Yankee contract source
I'd say no to a Burnett for Dunn swap even though the Yankees have an excess of starting pitchers and one could hope that Dunn turns it around into becoming part of the player he once was. The reason the trade doesn't make sense is from a stricly financial standpoint.
Burnett's Contract: 2012: $16.5M 2013: $16.5M
Dunn's Contract: 2012: $14M 2013: $15M 2014: $15M
Dunn's contract pays him into 2014 opposed to Burnett's which ends after 2013. The Yankees have numerous issues revolving around 2014. First and foremost, they are on record saying that they need to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold for financial reasons. They also will want to be in play to sign Hamels or Cain (though it looks like the Giants will lock him up). In addition to that, Granderson and Cano will be due big raises and it looks unlikely they'll be able to keep Swisher around. There is just no way the Yankees can afford to take on any salary on a risky player like Dunn in 2014. They'll already have to get creative to sign Hamels and keep their own players. Even without taking on salary, the Yankees may have to let Granderson go in order to sign Hamels unless Cashman can get really creative.
Sidenote: I really wish they locked up Cano last year or even this winter. They may have been able to negotiate a more favorable per year salary and they would've ended up signing him for more of his prime years as opposed to what they'll have to do after 2013 when he will be 31 and the long term deal he wlll get will eat up some of his decline years.
I really don't think the Yankees will get under $189 anytime soon unless they do a firesale to some other team. They're committed to ~$75 MM to 4 players in the 2014 year (Tex, CC, ARod, Jeter's option buyout). This assumes that Jeter is going to have his option declined/decline it himself or he will retire before the choice has to be made; it's probably closer to ~$85 million if that option gets picked up, and realistically if Cano continues to play at his level he's looking at a raise from his $14MM. For the purposes of this exercise, however, let's assume that Cano stays at a flat $14MM for that year. That means you have the following players under team control:
SP: CC, Nova (ARB1), Pineda (ARB1)
RP: Robertson (ARB3), Wade (ARB2)
C: Cervelli (ARB2)
OF: Gardner (ARB3)
C: Cervelli (ARB2)
It's hard to project this salary with so many arb cases, but assuming we want to retain all of these guys in 2014, a salary of $120 MM right here is not unheard of considering ~$75 MM is due Tex/Arod/CC, and we're assuming that Cano bumps it up to $90 MM. That means we need a starting-caliber SS, at least one starting-caliber OF, a starting-caliber C, some guy to hit DH, a sh!t-ton of relievers (also assuming best-case that Robertson picks up where Mo left off after the end of his next contract) and another starter ON TOP OF signing Hamels. Yes our next SS and RF will probably come cheaper than the combined $25 MM that Jeter and Swisher make to help ease this pain, but the next realistic chance the Yankees have of getting under the L-Tax is probably the 2017 season, when CC and Tex drop off the books. This of course could also be jeopardized by the likely massive contract we're paying Hamels to come to New York.
EDIT: And this is one of the reasons I like the deal of Monteiro for Pineda: Pitchers are way more money than defensively-challenged offensive C/1B/DH's
Edited by Hi, I'm VALUE!, 26 January 2012 - 01:01 AM.
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