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Triumph

Member Since 08 Sep 2002
Offline Last Active Yesterday, 11:50 PM
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#1274297 NJ/Albany Minor Transactions Thread (was Thomson/Johnson thread)

Posted by Triumph on 27 July 2014 - 09:59 AM

From 01-07, our scouting as absolutely abysmal.  Aside from Henrique, Parise, Zajac and Fayne, there was absolutely no talent in that 7 year period.  I think it is fair to say that the last five years, they've been much better drafting

 

Edit: if it wasn't for picking up key UDFA like Greene and Clarkson, it would've looked a lot worse

 

Where I give credit to scouting staffs is when players look like NHLers all the way up until they actually don't, especially with later-round picks.  So yeah, Hoeffel is a miss - year 2 of his NCAA career and he didn't look like he'd be anything worthwhile.  Still, people like Palmieri and Halischuk have or had NHL careers - they're not bad picks.  Obviously that doesn't win you NHL hockey games to say 'Oh, well Nick Palmieri was a half-decent player until his career fell apart and this year he was 5th in scoring on his German league team', but they identified players with NHL-level talent, which isn't easy to do.

 

Maybe what we can take from this is that our scouts are much better with North American prospects than they are with Europeans. It's to the point where I'd rather they just draft North Americans. It can't all just be bad luck with the Europeans we've drafted recently.

 

The Devils really haven't drafted that many European players overall.  Sticking to North America is a good way to fall behind other organizations who aren't categorically rejecting 25% of the player pool for no good reason.  And again, under the system I outlined above, someone like Urbom is a success.  He skates like an NHLer, he's got an NHLer's body, he just can't play NHL-level defense.  They identified a good player and a lot of stuff happened since he was drafted and he didn't make it all the way there.  I'd say the same thing about Josefson - who knows what he is without all the injury setbacks?  But if you can draft 5 Urboms in the 3rd and 4th round over the course of 5 years and one guy turns out to be Henrik Tallinder and the other 4 wash out in different ways, I think as an organization you'd take that.


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#1273694 Kovalchuk Retired Effective Immediately?

Posted by Triumph on 15 July 2014 - 10:12 AM

Beat that horse guys! Beat it til its dead again!

 

You don't have to click on the thread. Failing that, you certainly don't have to post.


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#1272835 Cammalleri - 5 years at $5M

Posted by Triumph on 06 July 2014 - 06:22 PM

I agree with this then. I apologize, I did not register your sarcasm. JMI I don't think was sarcastic though.

 

MacIsaac made a one line post whose meaning I'm sure is the same as sundstrom's and mine and whose meaning you have finally sussed out in your reply to me -  "You could say "we got 20 goals better because Cory will start full time this year" - that is fair."  That's all Jason was trying to say.  

 

I also made no contradiction.  When I talk about a #1 goalie, I'm not talking about one guy getting 45 games and the other one gets 37.  I am talking about that Schneider starts, without question, all non back to back games (or some back to backs and rests against some weaker opponents).  A guy who gets those games almost regardless of how poorly he is doing.  With Brodeur on the team, Schneider would never be in that position.


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#1272582 Cammalleri - 5 years at $5M

Posted by Triumph on 03 July 2014 - 12:03 AM

Cammalleri got 9.2 S/60 last year, second best among the top 5 UFA forwards (Vanek with 9.9). He had the best Corsi Rel (+6.7) and a pretty unlucky PDO (but mostly because lol goalies in CGY). Considering what the other guys on that list got...NJ didn't do badly at all and the only objection is term but hey July 1.

http://www.extraskat...,395,94,167,438

 

Keep this in mind: Zubrus spent a lot of time on the top line and only averaged 5 S/60. Cammalleri is a huge upgrade in that regard, someone who actually can shoot the damn thing and do it well. I don't have split stats for Ruutu but he averaged 5.7 last year.  

