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Triumph

Member Since 08 Sep 2002
Online Last Active Today, 10:02 AM
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#1302129 Brodeur retires, joins STL front office

Posted by Triumph on 27 January 2015 - 04:02 PM

One of the greats, and we were all lucky to see him in New Jersey.  The 3 years Brodeur won a Stanley Cup, his stats were:  67 games, 48 wins, 19 losses, 1.64 GAA, .930 SV%.  And yet some of his great playoff performances have come recently - his 44 save shutout of the Carolina Hurricanes in 2009 and a 25 save performance in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2012 are highlights that don't come with Stanley Cups attached but that doesn't make them any less great.  And of course that that 2012 performance came 18 years after his first great playoff performance - what a career.

 

They made a rule to try to stop how good he was with the puck, but that didn't slow him down - 2 of his best years were after that rule was instituted.  He played his own style that no one else will play, and no one else will wear #30 for this franchise again.


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#1301800 Lou being sued

Posted by Triumph on 23 January 2015 - 02:36 PM

Hmm, so Lou supposedly called this guy incompetent, and this guy turned down a job elsewhere in 2012 to continue working for the Devils even though Vanderbeek was broke and almost certain to sell the team.  Sounds like he wasn't wrong.


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#1301460 The Transformation of Adam Larsson

Posted by Triumph on 20 January 2015 - 04:48 PM

I think I've been over this ground before, but I'm going to give a brief synopsis of how I perceive Adam Larsson's career as a Devil has gone - I will consult numbers for this, but they won't really augment my points that much, I don't think.

 

Year 1 (2011-12):  I can't remember who Larsson's first regular D partner was, but stats.hockeyanalysis tells me that Larsson's most common D partner was Bryce Salvador, and that sounds right.  The lineup was something like Tallinder-Fayne, Greene-Volchenkov, Salvador-Larsson.  Larsson struggled mightily on the power play in Year 1 even though he was the main QB - his shot differential was only 31 shots/60 minutes, which is pretty darn low, and the Devils gave up a lot of shorthanded goals.  His issue was chiefly slow decision-making - he wasn't sure what to do with the puck when he got it, and often thought he had more time than he did.  In addition, Larsson liked to hold on to the puck for as long as possible to see if a pass would develop. Compounding this was his slow acceleration - he'd never catch up if he lost the puck.  in short, he wasn't ready for that role and finally when Kurtis Foster arrived he was taken off the power play.  Still, despite skating issues, he was an effective defenseman and produced impressive breakout passes.  He was gaining confidence and playing reasonably well until he was hurt in February - he comes back and is given less ice time and doesn't appear to be making great decisions.  He's a healthy scratch through the first round of the playoffs, but gets in there against Philadelphia and looks quite good.  Then he's taken out against the Rangers and never gets back in.  Still, a good first year all in all - he broke even as a 19 year old NHL rookie, and that's really quite rare.

 

Year 2 (2012-13):  Larsson posts 19 points in 33 AHL games as the lockout eats up the beginning of the NHL season.  Even so, he's left out of the NHL rotation as the Devils go with 8 defensemen - he doesn't get into game action until Game 6.  Nothing really stands out to me about this year at all - he was mostly paired with Andy Greene and really did not look impressive - the breakout passes were there, but the rest of his game wasn't.  He struggled with gap control, he was slow to cover passes by the opposition, and of course he was being beaten wide far too often.  I think this year is when I noticed that Larsson takes a lot of hits in the D zone, more than his share.  

 

Year 3 (2013-14):  Larsson begins the season in the lineup.  He plays the first 2 games and is a -4.  He stays in for another game where he's even and is then a healthy scratch.  I think this is where DeBoer makes his comments about Larsson not being a -2 every game or whatever.  The issue isn't just that he's a -4, it's that he's being beaten wide in the same fashion as he had been last year.  There appeared to be no improvement in his skating.  Gelinas gets called up to the team in October and Larsson is his D partner early on and that D pairing does quite well - they get very well protected zone start wise but they're still doing quite good territorially.  Then Larsson gets hurt, goes down to the minors, and returns briefly at the end of the year.  Everything seems to be status quo.  His territorial numbers for the year look good but they're in a pretty small sample.

 

Year 4 (2014-15):  Larsson doesn't look particularly good in preseason, to my eyes.  He's scratched to begin the season and talks about how it's the most difficult thing that's happened to him in his career so far.  Trade rumors begin to form around the league about him - Garroich writes that piece about Larsson maybe being a trade piece but teams are wary because of his slow decision making.  When he finally gets into the lineup though, things appear different.  His breakout passes aren't as special, but he's no longer holding on to the puck as long - he's using the glass and the boards occasionally.  He's not taking huge hits seemingly every game.  His gap control isn't horrible, he's not getting turned around as often, and he really looks strong on the boards.  In addition, in the offensive zone he's not holding the puck looking for an open stick - the 'deflectable shot' that everyone talked about is gone.  Adam's just getting the puck and ripping it when he has a chance, generally.   It's again a small sample but the numbers are telling an interesting story for Adam this year - he's breaking even despite very difficult assignments.  He broke even in 2012-13 too, except that team was much better than this team - his Corsi Rel is positive this year, way negative that year.  And I haven't talked about his PK work which is generally very strong.

