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Triumph

Member Since 08 Sep 2002
Offline Last Active Today, 01:02 AM
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#1308772 2015 Draft Thread

Posted by Triumph on Yesterday, 11:19 AM

Anyone who pays attention to junior hockey know anything about Dennis Yan?  I was just googling some mock drafts and see that one -- for what it's worth -- has him being one of our second round picks.  His numbers look pretty good -- ppg+ as a youngish 17 year old -- and this summary suggests that he's pretty skilled.

 

http://www.draftsite...nnis-yan/21096/

 

It also looks like he had a very productive Hlinka tournament.  Of course, the summary says his defensive skills need work, so I guess that means he's not even on Conte's draft board, but we'll see.

 

The idea that the Devils don't draft defensively limited players is borne out by absolutely no evidence.


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#1308225 Devils Trade Deadline Thread

Posted by Triumph on 02 March 2015 - 03:50 PM

Disappointing that they couldn't get something for Havlat or Ryder but not very surprising either - Ryder will probably be a camp tryout for someone next year and Havlat's through.


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#1307163 Clarkson to Jackets for Nathan Horton

Posted by Triumph on 26 February 2015 - 06:41 PM

Wow.
What does Horton's contact being uninsured mean?

 

It means that they owe every cent on it.  If it was insured, then they would only pay the insurance and the insurance company would pay the rest.  Horton isn't going to play again, so Columbus would have to pay his entire salary for him to do nothing.  Clarkson is a body - he's a terrible body in Toronto, but at least he will play and can possibly make positive contributions on the ice.  Maybe he won't, but it beats paying Horton to do nothing.


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#1306989 Devils Trade Deadline Thread

Posted by Triumph on 26 February 2015 - 01:20 PM

I'd like to see what the possible markets for NJ's guys are, but without capgeek it's just impossible to tell what kind of room everyone has.  That site was so invaluable.


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#1306732 Devils Trade Deadline Thread

Posted by Triumph on 25 February 2015 - 02:07 PM

So im curious and it's a serious question

 

Why is it a fireable offense suddenly to some of you to not trade a 43 year old and missing the playoffs when we are 6-8 pts away from a playoffs spot

 

But it was completely fine and understandable not trading a 27 years old Clarkson in his prime who just scored 30 and who was on pace for another 30 through a full season, basically at the peak of his top value in his career when we were pretty much 6-8 points away at that time too... and a guy who wanted way too much money... and then miss the playoffs.... 

 

Because, dipsh!t, the Devils were in 7th place in the conference on the trade deadline.  They weren't 8 points out.  Question answered - last time I talk to you on this board.  Someone please hold me to this.


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#1305515 Devils Trade Deadline Thread

Posted by Triumph on 17 February 2015 - 11:23 PM

Haha dude you're wearing blinders so fvcking thick. 

 

You think only in NJ this is happening? It's a business and the playoffs knows that. If Lou tries to sign a guy long term and it's not going anywhere, he had to trade him. But of course it never got to that point cause he never even start contract talks with him. Even Elias himself said it was frustrating that Lou was doing things that way. So there you go, Elias who's a no BS guy said he's not supporting that sh!t from Lou.

 

Even if he was just a 4th (which you don't know that) that's a 4th and i'd take it, we have NOTHING. Was it worth to keep him? a guy who's been jerked around and benched all season for Salvador and A-Train? Why keep a guy like that around? We have NOTHING to trade and we need picks, and here Triumph everytime a guys goes for nothing "Who cares? He was not gonna bring back much" EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Well ALL those times together that's quite a lot of assets that we're not getting and we really have to bet on anything we can get.

 

You do realize you said it was "no big deal" when Zach left. When Kovy left. When Clarkson left. When every single guy who left. Always the same robotic answer from you. Well guess what. When all those guys were here we made it to the finals and once they all left we never made the playoffs. But yeah, you don't seem to understand the accumulation here. 

 

Last post on this:

 

Where would the Devils be right now if they had traded Parise in 2011, Kovalchuk ever, and Clarkson in 2012?  They'd probably be here.  Where they are right now.  They'd have some more guys who might be NHL ready, maybe, coming up, so they'd be in a better position for the future, one would hope.  They wouldn't have that run in 2012 without Parise, that's almost a certainty, as he was an extremely valuable player both during the season and in the playoffs as well.  But they'd be better off in 2015-16 than they will be in our current reality, that I will grant.  Or again, I'd hope they would be.