 

Also curiously...when Cammalleri and Giordano were on the ice together, they had a 61% CF (and 77% GF in 300 mins). Cammalleri was 50% without Giordano but Giordano on 46% without Cammalleri (600 mins). Obviously this is b/c CGY's second line stunk in possession, but my point is that if you stick Cammalleri with Jagr and Zajac, find a workable d-partner for Greene (Merrill would be best I think), you'll see more goals. Hopefully, a lot. 

 

This is a bit misleading, because these Extra Skater stats are in all situations.  5 on 5 Cammalleri was actually 8th among UFAs in shots/60 - Thomas Vanek and Brad Richards are the only notable names who beat him out, the rest are guys who Clarkson the puck to the net at every opportunity they get - but Cammalleri is also an excellent shooter, so he ranked 9th overall in the league in goals/60 at ES..  When you move to the power play, Cammalleri ranked first in shots/60 among free agent forwards.  Overall Cammalleri ranks 15th in the league in G/60 at ES over the last 3 years (minimum 1500 minutes).  I'm more psyched about this signing the more I look into it.


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#1269931 Trade: Hartnell to CBJ for Umberger and a 4th

Posted by Triumph on 23 June 2014 - 07:01 PM

Flyers: Weber :: Devils: Kovalchuk - both fanbases need to give up on that player ever being there.


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#1269715 Redrafting the 1994 and 2004 classes.

Posted by Triumph on 22 June 2014 - 08:37 PM

Tough to say. Right now, I think I'd take Malkin. Its easy for me to say that because he has a Cup and a Conn Smythe on his resume, while Ovechkin has ugotz in terms of playoff success- personal or team- on his and is one of the worst defensive players in the league. But their careers aren't over either and Ovechkin should reach 1,000 points within the next 3-4 years or so. Its an interesting debate.

 

Alex Ovechkin's playoff career numbers:  58 games, 31 goals, 30 assists, 61 points, +9, 275 shots.  This is personal success.  He's 3rd in goals per game among players with a minimum of 20 playoff games (since 1996).  If his team hadn't let him down, he'd have been to a Stanley Cup Final at least by now.  

 

I mean, I think the choice is close, but people give Ovechkin grief for his playoff performances, when to me that just makes no sense at all.


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#1268810 The Official Rangers Suck Thread

Posted by Triumph on 15 June 2014 - 10:30 AM

The Rangers still suck.  Enjoy Dan Girardi for 6 more years.  Also, I'm never going to hear a Rangers fan talk about a quiet crowd in NJ ever again.


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#1268588 The official exhale thread

Posted by Triumph on 14 June 2014 - 12:46 AM

The Rangers weren't a 100 point team because they had a low shooting percentage - they shot under 8% as a team, which is hard to do.  (For the record, the NJ teams the last two years that fans were crying about having no finish both had better shooting percentages than this year's Rangers team).  

 

The Rangers don't have a lot of dynamite prospects ready for the NHL now, but they did sign two big-time UDFAs who might be contributors.  People always overlook those types of players when they evaluate prospects.  They also look to have had a ridiculous 2013 draft for a team that didn't have any 1st round picks.  

 

If I were in Sather's shoes, I'd do what I could to get Joe Thornton and maybe try to sign Dan Boyle and really go for it next year.  The East is not strong.  The Rangers' window isn't huge, it's as long as Lundqvist is an elite goalie.


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#1268555 The official exhale thread

Posted by Triumph on 14 June 2014 - 12:01 AM

The Rangers have an elite goalie and a lot of young players.  I wouldn't count them out of anything just yet, right now they're still the 2nd best team in the East behind the Bruins.  They were clearly not in the class of the Kings, but who is?

That said I'm obviously delighted with the result, and it's unlikely they get back there again, but there's a lot of good pieces over there, unfortunately.


