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hoekster316

Member Since 02 Aug 2009
Offline Last Active Jul 02 2015 11:19 AM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: The Official Devils GAME WORN Jersey Thread

02 May 2015 - 09:11 AM

If you haven't done so yet, you gotta check out these photos of the Sharks equipment sale. This is how it's done! I've never been inside the Devils equipment sale (not a STH, so lines were way too long) but I wish they'd bring it back and do it like this:

http://gameworn.us/r...pment-sale-wow/


*even the giant shark that the team uses for player intros can be purchased...for $290,000.

In Topic: Slow News Day: Kremlin Edition- Could IK Come Back to NHL?

10 April 2015 - 07:22 AM

If the by-laws loophole is legit, then we absolutely should take Kovalchuk back. At the very least, we trade him (which is the most likely outcome IMO). It'd be foolish not to accept a player with his talents and trade value. I know we all hate him for leaving but not bringing him back for either option would be cutting off the nose to spite the face.

Given the insane contract that he signed, the scenario of him coming back (whether to play or to be traded) would really be the best possibility: he voided his contract at the ideal time, saving the franchise $2+ mill in recapture penalties and ending his bloated contract during a time of financial instability. If traded, we get something for him. If we keep him, we get an elite scorer that our team desperately needs.

Btw, looks like this is nearing completion...
http://homesoftheric...ine-nj-mansion/

In Topic: Realistic trade targets in the offseason

09 April 2015 - 10:14 AM

I don't want to seem argumentative or repetitive, but I think you are very wrong on this. I had a few minutes and took a look at forwards drafted around where we'll pick since 2000. There were 30 total forwards drafted since then in spots 6, 7 and 8 overall. Of those 30 forwards, only 14 have EVER scored 20 goals in a season. The average goals scored per season among those 30 players is 11. Granted it's early for guys like Lindholm and Scheifele, who bring the average down but look to be top 6 players and could have some 20 goal season in them yet.

 

But then I took out the first 2 NHL seasons each of those guys played, considering they were still adjusting to the NHL and that could be bringing the average down, and even then, only 5 guys drafted at 6,7 or 8 overall averaged at least 20 goals a season in their career- Hartnell, Michalek, Voracek, Skinner and Monahan.

 

I know this was a crude analysis, but I'll be generous and confidently say that history shows we have, at best, about a 20% chance of drafting a consistent 20 goal scorer with this pick. I don't think Kessel is necessarily the answer to our problems- and I would not add anything significant to an offer- but if we move the pick for him it would not be as bad as some have made it out to be.

 

Edit: if someone knows how to post tables from excel I'd be happy to post the numbers...

 

Agreed in full. I definitely think that people tend to over-value first round draft picks. Lots of fans, myself included, were ticked off when Lou traded our 9th overall pick in 2013 for Schneider. But, after the dust settled and I had a chance to evaluate the situation, I realized he traded a gamble opportunity for a guaranteed #1 goalie.

In Topic: Realistic trade targets in the offseason

08 April 2015 - 02:31 PM

Here's a couple of points in Kessel's favor:

 

If he matched his 12.3% shooting rate of the last three seasons, he'd have 33 goals right now.  If he matched his career rate of 10.8%, he'd have 29 goals.  His 8.9 shooting% this season is his lowest since '07-'08 (for whatever that's worth).   

 

$8 million per season (cap hit) is still a LOT of coin though.  He's also signed for SEVEN more years, not four:

 

Cap Hit: $8 million.
2015-16: $10 million.
2016-17: $9 million.
2017-18: $9 million.
2018-19: $7 million.
2019-20: $7 million.
2020-21: $6 million.
2021-22: $6 million.
2022-23: UFA

 

It's risky, especially since he's not exactly renowned for work ethic, attitude, and being able to do more than score. 

 

Ah crap, you're right. I'm all kinds of messed up without CapGeek. :(

 

In that case, yes, Toronto would need to take on some of his salary.

In Topic: Realistic trade targets in the offseason

08 April 2015 - 02:06 PM

The Devils are in a good enough position capwise that they don't need Toronto to retain any of his salary.  If the Devils are actually interested in trading for him, I imagine this will be part of the justification for offering less than other teams might in prospects/picks. 

 

 

Enough of washed up players past their prime.  No to FROLIK, No to St. Louis, No to THORNTON.

 

If you make a trade for Kessel, Toronto better be retaining at least 25% of his salary or it's a no deal.

 

 

Tons of people apparently think Kessel is overpaid. I really don't see it that way. He is an elite goal scorer with five 30+ goal seasons (would've been 6 if not for the lockout). With the new CBA preventing front-loaded contracts, that production is absolutely worth IMHO his $8 mill cap hit. He's 27 and has four seasons 7 seasons left on his contract - analytics show he should remain an elite goal scorer for at least two of these seasons.