 

Now let's ask the other question - where would the Devils be if they still had all 3 of these guys - forget that, let's even leave out Clarkson, as he immediately turned to garbage - where are the Devils with Parise and Kovalchuk?  They don't have Schneider, probably.  They probably don't have Brodeur either.  Quite probable they don't have Jagr.  It doesn't really matter who they have and don't have - I don't think that team is particularly good either.  Maybe they're a playoff fringe team?  Maybe they're a few points out of the playoffs?  Either way, that team isn't that hot either - it probably doesn't have elite goaltending, it's got the same problems at center that this team does, and it has the other issue, that besides Henrique and Josefson, every other forward on the team is getting worse, and that includes Parise and Kovalchuk.  That team's also going nowhere fast, even with Severson coming up, it's not going to offset everything else going on up front.

 

So no, I don't think that Lou made mistakes going for it.  I don't think you either have to be a Cup contender or selling pieces off if they don't want to sign a contract in February.  Sometimes you just have to go for it.  If the Devils make it into the playoffs last season (not an impossibility at all) and Schneider plays as he has been for the last month in last year's playoffs, that team can win a round or two or three, they weren't horrible, and they wouldn't have to deal with the goddamned shootout in the playoffs.

 

I did understate how much losing Parise would hurt the franchise and it did hurt it greatly (though Jagr was a suitable simulacrum last year).  But again the thing that you don't seem to ever acknowledge is that free agent forwards are going to get worse.  Kovalchuk isn't the player he was when we got him in 2010.  He's not the top scorer on his KHL team.  David Clarkson is a 4th line player now.  Having or not having these guys isn't the problem with the team - it's everyone else.  Everyone else has gotten worse and no one has come up to replace them.  That's not significantly altered by these trades you always talk about, either.  


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#1304219 Let's Call a Spade a Spade

Posted by Triumph on 09 February 2015 - 11:26 PM

It's not tanking.  We would be seeing more Kinkaid and more Fraser if that were the case - Fraser basically played 2 shifts in the third.  They are just this stupid and incompetent.


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#1302129 Brodeur retires, joins STL front office

Posted by Triumph on 27 January 2015 - 04:02 PM

One of the greats, and we were all lucky to see him in New Jersey.  The 3 years Brodeur won a Stanley Cup, his stats were:  67 games, 48 wins, 19 losses, 1.64 GAA, .930 SV%.  And yet some of his great playoff performances have come recently - his 44 save shutout of the Carolina Hurricanes in 2009 and a 25 save performance in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2012 are highlights that don't come with Stanley Cups attached but that doesn't make them any less great.  And of course that that 2012 performance came 18 years after his first great playoff performance - what a career.

 

They made a rule to try to stop how good he was with the puck, but that didn't slow him down - 2 of his best years were after that rule was instituted.  He played his own style that no one else will play, and no one else will wear #30 for this franchise again.


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#1301800 Lou being sued

Posted by Triumph on 23 January 2015 - 02:36 PM

Hmm, so Lou supposedly called this guy incompetent, and this guy turned down a job elsewhere in 2012 to continue working for the Devils even though Vanderbeek was broke and almost certain to sell the team.  Sounds like he wasn't wrong.


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#1301460 The Transformation of Adam Larsson

Posted by Triumph on 20 January 2015 - 04:48 PM

I think I've been over this ground before, but I'm going to give a brief synopsis of how I perceive Adam Larsson's career as a Devil has gone - I will consult numbers for this, but they won't really augment my points that much, I don't think.