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#1268185 Adam Larsson interview w/ hometown newspaper

Posted by Triumph on 12 June 2014 - 12:34 PM

I hear what you are saying, my point about the money isn't so much about what he made/could make but that he may just be irked a bit with the way things have gone. Of course he can earn a lot, lot more over here. Ignore the bonus, just this last year he lost a good bit of money having to play in the AHL when he shouldn't have been there. Even though he is already rich, I'm sure it's not a pleasant feeling.

 

But from another angle - he is a kid living halfway around the world and stuck with a coach that clearly doesn't think highly of him. I can see how that can be mentally draining. In general, sometimes I feel as fans, we don't realize how hard it can be for some of the European guys to come over and play here. Yeah they make a lot of money, but there is a mental aspect to it that can be hard for some guys, especially when things aren't going well.

 

But like I said before, I seriously doubt he goes back to Sweden.

 

I mean, I'm sure, but that's just stuff you have to fight through to become an NHL player.  I don't see where the coach doesn't think highly of him - I see a lot of quotes from DeBoer praising Larsson.  When Larsson was a healthy scratch early in the season, he deserved it.  He was not playing well at all.  And DeBoer said - Larsson looked great at training camp and is not playing well enough to stay in the lineup, and he was absolutely right.  It's the coach's job to make sure the best 18 skaters are dressed every night.  Then Gelinas and Merrill come up and play just as well as Larsson if not better and he has to earn his stripes in the AHL. 

 

Larsson wants to be on the NHL team next year and he will be, but all his playing time will be earned.  Leave aside the Salvadors of the world, that's not who he's competing against for ice time.  He's got to show he's as good as a guy like Mark Fayne and other than brief stretches in his NHL career he has not done that.


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#1267402 Devils re-sign Zidlicky

Posted by Triumph on 08 June 2014 - 09:44 AM

Larsson, our first round pick whom PDB refuses to play and has been wasting away in the minors. I actually didn't think Larsson would be a fit for this team, I was hoping for Coutourier. And don't get me started on Tedenby.

My point was the players we have drafted for the past 10 years have not made the impact we were expecting. I do hope Henrique becomes a very good player for this team but how many busted picks have we had for every Henrique? Nearly every first round pick sans Parise has been underwhelming. And the picks after the first round havent been great either. Zajac is a nice player, not a great player, ditto for Greene. Every team has them. Same for Merrill, Severson, and Fayne. As for firepower, our best players are Elias and Jagr (Ages 38 and 42 respectively). Again, i hope Henrique becomes an offensive weapon but that's a wildcard at this point.

As for free agents and player trades, I was happy we landed Kovy (not his contract) but that move was so out of character for Lou and his MO since the lockout has been signing utility players and then going after ex-Devils. Kovy was the exception. Putting Kovy aside, you'll never see this team acquire a forward like Jeff Carter via a trade. It's just not Lou's style.

As for Schneider, I'm with you on that 100%. I hope he becomes the man here. That's assuming of course that Brodeur leaves. I'm not so sure he will, despite his quotes in the papers about testing free agency. Will be interesting to see what transpires this offseason.

 

The players the Devils have drafted in the last 10 years have almost always been in the bottom 10 picks of the 1st round.  It is really difficult to find star players there.  So no, the Devils haven't drafted particularly well, but it isn't easy to draft well from there, and when you don't draft well, you create a vicious cycle where you are short draft picks every year because you have to patch holes on your roster every year.  NJ used to draft so well that they created a virtuous cycle - they would be able to sell players who weren't able to make the team for draft picks.  That's not happening anymore, in part because the league has caught up to some of the things NJ tends to do.

 

'Putting Kovy aside, you'll never see this team acquire a forward like Jeff Carter'  Hurr durr.  How about Jason Arnott, who was like Jeff Carter but without the years of NHL success?  How about Peter Stastny, Joe Nieuwendyk, and Doug Gilmour?  The Devils haven't had the kind of players that help you get a player like this and that's why they haven't done it.  And I agree that Carter specifically, I don't think Lou would trade for a player with an 11 year contract, but those are illegal now.  I mean you can't on the one hand run down NJ's drafting in the last 10 years then wonder why they haven't gotten a Jeff Carter type player.  You can't run down Lou's free agent acquisitions and wonder why he couldn't acquire other, better players in free agency - he uses free agency just like any other general manager now.  He's signed players who haven't played for NJ to 5 and 6 year deals.  It's hard to keep winning in the NHL.


