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bekim

Member Since 29 Sep 2005
Offline Last Active Mar 27 2015 09:07 AM
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#1310912 Forwards for next year

Posted by bekim on 24 March 2015 - 12:18 AM

Here's some interesting data from last year.

 

The top 90 forwards produced at 0.66 points per game or at around 54 points (or greater) over 82 games.  

Forwards ranked 91-180 produced at 0.47 points per game or at around 38 points (or greater) over 82 games.

Forwards ranked 181-270 produced at 0.31 points per game or at around 25 points (or greater) over 82 games.

 

From that data......

 

A 1st line forward is about 50 points or better

A 2nd line forward is about 40 - 49 points.

A 3rd line forward is about 25 - 30 points.

A 4th line forward is about 24 points or fewer.

 

These are all just rough estimates of course.

No offense, but this is exceptionally rosy thinking.  Averaging all data from all forwards across all ice times and then to count them up as they are here and drawing arbitrary dividing lines... seems to really skew the data.  For one, because this doesn't take into account playoff teams vs non playoff teams.  Who cares what "a 1st line forward" means if the definition of 1st liner includes "anything from a Penguin top line to a Sabre top line"?  And this also doesn't account for the fact that the top 30 forwards in your data (of the top 90) will have a huge deviation from the bottom 30 (of the top 90).

 

More meaningful is to look at our own division - and the teams that are playoff teams - and to compare them against our players...

 

Right now, here's what that looks like:

  • Islanders: 2 players averaging nearly a point per game (or 82 over 82) [Tavares/Okposo]
  • Ragss: 1 player who will finish 70+ [Nash] and who will finish 60+ [Brassard]
  • Pens: 2 players averaging over a point per game [Crosby/Malkin], and 2 in the 0.8 ppg (or 65+ pts) [Hornqvist/Letang]
  • Caps: 2 players at a point per game [Ovechkin/Backstrom]

So by my estimation, if you want to make the playoffs in our division, it'd be wise to have at least two players averaging 0.8 ppg, and there's a huge difference between the definition of "50 or better" and "0.8 ppg [65pts] or better".

 

Adam Henrique and Mike Cammer are clipping at 0.62 points per game (well below 0.8) and are the only NJ players anywhere near the above range of 0.8.  Point and case, NJ has two forwards that project out to 51 points, and every other "good" team in our division has at least has two guys that are in the 65 to 85 point range.  Within our division, Henrique and Cammalleri are only "first line forwards" based on production averages in the sense that sure, they could play first line minutes on other bad teams too and produce at their current clip.  If however NJ wants to make the playoffs, they need their "1st line forwards" to be better.  We don't need a Tavares or a 90 point player, but we absofruitly need guys who can put up 65 points that are chewing up the big top line minutes.  It's not okay to have 50 pointers and nothing better, and it's arbitrary as all heckfire to say "we're good... when compared against this large set of meaningless league data."

 

Oh and for the record, even the non-playoff teams in our division have much better forwards.  Phili has 2 at nearly ppg. Columbus has about 3 around or above the 0.8 ppg.  Only Carolina is as piss-pathetic as NJ, except for them their Henrique is Eric Staal (around 0.65 ppg).  Henrique and Cammalleri are 2nd liners based on divisional scoring.  NJ lacks 3 "1st line" players.  

 

And hopefully *that* puts things in perspective, because those other #s are really nonsense IMO.  Not trying to be doom-and-gloom, because I think guys like Henrique and Cam *could* put up 65 points if things were going well for NJ, but this team is far from ok, and league numbers broken up in chunks of 90 don't paint our picture at all.


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#1210861 Devils make cuts

Posted by bekim on 20 September 2013 - 02:29 PM

I'm more interested in the D-men... You've got 6 regulars locked in, and then half-regular Harrold (only eats his prunes some of the time), and then some young guys who kinda look like they can play (Gelinas, Urbom, Merrill).  Even conservatively, if you can only make a case for one of the 3 kids, that's 8D if you keep Harrold.  NJ has certainly done this in the past, but with a jam of regulars who likely won't sit games, it still seems crowded.

 

Question is: at this point, is there any realistic chance of a Salvador-type getting shipped out prior to Oct 1?  I'd like to see Gelinas make the team and get playing time, but not just to rotate in 1 every 10 games.


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#1209337 [Official] Damien Brunner signed to multi-year deal

Posted by bekim on 06 September 2013 - 11:42 AM

Really? Rod Brind'amour? Not only is he the only guy uglier than Lyle Odelein, he's also most closely associated to me with the Flyers and Hurricanes. Definitely not my first choice in terms of dreaming of bringing someone out of retirement. :P

 

On a positive note, it'd piss off the Philly faithful something awful.

Cmon, be fair.  You're forgetting Mike Ricci.


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#1201501 RUMOR Jagr interested in Devils

Posted by bekim on 09 July 2013 - 10:34 PM

I can't believe there is so much opposition. Even through his late season scoring droughts, Jagr was still dishing the puck with the best of them. On a team that has two or three solid passers, hands like Jagrs could work wonders for this PP

Yeah buddy.  Definitely agree.  But I think opposition comes in when the current lineup is considered.  Personally, if NJ could sign him to reasonable money (1 year max) and it were to bump a Gionta out of the lineup, all the better.  Would be cool as hell to see him out there in a Devils sweater.  Plus his awesome playoff chops are invaluable.  But I don't think NJ can offer him a top 6 spot or top 6 money.  But we'll see.  You never know!


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#1088493 Rank Our Forwards

Posted by bekim on 06 February 2012 - 01:16 PM

I think the interesting part of this thread is namely the top players. That said...

1. ELIAS - best overall forward on team; makes others better, has transitioned to center beautifully, and is sound defensively as well for the most part.

2. PARISE - tons of speed, smart player, works ridiculously hard. not as much a "pure talent" as Kovalchuk, but sets a great example every night and deserves to be the captain.

3. KOVALCHUK - the most skilled guy on the team, and NJs best passer (which is often overshadowed by his propensity for goal scoring); has on-ice vision like no one else on the team; has put up a big effort every single night this season and has become a great Devil; very close with Parise in overall value, but I put him at the 3-spot for now.

4. ZAJAC - this one is difficult given his injury, and last year's lackluster performance. But prior to last year, I used to tell people he was our best defensive forward, and I still believe that will prove to be true. Has a good skillset, sees the ice well, and is definitely one of the better 2-way centers in the league. I know he's primarily been our #1 center last few years, so no one thinks of him as a #2 or #3, but that's probably the role he'll fall into if Elias & Henrique keep it up. Overall, very solid player.

5. HENRIQUE - not much sample data on this guy yet to compare him with others, but based on what we see, his work ethic, his creativity, and his ability to make things happen, he's certainly in the top player discussion, but obviously, #4 and #5 are not in the same discussion as #s 1-3.

6. ZUBRUS - one of my favorite Devils now; works insanely hard every game and has become our true utility guy; can play any position; not much of a finisher, but he's having an incredible season, and when he's not putting up points, he's running guys, digging in the corner, extremely valuable piece to this puzzle.
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