 

Year 1 (2011-12):  I can't remember who Larsson's first regular D partner was, but stats.hockeyanalysis tells me that Larsson's most common D partner was Bryce Salvador, and that sounds right.  The lineup was something like Tallinder-Fayne, Greene-Volchenkov, Salvador-Larsson.  Larsson struggled mightily on the power play in Year 1 even though he was the main QB - his shot differential was only 31 shots/60 minutes, which is pretty darn low, and the Devils gave up a lot of shorthanded goals.  His issue was chiefly slow decision-making - he wasn't sure what to do with the puck when he got it, and often thought he had more time than he did.  In addition, Larsson liked to hold on to the puck for as long as possible to see if a pass would develop. Compounding this was his slow acceleration - he'd never catch up if he lost the puck.  in short, he wasn't ready for that role and finally when Kurtis Foster arrived he was taken off the power play.  Still, despite skating issues, he was an effective defenseman and produced impressive breakout passes.  He was gaining confidence and playing reasonably well until he was hurt in February - he comes back and is given less ice time and doesn't appear to be making great decisions.  He's a healthy scratch through the first round of the playoffs, but gets in there against Philadelphia and looks quite good.  Then he's taken out against the Rangers and never gets back in.  Still, a good first year all in all - he broke even as a 19 year old NHL rookie, and that's really quite rare.

 

Year 2 (2012-13):  Larsson posts 19 points in 33 AHL games as the lockout eats up the beginning of the NHL season.  Even so, he's left out of the NHL rotation as the Devils go with 8 defensemen - he doesn't get into game action until Game 6.  Nothing really stands out to me about this year at all - he was mostly paired with Andy Greene and really did not look impressive - the breakout passes were there, but the rest of his game wasn't.  He struggled with gap control, he was slow to cover passes by the opposition, and of course he was being beaten wide far too often.  I think this year is when I noticed that Larsson takes a lot of hits in the D zone, more than his share.  

 

Year 3 (2013-14):  Larsson begins the season in the lineup.  He plays the first 2 games and is a -4.  He stays in for another game where he's even and is then a healthy scratch.  I think this is where DeBoer makes his comments about Larsson not being a -2 every game or whatever.  The issue isn't just that he's a -4, it's that he's being beaten wide in the same fashion as he had been last year.  There appeared to be no improvement in his skating.  Gelinas gets called up to the team in October and Larsson is his D partner early on and that D pairing does quite well - they get very well protected zone start wise but they're still doing quite good territorially.  Then Larsson gets hurt, goes down to the minors, and returns briefly at the end of the year.  Everything seems to be status quo.  His territorial numbers for the year look good but they're in a pretty small sample.

 

Year 4 (2014-15):  Larsson doesn't look particularly good in preseason, to my eyes.  He's scratched to begin the season and talks about how it's the most difficult thing that's happened to him in his career so far.  Trade rumors begin to form around the league about him - Garroich writes that piece about Larsson maybe being a trade piece but teams are wary because of his slow decision making.  When he finally gets into the lineup though, things appear different.  His breakout passes aren't as special, but he's no longer holding on to the puck as long - he's using the glass and the boards occasionally.  He's not taking huge hits seemingly every game.  His gap control isn't horrible, he's not getting turned around as often, and he really looks strong on the boards.  In addition, in the offensive zone he's not holding the puck looking for an open stick - the 'deflectable shot' that everyone talked about is gone.  Adam's just getting the puck and ripping it when he has a chance, generally.   It's again a small sample but the numbers are telling an interesting story for Adam this year - he's breaking even despite very difficult assignments.  He broke even in 2012-13 too, except that team was much better than this team - his Corsi Rel is positive this year, way negative that year.  And I haven't talked about his PK work which is generally very strong.

 

We'll see how the offense develops - recent numbers notwithstanding, I don't think he's all of the sudden going to turn into a dynamo there, but he didn't look awful when put on the power play recently, and I think with his speed he'll always be prone to short handed breakaways against if he does play there regularly.  He's still developed into a formidable player right when NJ needs it - because for as good as Larsson and Severson have looked, Merrill and Gelinas have not.  


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#1299812 GDT: New Jersey Devils @ Boston Bruins 1/8/15

Posted by Triumph on 09 January 2015 - 12:13 AM

Greene-Larsson did fine.  Amazingly they both ended the game plus Corsi and I think maybe even plus in shots.  Which gets to just how bad the Fraser-Zidlicky and Helgeson-Merrill combos were.  I mean, with the team playing like this, there was no way they were winning tonight without some great bounces, but if Josefson, Bernier, and Harrold were all healthy scratches tonight, the Devils coaching staff got what they deserved by going with Tootoo, Sestito, and Fraser over those 3 for 'toughness'.  The Devils sure were tough getting blown out of the building, having one functioning D pair and basically a bottom 2 lines that were cooked from the outset.