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#1267099 The 2014 NJ Devils Offseason Thread

Posted by Triumph on 06 June 2014 - 10:43 AM

Urbom has agreed to join Severstal of the KHL.

 

What?! But he's NJ's 8th best prospect!  This is horrible


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#1267042 Trading one of the Young Defensemen

Posted by Triumph on 05 June 2014 - 08:29 PM

To me those guys sundstrom mentioned just don't move the needle.  Yes, NJ needs some better wingers.  I think Jurco, Tatar, Etem, Atkinson - they're all going to be fine players in this league, but all these guys are probably 2nd-line-on-a-good-team forwards.  45-50 point a season types.  Nice to have, certainly.  But without some better centers, NJ will be sunk.  Elias can only last so long.  Henrique is not a center, it's time they come to terms with this, or if he is, he's a very good 3rd line center/weak 2nd line center.

 

When I look at the 3 defensemen, I see Gelinas, who could be something really excellent.  It's not likely - Gelinas's play in the defensive zone this past year makes me think he will never quite figure it out.  The game will speed up and he'll get less panicky, but he will still be prone to mistakes.  But the Devils have not had something like Gelinas in a very, very long time - in fact, I can't think of the last time NJ had a D prospect like Gelinas, and that's because they've never had one, really.  Niedermayer scored from the back end but he was a different sort of player.  I look at some of what Gelinas does and I see Subban.  I don't want to give that possibility up, not for some 2nd line guy.  There's of course a strong chance that Gelinas will remain a 3rd pairing/fringe NHLer because he can't get his D game sorted out, and this post could look very foolish, but I just can't give that up.

 

Merrill's value got hurt by that Michigan incident - regardless, he came up and just didn't look out of place.  He's not going to score a ton but I think he could be a very effective D for the next decade - think Paul Martin.  And there's a slim chance that he becomes an elite defensive D with some offense to him.  I don't want to give that up especially because I think he'd be the least valuable of the 3 - I can't imagine GMs think particularly highly of him, but I do.

 

And then there's Larsson.  Him I would give up - I like him a lot and think he could be very good, but I imagine he has more value than the other two.  But he's still just 21 going on 22.  I'd want to get a 1st line forward back for him but I don't think that's possible.  I wouldn't give him up for any of the players sundstrom mentioned, or for players on that level.

 

I think waiting a year could be a good idea.  Severson will be more a known quantity.  Gelinas will demonstrate whether he can handle being an everyday D.  Larsson and Merrill should take steps forward or to the side.  NJ will have a better sense of what all these guys are, and they'll be able to make the right move with one of them.


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#1267001 Prospective Trade - Devils and Jets

Posted by Triumph on 05 June 2014 - 02:46 PM

Disregarding the specifics, do we really want ANOTHER Devils and Jets/Thashers trade? The last one was a major PITA. ;)

 

I didn't think that Alex Ponikarovsky was *that* bad.


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#1266928 2014 Draft Thread

Posted by Triumph on 05 June 2014 - 12:08 AM

Whyyyy?  Why take a gamble on a short guy when height, like it or not, is a significant factor in the NHL?  

 

No it isn't.  I mean, yeah, gimme two guys of equal skill and I'll take the bigger guy, but I don't really think that height is significant.  Tedenby's issue is not height, he's not fast enough, strong enough, or smart enough.  If he dominated the AHL and couldn't do much in the NHL, then maybe I'd think his height is an issue.  That's just not how it is.  Meanwhile some of NJ's best draft picks have been smaller players:  Sullivan, B. Gionta, Gomez, Sykora, etc., and Reid Boucher may continue that tradition.  


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