Jump to content

ATLL765

Member Since 02 Oct 2010
Offline Last Active Yesterday, 12:19 PM
-----

Posts I've Made

In Topic: Jagr traded to Florida

Yesterday, 08:30 AM

I love how the caption says 'two reasons why the Jagr trade was a shocker' then Chere's first sentence says 'It came as no surprise the Devils traded right-winger Jaromir Jagr Thursday' :lol:

In addition to that, one of the surprises was that LL traded Jagr to a team above us in the standing. Did anyone expect one of Carolina, Buffalo, Toronto or Columbus to trade for Jagr?

In Topic: 2014-15 Prospect Thread

Yesterday, 08:15 AM

 

Thursday 2/26
OHL
 
Plymouth defeated Sarnia 6-3
Connor Chatham RW: E, 2 PIM (Tripping)
Season: 45 GP 16-19-35, E, 49 PIM
 
-- 1 goal over his last 5 games after a 6 game scoring streak where he had 9 points. 10 points in his last 11 games.

I'd rather see it phrased like this, lol.

In Topic: Larsson blossoming

Yesterday, 07:58 AM

Even if  OI shooting% mattered here, you are making the same mistake that a lot of advanced stats people casually make (aside from the real expert guys): anything you think is a 'fluke' or luck 'this year' is just as likely to happen next year.

 

Totally missed this the first time I read your post.

So since it was extremely unlikely that his career 41.3% secondary assist rate at ES would be about the same every year outside of last season in the first place, it means it's still extremely unlikely to be just as high once again next year.

This is not the equivalent of the 50/50 chance on any given coin flip, but more like how if you won 5 times in a row on the first 5 scratch off lottery tickets you ever buy, it wouldn't mean you're likely to win on the next one.

 

And that is because what you like to call 'luck' is not a random event, but mathematics evening themselves out.

On this: If it was a skill, you'd be able to consistently do better than the average rather than it being mathematics evening out since that would instead be the very definition of a random event in hockey.

In Topic: Larsson blossoming

Yesterday, 04:42 AM

You are missing what I am saying. By your logic, there is no benefit to passing well because if you are not Crosby then you can't increase TMOIshooting%. Larsson passing more fluidly and with more confidence out of the defensive zone = good = more offense. Larsson is also going to play much more next year over the whole season. There is a direct correlation between his increased ice time (16:30 ES mins for the year/20-2 ES mins/g lately) and his in increase points. But I digress: it does not matter what the Devils on-ice shooting% is. He is passing better. That will lead to goals. Even if  OI shooting% mattered here, you are making the same mistake that a lot of advanced stats people casually make (aside from the real expert guys): anything you think is a 'fluke' or luck 'this year' is just as likely to happen next year. And that is because what you like to call 'luck' is not a random event, but mathematics evening themselves out.

It's not that his outlet passes and passing skill in general won't generate offense. It's that goals aren't scored very often after 1 or 2 passes out of the defensive zone, especially so with this team where scoring off the rush is an extremely rare event. So that skill isn't likely to generate a ton of assists, secondary or otherwise. Due to this, I feel like it's still not likely he'll ever become a truly elite offensive force that consistently produces 40+ point seasons.

 

His outlet passes are definitely a + or even ++ skill, but that's not enough in my opinion to create that kind of offense unless his play on the PP improves dramatically since that's the only way I think he'll have those 40+ point seasons. However, with Severson, Merrill and Gelinas all seemingly trusted more than Larsson as an option for PP QB, it's unlikely that Larsson will ever be a top option on the 1st PP unit. He's improved to the point where he'll probably start getting some PP time on the 2nd unit once Severson comes back, but that's not going to be enough to push his point totals all that much higher.

In Topic: 2014-2015 Around the league thread

Yesterday, 04:28 AM

So the latest from twitterverse is that CHI is looking to add a, specifically, "Skinner or Camalleri" type player.

Cammy + Quennville for Kane? Heheheheheehheeh

Oops wrong thread


It sucks to lose someone as talented as Kane, especially when he was producing more than 1ppg and on track for 35 goals, which would be a career high.

If they want a guy of Skinner or Cammalleri's caliber, they're going to have to give up their 1st and a quality prospect. I think they'd be better off picking up a guy who's struggling, but is seen as needing a change of scenery and then praying to the hockey Gods to take mercy on them and allow them to make it to the WCF and have Kane be ready by then.

Maybe someone like Cody Hodgson is a guy they might be able to pick up for either a pick or prospect, rather than having to package both together for a more skilled player.

He seems like a worthy project since most of his stats are still in line with what he's done previously. His offense is still disappointing this year, but if he had better luck this year, his ES PDO is 97.2, he'd probably have at least another 7 ES points. That would give him 16 points at ES and that's really not too far off what he produced in 2013 when he had a similar amount of TOI. Only having 1 secondary assist and that also being his sole point on the PP appears to be a significant in his lack of offense this season.