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#1298872 NJ's Drafts: Before And After, 2000-10

Posted by Triumph on 02 January 2015 - 05:35 PM

It's a very minor point about DuClair v. Kujawinski and I said that it wasn't something that upset me that much. DuClair also put up a ton of points he year before.

Being a pompous ass though seems to be your reason to exist on this planet, so you can have fun with the spreadsheets.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

There aren't choices between two prospects.  Hmmm, do we draft guy A, or guy B, where guy B happens to be amazing a year later.  It's totally reductive to look at things this way.

 

Lotta spreadsheet analysis in this one.  I bet all those numbers just put everyone right to sleep.


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#1298304 Lou isn't going anywhere

Posted by Triumph on 29 December 2014 - 03:58 PM

When is the last time he's shown that? He's been stuck in the same mode for a decade if not longer. Old stubborn dogs don't learn new tricks, he would first have to admit he's made huge mistakes (saw this somewhere else, since 2000 they have drafted 6 guys that have played 200 NHL games), I forget who they were off the top but more than a couple were barely serviceable guys at best. To admit you make mistakes you would have to look in the rear view mirror which Lou has repeatedly said he doesn't do. That wold make him incapable of even assessing his own performance. His way or the highway, love it or piss off.

 

gdhi I believe it was your quote about the draft choices and having played 200 NHL games, did I recall it correctly or am I off base.

 

That stat is dumb because there's nothing that can be done to go back to 2000 and fix that.  Furthermore, the Devils have 4 guys who are locks to fulfill that barring injury currently on their roster. (Merrill, Gelinas, Severson, Larsson).  So it's a really ineffective look at performance.  That's not to say the Devils' draft performance is good - it hasn't been that good.  But it hasn't been as bad as it's made out to be here, and how they did in 2000 really doesn't reflect that much on the present roster - it's just not likely to pull miracles out every year when you are picking late in the 1st round or not at all in the 1st round.  Detroit's done it.  Arguably Philadelphia has done it.  Everyone else who was good in 2000 went through a period of being not good since then.

 

This year's deadline and draft will say a lot about the direction of the franchise.  To me Lou hasn't made that one move that is deserving of a firing.


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#1297171 2014-2015 New Jersey Devils chokestravaganza!

Posted by Triumph on 23 December 2014 - 11:27 PM

Anyone characterizing this game as a 'choke' really hasn't seen a bad hockey team.


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#1295531 'He Makes Other Players Better'

Posted by Triumph on 16 December 2014 - 12:11 PM

I loathe cliches - I mean, sure, I use them plenty, but I also don't like using them without thinking.  Hockey broadcasters and hockey lifers often have nothing but cliches to offer, so I get exposed to them plenty.  One of the classic hockey cliches to say about a player is that 'he makes other players better'.  It's said about your dominant center types typically - guys who control the flow of the game when they're on the ice.  Even though Patrik Elias spent most of his years as a LW, this was true of him as well.  Lots of Devil forwards had their best career seasons playing alongside Patrik Elias.  Elias is 9th in assists between the years 1999-2000 and 2013-14, and this despite seldom playing with a player better than him.   Playing with him in his final season gave Petr Sykora a 20 goal season and has made Dainius Zubrus's numbers not look awful.

 

We've seen the deterioration in Patrik's game this year and now he's out with an injury and he's 38 years old.  Watching this team play without him - both while he was playing, he was not 'Patrik Elias', and now with him in the press box - it's a reminder of just how great a player he was.  The Devils never lacked for a first-line forward with Elias on the team between the years I mentioned above.  Stick a guy with Elias and he was going to look better, usually.  Now the only guy they have that fits the cliche on their team is Jaromir Jagr who is 43 years old.

 

These players are vital not just because they are really good, but because your team needs them for your other players to be put into a position to succeed.  Without them a team is just fighting uphill all the time.  Michael Ryder doesn't suck just because he is terrible, but also because he doesn't have anyone out there helping cover up his deficiencies and accentuating his strengths.  Reid Boucher will have the same struggles if he comes back up.  Adam Henrique and Travis Zajac can't do this alone.  Free agency offers no solutions.  Trading likely offers no solutions.  The only answer is in the draft.  We'll see what they can find.


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