i admit i engaged in this process before, but we can't really play this game. all we can say is that in general, if one thinks that the talent is equally good, it's sensible to trade down. it's also sensible to trade down when one thinks that the player that one really wants will be available later.
i happen to disagree with that assessment re: urbom and cormier, especially since it's made with after-the-fact knowledge. this draft doesn't have a huge top end. if you can get an additional 1st round pick for moving down, in addition to a high 1st rounder and maybe a prospect, maybe you do it. it's not something to be opposed to.
these guys have NTCs, that's an issue with blowing up their trade value. they're also not very good, either of them. they'll get 2nds or an equivalent prospect.
I don't disagree with the general premise that picking up extra assets for trading down can be a good thing, especially as you get deeper in the draft when it's just a crapshoot anyway. My point is that I don't think it's a great idea to use the 1st overall as the chip to get those extra 2nd rounders and mid range prospects as was the idea presented by the OP. I appreciate the opinions about prospects presented here since I don't see any of these guys more than the few times in the World Juniors but the top end guys are so well scouted these days that I'm not buying the guy going 7th will be better. I want quality over quantity, so regardless or whether we agree that the difference is worth Urbom and Cormier, the 1st pick has been significantly better than the 7th pick 90% of the time over the last 10 years. This year it seems that the dropoff is after the top 2, so I would hope we can get one of them.
Also, you lost me on Arnott and Langs because I think we agree that they are both worth a 2nd rounder, which is exactly what something around the 37th overall is.
Edited by Lateralous, 05 January 2011 - 10:41 PM.