Triumph

Last year I made a 'finish 6th in the Conference' thread and that went swimmingly, so I figured I'd make a thread about where NJ finishes in the draft.

Right now NJ is ranked 10th from the bottom in total points, but the great news is, NJ is going to lose most tiebreakers.  There are really only 5 teams the Devils could legitimately fall under now.

Note that I am seldom in favor of tanking and am not in favor of tanking in this instance either - I will not be rooting for the Devils to lose the upcoming matches.  But they very well might.

New Jersey has 7 games remaining and 40 points.

So it goes GR PTS POSITION

10. NJ  7 40

9.  EDM 8 39

8.  NSH 6 38

7.  BUF 7 38

6.  PHI  8 37

5.  TB  8 36

NJ has the tiebreaker on all these teams except Buffalo and maybe Nashville.  I don't think they can fall any farther than 5th, and expect them to end up around where are now or perhaps a little better.  Still, 10th gets them within striking distance of Idiotville - that's where the dumb teams pass on players for terrible reasons and NJ snaps a guy up.

Renaud Lavoie reporting.

https://twitter.com/...505995177824256

Stats to date:  http://www.hockeydb.....php?pid=107596

Little surprised at this - wasn't sure they would sign him to an NHL deal.

The Devils don't control the length of the season.  As it is 48 games and not 82 games, they'll probably miss the playoffs - hockey-reference's forecast has NJ at 22.6% to make the playoffs, Sportsclubstats at 19.0%.  

So I decided I'd go through and make a list of things that, had they gone slightly otherwise, NJ would be at least 50% to make the playoffs.  I'll use stats.hockeyanalysis.com to check out the numbers, using the basic standard of 5 goals = 1 win.

The Devils have shot 6.4% at 5v5 even strength - NHL average this year looks to be about 8.1%.  Had they shot 8.1%, they would have had 13 more 5v5 goals or at least 2 more wins.

The Devils have shot 10.5% on their 5v4 power play - NHL average this year looks to be about 12.6%.  Had they shot 12.6%, they'd have 3 more goals, or 1 more point.

The Devils' goalies have stopped 83.7% of shots on their penalty kill.  Had they stopped the NHL average of 87.4%, the Devils would have allowed about 5 fewer goals on their penalty kill, or about one win.

The Devils are 2 and 7 in shootouts.  If they were 4-5, they'd have 2 more points.

The Devils are 1 and 3 in overtime - if they were 2-2, they'd have one more point.

Had all of these things happened - and all these things mean just being average, they don't even have to go over the average (I suppose we can dial back NJ's shorthanded goals by a bit too, docking them a full win) the Devils would have 8 more points and would currently be in 5th place in the East, comfortably in a playoff spot.

All of this is a way of saying that if this were an 82 game season, this would likely be a blip.  The goalies aren't playing particularly well, they can't win a shootout, but they're playing excellent hockey.  Of course the Devils would have made the playoffs with Zach Parise and this set of circumstances - but the way the team is playing this year is giving me plenty of hope for the team without him.

I guess we'll know more about this tomorrow, but the Devils sent Tim Sestito down, leaving them with 22 players and more importantly, only 12 healthy forwards.  It's a bit confusing because the trade deadline is Wednesday and tomorrow is the last game before then - after the trade deadline, rosters expand to being unlimited size.  So, as Sansa Stark said, speculating's more fun - the truth is either terrible or boring.

1:  The Devils WILL make a trade or acquire someone on waivers before then.  

Lou confuses me often, but do the Devils really need another player?  They're at 8 D.  While it sucks having to use dross like Sestito and Gionta, they get Zubrus back by at the latest, Saturday.  They're running short on tradeable draft picks, so the next move would probably have to include a player.

2:  The Devils are clearing space in case they are making a trade

This makes more sense - one doesn't know what the future holds but not having Tim Sestito on Monday won't kill the team.  Until then, they have roster flexibility.  Plus if someone was hurt in tomorrow's morning skate, they could use an emergency recall on them - I don't believe Sestito was originally an emergency recall.

3:  They're signing someone

KHL season is mostly over, Swiss season is coming to a close, maybe someone's available.  Petr Sykora doesn't seem to be getting much playing time for Bern, so that's probably not a target...

4.  Zubrus is making his return tomorrow night

DeBoer said later this week for Zubrus, and the Devils don't often make desperation moves.

5.  The Devils want to recall someone else other than Sestito and will slide them in before the deadline

Jacob Josefson is skating in Albany but hasn't been playing.  If no one's acquired, maybe he gets the call on Tuesday, and we can be saved from the Sestito-Gionta nightmare.

https://twitter.com/...392176876515328

According to capgeek, the 35+ rule will no longer apply to buyouts, either amnesty or regular.  This gives us anti-Salvadorians hope - before, he was anchored to our roster like a slow-moving defenseman.  He obviously won't be bought out this summer, but next summer?  Who knows!  Liberation could indeed come early.