 

We'll see how the offense develops - recent numbers notwithstanding, I don't think he's all of the sudden going to turn into a dynamo there, but he didn't look awful when put on the power play recently, and I think with his speed he'll always be prone to short handed breakaways against if he does play there regularly.  He's still developed into a formidable player right when NJ needs it - because for as good as Larsson and Severson have looked, Merrill and Gelinas have not.  


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#1299812 GDT: New Jersey Devils @ Boston Bruins 1/8/15

Posted by Triumph on 09 January 2015 - 12:13 AM

Greene-Larsson did fine.  Amazingly they both ended the game plus Corsi and I think maybe even plus in shots.  Which gets to just how bad the Fraser-Zidlicky and Helgeson-Merrill combos were.  I mean, with the team playing like this, there was no way they were winning tonight without some great bounces, but if Josefson, Bernier, and Harrold were all healthy scratches tonight, the Devils coaching staff got what they deserved by going with Tootoo, Sestito, and Fraser over those 3 for 'toughness'.  The Devils sure were tough getting blown out of the building, having one functioning D pair and basically a bottom 2 lines that were cooked from the outset.


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#1298872 NJ's Drafts: Before And After, 2000-10

Posted by Triumph on 02 January 2015 - 05:35 PM

It's a very minor point about DuClair v. Kujawinski and I said that it wasn't something that upset me that much. DuClair also put up a ton of points he year before.

Being a pompous ass though seems to be your reason to exist on this planet, so you can have fun with the spreadsheets.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

There aren't choices between two prospects.  Hmmm, do we draft guy A, or guy B, where guy B happens to be amazing a year later.  It's totally reductive to look at things this way.

 

Lotta spreadsheet analysis in this one.  I bet all those numbers just put everyone right to sleep.


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#1298304 Lou isn't going anywhere

Posted by Triumph on 29 December 2014 - 03:58 PM

When is the last time he's shown that? He's been stuck in the same mode for a decade if not longer. Old stubborn dogs don't learn new tricks, he would first have to admit he's made huge mistakes (saw this somewhere else, since 2000 they have drafted 6 guys that have played 200 NHL games), I forget who they were off the top but more than a couple were barely serviceable guys at best. To admit you make mistakes you would have to look in the rear view mirror which Lou has repeatedly said he doesn't do. That wold make him incapable of even assessing his own performance. His way or the highway, love it or piss off.

 

gdhi I believe it was your quote about the draft choices and having played 200 NHL games, did I recall it correctly or am I off base.

 

That stat is dumb because there's nothing that can be done to go back to 2000 and fix that.  Furthermore, the Devils have 4 guys who are locks to fulfill that barring injury currently on their roster. (Merrill, Gelinas, Severson, Larsson).  So it's a really ineffective look at performance.  That's not to say the Devils' draft performance is good - it hasn't been that good.  But it hasn't been as bad as it's made out to be here, and how they did in 2000 really doesn't reflect that much on the present roster - it's just not likely to pull miracles out every year when you are picking late in the 1st round or not at all in the 1st round.  Detroit's done it.  Arguably Philadelphia has done it.  Everyone else who was good in 2000 went through a period of being not good since then.

 

This year's deadline and draft will say a lot about the direction of the franchise.  To me Lou hasn't made that one move that is deserving of a firing.


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#1297171 2014-2015 New Jersey Devils chokestravaganza!

Posted by Triumph on 23 December 2014 - 11:27 PM

Anyone characterizing this game as a 'choke' really hasn't seen a bad hockey team.


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#1295531 'He Makes Other Players Better'

Posted by Triumph on 16 December 2014 - 12:11 PM

I loathe cliches - I mean, sure, I use them plenty, but I also don't like using them without thinking.  Hockey broadcasters and hockey lifers often have nothing but cliches to offer, so I get exposed to them plenty.  One of the classic hockey cliches to say about a player is that 'he makes other players better'.  It's said about your dominant center types typically - guys who control the flow of the game when they're on the ice.  Even though Patrik Elias spent most of his years as a LW, this was true of him as well.  Lots of Devil forwards had their best career seasons playing alongside Patrik Elias.  Elias is 9th in assists between the years 1999-2000 and 2013-14, and this despite seldom playing with a player better than him.   Playing with him in his final season gave Petr Sykora a 20 goal season and has made Dainius Zubrus's numbers not look awful.

