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Everything posted by nmigliore

  1. Besides the annoying environmental factors that skew the numbers it's also awful if you follow minor league boxes like I do every night. I can pretty much never follow a full game since Vegas routinely starts at 10pm ET for night games. I used to be an annual subscriber for MiLB.tv but the timezone difference and horrible camera angle Vegas uses made it useless. It must also be a pain for a team on the east coast as it's far less convenient to bring up players from AAA on short notice. It's really unfortunate Buffalo didn't work out, that was really a great spot for everything. I'll just settle for getting back into the International League at this point.
  2. Yeah, I really think he'd be better off learning in the MLB rotation than he would Vegas. The K% and BB% are both good indicators that his struggles are largely not his doing. The PCL is just an awful, awful place; I can't wait until the Mets get out of there.
  3. Syndergaard getting hit hard tonight. 6 hits and 5 earned runs in just 2 innings so far. Argh.
  4. 4 Mets make Keith Law's midseason top 50: 16. Noah Syndergaard 32. Michael Conforto 34. Brandon Nimmo 49. Dominic Smith
  5. I don't mind being "buyers", as long as it's in the sense that we're acquiring talent for 2015 and beyond. I also don't think they'll move Murphy anyway, so I don't know if being 4-5 back versus 8-10 back will end up making a significant difference, honestly. Colon is probably the one guy I could see getting dealt either way. He won't get traded but I'd be curious to see what teams think of Dillon Gee. His results over the past calendar year have been nothing short of spectacular (2.55 ERA) but the fielder-independent numbers are nowhere close to that (3.95 FIP, 4.25 xFIP) as his strikeout rate keeps plummeting. Those peripherals are also not very good for a pitcher who pitches in the NL and in a pitcher's park. It's probably not fair to chalk up that entire differential to luck, as Gee has suppressed BABIP some for his career (.279), but that kind of gap is still really staggering. No other starting pitcher with at least 150 innings over the past calendar year has a bigger differential between their ERA and FIP than Gee, and that kind of differential is basically unsustainable over a longer period of time. Teams would probably be turned off by the injury history, and it's not like those fielder-independent numbers are only accessible to us, but I'd be curious to see what teams would offer up for him.
  6. You may very well be right on Flores, but it's easy to forget he's still just 22 despite being in the system for what seems like a century. Daniel Murphy, in his age-22 season, was hitting .285/.338/.430 in high-A St. Lucie, for some perspective. But yeah, I agree with the perfect storm comment, and that's kind of what I was alluding to above in that it's a good time to sell high with a surprising amount of contenders or quasi-contenders in need of 2B help and Murphy enjoying a career-year. If they don't move Murphy by the deadline, though, they may as well begin working out an extension. If they can't get what they're looking for now, they probably won't ever.
  7. CR, Murphy is actually a sneaky-good baserunner. He's not a great basestealer by any means (although he was last season) but he's pretty good at taking the extra-base per the metrics. Since 2013, he's 9th among qualified hitters in Baserunning Runs (BsR), which calculates runs above average via baserunning -- such as advancing 1st to 3rd on a base hit, etc. -- and stealing bases. He doesn't look the part, I know, and he tends to have his "Murph' Moments" on the bases, but he's actually not bad out there. Tom Goodwin probably deserves some credit here too, though. I'm not scared of paying Murphy that kind of money. That's basically league average player money these days and I think Murphy, while not as good as he's been this season, is at least an average player going forward. Further, if the Mets are going to be tanked by a player making $12-13M per, then we're in even worse financial shape than we already think. To me the attraction of moving Murphy is more involved with selling high in hopes of suckering a desperate contender in need of a 2B (hello, Baltimore and Oakland) and liking the in-house alternatives a little more than most (Flores, Reynolds, Herrera in the not-too-distant future, hopefully) -- I think you can get like 70% of Murphy's production for like ~5% of the cost from one of those guys, for instance. But if news broke that the Mets extended Murphy for that price, I wouldn't at all be disappointed. If I had to pick a path I'd probably trade him, but I can really go either way.
  8. For what it's worth, and I think I posted this last week, ESPN's Keith Law thinks Herrera will be a starting 2B and "a good one." Josh Norris of Baseball America ranked him as the 57th best prospect in baseball on his personal list. If the Mets do decide to trade Murphy, Flores is also a good bridge to Herrera. I know he hasn't hit at all in the Majors, but he's slashing .326/.368/.588 in AAA this season and .322/.360/.548 overall in AAA. Yeah I know, Vegas/PCL factor, but I feel like there's gotta be something there. The more I think about it, and I like Murph, the more I think I'd take my chances on one of Flores/Herrera panning out rather than paying Murphy 8 figures into his decline phase. Murphy's trade value probably won't ever be as high as it is now, and there are plenty of contenders out there who could use a 2B (Jays, Orioles, A's, Reds without Phillips, etc.)
  9. Allan Dykstra won the AAA HR Derby last night. Good for him. Dilson Herrera keeps hitting. He was 1-for-3 with a homer and a walk Sunday, went 1-for-4 with a walk last night, and is hitting .326/.398/.495 in 95 AB in AA. For me the most encouraging part of Herrera's numbers has been his walk rate, which sits at 11.1% in AA (versus 5.8% in high-A and 8% in low-A last season). And he's doing that as the youngest hitter in the league. Nimmo's adjustment to AA has gone slower but he's still drawing a ton of walks, his strikeout rate hasn't moved much, and he's already hit 4 homers in 89 AB (versus 4 in 227 AB in high-A). Some positive regression in BABIP will give his slash line a good boost.
