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#1281970 Would you trade Adam Larsson...

Posted by Triumph on 12 October 2014 - 10:10 PM

It's a fact, sorry to break it to you. I remember you calling players or prospects (you've never seen live) playing overseas awful cause they had a bad shooting % which was the only info you had on them.


You're as robotic as an human being can get, that's no news to anyone here.


You have as good a memory as you are a reader or a thinker.  Does this make any sense?  Could you think about this for a single second and think 'Hey, does this make sense?'  It just shows you don't even know what you don't know - you haven't paid attention to a lot of what I've written.


ATL:  he wasn't calling me a pessimist, he's saying I judge players without context.  The enormous irony of course is that A: I do consider context and that B: it's a lot easier to be skeptical of my method than it is to come up with a counter method.  First it's 'Corsi doesn't matter' now it's 'you have no context'.

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#1281474 GDT 10/7/14: THE NJ DEVILS @ Philadelphia 7PM

Posted by Triumph on 09 October 2014 - 09:32 PM

Lot to like, lot to dislike - Salvador of course did not fail to disappoint - he's got to be better.  He actually wasn't that bad skating-wise but his reads seemed off at times.  Zidlicky didn't have a very good game either although his pass to Havlat was sick.


Cammalleri at least from Game 1 is as advertised - I thought he shot a little too much but hey 7 shots isn't bad.


Severson looked how I thought he would - he has to be impressing people.  He tried a play in the 3rd period where he tried to flip the puck to himself to get around the forecheck.  It was totally nuts but he is not afraid.


Gelinas was unremarkable and unremarkable is good.


4th line was a disappointment, they shouldn't get run that hard by the other 4th line.  


And of course Schneider was not great but he was not terrible - the Flyers did get 39 shots after all.  Goals #1 and #2 were not his best work.


Just glad to have Devils hockey back.

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#1280644 2014-2015 Around the league thread

Posted by Triumph on 06 October 2014 - 05:28 PM

Stop me if you've heard this one before - black kid in hockey thought to have a bad attitude

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#1279731 I hope the Devils never do what the Red Sox did

Posted by Triumph on 29 September 2014 - 02:15 PM

Easy to see both sides of the 'retirement tour' - fans would've felt upset if Jeter said yesterday 'Oh by the way, I'm retiring', and he would've had to deal with the questions all year long and would have to find a new way to stonewall every week and the endless speculation.  So he ended all of that and just said he was done after this year.  Anyone that wanted to see Jeter's last moments in the league did - no one feels cheated in that respect.  People might be bored or annoyed at the constant Jeter veneration, but to me he did right by his fans and it doesn't matter what anyone else thinks.

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#1278896 Preseason GDT: Devils @ The Rangers

Posted by Triumph on 22 September 2014 - 10:35 PM

Yeah, I guess I'll do a rundown on everyone - why not


Elias - who cares, it's preseason


Zubrus - same thing, although I can't say I loved his game


Havlat - he's got the shiftiness.  He stood out on a number of plays - the Devils are going to have to give him a finisher.


Boucher - great game, probably make him the player of the game.  Made the right reads on the puck and made some excellent plays with it.


Henrique - also had a very solid game - what a ripper to end it


Ryder - still skates the same as ever but somehow managed two goals tonight.  Just don't ever give him the puck in the neutral zone


Matteau - liked his game - played tough


Josefson - Blah.  Not much here tonight from Jacob.  Still only preseason but I was unimpressed.


Tootoo - still has the wheels, still takes bad penalties.


Fedotenko - didn't look terrible, but didn't look all that good either.


Sestito-Janssen - I don't need to say anything about these two


On to the defense:


Gelinas-Larsson - Gelinas made some good defensive reads.  He had a particularly nice sequence 1 on 1 with Martin St. Louis.  As for Larsson, he's still got all the problems he's had the last 3 years - he has trouble turning and accelerating.  Still made some good reads in the D zone.


Kaberle-Severson - I actually liked what Kaberle was doing out there, he has a good idea of how to break the puck out.  I'm curious how he would play in the corners of a non-preseason game.  And of course he never shoots, but we knew that already.  Severson also looked pretty good - he had a few poor breakout passes but he's got the right idea of what to do.  He's not trying to go off the glass with stuff, and that's a good sign.


Kelly-Komisarek - It's hard to judge Dan Kelly because he played beside Mike Komisarek who was basically a wreck all night.  Komisarek got 13 minutes in a preseason game which isn't exactly a show of confidence - I'll be very surprised if he ends up on this team. 

