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nmigliore

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Posts posted by nmigliore

  1. 1 minute ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    Yeah hard to think that it’s not going to be one of Holtz or Casey going back the other way, should this actually happen.  Doesn’t thrill me, but I can’t pretend to think something like a second-rounder and spare parts gets this done.

    As far as Casey’s future, I still think Fitz will try to deal Dougie with a couple of years left on his deal.  That would open up a spot for Casey, just as he’s finishing up at Michigan (of course he may want to come out earlier than that if there’s an opportunity for him). 

    Even if Dougie gets moved in the future, I think you're looking at Luke PP1, Nemec PP2. It's a tough group to crack. I wouldn't think twice about moving Casey + for Markstrom right now.

    Holtz as I as said is tougher but I'd still do it. Unfair treatment from Lindy or not, he hasn't show any ability to drive five-on-five play. Maybe he ends up a 30+ goal scorer playing with play-driving linemates while being on a PP1... or maybe he's Sharangovich 2.0 who pots about 15-20 goals per year as an okay middle-6 forward. I think the latter is roughly his floor, but I'd still be willing to move that for Markstrom given our window. 

  2. 21 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    @nmigliore being that you’re factoring having to give up less to bring Markstrom here, what are you willing to give up for him?

    Casey with pick(s)? That's the easy "yes" for me since he seems a bit out of place here given our young defense depth who can play on the PP. I don't think that gets it done, though, so if not him I'd probably be willing to part with Holtz if you pushed me hard enough. I know that's unpopular but the Devils need to capitalize on this window of having players entering and/or in their prime at highly reasonable cap hits, this year's result be damned.

  3. To me it's more about wise asset/financial management more than the actual player. I firmly believe goalies are voodoo so the cheaper you can find a potential top-tier goalie, the better. Saros and Ullmark are both great... but they're also only under control thru next season and will require big extensions. Markstrom is older but gives you TWO more seasons (at $1M more in AAV) and theoretically should cost less in a trade. Yes, his play dipped last season, but if you take a 3-year combined view, he's 5th in goals saved above expected by Evolving Hockey's model:

    image.thumb.png.55b1963c27934a1e8e825ff9c024b0b0.png

    And even in down year last season, he still graded positive in that metric (while being top-6 in 2021-22):

    image.thumb.png.93676e2265647b4e33dafd7571835fc1.png

  4. I'm almost certainly in the minority here... but I want Markstrom. The Devils need a goaltender and that's been obvious for many years. And with all due respect to Nico Daws, and how solid he's played of late, he's still outside the top 30 goalies by goals saved above expected in the past month (while Markstrom ranks 5th).

    Saros? No thanks. He hasn't been as good as Markstrom this season, he has less term and will require a massive extension after next season. Same with Ullmark, if you're into that idea.

    Craig Conroy is getting boxed in by the day, especially after these comments by Markstrom, and just sold Tanev for a very mediocre haul. I think Markstrom would be a great fit the next two seasons, saying nothing of whatever may be salvageable this season.

     

    • EvilHeart 1
  5. 26 minutes ago, John Wensink said:

    I just can't anymore. Most coach's decisions I can find some reason, even if I don't agree that makes sense. The Smith love baffles me. 

    He seems to find the opportune time to score, he's a good penalty killer and he's probably the only player on this roster who brings "grit/toughness" so I'm hardly surprised Lindy loves him...

    • Like 1
  6. Hughes-Smith is still an awful pairing; they weren't good vs SJ, it forces one of them to play offhand and their five-on-five results have been really brutal:

    Outscored 2-12 (14% goal share)
    38% expected goal share
    30% high-danger shot attempt share

    And... Miller on outside looking in again? Stop the madness.

    • Like 3
  7. 15 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    It's so early for both, but I think Luke's going to be more dynamic and a real "highlight" guy, while Nemec's going to be a terrific "ol reliable" all-arounder.  Love that both of them are here, growing pains and all.

     

    I agree, Luke has "flashier" tools and we don't always catch the small plays where Nemec is just so, so good.

    Dimitri also shared this mini-highlight reel of Nemec (he posted a 20-minute version too, if anyone's interested lol) but it shows how skilled Nemec is between offense, defense and in transition. There are a lot of "oh I'm glad I'm seeing this again b/c I didn't notice just how great of a play this was watching it live" moments.

