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Posts posted by nmigliore

  1. Would be nice to see them pull out 7 wins (3 of 4 vs Pads, split 2 with LA, and 2 of 3 from Rockies) but that may be asking for a bit too much for a west coast trip. The Padres aren't Braves-bad (nobody really is), but they're still one of the worst teams in baseball. Hoping they can beat up on them allowing more room for error vs LA and Colorado.


    10 hours ago, '7' said:

    fwiw...would it kill anybody playing the Phillies or Nationals to try? At least a little bit? Or is there an MLB wide conspiracy to make sure the Mets don't win the NL East this year. Nobody playing Wash or Philly has a pulse.

    The Phils don't bother me at all. CR already covered it, but the underlying numbers don't support their record. They're playing more like an 11-16 team but instead sit at 16-11 thanks to fortunate timing of events. No team in baseball has outperformed their run differential as much as the Phils have so far. 

    There's definitely some decent young talent there, and their front office finally appears to be in the right hands after years of Rubin Amaro's nonsense, so maybe their long road back to relevance will be shorter than initially anticipated. But it's not going to be in 2016.

  3. 26 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    Re:  Wright...I would expect this version to be somewhere right around .800 in OB+SLG (maybe a bit below).

    Which would be fine; among MLB 3B with at least 400 PA last season, only nine had an OPS equal to or greater than .800 and only five did the year prior. 

  4. Re: Wright - Obviously the strikeouts will need to come down -- Wright has always been a high BABIP hitter, which makes his strikeouts more palatable than your average guy -- but he's not going to sustain his current rate of .391. I also have some doubts that he'll maintain a .200+ ISO. But for a month plus into the season, you have to be pleased with his overall numbers (his OPS sits in the top third of MLB at his position) especially given the preseason expectations. 

    The Nats have definitely gotten some breaks, re: their pitching. Their ERA-FIP differential is 2nd highest in MLB, meaning they've outperformed their FIP more than every team in baseball besides the Rangers. Their ERA-xFIP differential is even wider (by 1.32 runs). Strasburg has been fantastic but guys like Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark and Joe Ross -- who is rocking a 0.79 ERA despite a 5.56 K/9 -- are due for some regression.

  5. Just to highlight how bad the Braves have been - they've hit a total of 4 homeruns this season.... 4!! That's obviously the lowest total in baseball; the next lowest is the Marlins at 13, more than 3 times the Braves' amount of dingers. They have a team slash line of .224/.297/.282, which is like the equivalent of a lineup full of Brendan Ryans (or worse). Their team ERA is over 5 and ranks 4th worst in baseball. Yikes.

  6. I don't know about .500, but yeah, I think there is a clear gap between the Phillies and Braves (I didn't think there would be one, initially). JP Crawford, one of the top prospects in baseball, will come up at some point this year too and make Philly better. Odubel Herrera was a heck of a Rule V find for them.


    Very nice run for the Mets after the poor start. Harvey's average velocity has ticked up ever so slightly in each of his last two starts where he's whiffed 12 batters and walked just 2 over 11 innings. Not exactly facing much competition with the Braves and Reds -- who rank 30th and 28th in park/league-adjusted offense, respectively (and frankly, saying the Braves rank 30th isn't even doing justice to how HORRIBLE they've been at the plate) -- but I'll take any kind of silver linings I can out of Matt right now.

  7. I'm not so concerned about d'Arnaud's bat than his health. If he plays, I think he'll hit (he's played a whopping 13 games this season so I don't care what his numbers are right now). But the problem is if he has to miss extended time, the Mets are going to be ugly behind the plate. Plawecki is lucky to even be up here as a backup - forget it as a starter. Lucroy worries me a little bit, but I'd cautiously say they'd have to pursue him if d'Arnaud had to have something severe done, like shoulder surgery. But as it stands now, with little dings and some DL stints here and there, I'm afraid they'll have to hodge-podge their way with Plawecki and some no name like Rene Rivera.... which is why it would've been a good idea to add a better backup catcher in the offseason instead of forgetting about it until spring training.

  8. 19 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    Carlos Gomez's regular season numbers (59 GP) since becoming an Astro :  59 GP, .227/.266/.343 slash, .609 OB+SLG (.471 this season), 10 BB, 50 K.  Imagine if he had been this bad in a Met uniform...

    Yep, there was clearly something wrong there for the Mets to back off on that deal. Gomez has been nothing short of horrible since then.


    If that deal was consummated, the Mets almost certainly don't make the playoffs last season nor would have good odds this season. Speaking of which, Cespedes is out of the lineup again tonight - De Aza in CF. 

  9. re: Ynoa - even that FIP is deflated because he's given up no homeruns; that'll change soon given the environment and the fact he's not a big groundball pitcher. Gsellman is at a lower level obviously but the uptick in velocity (again, if sustainable and not just a 1-start fluke), strikeouts, and the groundball rate (nearly 70%) are all really positive signs.


