good or bad their starting pitching will be after Sabathia (Pettitte hasn't pitched much since July, Hughes has been brutal in the 2nd half, and Burnett/Vazquez have stunk all year), and I believe Minnesota will put up a good fight, but I still like the Pinstripes' chances.

Prediction: Yankees in 5.


NLCS, Phillies vs Giants
Prediction: Phillies in 6.

ALCS, Yankees vs Rangers
Prediction: Rangers in 5.

World Series, Phillies vs Rangers
Prediction: Rangers in 6.

Edited by nmigliore, 04 October 2010 - 12:39 PM.

[Martyisth3b3st]

I'm a Yankees homer, no doubt, but I will eat my shoe if the Rangers beat the Rays in 4 games, followed by the Yankees in 5. No way . If they beat the rays, it will be in 5 games. For the record, I don't think they'll even make it out of the first round. And if the Yankees do prevail and face the Rangers, no way they take the Yankees in 5 games. That would mean they beat CC Sabathia in an elimination game for the Yankees, and I don't see it.

[nmigliore]

I'm a Yankees homer, no doubt, but I will eat my shoe if the Rangers beat the Rays in 4 games, followed by the Yankees in 5. No way . If they beat the rays, it will be in 5 games. For the record, I don't think they'll even make it out of the first round. And if the Yankees do prevail and face the Rangers, no way they take the Yankees in 5 games. That would mean they beat CC Sabathia in an elimination game for the Yankees, and I don't see it.

I think Texas can beat Sabathia if they have Lee on the hill. Sabathia is very good, but hes not Lee-type good.

The Yankees' rotation is what would worry me the most. If you told me Pettitte will be Pettitte and Hughes will be 1st half of 2010 Hughes, then the Yankees would probably be my World Series pick. They certainly have enough offense, and their bullpen is decent.

I suppose picking Texas in 5 games is a bit crazy, but I hate trying to nail the games part of the prediction, and I feel as if Texas has the starting pitching advantage of every game (Lee v Sabathia, Wilson v Pettitte, and Lewis v Hughes).

As for the Rays, I just don't think they are as good as people think, at least not this season. Again, Price and Shields, by saber-standards, were fine this season, but Garza, Niemman, and Davis weren't all that great. Their bullpen is very good, but their lineup isn't that scary past Longoria and Crawford.

Texas is just a really-rounded team. If I had to pick a weakness about them it would be concerns about a 4th starter (Feldman, Harden, and Hunter have stunk) and Josh Hamilton's ribs.

Edited by nmigliore, 04 October 2010 - 01:03 PM.

[PeteyNice]

NLDS, Phillies vs Reds
No contest. Inexperienced Reds no match for veteran Phils.


Prediction: Phillies in 3.

NLDS, Giants vs Braves
- The Braves have one legitimate major league OFer. Their bullpen features The F-Word, Kyle Farnsworth. Are you kidding me?
Prediction: Giants in 3.

ALDS, Rays vs Rangers
- Cliff Lee? CLIFF LEE!!!!!!!!!!!!! (a theme begins...)
Prediction: Rangers in 5.

ALDS, Twins vs Yankees
- Much like the man mentioned above owns the Yankees, the Bombers own the Twins. They are our bitches and always fall at the sight of the mighty pinstripes. Sure, the Yankees rotation after Sabathia is a little shaky, but I think they could send Nick Swisher out there and still beat Glass Carl.

Prediction: Yankees in 4.


NLCS, Phillies vs Giants
Prediction: Phillies in 6 - both teams have good pitching, Giants have less hitting

ALCS, Yankees vs Rangers
Prediction: Rangers in 7. - Rangers won't make Phillies mistake, Lee starts 3 times and wins them all.

World Series, Phillies vs Rangers
Prediction: Rangers in 7 - Cliff Lee for MVP.

[Jerrydevil]

I think they could send Nick Swisher out there and still beat Glass Carl.

You probably said the same sentence a few years ago, with Kenny Rogers' name instead.

Twins in 3. This Yankee team will fold after Sabathia loses Game 1, and get humiliated.

[PeteyNice]

You probably said the same sentence a few years ago, with Kenny Rogers' name instead.

Twins in 3. This Yankee team will fold after Sabathia loses Game 1, and get humiliated.

Care to make an avatar bet on that?

[Jerrydevil]

Care to make an avatar bet on that?

No. I've been wrong too many times, and I can't look at a Yankee avatar. I will spiral into depression.

