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Triumph

Member Since 08 Sep 2002
Online Last Active Today, 01:22 AM
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#1247291 Local TV ratings - Devils dead last

Posted by Triumph on 24 February 2014 - 08:04 PM

Devils ratings seem to fluctuate wildly, making me believe the ratings system doesn't work well to measure this instance.

 

Yeah, this is the first thing I thought when I saw these numbers.  If many teams in the NHL are gaining 50%+ and losing 50%+ year to year, I don't think these numbers are particularly meaningful.

 

I mean the implication is that there are fewer people watching on TV than at the games.  That's insane to me.


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#1247220 RUMOR: Callahan to be traded as per Boomer Esiason

Posted by Triumph on 24 February 2014 - 02:00 PM

The problem with always saying X player isn't worth the money imo is that, who are we waiting to sign? You don't get bonus points for having cap space available. I can see the duration being a problem down the line maybe, but you can always buy out the contracts. It seems to work for other teams.

 

Callahan's contract will not provide value in Year 1.  It will not provide value in Year 6.  Ryan Callahan belongs to the class of player who is always overpaid upon reaching UFA because he never takes a shift off.  His best years are probably behind him already, and he's likely to become more injury-prone as he ages.

 

The Devils can't afford a contract like this because they have too many other problems on the team and hustle isn't one of them.  Callahan's contract will be Clarksonesque - if he makes it to July 1, his contract will immediately be one of the 5 worst in hockey.


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#1246975 2013-14 Prospect Thread

Posted by Triumph on 22 February 2014 - 10:44 PM

Wow weird. I can see how Matteau's rating may drop because of his performance in last years' Q semi... But Urbom? Don't get it.

 

Urbom was rated highly in 2010, and prospects only ever get better, so he stays high on the list even though he just went through waivers without anyone claiming him besides NJ.

 

They don't have a clue at HF.


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#1244679 Discuss - Most Likely Trade Deadline Targets

Posted by Triumph on 08 February 2014 - 01:22 AM

Name another team besides the Devils and not named the Edmonton Oilers and Philadelphia Flyers who needed a goaltender as badly. While we can assume some teams kicked the tires who didn't necessarily *need* a goalie as badly, where was he realistically going? Most around the league thought it was Luongo going bye bye, including himself. 

 

The Flyers for whatever reason didn't pull the trigger. The Canucks weren't trading CS to the Oilers. Vancouver most likely preferred CS in the East, too. So it isn't a stretch to say that CS fell into Lou's lap. Knowing this, Lou stepped up, used an asset and made the deal, but let's not make it seem like he outbid and outfoxed half the league here like the Lou of old would. 

 

The Islanders.  The Panthers.  Toronto traded for a guy who they thought could be a starting goalie, so maybe throw them into the mix.

 

The idea that this deal 'fell into Lou's lap' is ridiculous - you know how I know it's ridiculous?  I don't remember reading ANYONE thinking this was a possibility.  It's an enormous trade - both what it suggested about Lou's faith in the team in the future (high) and what he felt about Brodeur (not high).


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#1243936 GDT - February 3, 2014: 7:30pm Colorado Avalanche vs New Jersey Devils

Posted by Triumph on 04 February 2014 - 12:51 AM

 

 

 

Good I'm glad he exposed our coach's obsession with Sal/Harrold/Gionta/Bernier.

 

 

lol he is talking about his own team, not NJ, and salvador wasn't even on the ice.  good lord


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#1241985 Brodeur embarrassed himself and the franchise today

Posted by Triumph on 27 January 2014 - 01:15 PM

This isn't about yesterday Colin. We don't need to breakdown goal by goal to see which ones were his fault or not. The key thing as an NHL goalie when you get left out to dry or face weird bounces is dealing with it and making some saves. It isn't always going to be easy out there, but you have to find a way. In the game prior, Schneider faced 3 breakaways or so and stopped them all. 

