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NHL 2011 Draft Lottery


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#1 ZeroGravityFat

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 09:40 AM

3.6% chance, who's feeling lucky? Has it ever been pulled off?

Edited by ZeroGravityFat, 11 April 2011 - 11:32 AM.

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#2 David Puddy

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 11:10 AM

It has. We have the 8th pick. In 1999, Chicago won the lottery and moved from 8th to 4th. In 1995, LA moved from 7th to 3rd. Those are the only times a team outside the "top" 5 won the draft lottery since it started in 1995.
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#3 GoArmySports

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 11:21 AM

Can someone explain this rule to me?

"Per NHL rules, the Club selected in the Draft Drawing may not move up more than four positions in the draft order. Thus, the only Clubs with the opportunity to receive the first overall selection are the five teams with the lowest regular-season point totals, or the Clubs that acquired an eligible Club's first-round draft pick. No club will move down more than one position as a result of the Draft Drawing."
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#4 DevilNurn

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 11:23 AM

It would be real interesting if we got into the top 5 but I think we'll be 8th. I'm not too worried since as we've all heard, this draft class isn't too different outside the top 7 or 8 so we'll most likely end up with a pretty decent player no matter what happens.
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#5 MadDog2020

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 11:26 AM

Btw, the lottery is at 8 PM tomorrow. Not 8 AM. :P
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#6 ZeroGravityFat

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 11:32 AM

lol fixed. i thought it was odd when i misread the am.
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#7 Devilsfan118

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 11:35 AM

We won't win the lottery, Uncle Gary hates us, remember?

..but seriously, I have a hard time believing we have any chance of actually winning.


...then again, gary could use this opportunity as a "Sorry for the dick fine Lou, but it was just to save face...we'll give you a better pick this year to compensate" sorta thing
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#8 Devils731

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 11:39 AM

Can someone explain this rule to me?

"Per NHL rules, the Club selected in the Draft Drawing may not move up more than four positions in the draft order. Thus, the only Clubs with the opportunity to receive the first overall selection are the five teams with the lowest regular-season point totals, or the Clubs that acquired an eligible Club's first-round draft pick. No club will move down more than one position as a result of the Draft Drawing."


I'll try to keep it short and simple, possibly bordering on too simple:

Only 1 team wins the lottery. That teams moves up 4 spots, or to first overall if that is less than 4 spots away. Everyone else stays the same or moves back 1 spot if the team who won the lottery jumped them.

So Devils can pick 4th, if they win the lottery, 8th if a team in front of them wins the lottery or the lottery winner is more than 4 spots behind them, of 9th if the lottery winner is a team in the 9-12 spots.
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#9 thelastonealive

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 11:40 AM

Can someone explain this rule to me?

"Per NHL rules, the Club selected in the Draft Drawing may not move up more than four positions in the draft order. Thus, the only Clubs with the opportunity to receive the first overall selection are the five teams with the lowest regular-season point totals, or the Clubs that acquired an eligible Club's first-round draft pick. No club will move down more than one position as a result of the Draft Drawing."


The only possible draft choices we can have are 4 (if we win the lottery), 8 (if all stays the same), or 9 (if a team moving up four spots bumps us backwards).

The way I understand it, 8 is the most likely but 9 is a real possibility as well. 4 is highly unlikely.
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#10 Risky

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 11:44 AM

Can someone explain this rule to me?

"Per NHL rules, the Club selected in the Draft Drawing may not move up more than four positions in the draft order. Thus, the only Clubs with the opportunity to receive the first overall selection are the five teams with the lowest regular-season point totals, or the Clubs that acquired an eligible Club's first-round draft pick. No club will move down more than one position as a result of the Draft Drawing."


It means that if you're picking in the 1-5 slots and you win the lottery, you are awarded the 1st overall pick. All teams who miss the playoffs participate in the lottery. Any team picking higher than 5th (us) who wins the lottery doesn't receive the 1st overall pick. Instead, they move up 4 slots, bumping down the teams they leap-frog by a slot. So if the Devils won the lottery, we would pick 4th overall and the team slated to pick 5th would pick 6th instead, and so on down the line until our original slot (8th). So the 7th team picks 8th instead, but the 9th team still picks 9th. Given that our chances are only 3.6%, it's highly unlikely that we move up, but it's also unlikely that we get bumped down to 9th.