[nmigliore]

Assuming these results hold up, this is not good for the Rays to drop Game 1. Shields is decent (4.23 FIP) but after that, its hard to like guys like Garza (4.41 FIP), Niemann (4.65 FIP), or Davis (4.79 FIP). And like I said in the preview, after Crawford and Longoria, there isn't a ton of hitting.

Edit: And just as I type this, Ben Zobrist goes yard. Funny. The Rays really needs him and Carlos Pena, whose struck out in all 3 of his at bats, to step up.

I suppose the silver lining is they won't face Cliff Lee for the next couple games, though C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis are both very good.

Edited by nmigliore, 06 October 2010 - 03:01 PM.

[nmigliore]

Orlando Cabrera is hitting a whopping .240/.275/.326 vs RHP this year.

I know I'm just beating a dead horse since Cabrera has hit at the top of the order all year, but oh Dusty, what are you thinking.

[devilsrule33]

Roy Halladay 2-out RBI. Got to love it! Still can't believe I am finally watching him pitch in the playoffs.

[CMONLOU]

Roy Halladay 2-out RBI. Got to love it! Still can't believe I am finally watching him pitch in the playoffs.

+1

Way overdue for a great pitcher...

Prediction:

Phillies in a breeze..in 5 over whomever comes out of the AL..and you thought Lou just cared about Panera

Edited by CMONLOU, 06 October 2010 - 05:14 PM.

[nmigliore]

Roy Halladay 2-out RBI. Got to love it! Still can't believe I am finally watching him pitch in the playoffs.

Still hasn't allowed a hit yet either (sorry if this ends up being a jinx); hes making a top-5 lineup in baseball look pretty silly.

The Phillies are just too overpowering in a short series like this with Halladay-Hamels-Oswalt. I wouldn't be surprised if they pull off a sweep quite honestly, though I gotta believe the Reds will manage do to some kind of damage against one of them.

I kinda feel bad for the Reds, I mean their team is very solid - like I mentioned, a top-5 lineup in baseball (though a ton of it has to do with Joey Votto), and while their rotation might not have a true ace, it does have 4 starters with an FIP of 4.00 or less. They just are facing the wrong opponent in a best-of-5 series.

Edited by nmigliore, 06 October 2010 - 06:16 PM.

[nmigliore]

Amazing. I know this somewhat goes against the stats since there were numerous pitchers with better peripheral stats (FIP) this year, but I don't think there is a better overall pitcher in baseball than Halladay.

I can't stand the Phillies, so there was some pain in watching him throw that, but I'll block that out for a minute and say congrats to Halladay and all of the the Jays fans, like Dr33, who have been supporting him since his rookie year.

Edited by nmigliore, 06 October 2010 - 06:51 PM.

[devilsrule33]

Now that is how you enter the post-season. Simply incredible. 1 playoff game. 1 no-hitter.

[grcenter47]

this performance by doc worries me as a yankees fan

[thefiestygoat]

this performance by doc worries me as a yankees fan

I wouldn't worry about it. We have to worry about the Twins first. Go Yankees!

[nmigliore]

If you're Sabathia, you really can't be pitching around Jason Kubel, who has never been any good vs LHP, to get to Valencia. I mean sure, Valencia is a 'rookie' (as if that should carry much meaning), but he had a great half a season and crushed LHP with a .374/.441/.525 slash line in 99 PA against them.

Edit: Teixeira takes Crain deep for 2 runs, so I guess its not a big deal now.

Edited by nmigliore, 06 October 2010 - 10:10 PM.

[grcenter47]

If you're Sabathia, you really can't be pitching around Jason Kubel, who has never been any good vs LHP, to get to Valencia. I mean sure, Valencia is a 'rookie' (as if that should carry much meaning), but he had a great half a season and crushed LHP with a .374/.441/.525 slash line in 99 PA against them.

Edit: Teixeira takes Crain deep for 2 runs, so I guess its not a big deal now.

Yankees never seem to disappoint but that bases loaded walk did worry me

[Jerrydevil]

I find myself saying the same thing I did last year when the Twins played the Yankees. When the Yankees are ripe to be beat (Sabathia was below average yesterday)the Twins can't rise to the occasion. As a passionate Yankee hater, that is extremely frustrating to me.

[grcenter47]

I have to admit that Curtis Granderson has been having a great 2nd half and hopefully it carries over into the playoffs