 

And as Sarge said, he never looked comfortable the entire game. He never looks comfortable. He is flopping and guessing nightly. In two games I felt the opposite feelings with both goalies. Against Washington, I felt Schneider was invincible and was not going to let in a single goal. Yesterday, I felt Brodeur was not going to make a save.

 

Yeah, I'm done with breaking down which goals are soft or weak.  It happens every game Brodeur starts and lets in a weak goal (so at least half the games) and you have Brodeur defenders either pointing out a huge save he made or saying it hit a stick or it did this - it doesn't matter.  He doesn't stop enough pucks.  Period.


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#1240663 Negative or Positive Contract Value - You Decide

Posted by Triumph on 22 January 2014 - 08:44 PM

Negative value contracts are Brodeur, Volchenkov, Salvador, and Clowe.

Neutral are Henrique, Schneider, Brunner, and Zidlicky, Zubrus, Zajac

 

Positive are Ryder, Jagr, Greene

 

The Elias deal has the potential to be a negative value contract the next few years if you look at it solely without the context of what Elias did in prior years and the fact he's a lifelong/legendary Devil.  Zajac's deal, due to subpar offensive consistency/production at times, teeters on a negative/neutral tilt.  However, it will have a few years where it's teetering on a positive/neutral tilt.  I love having Zajac's defensive acumen, minutes, faceoff ability, so to me I'd lean more positive, but he's right now being paid quite well for not enough production offensively, but that will even itself out in a few years in a long-term contract.

 

Neutral is Schneider?  Guy signed for 4.25M, has an additional year on the contract, is an elite goalie and that's neutral?  Steve Mason just signed Cory Schneider's contract.  Lundqvist makes twice as much starting next year.


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#1237498 GDT: Stars @ Devils - 7:00PM

Posted by Triumph on 10 January 2014 - 11:18 AM

with Elias and Brunner out it might be hard to limit their minutes. the sislo- lokti-Boucher line should see more ice time I think it's going to depend on the situation- defending a lead Pete will trust the gionta line like he did last night.

 

There is no way that an NHL quality lineup should be constructed such that Stephen Gionta deserves 17 minutes of ice time.


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#1236530 Urbom claimed off waivers by Washington then by Devils from WSH

Posted by Triumph on 07 January 2014 - 06:36 PM

Eh, the people who criticize this are in The Cult of the New.  

 

The Cult Of The New have a few basic precepts:

 

A:  Young players are always better than old players

B:  Everyone's a prospect until they aren't

C:  Everyone who was once a top pick continues to be an intriguing NHL player until he turns about 32.  (exceptions:  players who actually get NHL ice time)

 

Urbom was a nice prospect but it didn't come together for him and it's not coming together for him in Washington, either.  He'll probably bounce around the league for a while and maybe things come together for him and he becomes a 20 minute a game defender, but it doesn't look likely at this juncture.


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#1231596 GDT. Rangers vs Devils

Posted by Triumph on 09 December 2013 - 10:06 AM

I'm not talking about him creating offense as much as I'm talking about him disrupting the other team's offense.   For example the Kings game, I think if Marty plays, they probably don't win.   But if he does play, I don't think they look nearly as bad as they looked.   For a team that passes as poorly as we do, getting hemmed up is a death sentence

 

For teams able to carry the puck into the zone, Brodeur does exactly nothing to help in the defensive zone.


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#1230584 Lundqvist, Rangers agree on extension

Posted by Triumph on 05 December 2013 - 10:51 AM

I was never saying the goaltending was great, only, all things considered it wasn't a calamity, like you've been asserting. You threw out a bunch of ok goalies that would have been an upgrade, but would not advance the ball very far, and that assumes you can recreate the world on a spreadsheet. That is not a sign that Lou badly mishandled the goaltending, which is your assertion that started this.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I mean - you're just deluded.  The Devils have a team SV% of .906, .911, and .894 over the last 3 years.  Since the .894 was in a half year, that probably comes to an average of around .906.  That's close to the worst mark in the NHL over that time.  Just about anything would've advanced the ball.  

