I stand by my prediction of a landslide of Carter-Reagan proportions. It's common sense.
Not one single McCain voter from four years ago will vote for Obama in 2012. But Obama will lose votes from several blocs because of his horrid record: Hispanics, women, white men, Catholics, Jews, small businesspeople. It's going to cost Obama every swing state, plus more. People are going to be talking about how inaccurate most polls were.
Watch as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin fall into the Romney column. Watch New Jersey and Nevada be nail-biters.
Let's watch and see.
You got basically nothing correct. The President has won by an electoral landslide. Florida is not even called yet and he already has 303 EV's.
Common sense? Common sense is not completely disregarding every single poll because its not going your side's way or blaming "the mainstream media" for all that ails the country. Common sense is not encouraging your party to go hard right when the demographics in this country are changing constantly and white people (myself included) no longer hold the cards.
Oh really? Romney got 100K less than McCain in Ohio and 200K less than Bush (04). Hispanics? At this point (3am) Hispanics voted for the President by a 3-1 margin which is BETTER than his 2008 margin in that same bloc. 40 point shellacking and he underperformed McCain among Hispanics nationwide! Obama won women 55 to 45 and both of these margins are expected to stay the same or grow by the time everything is counted. He didnt win white men, but the difference from 2008 was -3% and no one expected him to win that bloc. 70% of the Jewish vote. He's WON EVERY swing state bar NC (which almost all pollsters/pundits say was a longshot) with FL possibly going his way. The only improvement Romney made over McCain was the popular vote gap (no surprise), taking back Indiana and NC - which at the end of the day is nothing. Hell, Bush barely won in 2000 and 2004 and they're the most razor thin elections in modern history. The last time a Republican won with any sort of distance in the #s is 1988, now 24 years ago.
The GOP got slammed tonight. There is nothing they can hang their hat on, except the fact that a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage candidate (Christie) has a good shot in 2016 depending on how Obama's 2nd term goes and who runs for the Dems. Is it any surprise that the gap in the polls closed when Romney disingenuously lurched to the center in the first debate? When Romney was running hard right, he was getting smoked! W ran from the center-right from day one and still barely won. Gay marriage passed in every state it was on the ballot. The attempts to restrict women's reproductive rights was hammered in FL. Allen West is likely out. Michelle Bachmann could be out. Akin, Mourdock, Tommy Thompson, and basically every single senate seat that was contested has gone to the Democrats with a net gain of +4 not impossible with 3 races left to decide. At the very least, its going to remain the same in terms of the BOP in the Senate. The House has had a few more seats tip to the GOP with the re-districting, but no one expected the Dems to have a chance to take it.
Oh and just for kicks, Obama won PA by at 5 points. Too bad you didnt take the bet.