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#1274297 NJ/Albany Minor Transactions Thread (was Thomson/Johnson thread)

Posted by Triumph on 27 July 2014 - 09:59 AM

From 01-07, our scouting as absolutely abysmal.  Aside from Henrique, Parise, Zajac and Fayne, there was absolutely no talent in that 7 year period.  I think it is fair to say that the last five years, they've been much better drafting


Edit: if it wasn't for picking up key UDFA like Greene and Clarkson, it would've looked a lot worse


Where I give credit to scouting staffs is when players look like NHLers all the way up until they actually don't, especially with later-round picks.  So yeah, Hoeffel is a miss - year 2 of his NCAA career and he didn't look like he'd be anything worthwhile.  Still, people like Palmieri and Halischuk have or had NHL careers - they're not bad picks.  Obviously that doesn't win you NHL hockey games to say 'Oh, well Nick Palmieri was a half-decent player until his career fell apart and this year he was 5th in scoring on his German league team', but they identified players with NHL-level talent, which isn't easy to do.


Maybe what we can take from this is that our scouts are much better with North American prospects than they are with Europeans. It's to the point where I'd rather they just draft North Americans. It can't all just be bad luck with the Europeans we've drafted recently.


The Devils really haven't drafted that many European players overall.  Sticking to North America is a good way to fall behind other organizations who aren't categorically rejecting 25% of the player pool for no good reason.  And again, under the system I outlined above, someone like Urbom is a success.  He skates like an NHLer, he's got an NHLer's body, he just can't play NHL-level defense.  They identified a good player and a lot of stuff happened since he was drafted and he didn't make it all the way there.  I'd say the same thing about Josefson - who knows what he is without all the injury setbacks?  But if you can draft 5 Urboms in the 3rd and 4th round over the course of 5 years and one guy turns out to be Henrik Tallinder and the other 4 wash out in different ways, I think as an organization you'd take that.

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#1273694 Kovalchuk Retired Effective Immediately?

Posted by Triumph on 15 July 2014 - 10:12 AM

Beat that horse guys! Beat it til its dead again!


You don't have to click on the thread. Failing that, you certainly don't have to post.

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#1272835 Cammalleri - 5 years at $5M

Posted by Triumph on 06 July 2014 - 06:22 PM

I agree with this then. I apologize, I did not register your sarcasm. JMI I don't think was sarcastic though.


MacIsaac made a one line post whose meaning I'm sure is the same as sundstrom's and mine and whose meaning you have finally sussed out in your reply to me -  "You could say "we got 20 goals better because Cory will start full time this year" - that is fair."  That's all Jason was trying to say.  


I also made no contradiction.  When I talk about a #1 goalie, I'm not talking about one guy getting 45 games and the other one gets 37.  I am talking about that Schneider starts, without question, all non back to back games (or some back to backs and rests against some weaker opponents).  A guy who gets those games almost regardless of how poorly he is doing.  With Brodeur on the team, Schneider would never be in that position.

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#1272582 Cammalleri - 5 years at $5M

Posted by Triumph on 03 July 2014 - 12:03 AM

Cammalleri got 9.2 S/60 last year, second best among the top 5 UFA forwards (Vanek with 9.9). He had the best Corsi Rel (+6.7) and a pretty unlucky PDO (but mostly because lol goalies in CGY). Considering what the other guys on that list got...NJ didn't do badly at all and the only objection is term but hey July 1.



Keep this in mind: Zubrus spent a lot of time on the top line and only averaged 5 S/60. Cammalleri is a huge upgrade in that regard, someone who actually can shoot the damn thing and do it well. I don't have split stats for Ruutu but he averaged 5.7 last year.  


Also curiously...when Cammalleri and Giordano were on the ice together, they had a 61% CF (and 77% GF in 300 mins). Cammalleri was 50% without Giordano but Giordano on 46% without Cammalleri (600 mins). Obviously this is b/c CGY's second line stunk in possession, but my point is that if you stick Cammalleri with Jagr and Zajac, find a workable d-partner for Greene (Merrill would be best I think), you'll see more goals. Hopefully, a lot. 


This is a bit misleading, because these Extra Skater stats are in all situations.  5 on 5 Cammalleri was actually 8th among UFAs in shots/60 - Thomas Vanek and Brad Richards are the only notable names who beat him out, the rest are guys who Clarkson the puck to the net at every opportunity they get - but Cammalleri is also an excellent shooter, so he ranked 9th overall in the league in goals/60 at ES..  When you move to the power play, Cammalleri ranked first in shots/60 among free agent forwards.  Overall Cammalleri ranks 15th in the league in G/60 at ES over the last 3 years (minimum 1500 minutes).  I'm more psyched about this signing the more I look into it.