 

We've seen the deterioration in Patrik's game this year and now he's out with an injury and he's 38 years old.  Watching this team play without him - both while he was playing, he was not 'Patrik Elias', and now with him in the press box - it's a reminder of just how great a player he was.  The Devils never lacked for a first-line forward with Elias on the team between the years I mentioned above.  Stick a guy with Elias and he was going to look better, usually.  Now the only guy they have that fits the cliche on their team is Jaromir Jagr who is 43 years old.

 

These players are vital not just because they are really good, but because your team needs them for your other players to be put into a position to succeed.  Without them a team is just fighting uphill all the time.  Michael Ryder doesn't suck just because he is terrible, but also because he doesn't have anyone out there helping cover up his deficiencies and accentuating his strengths.  Reid Boucher will have the same struggles if he comes back up.  Adam Henrique and Travis Zajac can't do this alone.  Free agency offers no solutions.  Trading likely offers no solutions.  The only answer is in the draft.  We'll see what they can find.


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#1293230 Brunner clears waivers- PDB says their relationship is over

Posted by Triumph on 05 December 2014 - 12:27 PM

Jagr's going to be back next game.  I think the Devils are trying to make room for Mike Sislo - he did get 15 minutes last night, after all - and seeing if anyone takes a flyer on Brunner is the first step to that.

 

I don't think at his salary that he will be claimed.


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#1292645 GDT: Devs @ Pens

Posted by Triumph on 02 December 2014 - 10:13 PM

we had chances to draft talent, but Lou decided to draft Mike Hoeffel over Wayne Simmonds, Kiril Tulupov over Brad Marchand, Mattias Tedenby over Tyler Ennis and John Carlson, Brandon Burlon over Travis Hamonic (the very next pick!) Jacob Josefson over Marcus Johansson, and Stephane Matteau's stupid kid over Tanner Pearson (the very next pick)

 

Can you imagine how the board would've flipped out if Lou had taken a 20 year old with a 1st round pick - it would've been priceless.


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#1292154 Gomez Has Arrived

Posted by Triumph on 01 December 2014 - 12:17 PM

It can't be worse than what's been going on.  I mean, it probably can, but at least Gomez can carry the puck through the neutral zone probably.  Here's hoping he has a Val Kamensky style career rebirth for a few games.


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#1292153 A Plan To Try To Right The Ship (For Next Year)

Posted by Triumph on 01 December 2014 - 12:13 PM

I'm not sure there is any salvaging the Devils' season this year.  There's too many holes on the team, and spending a bunch of draft picks to patch them isn't the right idea.  I thought losing Salvador and Clowe to injury would help the team, but Havlat and Ryder have emerged as players who simply cannot be playing on a good hockey team, and Zajac's offense has fallen off even more than last year.  I don't think Lou should be considering any trade that isn't made with an eye towards next year.  The Devils could start winning - some timely goal scoring and Schneider playing .930 hockey could certainly get the Devils ahead, probably, but not far enough.  So here's what I would do to try to get the team going again:

 

1.  Trade Eric Gelinas ASAP.  He's being healthy scratched despite there being 2 injuries on defense.  He's a specialty item on a team that can no longer afford that luxury.  If you had the kind of forward group that can carry along an Eric Gelinas at even strength, then great, but the Devils won't, and they won't for some time.  I'm afraid of what the Devils might lose if Gelinas somehow gets good, but if they wait another year, there may be no market at all for Gelinas.  Get what you can for him, kid's got a hell of a shot and if he figures out the defensive zone even a little bit he'll be a player worth having.  I'd be willing to get a 2nd round pick for him if that pick were to be shopped for upgrades at forward.

 

2.  Try to set up an Andrei Loktionov sort of trade.  The Loktionov trade didn't work out, but Loktionov was 90% of the way to being a pretty good player.  Bad defense and some bad shooting luck by his line were his undoing last year.  The Devils need a center badly - Patrik Elias isn't going to be the answer for very long if he is now, and Jacob Josefson is not good enough to do even what Patrik is doing now.  I'd be willing to deal the Devils' 2nd round pick this year for a young center who isn't getting an opportunity where he is now.  I'm not sure right now who that is or where that player exists, but the Devils will have plenty of picks in this year's draft if they continue down the road they're on now, so I don't mind giving one up for a shot at this kind of player.

 

3.  Buy out Dainius Zubrus at season's end.  I have always liked Zubrus's game, but the Devils did not see the warning signs in 2012-13 and wishcasted themselves into a 3 year deal with a player who has rapidly declining skills.  His contract is not that expensive but 3 years for him was quite simply a dumb move - much dumber than the 3 years on Elias's deal.  Zubrus is a defense-only player at this point - he's a smart enough player on offense that he fools you into thinking he might have something to give there, but he just doesn't.