Illustrated for example:

1) Edmonton
2) Colorado
3) Florida
4) Ottawa
5) NYI
6) Columbus
7) Atlanta
8) NJD
9) Minnesota

If NJD won the lottery...

1) Edmonton
2) Colorado
3) Florida
4) NJD
5) Ottawa
6) NYI
7) Columbus
8) Atlanta
9) Minnesota

The only possible draft choices we can have are 4 (if we win the lottery), 8 (if all stays the same), or 9 (if a team moving up four spots bumps us backwards).

The way I understand it, 8 is the most likely but 9 is a real possibility as well. 4 is highly unlikely.


The only way we get 9th is if a team below us (with even lower probability than 3.6%) wins the lottery. So us picking 9th is less likely than us picking 4th, but both are incredibly unlikely.
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#11 Devils731

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 11:44 AM

The only possible draft choices we can have are 4 (if we win the lottery), 8 (if all stays the same), or 9 (if a team moving up four spots bumps us backwards).

The way I understand it, 8 is the most likely but 9 is a real possibility as well. 4 is highly unlikely.


Moving up to 4th is 3.6% likely.

Staying 8th is 89% likely

Moving to 9th is 7.4% likely
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Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

-Terry Goodkind


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#12 Risky

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 11:47 AM

Actually I think 731 has it. Man I don't miss sadistics. You combine the probability of all the teams below us being awarded a higher pick. So it's twice as likely that we pick 9th versus picking 4th, but both events are extremely unlikely, on the order of Clarkson scoring on a wraparound.
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe... Attack ships on fire off the shoulder
of Orion. I've watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser Gate.
All those moments will be lost in time... like tears in the rain.

#13 Devilsfan118

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 11:51 AM

Actually I think 731 has it. Man I don't miss sadistics. You combine the probability of all the teams below us being awarded a higher pick. So it's twice as likely that we pick 9th versus picking 4th, but both events are extremely unlikely, on the order of Clarkson scoring on a wraparound.


Woah woah, let's not get into your personal history... :lol:
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#14 David Puddy

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 12:11 PM

Can someone explain this rule to me?

"Per NHL rules, the Club selected in the Draft Drawing may not move up more than four positions in the draft order. Thus, the only Clubs with the opportunity to receive the first overall selection are the five teams with the lowest regular-season point totals, or the Clubs that acquired an eligible Club's first-round draft pick. No club will move down more than one position as a result of the Draft Drawing."


Man that is worded very confusingly. Basically, if you're 1-5 and you win, you get the first pick. Otherwise, you move up 4 spots.
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#15 David Puddy

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 12:18 PM

Also, the lottery only affects the first round; all other rounds use the original order.
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#16 Scoopscj

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 12:44 PM

With this draft class being weaker, do we give up the pick and take the 'penalty' for kovy contract for this draft? Interesting thought.


Scoops
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#17 CarpathianForest

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 12:47 PM

With this draft class being weaker, do we give up the pick and take the 'penalty' for kovy contract for this draft? Interesting thought.


Scoops


Sorry, but dumb ideas don't count as "interesting."
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#18 Risky

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 12:48 PM

NO!

As has been discussed multiple times, the Devils are unlikely to pick this high again for many years to come. They will surrender a pick when they're picking 20+ in an unexciting draft class.
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe... Attack ships on fire off the shoulder
of Orion. I've watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser Gate.
All those moments will be lost in time... like tears in the rain.

#19 CarpathianForest

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 12:49 PM

Can someone explain this rule to me?

"Per NHL rules, the Club selected in the Draft Drawing may not move up more than four positions in the draft order. Thus, the only Clubs with the opportunity to receive the first overall selection are the five teams with the lowest regular-season point totals, or the Clubs that acquired an eligible Club's first-round draft pick. No club will move down more than one position as a result of the Draft Drawing."



"First shalt thou take out the Holy Pin, then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out. Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch towards thy foe, who being naughty in My sight, shall snuff it."

WTF?!?!?!
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#20 thelastonealive

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Posted 11 April 2011 - 12:59 PM

"First shalt thou take out the Holy Pin, then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out. Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch towards thy foe, who being naughty in My sight, shall snuff it."

WTF?!?!?!


1...
2...

5!!!

I mean, 3!
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