 

Of goalies who played 20 games - and I'm being generous to you here because of survivorship bias - Brodeur ranks 54th and Hedberg 50th in SV% out of 74 goalies over the last 3 years.   There are 2 goalies who played 100 games over the last 3 years and had a worse SV% than Brodeur.  Now scorer bias blah blah, indeed, but it's still bad.


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#1230004 GDT Devils @ Canadiens 7:30

Posted by Triumph on 02 December 2013 - 11:40 PM

lot of people Suddenly Jibing Pete in here I see.  Sestito and Janssen sucks, but it is really nothing compared to the horrible power play, where the puck movement and the players are far too slow.  I don't see what fixes that.  I think they had 1 shot on 3 power plays which is unacceptable.

 

Bottom lines get fixed somewhat when they realize Janssen isn't needed anymore, although realizing that about Gionta will take much longer, I fear (and indeed may take just Lou not re-signing him after this year).  Still, your 4th line is largely unimportant - at least this year the Devils have 9 forwards they like playing, not 7 like at some portions of 2011-12.

 

As for 2 goals, the Devils have to be getting points when they score 2 goals a large portion of the time.  Like 70% of the time when they score 2 goals in regulation they should be getting at least 1 point.  They're not a historically great defense but they are close.  But Brodeur has lost his last 4 starts and Schneider has won his last 3 - I believe the idea that Brodeur just wins and that Schneider doesn't has been retired.


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#1227458 The Schneider and Marty disparity.

Posted by Triumph on 22 November 2013 - 01:23 PM

It's luck, nothing more.  Goalies don't sustain this throughout their careers.


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#1225940 GDT: Kings @ Devils 7pm

Posted by Triumph on 16 November 2013 - 09:33 AM

I'm not dismissing the advanced stats, I'm sure they give a very good indication, in general. However, I don't understand how anyone can suggest that the skill of the shooter doesn't matter. To me that's just absurd, no matter how many stats and charts you have to back it up.

 

I HAVE NEVER fvckING SUGGESTED THIS STOP STOP STOP STOP SAYING IT YOU'RE TOO SMART TO KEEP REPEATING THIS


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#1225538 Kovalpuke

Posted by Triumph on 14 November 2013 - 02:40 PM

Thats true but you have to look at it as a whole and the structure of your team. I'm gonna talk general here, i feel some teams can live through an overpaid player in his big salary years or even if you want to see it has his cap hit value IF you have some good "deals" on the team that is "money wize" compensating. Like Sykora at 650k scoring 21 goals or a young superstar producing but still getting entry level contract money or guys popping out of the blues producing or playing big minutes. 

 

The Pens for example are able to survive with or without Malkin and Crosby (and their contracts) cause they have a bunch of "deals" on the team at this moment.

 

Of course it's not ideal and you don't want bad contracts but again it's not as deadly as some are making it to be sometimes. There's ways around it.

 

The Penguins would be a good team without Malkin, but they'd be in trouble without Crosby - Crosby is far and away the best player in the league.  Regardless, those contracts are much much much better than Ilya Kovalchuk's contract, because Ilya Kovalchuk was not as good or close to as good as those players.  The issue is with Kovalchuk's 'stardom' - somehow he is this giant star who is unable to produce even close to the numbers of star players 2 of the 3 years he was here.

 

The Devils' top scorer makes $2M on the cap this year and his bonuses may run the Devils over the cap.  Their top scoring defenseman is being paid $3M, and is in the same spot.  They've got Gelinas who is producing a ridiculous shot rate early on, he's providing a ton of value.  Larsson is too.  Reid Boucher is in the minors putting up great shot stats, he should be in the NHL next year, along with Gelinas on a cheap contract, perhaps Merrill as well.  The Devils have some entry-level bargains coming.  It's much much easier to build a team when your superstar player that you picked 1st overall has a dumb fixation with his birthdate that translates to a favorable cap hit.


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