    Rosario is another really young-for-his-league guy. The Mets pushed him aggressively going from Brooklyn in 2014 to high-A in 2015 at just 19 years old. That's usually the path of advanced college hitters drafted in the early rounds. I'm actually a bit surprised they didn't send him to AA to begin this season, but there was certainly no harm in sending him back to St. Lucie.

  10. 2 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    I know Cecchini was a first-round pick back in 2012, but I'm not sure how much of a prospect he really is.  Outside of AA last season, he hasn't really hit much at any other level, and has been an error machine at short. 

    I've personally never been a big fan either, but to be fair, he was ranked as our 3rd best prospect by MLB.com and 4th best by Baseball America and was quite good in AA last season as one of the youngest players in the league (and is now one of the youngest in the PCL). Despite the errors, the scouting reports make it appear as if he has enough defensive tools (good hands, above average arm) to stick at SS. The knock on him is, and has always been, that he lacks a "plus" tool and is more of a low-ceiling/high-floor prospect. I think he's more of a 2nd division starter type up the middle, but there's a good chance there is some kind of MLB player there.

  11. Didn't get to see much this weekend, but happy to see them take care of the Braves. If there is a team in the league you should be counting on sweeping, it would be them (and/or the Phillies).


    I haven't ready any followup after his first start, but Gsellman was showing more velocity, which could explain the (much-needed) uptick in strikeouts. I don't think he'll be long for AA at this pace. Not impressed with Ynoa in AAA so far. The roof is going to cave in there very soon.


    You can add Cecchini to the list of AAA prospects that isn't hitting at all, too.

  12. 16 hours ago, thecoffeecake said:

    Damn that Duda homerun still hasn't come down.

    Hearing Mets fans at the Bank is like hearing Rangers fans at the Rock. Like nails on a god damn chalkboard. Someone's gotta put a cage on that city to keep all these rats where they belong. They're all the same.

    Yeah, because I'm sure those New Yorkers decided to take a 2+ hour drive down the Turnpike on a Monday night in April to see the Mets face one of the worst teams in baseball. :lol:


  13. 1 hour ago, capo said:

    Is Thor the ace?

    I'd say he is right now...

    Well with deGrom not around and Harvey looking frighteningly not-good, there's really no debate. But like CR said, we should HOPE that becomes debatable as the season wears on, although even if deGrom and Harvey return to excellence it still may not be. Not sure there is a pitcher in MLB with better pure stuff than Thor. 

  14. Nice to see them take 2 of 3 on the road. Pitching matchups aren't exactly spectacular against the Phillies -- Noah tonight is exciting but Verrett vs Velasquez (who has looked incredible so far) and Colon vs Hellickson doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. I'd obviously be very happy with 2 of 3 again. 

    Hopefully the Nats can cool down a bit but they have 4 on the road against Miami and then 6 home games vs the Twins and Phillies. Miami might be decent this year but they're 3-7 out of the gate. 9 of the Nats' first 11 games played have come against the Braves and Phillies. I know the divisional games balance out in the end, but man, what a cakewalk of an opening schedule that allows them to get ahead of the pack in a hurry.

  15. Ugly outing by Matz, but going 10 days without a start must've had some factor. I also agree that people are being unfair by lumping him in with the Big 3. I like him, but there's bound to be growing pains. Not every elite arm comes up and dominates right out of the gate - we've been very spoiled with Harvey, deGrom, and Thor in recent years (and even Matz's first taste of MLB late last season and the playoffs).


    Ynoa is right there with Gsellman as one of the top pitching prospects in the system (which again says more about the system than it does either of those two). He'll be interesting to follow in Vegas - he throws lots of strikes with okay stuff but his strikeouts have been trending in the wrong direction with each level he moves up. I'm afraid his profile looks like the type that might get torched in the PCL but at least his first start went decently.


    Montero is apparently on the way up, per Rubin.

  16. Yeah, I remember saying after 2013 that Harvey's year may end up being his peak season, results-wise (2.27 ERA, 2.00 FIP). He was still terrific last season but not quite on 2013 level. deGrom really concerns me with the velocity. I know I'm beating a dead horse but this fastball velocity graph is a bit scary:


    I'm not buying it's the lat issue since that is a "new" thing and the down velocity was happening in ST, but we'll see. Assuming nothing is wrong with his arm, which is a big assumption, one silver lining is that deGrom was still really good in 2014 with sub-95 mph velocity.


    Completely agree on the status of the pitching prospects - it's a cycle; when you graduate so many arms and move some others, the system is going to end up hitting a valley. Gsellman may be the most intriguing arm in the minors at this point, although I'm not giving up on Montero yet either.

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