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Member Since 06 May 2008
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#1192666 2013 Miami Dolphins Thread

Posted by Daniel on 22 May 2013 - 03:12 PM

A way's away, but does anyone know if there's a similar Dolphins fan event at MetLife (besides celebrating a Super Bowl  win of course :giggle: )

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#1189596 5 Things That Went Wrong

Posted by Daniel on 29 April 2013 - 12:49 PM

Sure you're not - real hard to find a guy who in each of the years where NJ won a Cup or went to the Finals, did not rank in the top 10 in save percentage.  I agree that it will be difficult to find a player that highly overrated - you're ahead of me on that score.  Brodeur was very good, and indeed he was great in some of those playoff series, but he's one of the most overrated players in sports.




Don't strain yourself too hard for superlatives.  Doubt either of these things was really true when both guys were here (maybe Stevens in the early 90s, Niedermayer at the tail end of his NJ career), but both guys were quite excellent.




Funny how according to your precious points, Zajac has already topped Holik's career high - probably not if we adjust for era, but it's certainly close.  And Zajac doesn't take a million dumb penalties like Holik, and actually kills penalties (and does so well).  Holik's quite an impressive player and I'd probably take him over Zajac but it would be awfully close.


Anyway the point we were making before you derailed was that you thought this team might be a perennial playoff missing team.  And I think that's absurd and said so.  None of this has anything to do with that.





Marty is one of the best goalies of all time, at worst top five.  Period.  You can pull out whatever stats you want, you do not win three Stanley Cups, multipel Vezinas, have the most career wins and shut outs by a wide margin by being overrated.  If you've come to any other conclusion based on your statistical analysis, there's obviously something missing from your analysis.


Zajac's high was better than Holik's high by one point.  And notice that Zajac didn't do so well when he wasn't playing with Parise.  Plus Holik was your third line center.  So puhleeze.  Holik was a better player in his prime than Zajac has been up till now, and probably ever will be.  It isn't even debateable.  (You also ignored the other centers).


But to the main point (which you derailed by spilling a lot of ink on one minor point I made) -- yes, absent adding at least one bona fide scoring forward, either from the system or in the draft, this team is close to perenially being on the outside looking in, if it isn't already.  This is especially the case as the division will be much tougher next year with teams like the Islanders and Columbus improving, and not being automatic wins.


And as I think about it more, in a heart beat I would trade the entire draft (1, 2, 4, 6 and 7) to get MacKinnon, Drouin or Barkov.  Each of those three players, from what I read anyway, are very safe bets to be excellent, if not elite, forwards, meaning forwards that can put the puck in the net, which is what goes up on the score board.  (A second round pick and below is less than something like 20 percent to play more than 50 NHL games.)   Outside of Kovalchuk and Elias -- and an old one at that -- we don't have any forwards other than guys you can describe as a "good all around player".  The scorer can be a winger or a center.  It really doesn't matter all that much.  The situation is more dire considering we have no first round pick next year.


If you were looking at any other team that would be penciling in unproven prospects on defense, that had forwards that have trouble scoring, no top ten goalie on the horizon, and no first round pick next year, you would not be all that optimistic.  However, nailing it on just one good forward in this draft, especially someone who can come in this year and put up points (yes that stat that makes your skin melt like the Ark of the Covenant), will help a great, great deal.

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#1187011 Is this the worst stretch of luck in NHL history?

Posted by Daniel on 16 April 2013 - 04:19 PM

Better than merely looking at results without any context


Looking at shot differentials is the same exact thing, which is why it drives me up a wall when people tout it. 


it helps when you have better players shooting the puck.  And what do you know, the player on the team that's best at that hasn't been playing. 

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#1187009 Is this the worst stretch of luck in NHL history?

Posted by Daniel on 16 April 2013 - 04:00 PM

I suggest you look up shot differentials.  They're quite illuminating.


I suggest you look at this 10 game losing streak and notice the lack of production. 


"they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but
they're missing something essential, because the planes don't land."

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#1186888 GDT New Jersey Devils at Leafs 7PM MSG+

Posted by Daniel on 15 April 2013 - 11:44 PM

Chico finally got real after the game when he talked about how the Devils have made 'certain' (average at best I think he meant) goalies look like legends. We outshoot and outplay teams and have nothing to show for it. He also reluctantly admitted how we lack the high end skill to finish when we need to. This team works fvcking hard to win every battle but that only takes you so far. Sometimes goals have to come easy and they just never do for this team. Chico always tries to sugarcoat things and be an optimist so I love that he got real becausend can I agree entirely.

All of these concerns have an answer. It's Kovalchuk. Perhaps some people will finally come around to how good a player he is and how valuable he is to any team, so long as it is coached competently (unlike Atlanta).

