nmigliore

I actually like the chances of Houston bouncing back a bit - I'd probably flip-flop their projections with Jacksonville's. Fitzpatrick is probably slightly below average at best but that's still an improvement over what they had last season; Foster and Cushing be healthier; Hopkins is entering year 2 after a very promising rookie year (despite sh!t QB play); their schedule is easier and the division still sucks outside of the Colts (who aren't exactly world beaters themselves, especially if they let Luck keeping getting hit as often as he does). Not having a better QB than Fitzpatrick caps their upside for sure, but I wouldn't be surprised if they won 7 or 8 games. This is a bit random but Donald Brown was a really weird add for San Diego, wasn't he? I mean they're super deep at RB now, I guess, but they already had capable backs in Mathews and Woodhead while Brown probably picked the worse possible situation for himself after last year's breakout. Really weird match. Give me the Pats, Bengals, Colts, and Broncos to win their divisions; Chargers and Ravens to win wild cards.

Eh I don't buy St. Louis winning 9 and beating out SF in that division with Shaun Hill behind center, as dominant as their D-line looks (poor Carson Palmer). Not really sure what to think of Washington; I like Gruden and Jackson gives them a pretty formidable receiving corps... but I have no idea what RGIII is anymore. He could be elite or a hobbled shell of his former self and neither outcome would be a surprise. I'll take Philly, Green Bay, New Orleans, and Seattle to win the divisions, Chicago and San Fran to win wild cards.

Oh I'm sure he'll get one if Mejia misses time or struggles some more. I just don't think he'll be any better. I still like both of them and think they'll be very much a big part of our late-game bullpen going forward, if they can stay healthy, but I don't know if I see either being a great candidate to close given their platoon splits. All the more reason to hope Parnell comes back healthy sometime early next year.

Familia is not the answer to close, just check his enormous platoon splits. 2014 vs LHB: .313/.407/.436, 4.66 FIP, 5.46 xFIP Yikes. I'm sure that's not an easily correctable problem either, as he's strictly a fastball/slider guy; he doesn't throw a changeup or any other pitch that typically works vs opposite handed hitters. He's going to need to develop one to be a trusted closer in my eyes; he can handle a righty-lefty-righty situation but any team that stacks 3 lefties vs him in the 9th will just eat him apart.

Well that had to happen after Friday's escape job.

This is why it's so freaking frustrating to build around pitchers. Ugh. Hope it's nothing serious.

Lucas Duda, bitches. Familia getting a chance to close with Mejia needing to rest his calf.

Maybe the most encouraging thing in den Dekker's excellent numbers this year: he's striking out in 17% of his plate appearances. From 2012-2013 in AAA, he struck out in 26% of his plate appearances. That's a pretty substantial improvement. Makes me a little more optimistic that some of what he's doing in the PCL isn't totally about the friendly environmental factors. I mean yeah, he's probably still a 5th outfielder/AAA shuttle guy, but why not give him a look? He's killing it AAA with a hint of real improvement in weakest area. As a guy whose CF defense has been lauded since his college days, he and Lagares could catch a ton of flyballs between them in LF-CF. The alternatives suck.

Nice job by Mejia to cleanup what was mostly Eveland's mess, although he was very lucky Sizemore's hit didn't go out. The Stomp! 200 career wins for Bartolo Colon, if you're into that sort of thing. And Chris Young has been DFA'd, finally. den Dekker being recalled. TC says he'll play LF, Kirk will essentially be an extra outfielder now, EY Jr. plays vs some LHP.

Mets are about to blow what was once a 5-0 lead (5-1 going to the 9th).

Kudos to Sandy on this one: AdamRubinESPN: Wilmer Flores to now get good look at shortstop, Terry Collins says. Conferred with Sandy Alderson and made decision. re: Noah - wasn't good last night but yeah, no reason to be concerned. Underlying numbers are good, the environment is just brutal. They really should go to a 6-man until they can dump Colon.

Welp, hard to win when you can't score. Bullpen was going toss up zeros for only so long.

Mets pitchers just can't throw to bases, it's amazing.

I can't believe TC just pulled Lagares for Young defensively, especially in this situation.

But it's only been 4 starts since the break, and one of those was actually not that bad (8 IP, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K vs SF last Friday). Why should a few rough starts undo what he did (2.96 ERA, 2.6 K/BB) in his previous 17 starts this year? I can understand being down on Niese for his durability issues and/or declining velocity but seems weird to be ready to jump ship over a few bad starts.

Just thinking aloud here but crazy thing is I don't think the Mets are really that far off from fielding a pretty decent team next year. If they can find a couple league average or better players to put in LF and SS and add a couple of veteran bullpen pieces, that's a pretty great winter.

Yeah, that's what makes me lean to just dumping him. If we were the Red Sox or Dodgers, nobody is really batting an eye at owing Colon $11 million next year. We know that won't get in the way of them adding talent. But for a team like us, operating like a mid-market or smaller, that money could very well be the difference between getting something competent in LF or SS versus running out the same old crap.

I wonder if the Mets would dump Colon and his entire remaining salary for free if a team claimed him (like the Yanks did with Thornton yesterday). I don't know if I like that idea -- I have to believe Colon is worth something -- but if I was convinced that money would go directly to LF or SS next season, I think you have to do it. I don't even know if he'll be claimed in the first place. Should be interesting.

Wheeler isn't going to sustain that obviously but it doesn't mean he's due to have a bunch of ugly outings to "even things out", either: that's gambler's fallacy. For whatever it's worth, ZiPS rest of season thinks he'll post a 3.59 ERA while Steamer says 3.71. His overall ERA, FIP, and xFIP all hover around 3.50 on the season, so that seems pretty fair. But I'm not as interested in the actual results more than I am the underlying numbers the rest of the way (surprise surprise!); the walk issues aren't suddenly going to vanish but hopefully he keeps missing bats at a near-batter-per-inning pace with a groundball for about every 2 balls in play. I'll be very pleased with his progress this year and excited for what he can do next year if he can finish strong like that.

That's buoyed by a .357 BABIP, though. His core numbers (BB%, K%, ISO) are nearly identical to last season when hit .242/.281/.352, so it's hard to call any of that real improvement. Right now he looks like one of the 20 or 30 worst hitters in MLB, but that glove is just too superb to sit down. Ideally I'd like to have someone whose value isn't so skewed to one side of the spectrum but the Mets have far bigger fish to fry this winter (LF, SS to name a couple).

Best defensive CF in baseball. Hope he's alright though. Stood down awhile...

I would not let Wheeler face the top of the order for the 4th time, no matter the outcome here versus Souza. Please take him out after this, TC.

Ugh. Wright is having a rough year but he really can't get a break either; that's another bullsh!t call on him - he definitely did not swing. At least Duda bloops one in to bring that run home.

What a strange decision by Matt Williams to pull Gonzalez with Wheeler due up... he even had the lefty-on-lefty advantage, making it more difficult to bunt.

Some real Houdini act being pulled off by Zack tonight, but I'll take it.