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Everything posted by nmigliore

  1. Amazing that this team is just 1 game behind in the Wild Card race despite all the things that have gone wrong of late (or this season as a whole, frankly).
  2. re: DeGrom - I was definitely worried coming out of spring training with the down velocity but at this point he's pretty much proven it's a non-concern (at least performance wise), not to mention he's been throwing harder post-April. Sure, he may not be throwing as hard as he did a year ago, but his ERA and FIP are nearly in line with last season (his ERA is a little bit better relative to 2015 while his FIP is a little bit worse). Also, we tend to forget about 2014, when his velocity was about even with this season and he still posted a 2.69 ERA and 2.67 FIP in 140 innings. It was cool to see deGrom sitting 95+ throughout most of last season, but as evident to the results, the difference between 95 and 92 hasn't been essential to his success.
  3. Well at least Bastardo is gone. Niese's numbers this season are uglier than I thought but he is, in an unfortunate kind of way, a depth starter arm we needed to add.
  4. This trade, for me, would've been more palatable if that supposed Nimmo/Wottell/Flexen package was the deal. Even straight up Herrera isn't worth giving up for Bruce and I'm sure there's another piece involved from us. Argh.
  5. Rangers getting Lucroy with Joey Gallo as the centerpiece.
  6. Ugh, hate that Herrera was swapped in for Nimmo (or worse, packaged with him). Terrible.
  7. Sounds like the deal would be Bruce for Nimmo, Max Wottell, and Chris Flexen. Much easier to stomach if those are the latter 2 pieces.
  8. Well there's definitely something to "hiding" bad defenders when you have a pitching staff that strikes a lot of hitters out which the Mets certainly do (the staff ranks 5th in MLB in K% while the Reds sit at 28th). The Mets have also been okay at keeping the ball out of the air (21st in flyball rate). It's pretty obvious the Mets don't care about defense but it's still an odd fit in that he's yet another left-handed hitting corner outfielder. There has to be a point where defense and organizational fit have to mean something. I've never been high on Nimmo, but hopefully the other guys in the deal aren't Lindsay and/or Szapucki.
  9. At least there's a small chance this falls through. Probably Nimmo related, re: the medicals.
  10. re: Bruce's WAR - it's low this season because of the defense. Both UZR and DRS say he's been more than 1 full win below average (in simpler terms - with average defense in RF this year, his WAR would be about 1 win higher right now). We'll see who else is part of this deal but I don't like the fit at all. I mean really, what's the outfield configuration now? There's no combo of Bruce/Cespedes/Grandy that's going to look pretty out there; that's probably the worst defensive outfield in the Majors by a mile. I guess Bruce is insurance for when Cespedes walks this winter, but even then, I don't like this fit. For our sake, we better hope for 2 things: 1) Bruce's 2016 defensive metrics are a blip and he's more of an average or slightly below average defender, and 2) the bounceback at the plate is real. Bruce is a sub-replacement level player if he hits like he did in 2014 and 2015, regardless of where his defense goes.
  11. Itching to see if TDA is in the Mets' lineup now... If this Lucroy thing is real you would imagine (or hope) the Mets learned their lesson with the Flores fiasco last year...
  12. They have nothing left in the cupboard to move.
  13. Bruce's WAR is basically 0 (aka replacement level) over the last three seasons combined. In two of those seasons he sucked at hitting and in all three he's been a horrendous defender. The projection systems also aren't really buying the sudden bounceback at the plate - they forecast him to be only slightly above average at the plate ROS. The Mets can probably get that kind of offense (or better) out of Conforto with much better defense. I know folks may not believe much in the defense metrics, but really, the last thing this team needs is another plodding outfielder to slot in somewhere between Granderson and Cespedes.
  14. Marlins traded for Colin Rea and Andrew Cashner. There's a bit of upside with Cashner, and they needed the rotation help with Chen going to the DL, but by and large I can't see this moving the needle much for them. They gave up their 2nd best prospect (who also ranked #100 overall in Baseball America's midseason update) plus at least one player from their big league roster and maybe some additional parts. Seems like quite a steep price for two pitchers who have been close to replacement level this year.
  15. This lineup without Cespedes is downright frightening. The active Met with the next highest wRC+ is Wilmer Flores at 115 and there's maybe only 1 or 2 other players, besides Cespedes again, who are on pace to hit +2 WAR (which defines league average player).
  16. Familia was bound to blow one, especially with how frequently he's walked batters over the past couple of months. I'm not too worried since June-July only represents a 23 inning sample and Familia is still striking hitters out a high rate (26.7 K% since May) and has been elite with keeping the ball on the ground and in the yard (62.2 GB% and 0 HR allowed in 2016). The only problems I have with adding Lucroy are a) you're certainly giving up Rosario in any deal and b) the Mets' best hope for 2016 is very likely the wild card game, where they'll probably draw Clayton Kershaw or Jose Fernandez, and which they currently sit 1.5 GB. I'm also probably higher on d'Arnaud than most. This is what the projection systems see for d'Arnaud and Lucroy ROS: Lucroy ZiPS: 107 wRC+, +1.2 WAR d'Arnaud ZiPS: 99 wRC+, +0.6 WAR Lucroy Steamer: 103 wRC+, +1.2 WAR d'Arnaud Steamer: 105 wRC+, +0.8 WAR I'd take the over on those Lucroy projections frankly, but I'm still a believer in d'Arnaud. To me, the biggest selling point of Lucroy is that he's under contract for 2017, so if things go south this year, you can always gear up for next year or, if things go south in 2017 too, recoup some kind of value via a deadline trade or a qualifying offer. If the Mets were blessed with better health this year and were in the Nats' current position in the standings, I bet Sandy would be pretty aggressive in going after Lucroy.
