SMantzas

Crazy how fast he has fallen. Possible buyout, and I bet many teams would give him a chance on a lower contract. I wouldn't mind the Devils giving him a one year contract. Absolutely no risk. But I really want Stalberg.

No thanks to Richards. I like Zajac, Loktionov, JJ down the middle

If you have them on hand, how many of the 18 years old played under 20 games? How many had a scoring pace under 15 points? How many who played juniors had a scoring rate of under 0.81 points per game?

The point kind of being, we don't need to use generalities with Matteau or Urbom. We can see their specific cases.

The other day you claimed Tatar on Detroit is a good prospect but now claim Urbom likely isn't, due to age. In both cases the players were likely blocked by the NHL team not having spots open, not through their own lack of ability.

Matteau played 17 games this year as an 18 year old. I watched all those games. In the vast majority of them he played a nothing role and had little impact. I don't think that says much about his NHL future one way or another as most forwards drafted could play a nothing role and have little impact.

He played with subpar players besides a few games with Kovy. He got chances, showed willingness to bang bodies and had some flashes. That pass to Loktionov exhibited some serious skills and smarts

My God this is awesome - @AGrossRecord: Richards says he'll be a healthy scratch.

Maybe you're right about what he'll become. I saw him play, and am not as high on him as some people, but that's just me. Josefson made the team as a 19 (maybe early 20?) year old, but has regressed a little bit. Tedenby dramatically so.

Really, it started out with the objection about how Matteau could be ranked so low as compared to a bunch of other players that are 21 year old AHLers. Maybe it is a valid objection, I just wouldn't base it so much on the fact that he made it to the NHL this year.

Like Tri said, if you're not in the league by 22, you're probably going to be a tweener. I get organizational strengths, but Urbom is probably not going to be anything more than a bottom pairing dman.

Goalies are a total crapshoot

Scarlett had a great season...in his overage junior season.

If I had to do a top 10 (not that it means anything)

Merrill
Severson
Matteau
Gelinas
Boucher
Urbom
Scarlett
Pietila
Burlon
Wedgewood

This is one of those arguments that doesn't really have any meaning without any context. Sort of like the idea that drafting a defenseman is a more risky proposition than drafting a forward, and thus it should inform your draft strategy. It matters precisely who you are talking about, and not just saying a player got playing time at 18 and will thus have a good career since that's what usually happens, or you ought to be hesitant to draft Adam Larsson over Courturier since the bust potential for a defenseman is greater. Obviously, the vast majority of 18 year old NHLers are top 10 or even top 5 picks in drafts of varying quality. Not to mention the fact that it's the bad teams that are drafting that high in the first place.

Matteau was maybe the only forward that wasn't named Tim Sestito that you could plausibly call up for a significant period of time, especially when you had a shortened season with virtually no training camp which made things a little quirky this year. Under most circumstances and with most teams his arrival time would have been about the same as any bottom first rounder in a so-so draft.

Don't get me wrong, I think he'll be a useful if not good player. It just doesn't have much to do wtih the fact that he got some playing time this past year.

Not sure i understand your premise. You're trying to argue that Matteau held his own against men as an 18 year old doesnt hold any water? I think it's pretty damn impressive he averaged over a shot a game with limited ice time. Just wait till he gets bigger and stronger and I believe you'll see a 20-20 player