nmigliore

LUCAS DUDA BITCHES

Brutal game defensively for Murphy. I like the guy but there's a reason why he ranks last in DRS among 2B the last two years (and why it's not particularly close).

It's kind of funny how the starting pitcher trade market is shaping up. The Phillies are telling teams Hamels isn't available, the Padres want a ransom for Ian Kennedy, and the Rays keep winning which gives them less incentive to move Price... at this rate Colon is going to be one of the top, dare I say top, starting pitcher on the market. The says way more about the seller's market than Colon, but still... Crazy.

I would deal Thor and Nimmo and plenty more in a heartbeat. I just don't think Colorado entertains that unless they LOVE the Mets' arms and go with a package of need over a package of best players available. I'm not worried too about Tulo's injuries. Sure he misses more games than you'd like but he's so good that he could play 120-130 games a year and still be worth superstar value. 2010: 122 games, 27 HR, 140 wRC+, +5.9 WAR (#1 among SS, #16 in MLB) 2011: 143 games, 30 HR, 133 wRC+, +5.6 WAR (#2 among SS, #19 in MLB) 2013: 126 games, 25 HR, 142 wRC+, +5.5 WAR (#1 among SS, #17 in MLB) 2014: 91 games, 21 HR, 172 wRC+, +5.1 WAR (#1 among SS, #2 in MLB) 2012 was the one year where he missed significant time because he had groin surgery, but every other year he's been amazing. WAR is cumulative so injuries will negatively effect that value if you miss a lot of time; but with Tulo, he's been so amazing when he's on the field that he could literally miss 20-40 games a year and still be the best SS in baseball and a top 20 player in MLB. His contract is also a big bargain; he'd easily get over $200 million if he hit the open market this winter. His contract is only guaranteed through his age-35 season as well, and his salary drops from $20 million per from ages 30-34 to $14 million at 35 followed by a $15 million team option for age-36.

Tulo will cost the world -- he's one of the best players in baseball with a contract that pays him about half of what he'd get on the open market (and his deal remains team-friendly even at the back-end). I know executives/writers/fans like to say the Mets are a perfect match because of the pitching but that's an oversimplification; if the Rockies don't confine their market to pitching-only, they can and should do better than what we can offer. I'd be looking for an elite young hitting prospect/player in return as the main piece -- someone like Kris Bryant, Gregory Polanco, or Xander Bogaerts -- along with a bunch of other interesting stuff. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs recently compared his Tulo's trade value to that of Herschel Walker and ranked him inside the top 10 of trade value. CarGo is more realistic, though. He's nowhere in Tulo's league as a player, only has 3 years left on his deal, is having a down year (likely due to a growth he had in his finger), etc... He'd still cost quite a bit because of what he's done the last 2-4 years, but he's more realistic than Tulo, as much as I'd absolutely LOVE to somehow pry away Tulo.

Dice-K getting slammed.... yet another case of a magic pixie running out. Get him out of here already.

Gee's been running on pixie dust for over a year now. I think he's in for a rough 2nd half. At least Duda keeps cranking them! wRC+ is now up to 141... pretty incredible.

.....And now Flores IS coming up. I guess the safe bet is Tejada to the concussion DL, and if it is, they probably let him fly with a concussion too.

Yeah, I mentioned this last week but it's really easy to forget how young Flores is given the fact he's been in the system for what seems like ages. When Murphy was Flores' age, he was hitting .285/.338/.430 in high-A. Edit: LOL halt the breaks on the Flores call-up, jeez. And TC already said Campbell will play SS tomorrow.... the Mets realize there is such a thing as the 7-day concussion DL, right? Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN 1m More Ruben Tejada feels "pretty good," Terry Collins said. Doctors said no symptoms. Will travel with team. No call-up coming.

By the way, check out some of the names in the Mariners' lineup.... Endy Chavez, James Jones, Corey Hart (has been a disaster), Logan Morrison, Dustin Ackley, Jesus Sucre, Willie Bloomquist.... Cano and Seager are great, but goodness what an ugly lineup for a team that is currently occupying a playoff spot.

Mejia!!! Flores is coming up to replace Tejada. Presumably Tejada will go on the concussion DL.

That was a hell of a play by Campbell. Familia's growth has been a shocker for me; back in April I would've lost no sleep releasing to a a guy I actually have confidence in in a big spot. That mid-90's sinker and upper-80's slider combo is filthy.

Couldn't agree more with Keith. I'd bring him up when they (hopefully) dump Colon.

Yeah, that was some catch. I'm not sure any other CF in baseball tracks down that ball. He hasn't hit much since returning from the DL but the glove makes him a must-start everyday. Anything he gives you with the bat is just gravy (and his overall numbers this season are actually pretty decent (104 OPS+), although very BABIP-inflated).

deGrom has been sensational again tonight. This is a bit arbitrary but his stat line since that rough start in St. Louis last month (includes tonight): 39.2 IP, 11 BB, 45 K, 1.59 ERA. Overall on the season, he's given up more than 3 runs just twice (6 in the aforementioned St. Louis game and 4 in Chicago on June 5th). And another nifty nugget, this one from Grantland/ESPN (why hello Collin McHugh!): Lucas Duda just hit one to Tacoma, by the way. Wow what a shot.

Dilson Herrera chuggin' along: 3-for-4 with a homer and a triple tonight. Syndergaard pitched 6.1 innings and gave up 0 runs with 3 BB, 5 K. Nice to see.

That's what I was referring to when I said "the peripherals are at least average." Once you adjust for the park and league, his FIP and xFIP are basically league average on the dot. No, ERA+ doesn't trump them, but when we're talking about trade value, actual results are still very meaningful. Brandon McCarthy had pretty good peripherals (3.69 FIP, 2.92 xFIP) but horrible results (5.01 ERA) and was dealt for Vidal freakin' Nuno, and the D-Backs even ate half of his remaining 2014 salary in that deal. I'm not saying that's an apples to apples comparison, but you get the idea. Obviously Cashman saw a good buy-low opportunity with McCarthy, so it's not like buyers are going to ignore Colon's FIP/xFIP... but from a trade leverage standpoint, it's going to be damn near impossible for Sandy to ask for much, and Colon's age/weight/remaining contract won't help either.

Colon is rocking an 85 ERA+ and owed $11 million next year. Sandy couldn't hit a double in trading in Colon if he tried, let alone a homerun. The peripherals are at least average, but I get the feeling the Mets will end up dealing him in August for crap while eating a small sum.

Of course they lose that way. Of course.

Haha she is, but I didn't mean it that way.....

That ball girl down the RF line.... damn.

THE CAPTAIN BABY

MURPH

Haven't seen the game, figures a guy with nearly as many walks as strikeouts this season is no-hitting them. Oh well, at least Wheeler was apparently quite good based on his stat line. Mediocre return to AAA for Montero: 4 innings (was presumably on a pitch count), 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K. Plawecki has been curiously absent for a few days.

I doubt it, re: Herrera/SS - reports say he doesn't have the arm strength to play on the left side. Of course I would never put anything past the Mets considering the Flores experiment.