     

    • Like 1
  8. 13 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    This is why I'm really hoping the next coach brings in a system that might be a little less "fun" to watch, but is far less chaotic, not to mention is able to be tweaked as needed, depending on how any given game is evolving, or who the opponent is.

    I think at this point even the players wouldn't mind a few less personal glamour numbers if they know that their coach is putting them in a position to win the majority of their games.  I think if asked off the record, I've gotta think more than a few of them have no idea what Lindy's vision even is anymore.  

    Also, for all the discussion around the "defensive zone tweaking" Lindy made on or around the All Star break, the Devils are actually giving up higher quality chances post-break (2.89 xGA/60) versus before (2.51 xGA/60). Their rate of actual goals against is lower, sure, but that's because they've gotten better goaltending. 

    • Like 2
  9. 4 games before the deadline: @ ANA, @ LA, vs FL, vs STL

    Have to think we need to win 3 out of those 4 otherwise it's sell mode with Toffoli, possibly Miller (I still prefer to resign), Smith... if Ilya Lyubushkin can return a 3rd round pick, I'm convinced anything is possible.

    • Like 3
  10. For the wild card hopefuls - Wings lose in regulation (but to the Isles who are now tied with the Devils with same amount of games left) and Lighting lose in OT.

    Really need the Kraken to do us a solid and knock off the Pens tonight (in regulation, hopefully).

  11. Teams who create and yield a lot of chances are fun… if you’re a neutral fan.
     

    As a fan of one of those teams, though? To quote the great Doc Emrick, it’s helter skelter out there.

    • Like 4
  12. The above is five-on-five production since Jan 1, but Nico has been productive ALL season: he has 2.78 points per hour at five-on-five this season. There are only 5 players (with least 600 minutes) with a better scoring rate:

    • McDavid
    • MacKinnon
    • Kucherov
    • Pettersson
    • Seguin 

    Oh, and that's all while Nico faces the toughest matchups among Devils' forwards... what a king. 

    • Like 4
  13. 1 hour ago, Nicomo said:

     

    I definitely can’t call him bAHL anymore if he keeps playing like this. 

    He's also 2nd among defensemen by expected goal differential rate so it's not puck luck. Bahl has legitimately been excellent over this stretch. 

    • Like 1
  14. 25 minutes ago, RizzMB30 said:

    https://www.nhl.com/news/calgary-flames-chris-tanev-traded-to-dallas-stars

    We are basically helping Calgary to retain salary on the Tanev to Dallas deal. We didn't really get much out of this. We got a 4th round pick in return for retaining 50% additional on top of what Calgary retained. 

    This makes me think another deal with Calgary is in the works still. It doesn't seem like the kind of deal that we would have gotten in on so to speak unless we were getting something else or working something else additional out. Something along the lines of "If you help us retain salary on this deal, we'll be more willing to make another smaller deal for Markstrom perhaps where we'll be okay retaining more salary". 

    This reeks of more to come. 

    We basically got a free future 4th round pick for the McLeod situation. It’s nothing special but when it’s virtually free, who cares. I’m sure Fitzy isn’t finished chatting with Calgary, too…

    • Like 4
  15. This isn't relevant to the NHL but I found this super cool of the PWHL:

    Not sure about the playoff structure of top seed choosing opponent but the draft order process ("gold plan") would be awesome in the NHL, in my opinion. Instead of, what, 20 fanbases with vested interest in March (dwindling to 16-18 in April), you'd grow that to... 24? 25? More? Of course there will be a handful or so of "not enough good for playoff chasing but not bad enough for top pick chasing" teams but... that's better than today? It would also throw an interesting curveball to the trade deadline. I'd embrace the chaos.

    • Like 3
  16. I've been on Bahl a lot but credit where it's due, he's been playing his best hockey the last few weeks. We know he's not going to contribute any offense but it was still neat to see him score on that absolute clapper last night. He's another young defenseman that's had to step into a bigger role (tougher minutes, more PK responsibility) due to the injuries.

    image.png.076671540b03c6f5dd486b5ddb5633d7.png

    • Like 4
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