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bekim

Member Since 29 Sep 2005
Offline Last Active Jul 04 2015 09:17 AM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: Friedman: Devils Could Take Run At MSL

04 June 2015 - 11:13 AM

Agree Mazz, a 1 year deal is fine.  But to me, this all seems like speculation and nothing more as opposed to an actual rumor.  A 1 year deal would be fine for the Devils.  Will MSL want to come to a non playoff team on his final contract?  I dunno about that.  Might be a better move for him to just take a million on some perennially good team for one last shot.  NJ lacks all kinds of depth at Forward.  So, we'll see.  

In Topic: Friedman: Devils Could Take Run At MSL

04 June 2015 - 09:25 AM

Fine with the idea. Despite his weak PO performance he did put up 50 points. Rather have him in the top 6 than put a guy not ready into a tough spot.

 

Barring no significant trade

 

Henrique-Gomez-Boucher

Cammalleri-Zajac-St. Louis

Elias-Josefson-Matteau

Zubrus-Kalinin-Ruutu

Tootoo

sure fire way to make sure he fails if you saddle him with zajac, one of the league's worst ES/60 players in the league. but yeah, i think a 1 year deal is fine if NJ wanted to consider this. 2 not okay. but i think MSL himself would need to swallow a lot of pride to come to a team like the devils. who knows what he thinks of his own value. it might be months before he realizes he needs a situation like jagr needed, and it might take 10 or 15 other teams passing on his services before he seriously considers a team like NJ. who knows. all speculation. what would our pitch be: "come to nj, we've got 4-6 centermen for you who can't put up top 6 numbers to save their lives."

In Topic: Forwards for next year

24 March 2015 - 10:49 AM

Great post Bekim, good analysis.

 

Makes it a little more apparent just how bad this team is.

:wub:

In Topic: Forwards for next year

24 March 2015 - 12:18 AM

Here's some interesting data from last year.

 

The top 90 forwards produced at 0.66 points per game or at around 54 points (or greater) over 82 games.  

Forwards ranked 91-180 produced at 0.47 points per game or at around 38 points (or greater) over 82 games.

Forwards ranked 181-270 produced at 0.31 points per game or at around 25 points (or greater) over 82 games.

 

From that data......

 

A 1st line forward is about 50 points or better

A 2nd line forward is about 40 - 49 points.

A 3rd line forward is about 25 - 30 points.

A 4th line forward is about 24 points or fewer.

 

These are all just rough estimates of course.

No offense, but this is exceptionally rosy thinking.  Averaging all data from all forwards across all ice times and then to count them up as they are here and drawing arbitrary dividing lines... seems to really skew the data.  For one, because this doesn't take into account playoff teams vs non playoff teams.  Who cares what "a 1st line forward" means if the definition of 1st liner includes "anything from a Penguin top line to a Sabre top line"?  And this also doesn't account for the fact that the top 30 forwards in your data (of the top 90) will have a huge deviation from the bottom 30 (of the top 90).

 

More meaningful is to look at our own division - and the teams that are playoff teams - and to compare them against our players...

 

Right now, here's what that looks like:

  • Islanders: 2 players averaging nearly a point per game (or 82 over 82) [Tavares/Okposo]
  • Ragss: 1 player who will finish 70+ [Nash] and who will finish 60+ [Brassard]
  • Pens: 2 players averaging over a point per game [Crosby/Malkin], and 2 in the 0.8 ppg (or 65+ pts) [Hornqvist/Letang]
  • Caps: 2 players at a point per game [Ovechkin/Backstrom]

So by my estimation, if you want to make the playoffs in our division, it'd be wise to have at least two players averaging 0.8 ppg, and there's a huge difference between the definition of "50 or better" and "0.8 ppg [65pts] or better".

 

Adam Henrique and Mike Cammer are clipping at 0.62 points per game (well below 0.8) and are the only NJ players anywhere near the above range of 0.8.  Point and case, NJ has two forwards that project out to 51 points, and every other "good" team in our division has at least has two guys that are in the 65 to 85 point range.  Within our division, Henrique and Cammalleri are only "first line forwards" based on production averages in the sense that sure, they could play first line minutes on other bad teams too and produce at their current clip.  If however NJ wants to make the playoffs, they need their "1st line forwards" to be better.  We don't need a Tavares or a 90 point player, but we absofruitly need guys who can put up 65 points that are chewing up the big top line minutes.  It's not okay to have 50 pointers and nothing better, and it's arbitrary as all heckfire to say "we're good... when compared against this large set of meaningless league data."

 

Oh and for the record, even the non-playoff teams in our division have much better forwards.  Phili has 2 at nearly ppg. Columbus has about 3 around or above the 0.8 ppg.  Only Carolina is as piss-pathetic as NJ, except for them their Henrique is Eric Staal (around 0.65 ppg).  Henrique and Cammalleri are 2nd liners based on divisional scoring.  NJ lacks 3 "1st line" players.  

 

And hopefully *that* puts things in perspective, because those other #s are really nonsense IMO.  Not trying to be doom-and-gloom, because I think guys like Henrique and Cam *could* put up 65 points if things were going well for NJ, but this team is far from ok, and league numbers broken up in chunks of 90 don't paint our picture at all.

In Topic: Forwards for next year

20 March 2015 - 10:52 AM

First off - assuming we pick a forward with our 1st pick this year isn't a safe assumption.  But I'm pretty certain it is safe to say he won't be NHL ready next year.

 

Boucher on the first line spells disaster.  Kid has not shown a single thing that indiciates he's ready for prime-time minutes.  Then again, if you're trying to tank (our new favorite word!) it's not a bad idea.

 

Zajac on the 3rd isn't going to happen.  While he might be a 3rd line forward in 2/3 of the teams in this league, the Devils are paying him like a top center so he'll be given 1st line minutes.

 

It says something about how pathetic our forward corps is that we're potentially relying on Scott freakin Gomez to be our top center in 2015-2016.

I guess so - but IMO this kind of thinking is dangerous - leads to extended mediocrity without the necessary growing pains.  I have no investment in more and more mediocre teams who flirt with making the playoffs but never do.  We've done that already.  What's the difference if the disaster is we miss by a lot vs we miss by a little?  Especially if the former gets young players more valuable experience? And if NJ wants to play Zajac as a #1 or #2 center, go for it, but his numbers (as someone pointed out not long ago) are almost the worst in the entire league for centers at even strength per minute.  He's been objectively awful [at producing offense].  Better to accept that, accept his albatross contract as a negative value, but at least use him in the correct role where he can succeed, ignoring the dollars--which is 3rd line center who can put up offense against unsuspecting other top lines.  Zajac just isn't going back to the day of 60 points anytime soon.  Not unless NJ finds a cherry-winger for him to make him look good.  He should be their 3rd line center going forward and they should let Josefson show if he has anything more outside of 4th/3rd line production.  I don't fear missing the playoffs again.  I fear almost making them again with yet more retread-mediocre talent.  It's time for something new.  We're not 1 piece away from a great roster.