And perhaps some people will come along to what ought not be a controversial principle that the things that actually win games are goals, not puck possession, shots on goal, driving play or other nonsense. Kovalchuk is unquestionably the best player on the team at scoring goals and helping others score goals. And what do you know, he goes down, and all the sudden the Devils can't score a single goal against the likes of those titans of goaltending that are Craig Anderson and James Reimer. This losing steak has nothing to do with luck, unless by luck you mean Kovalchuk getting hurt.

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#1186820 GDT New Jersey Devils at Leafs 7PM MSG+

Posted by Daniel on 15 April 2013 - 09:11 PM

The silver lining, if you want to call it that, is that the team is playing hard, and hasn't quit on DeBoer. It's been a dreadful run, but not the sort of thing that would set the team back in the long term. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
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#1186256 2013 NHL Draft

Posted by Daniel on 12 April 2013 - 10:58 PM

Well what would you know, the goalie is part of the team and helps you win games, which is ultimately what matters, not puck possession, shots on goal, Corsi or whatever snake oil you want to apply that somehow tells you that a player that scores a lot of goals and a team that wins isn't "really" that good. Forests and trees.

lol. please bet with me on next year. you can take teams based on goalie save percentages and i'll take corsi tied.

I wouldn't make a bet based on any particular stat. I can use a little bit of common sense and conclude that a team that has lots of talented players is going to be more successful than a team that doesn't. And, I don't need to do a save percentage analysis to tell me that Bobrovosky is playing much better than he has in the past, but that he needs to show he can perform this well for a more sustained period of time until I can make the conclusion that he's a very good goalie that helps his team win games than with someone else.

Ultimately the difference between guys like me and guys like you is that I can admit that I have only a very rough idea about what teams will ultimately be successful and the degree of success. The guys that make things sound sciency are no better at predicting things than common sense and informed intuition.

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#1179185 Perry signs 8 year extension with Ducks

Posted by Daniel on 19 March 2013 - 10:53 AM

lol dude get a grip. we can't have this argument for the next 13 years. the devils are fine without him.

Yeah, but should baseball players that used steroids get into the Hall of Fame? I haven't heard enough points of view on that yet.

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#1177872 Look What I Found in Penn Station.

Posted by Daniel on 12 March 2013 - 12:54 PM

The vastness of the universe caused a mental overload.

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#1164759 No Banner Raising?

Posted by Daniel on 20 January 2013 - 10:19 PM

Because it's the stinkin Coyotes...they're looking for any little morsel they can find to celebrate. Leave that stuff to the 2nd tier franchises who retire Ray Bourques number after playing barely over a season with them, and those other guys who retire Adam Graves for being "pretty good"

Adam Graves was part of the greatest group of human beings that ever gathered together for a few months and obtained the greatest achievement in the history of the universe. Sam Rosen said so.
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#1163320 Zajac sign Long Term Deal

Posted by Daniel on 16 January 2013 - 04:27 PM

One unfortunately stupid consequence of the Devils allowing Josefson to play for them in 10-11 is that now he and Henrique are UFA the same year (2017). Now depending on what sort of contracts they sign that may not be an issue (and depending on their career trajectories, etc.), but I imagine 2017 is when the 'pain' from this contract might begin to be felt. Before that, it's smooth sailing through calm seas.

If Josefson, Henrique and Larsson are good enough that Zajac's deal might make it difficult to sign all of them when they hit UFA status, then we're in very good shape for the next four years.
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#1163224 Zajac sign Long Term Deal

Posted by Daniel on 16 January 2013 - 02:27 PM

Before we start all the "why didn't Lou get this done with Parise" arguments, the new CBA and long term contract limits is what made this possible.
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#1162817 Rags practice to be on TV tomorrow

Posted by Daniel on 15 January 2013 - 12:02 PM

Maybe they'll launch streamers every time someone scores on a two on one drill.
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#1158435 Lockout 2012-2013 (Hockey's back!)

Posted by Daniel on 10 December 2012 - 03:36 PM

This lockout has become a disaster of Biblical proportions. We're talking Old Testament, real wrath of God type stuff. Fire and brimstone coming down from the sky! Rivers and seas boiling! Forty years of darkness, earthquakes, volcanoes! The dead rising from their graves! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, Devils fans saying nice things about Henrik Lundqvist ... MASS HYSTERIA!!!

:headless chicken:

Agreed. One time I turned into a dog, and he helped me. Thank you.
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#1157848 Onlin Petition

Posted by Daniel on 03 December 2012 - 04:42 PM

If you want to sign a petition go ahead. It'll accomplish as much as the recent petition on the White House website to begin construction of the Death Star.
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