  10. Good: Marc Carig ‏@MarcCarig 2m More TC acknowledged deGrom has pitched so well that he can’t come out of rotation, one day after hinting at bullpen. So, Dice-K likely in pen.
  11. If anyone wants to see Kevin Plawecki he's catching and batting 9th for USA in the Futures Game. It starts now on MLB Network. Syndergaard is also on the US team.
  12. Sweep! deGrom has been nothing short of spectacular.
  13. Sounds like deGrom could seem some time in relief after the All-Star break to conserve his innings: Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN 14m More Terry Collins said it will be discussed whether Jacob deGrom can use a brief respite from rotation out of break to conserve innings. I understand this might have to happen at some point, but I don't like doing it now. If the Mets were in a good playoff position, that's one thing, because then I'd want deGrom available in September/October (just ask the Nats how they felt not having Strasburg in 2012 because they didn't give him respites during the year). But they're not going to the playoffs. Yeah, they're playing great right now, and this is probably as excited and fun I've been to watch this team play all year -- so much so that I'm actually going again tomorrow, my 2nd game in as many weeks (deGrom pitching helps, as does the 2 for $28 ticket deal ). But as much as we want to believe, a playoff run isn't going to happen. With that in mind, it make a lot more sense to just leave deGrom alone and then put him in the bullpen or shut him down later in the year, if even necessary. Unfortunately this might happen just because they don't want to take Dice-K out of the rotation yet, even though his success has largely been a mirage (3.55 ERA, 4.57 xFIP). If Niese does actually come back off the DL after the break, they'd have to bump someone out. It should be Dice-K, but they can choose to go the deGrom route and play the conserve innings card. I really, really hope they don't.
  14. Tremendous play by Nieuwenhuis in the corner to trap the ball as he was sliding and then hop up and fire to the cut-off man. That run scores easily if he doesn't make that play. Great play Zack right after!
  15. Yeah, I think so. Scary part is that, health willing, he could be Hall of Fame worthy before he reaches his 30th birthday.
  16. 22 Jaw-Dropping Factoids about Kershaw's Scoreless Streak by Jonah Keri. Some crazy stuff in here, my favorite might be this: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/clayton-kershaw-scorless-innings-streak-historic-2014-season/
  17. Discussion involving Lagares on NYFS got me thinking about Carlos Gomez.... His 2014: 14 HR, .871 OPS (10th among qualified OF), +4 WAR in just 84 games this season. He's 3rd overall in position player WAR dating back to last season. CR, please tell me you are now a believer.
  18. I just think they're desperate enough to take a plunge on him and hope he regresses to his DIPS. They literally just did that with the McCarthy, who has the 7th worst ERA and 15th worse HR/9 rate among qualified starters this season but a significantly better FIP and xFIP. And Colon hasn't been nearly as bad McCarthy results-wise. I'd certainly want more than a Vidal Nuno in return, though. Jim Bowden suggested the teams are a match yesterday (before the Tanaka news broke) and threw out names like Aaron Judge, Peter O'Brien, Greg Bird, or Dante Bichette Jr.. Judge isn't happening, but one of the other three names doesn't seem unrealistic. They basically all profile best as 1B, which limits their prospect value. O'Brien has massive power but doesn't walk much and is on the older side. Bird has been more okay than good in the FSL after a big year in the SAL. Bichette Jr. has decent numbers for his age in the FSL but might have to move to 1B and didn't even make the Yankees' top 30 (Baseball America) before the 2013 season. Mason Williams was once considered one of the top prospects in the game but he's been awful the last two years. He's still just 22 though and could be suffering from a lot of bad luck this year (.235 BABIP). He might be nothing at this point too, but the upside could be worth taking a flier on. BA still ranked him as the #3 Yankee prospect pre-2013.
  19. Tanaka has a torn UCL and we usually know where that ends up. Just another sad reminder of the enormous risk in pitchers, which is very relevant in our case given the crop of arms coming through the system and perhaps the hesitation -- both from fans and the front office -- in moving them for an established hitter. Only takes one pitch for everything to be flipped upside down. Yanks have to be floundering with their rotation. Colon has success pitching in new Yankee Stadium (2011) and familiarity with the manager and GM who originally took a flier on him. I know Met-Yankee trades are rare, but I wonder if there could be a match there. I can't imagine Colon having much value as a 41 year old with a below average ERA and another year on his deal, but his core numbers (K%, BB%, GB%) are all in line with last season and portend to a pitcher who should be around league average, and we know Cashman is aware of that kind of stuff given his acquisition of McCarthy this weekend. I personally don't think his contract is as big of a burden as people think -- $10 million is perfectly fine for a league average hurler -- but there could be an overflow of starters here before we even talk about Syndergaard debuting or Harvey returning, so saving that cash and redistributing it to a more pressing need (whether at the deadline or next winter), while grabbing a mid-tier prospect in the trade, would be pretty sufficient.
  20. Keeping up with the prospect theme, Keith Law with very positive commentary on Dilson Herrera from his chat today:
  21. There was never any doubt he would sign, but the Mets finally signed their 1st round pick Michael Conforto to a slot deal, pending a physical. Glad to get him in the system, he's likely going to Brooklyn for the summer. As an advanced college bat, he should move rather quickly. Some believe he can jump straight to AA. Honestly this was probably my favorite 1st round pick of the Alderson era. He was considered the best hitter in the draft by Baseball America. Here's what they wrote about him in their draft capsule: Some more quotes from other draft gurus:
  22. Mets win! 3 in a row from the Braves! Let's get the damn sweep tomorrow with big Bartolo on the mound!
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