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#1269931 Trade: Hartnell to CBJ for Umberger and a 4th

Posted by Triumph on 23 June 2014 - 07:01 PM

Flyers: Weber :: Devils: Kovalchuk - both fanbases need to give up on that player ever being there.

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#1269715 Redrafting the 1994 and 2004 classes.

Posted by Triumph on 22 June 2014 - 08:37 PM

Tough to say. Right now, I think I'd take Malkin. Its easy for me to say that because he has a Cup and a Conn Smythe on his resume, while Ovechkin has ugotz in terms of playoff success- personal or team- on his and is one of the worst defensive players in the league. But their careers aren't over either and Ovechkin should reach 1,000 points within the next 3-4 years or so. Its an interesting debate.


Alex Ovechkin's playoff career numbers:  58 games, 31 goals, 30 assists, 61 points, +9, 275 shots.  This is personal success.  He's 3rd in goals per game among players with a minimum of 20 playoff games (since 1996).  If his team hadn't let him down, he'd have been to a Stanley Cup Final at least by now.  


I mean, I think the choice is close, but people give Ovechkin grief for his playoff performances, when to me that just makes no sense at all.

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#1268810 The Official Rangers Suck Thread

Posted by Triumph on 15 June 2014 - 10:30 AM

The Rangers still suck.  Enjoy Dan Girardi for 6 more years.  Also, I'm never going to hear a Rangers fan talk about a quiet crowd in NJ ever again.

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#1268588 The official exhale thread

Posted by Triumph on 14 June 2014 - 12:46 AM

The Rangers weren't a 100 point team because they had a low shooting percentage - they shot under 8% as a team, which is hard to do.  (For the record, the NJ teams the last two years that fans were crying about having no finish both had better shooting percentages than this year's Rangers team).  


The Rangers don't have a lot of dynamite prospects ready for the NHL now, but they did sign two big-time UDFAs who might be contributors.  People always overlook those types of players when they evaluate prospects.  They also look to have had a ridiculous 2013 draft for a team that didn't have any 1st round picks.  


If I were in Sather's shoes, I'd do what I could to get Joe Thornton and maybe try to sign Dan Boyle and really go for it next year.  The East is not strong.  The Rangers' window isn't huge, it's as long as Lundqvist is an elite goalie.

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#1268555 The official exhale thread

Posted by Triumph on 14 June 2014 - 12:01 AM

The Rangers have an elite goalie and a lot of young players.  I wouldn't count them out of anything just yet, right now they're still the 2nd best team in the East behind the Bruins.  They were clearly not in the class of the Kings, but who is?

That said I'm obviously delighted with the result, and it's unlikely they get back there again, but there's a lot of good pieces over there, unfortunately.

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#1268185 Adam Larsson interview w/ hometown newspaper

Posted by Triumph on 12 June 2014 - 12:34 PM

I hear what you are saying, my point about the money isn't so much about what he made/could make but that he may just be irked a bit with the way things have gone. Of course he can earn a lot, lot more over here. Ignore the bonus, just this last year he lost a good bit of money having to play in the AHL when he shouldn't have been there. Even though he is already rich, I'm sure it's not a pleasant feeling.


But from another angle - he is a kid living halfway around the world and stuck with a coach that clearly doesn't think highly of him. I can see how that can be mentally draining. In general, sometimes I feel as fans, we don't realize how hard it can be for some of the European guys to come over and play here. Yeah they make a lot of money, but there is a mental aspect to it that can be hard for some guys, especially when things aren't going well.


But like I said before, I seriously doubt he goes back to Sweden.


I mean, I'm sure, but that's just stuff you have to fight through to become an NHL player.  I don't see where the coach doesn't think highly of him - I see a lot of quotes from DeBoer praising Larsson.  When Larsson was a healthy scratch early in the season, he deserved it.  He was not playing well at all.  And DeBoer said - Larsson looked great at training camp and is not playing well enough to stay in the lineup, and he was absolutely right.  It's the coach's job to make sure the best 18 skaters are dressed every night.  Then Gelinas and Merrill come up and play just as well as Larsson if not better and he has to earn his stripes in the AHL. 


Larsson wants to be on the NHL team next year and he will be, but all his playing time will be earned.  Leave aside the Salvadors of the world, that's not who he's competing against for ice time.  He's got to show he's as good as a guy like Mark Fayne and other than brief stretches in his NHL career he has not done that.

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