  17. Yeah, this is pretty much a loss already in my book. Verrett actually has reverse platoon splits - righties have pounded him to a .265/.371/.523 slash line this year. The Cards, meanwhile, have the 3rd highest OPS vs RHP in baseball. It may get ugly tonight and it's hard to imagine the Mets keeping pacing against Wainwright, whose been great after a slow start.
  18. Considering our position, I'd look to upgrade the bullpen and find a better 5th starter - round out the rough edges as opposed to making a big splash. Although I will say in Lucroy's defense that he's under contract for 2017 as well, so he's not a rental. Kristie's article mentions Jeremy Jeffres and Will Smith of the Brewers but I like Tyler Thornburg a lot more. Relievers are going to cost a premium in this market and Thornburg is much less heralded name who may actually be better than either of the other two at this point. Verrett needs to go. I know he's been kind of okay at times, but he's walked 21 versus 26 strikeouts as a starter this year and is homer-prone. Jeremy Hellickson is a good fit but he's sadly one of the top arms publicly available and there's quite a few contenders looking into rotation help. The Mets may have to get a bit creative to find help, like checking in on some of the Rays' arms (sans Archer). The Yankees are also shopping Ivan Nova. He's certainly not going to excite anyone, but a switch to an easier home park and league may allow him to pitch like a league average starter. As a rental with an ERA in the mid-4's, I can't imagine he'd cost much.
  19. The rich get richer - Cubs acquired Chapman from the Yankees. Kristie Ackert of the NY Daily News says the Mets are interested in Jonathan Lucroy and a couple Brewers relievers. Sounds like the Mets would need to part with d'Arnaud and a top prospect, probably Amed Rosario, to stay in the conversations for Lucroy.
  20. Yeah, this is really a game the Mets need to win - deGrom against Nicolino is a massive mismatch in our favor. Flores homers again. Stay hot, Wilma. This is somewhat surprising to me, but entering today, Flores is hitting a cool .302/.355/.469 since June 1st.
  21. It'll be interesting to see Lucroy's suitors. The Red Sox might make the most sense of all contenders but they may choose to prioritize pitching since their rotation is a mess. I could see the Rangers having interest. Nice to see the Mets make a shocking run here after the National Disaster. Final 6 games before the break are still really big. The nostalgic side of me is giddy to see Reyes make his return. Will be interesting to see how they fit him in, especially with Flores on fire all of a sudden.
  22. I think Walker has been fine and he's literally on the same pace as last season. 2015: 603 PA, .269/.328/.427, 108 wRC+, +2.4 WAR 2016: 283 PA, .258/.322/.445, 108 wRC+, +1.2 WAR (which prorates to +2.4 WAR over 600 PA) The only exception is that almost all of his extra-basehits are homeruns, but the extreme lack of doubles has canceled out any positive effect from the bump in balls going over the fence. To put the doubles thing perspective - Walker has hit 6 doubles this season, which is the same amount James Loney has since coming to the Mets. It probably has something to do with the fact he's hitting 47.2% of his balls in play in the air versus 36.8% last season. But anyway, that change in approach aside, he's been solid. The fact Murphy has been Ruthian is what I think makes people have a poor taste in their mouths with Walker.
  23. Some brief thoughts. Reyes' Return: As I said last week, I didn't like the idea of bringing him back but at least they are making him move instead of forcing others to accommodate him. I'm not sure how Reyes will fare in the field, but Flores is a career below average hitter who offers zero baserunning and defensive value, so the bar isn't high to clear there. I think he'll be an upgrade. Upcoming Schedule: This is the Mets' schedule leading up to the All-Star break - 3 games @ Nationals, 4 games vs Cubs, 3 games vs Marlins, 4 games vs Nationals. 11 of those 14 games are at home, fortunately, but man, that's a brutal stretch. The Nats have been pretty bad of late and just DL'd Strasburg which has helped the Mets get within 3 games despite mediocre play on their own part, but the Mets are only a couple of win percentage points ahead of the Marlins, who own the 2nd wild card spot, while the Dodgers and Cardinals are right on their heels. I know I'm pointing out the obvious here, but this upcoming stretch is, like, kind of a big deal. The Mets may enter the All-Star break neck and neck with the Nats or find themselves a handful of games behind the 2nd wild card spot. Conforto's Demotion: Conforto was hitting .148/.217/.303 since May 1st and I think it was the right call to send him down. I'm not very high on Nimmo as you know, so I don't have great expectations there. Hopefully Conforto gains some confidence back in the PCL and is ready to come back within short order.
  24. Agreed. The defensive metrics seem to routinely hate him, but he easily passes the eye test of a good fielder. He's incredibly slick. sh!tty news about Thor... hopefully it's nothing serious or else this season is pretty easily over.
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