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Triumph

Member Since 08 Sep 2002
Online Last Active Today, 12:00 AM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: What were the Devils thinking?

Yesterday, 03:47 PM

It should be noted that this happened in December 93.

 

I do have sympathy for these guys, but on the other hand I can't imagine Peluso in 93 asking for a second opinion.  The guys want to play, the GM wants them to as well, and that's how the culture persists.  It's really not the NHL that needs fixing - I mean it 100% does, but it's a place where grown men are making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year - but I cannot imagine how much more negligent things are at lower levels.

In Topic: 2015 Draft Thread

24 April 2015 - 05:21 PM

he didn't predict it - he was basically the first to report it maybe a day before it was actually done.

 

As I recall, Potvin's offhand remark was several days before Kovalchuk was actually traded, and after that came Waddell/Dudley taking in the Lowell Devils one night and everything else.

In Topic: What NHL forward is currently worth the 6th pick

24 April 2015 - 10:52 AM

Burke had to do 100 things in the 1999 draft to get both Sedins if I remember correctly.

 

Oh yeah, you're not kidding.  Wow, 99 had like 5 1st round picks traded, what a crazy draft.  Too bad all those players turned out to be sh!t.

In Topic: What NHL forward is currently worth the 6th pick

24 April 2015 - 10:35 AM

2 trades of top ten picks in three years doesn't make it seem like such a rarity. And in this case, if maybe not for the sixth pick, Edmonton is a pretty good match to make a trade to be able to draft one of Provorov, Hanifin or Warenski. Unless they want to take a shot and see if Kylington is still around at 16.

Otherwise, Lou's comments about the sixth pick are encouraging. It could be a total bust, but at least it's even more clear that he isn't blind to reality. It'll show in the second and third rounds though if he cuts it out with drafting size over skill, I.e no more Connor Chathams over Brayden Points.


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2 out of the last 3 drafts, sure.  When you look at 2 picks moved out of the last I dunno, 15 drafts, it starts to look less common.  I really can't remember it happening much.  Oh, the Rangers traded for the 4th overall in 99, so there's that.  Philadelphia dealt for 4th overall in 2002.  Different era though - bonuses could be an issue back then, now they're not.  It's worth noting that both of those trades happened with Tampa.

In Topic: What NHL forward is currently worth the 6th pick

23 April 2015 - 02:08 PM

There's the standard definitive and biased triumph statement that I've missed as of late.

 

I don't think Severson is already ahead of Larsson, and I'd be interested to read what's convinced you of that.  Care to explain the "insane shooting luck" statement?  Larsson had a S% of 3.3%, while Severson had a 5.4% (3 goals on 91 shots, and 5 goals on 93 shots, respectively).  Severson certainly generated more shots per game, without a doubt.  But going off basic statistics, that's literally the only advantage Severson had over Larsson.  Larsson had a better overall season, a better PPG, was a positive +/- (Severson came in at -13), and regularly logged significantly more minutes than Severson did once the coaching change occurred and he was given a fair shot.

 

I'm obviously not rooting against the kid, but I just don't get this infatuation several of you have with him.

 

And I'm not going to argue semantics with you - the second-season dip in production and/or effectiveness has happened countless times.  Whether that's because the kid overachieved his first season is irrelevant - a dip in production is a dip in production.  That's what I'm saying.  Are you saying that Severson's first season was fluky?

 

No, not a lot of Larsson's shots went in, I agree.  So yeah, Larsson didn't have 'insane shooting luck' and I should be more careful about how I use words.  What he did have was an insane IPP.  IPP is the number of points a player gets divided by the total number of goals scored while he is on the ice.  Larsson got points on 61% of the goals the Devils scored while he was on the ice, which sounds not that remarkable, but it's actually the highest of any defenseman this year.  Is that sustainable?  Well, no, it's not - when you zoom out and look at multiple years, it becomes more difficult to do that.  The highest is Karlsson at 51.5%.  I'm not sure that Larsson really controls the offense in the way that it looked this year.  He has excellent breakout passing and his shot has improved and he can find guys in traffic, but I don't think he's an offensive dynamo.  He's above-average.  I just don't think with his skating and shot that he is ever going to be an excellent offensive player.

 

How is it 'semantics'?  Semantics is literally going to be me arguing that you don't know what semantics means.  The idea that every sophomore struggles, or even that most do, is wrong.  It just appears that way because it's much easier to think of 1st year players who didn't live up to that 1st year (basically a ton of players who won the Calder Trophy/were nominated).  There is no 'best 2nd year player' trophy.  How about Steven Stamkos?  Nicklas Backstrom?  Paul Kariya had a fine first season - he exploded in his 2nd year.  Same with Peter Forsberg.  And you know what?  I had to look this up too, because I honestly didn't know.  But compare this list of 1st year forwards to this list of 2nd year forwards and tell me the sophomore slump is common - 19 70 point seasons versus 6 for 1st year players, 38 60 point seasons versus 14 for 1st year players, etc.

 

I don't think Severson's 1st season is fluky at all and I don't think he will have a dip in production - quite the opposite.  Yes, he was eased back into the lineup, and yes his shots on goal dipped a lot when he was moved away from Greene/the power play was changed to Adam Oates's idiocy.  He's got tremendous talent and he's already showed the ability to take over shifts in a way that most rookies cannot.  He's a star in the making, and it sucks if you can't see it.