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Member Since 09 Sep 2002
Offline Last Active Today, 04:46 PM

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In Topic: What NHL forward is currently worth the 6th pick

Today, 10:46 AM

2 out of the last 3 drafts, sure.  When you look at 2 picks moved out of the last I dunno, 15 drafts, it starts to look less common.  I really can't remember it happening much.  Oh, the Rangers traded for the 4th overall in 99, so there's that.  Philadelphia dealt for 4th overall in 2002.  Different era though - bonuses could be an issue back then, now they're not.  It's worth noting that both of those trades happened with Tampa.


Burke had to do 100 things in the 1999 draft to get both Sedins if I remember correctly.

In Topic: What NHL forward is currently worth the 6th pick

Today, 07:19 AM

2 trades of top ten picks in three years doesn't make it seem like such a rarity. And in this case, if maybe not for the sixth pick, Edmonton is a pretty good match to make a trade to be able to draft one of Provorov, Hanifin or Warenski. Unless they want to take a shot and see if Kylington is still around at 16.

Otherwise, Lou's comments about the sixth pick are encouraging. It could be a total bust, but at least it's even more clear that he isn't blind to reality. It'll show in the second and third rounds though if he cuts it out with drafting size over skill, I.e no more Connor Chathams over Brayden Points.

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I don't see Edmonton trading any forwards for a draft pick. I don't see them making any deals that set them back in any way. Edmonton has a whole bunch of really great forwards, but after that, their depth is horrendous. 


As Tri said, you need a team that wants to get worse to trade a proven great player for a 6th overall pick.You hear Kessel rumours because Toronto is one of those teams. I'm not sure there are many others. The idea of trading a 6th pick for an older proven scorer is so foreign because teams that draft 6th overall should be using that draft choice. You aren't close to the playoffs generally if you are drafting 6th overall, and the Devils were closer to bottom 3 than the playoffs. Also, the 6th pick is never a sure thing, so that's a lot of risk for the team giving up the proven player.

In Topic: What NHL forward is currently worth the 6th pick

Yesterday, 09:34 PM

No, not a lot of Larsson's shots went in, I agree.  So yeah, Larsson didn't have 'insane shooting luck' and I should be more careful about how I use words.  What he did have was an insane IPP.  IPP is the number of points a player gets divided by the total number of goals scored while he is on the ice.  Larsson got points on 61% of the goals the Devils scored while he was on the ice, which sounds not that remarkable, but it's actually the highest of any defenseman this year.  Is that sustainable?  Well, no, it's not - when you zoom out and look at multiple years, it becomes more difficult to do that.  The highest is Karlsson at 51.5%.  I'm not sure that Larsson really controls the offense in the way that it looked this year.  He has excellent breakout passing and his shot has improved and he can find guys in traffic, but I don't think he's an offensive dynamo.  He's above-average.  I just don't think with his skating and shot that he is ever going to be an excellent offensive player.


How is it 'semantics'?  Semantics is literally going to be me arguing that you don't know what semantics means.  The idea that every sophomore struggles, or even that most do, is wrong.  It just appears that way because it's much easier to think of 1st year players who didn't live up to that 1st year (basically a ton of players who won the Calder Trophy/were nominated).  There is no 'best 2nd year player' trophy.  How about Steven Stamkos?  Nicklas Backstrom?  Paul Kariya had a fine first season - he exploded in his 2nd year.  Same with Peter Forsberg.  And you know what?  I had to look this up too, because I honestly didn't know.  But compare this list of 1st year forwards to this list of 2nd year forwards and tell me the sophomore slump is common - 19 70 point seasons versus 6 for 1st year players, 38 60 point seasons versus 14 for 1st year players, etc.


I don't think Severson's 1st season is fluky at all and I don't think he will have a dip in production - quite the opposite.  Yes, he was eased back into the lineup, and yes his shots on goal dipped a lot when he was moved away from Greene/the power play was changed to Adam Oates's idiocy.  He's got tremendous talent and he's already showed the ability to take over shifts in a way that most rookies cannot.  He's a star in the making, and it sucks if you can't see it.


Nice post. Sophomore slump is horsesh!t. NBA has a most-improved award, which highlights a lot of great players that take a jump from year 1 to year 2 and 2 to 3. 


The potential of an Oates PP could hurt Severson there next season. That be a shame.


And comparing +/- between the two Devilsfan18...I think we can move on from that stat. 

In Topic: What NHL forward is currently worth the 6th pick

21 April 2015 - 12:32 PM

Larsson and Severson are off limits. If other teams want a young d-man, they'll get Merrill and/or Gelinas and like it. Or they can piss off.


Just don't expect much in return. You trade Merrill or Gelinas and you are getting a project the other way. You trade Larsson (who I am positive the Devils won't), you get something a bit more substantial, but he isn't going to be a key piece in any deal for a good young player.

In Topic: Realistic Coaching Options thread

20 April 2015 - 01:21 PM

Ok fair points. I still don't think Oates is Lou's #1 choice though. I think (hope) he'd prefer an outside solution. If none of those solutions are interested in coming here, maybe he'll choose Oates because he at that point would be the best option. But I don't think the situation here is as bad as people make it out to be. Lou has respect around the league, and I think we could attract a decent coach from the outside.


The job is up for grabs, but my feeling is Lou was extremely happy with the work Oates did given the circumstance. He was up close and saw all the teaching and video work Adam did with all the forwards, and knows he can coach a system that he likes to see. The players had raving reviews for the changes he made with each one individually. Will his constant controlling ways grate at them like they eventually did in Washington, perhaps, but so far so good.


If Lou wants to win next season and return to the playoffs, I don't see him taking a shot on an assistant coach or someone who has not been a head coach in the NHL before. I don't think he wants major systematic changes either. With Oates, there is a comfort level in place, so it ticks off a few boxes. 


I'm really hoping it's not him, although at the same time, I'm not against Oates just sabotaging this team further so that they continue to suck, and force much bigger changes within the organization.