 

4.  Keep Jaromir Jagr.  If Jagr wants out, fine, but if he doesn't, it's hard not to keep him because he is the only player above water right now.  The Devils simply aren't going to do better than him next year on the free agent market and they still need right wings, even if they trade Gelinas for one.

 

5.  Stop thinking that Adam Henrique is 'ready to break out' - He's a decent 2nd line wing or good 3rd line center, and that's what he is.  A good player to have, but not the cornerstone of a franchise.

 

So my ideal Devils team next year looks something like:

 

Cammalleri-Zajac-X

Boucher-Y-Jagr

Elias-Henrique-Z

Ruutu-Josefson-Gionta

 

Greene-Severson

Merrill-Larsson

A-B

Helgeson

 

Schneider

Kinkaid

 

Where Z is a player acquired for Gelinas, Y is a player acquired for a 2nd round pick, and X - maybe X is someone we drafted in the top 8 of next year's draft.  It does figure to be deep.  A and B I'm not so sure of.

 


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#1286005 DeBoer "Firing Watch" Thread

Posted by Triumph on 30 October 2014 - 11:54 AM

whoa whoa.. careful now!!! We're not allowed to bring up his 3 years in Florida......... or last season either!! (after all, poor Pete had so much to deal with the Brodeur\Schneider drama) Can't bring up what's happened thus-far.. this season just started after all. Can't look @ 2013 either!!!! That was a half-a-season lockout year, and should absolutely be stricken from the record.

All we will focus on his 2012. The wonderful, lovely, magnificent SCF run in 2012. Everything else with DeBoer doesn't matter as a Head Coach.. just 2012. Doesn't matter that this is his 7th year of exp. on the job.. 2012 should be the only season that gets glorified! :thumbsup:

 

Sure, go ahead, bring up his 3 years in Florida.  You can bring them up all you like.  The problem for you guys is that you can't just say 'He didn't make the playoffs in Florida, therefore he's no good' without sounding like an idiot.  Here is the team that came within one point of making the playoffs in 2008-09:

 

Stillman-Weiss-Horton

Booth-Frolik-Dvorak

Peltonen-Campbell-Zednik

McLean-Kreps-Stewart

 

Bouwmeester-Ballard

McCabe-Skrastins

Cullimore-Boynton

 

Vokoun

Anderson

 

Does this team look good to anyone?  Doesn't look good to me outside of the net.  In fact you have a ton of guys on this team who have looked worse elsewhere, although a lot of that's due to injury, but even the young players on this team have gone elsewhere and struggled.  And the teams just got worse from there.

 

On the final day of Deboer's Florida tenure, here is the lineup he put out there:

 

Booth-Weiss-Samsonov

Dadonov-Reasoner-Skille

Repik-Santorelli-Bergfors

Ti. Kennedy-Rissmiller-B. Thomas

 

Kulikov-Weaver

Ellerby-Garrison

C. Wilson-J. Callahan

 

Vokoun

 

This was in 2011.  Of this team, Garrison, Kulikov, Weaver, and Santorelli are the only NHL regulars left.  And that was 3 and a half years ago.


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#1284443 It is game 7 of a new season

Posted by Triumph on 24 October 2014 - 04:21 PM

You guys wrap yourselves into conniptions about who plays and who doesn't play.  It's mostly bullsh!t.  Who plays on the 4th line isn't going to make that huge a deal.  The Devils iced a way way worse 4th line 3 years ago.  Their 4th line isn't good, but it isn't that bad.  You guys bitch about this, you bitch about Larsson, and meanwhile we haven't seen a rookie season like this from a player since Scott Gomez - Damon Severson played his way on to the team and started crushing and I hear almost nothing about him.  It is positively bizarre how great this kid is playing and how much obsessing there is over other stuff.  And the thing is that in 3 weeks it's not going to matter anyway - injuries are going to make it so that who's on the roster plays and there aren't a ton of choices.


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#1281970 Would you trade Adam Larsson...

Posted by Triumph on 12 October 2014 - 10:10 PM

It's a fact, sorry to break it to you. I remember you calling players or prospects (you've never seen live) playing overseas awful cause they had a bad shooting % which was the only info you had on them.

 

You're as robotic as an human being can get, that's no news to anyone here.

 

You have as good a memory as you are a reader or a thinker.  Does this make any sense?  Could you think about this for a single second and think 'Hey, does this make sense?'  It just shows you don't even know what you don't know - you haven't paid attention to a lot of what I've written.

 

ATL:  he wasn't calling me a pessimist, he's saying I judge players without context.  The enormous irony of course is that A: I do consider context and that B: it's a lot easier to be skeptical of my method than it is to come up with a counter method.  First it's 'Corsi doesn't matter' now it's 'you have no context'.


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