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Everything posted by nmigliore

  1. I still prefer Markstrom most among the goalie targets; I know he's the oldest but if the difference is building a package around Holtz + for Markstrom versus Mercer + for Saros (or Ullmark), I'm taking the former. I know Mercer isn't having a great year, and he's not a possession driver, but since he entered the league in 2021 he ranks 2nd in five-on-five primary points (goals + primary assists) among forwards age-22 or younger (Jack is 1st, shocker). Markstrom also comes with a solid contract (2 more seasons at $6M AAV) whereas the other two only have 1 more season of control ($5M AAV apiece) and will require massive extensions that could become killers once the typical goalie voodoo happens.
  2. Relative to the Devils' bottom-6, I do think McLeod was a notable loss. The Devils outscored teams 35-22 (61% goal share) with him on the ice at five-on-five this season and were above water by expected goals, too (55%). Compare that to some of these handful of forwards who are getting bottom-6 ice time: Mercer: 41% goals share, 49% expected goals Holtz: 49% goals, 47% expected goals Bastian: 38% goals, 48% expected goals Tierney: 48% goals, 48% expected goals Nosek: 18% goals, 39% expected goals That's to say nothing of his faceoff ability (best win rate on the team at 65%) or score points (only Holtz from the above group beats him on a per-60 minute basis).
  3. Devils only have 17 games left with basically-dead playoff odds (2% per The Athletic's model) - they should just keep Siegs out and get an extended look at Hatakka from here on out. Doesn't make any sense to have Siegs suit up anymore this season, especially after taking that concussion.
  4. I'm completely out on those two, to be honest - that would be a massive failure by Fitz, IMO. Playing behind a bad team can be reasonably accounted for (not saying it's perfect) by compared actual goals against vs expected goals against. Over the last 3 seasons combined, Merzlikins has the 2nd worst differential among all goalies (-27 goals allowed vs expected). And then there is that contract ($5.4M AAV thru 2026-27)... woof. Gibson has been better (-1) over that same stretch but a) I'm not sure he'd be much better than Jake Allen and, b) his contract is also horrendous ($6.4M AAV thru 2026-27). Barring another top goalie suddenly becoming available, I think you need to walk away with one of Saros, Ullmark or Markstrom.
  5. Here were the most relevant comments on the goalie situation; also, not included but notable - supposedly the Devils tried for Allen earlier in the season but since they were on his NTC, they were told no.
  6. Based on Fitz's presser, absolutely not. He held nothing back to say the VV trade was not about Kakko all while he praising Allen, his veteran/locker room presence and confirmed he plans for him to be here next season. I almost wonder if they took Kakko back in that deal just to have a non-Daws/Schmid goalie to start while Allen clears up his visa situation.
  7. I'm listening to Fitz's presser - he basically said they'll big game-hunting for a goalie in the summer. No surprise there given the goalie moves today but still nice to hear him basically confirm it.
  8. Fitz is literally acquiring goalies he should've acquired weeks ago LOL. But just moving Vanecek's contract is a win here. Let's await the full details...
  9. Siegs has been hard to watch this season but I'm willing to give him somewhat of a pass without Dougie around; think you'd be selling too low on him right now.
  10. More late-reported protection around that 3rd possibly becoming a 2nd:
  11. Devils gave up a 5th for Miller last summer... a 4th would sound reasonable here.
  12. This is pretty much how I see it (or buyout VV if you can't trade him, but either way he can't come back).
  13. Allen has basically hung around average/neutral by goals saved above expected the last three years; his raw numbers definitely look worse than they probably should thanks to Montreal's defense. At 50% retained, this seems okay if incredibly dull BUT he 100% cannot preclude you from acquiring a true #1 in the summer. Honestly, it's more annoying the Devils didn't make this move weeks or even months ago. Just like firing Lindy when did they did, it's reeks of too little too late.
  14. 50% retained on Toffoli, woof... yeah, this trade like slowly went from being OK (w/ MTL 2nd rd pick) to meh (not the MTL 2nd rd pick) to bleh (50% retained!).
  15. Yep - even if Fitz's mind is already made up, at least give him showcase time ahead of becoming summer trade bait.
  16. I think you had to either extend him or trade him and it sounded like they were well off on term; if the Devils had real playoff odds, you'd have more leverage to hold out for a 1st (or just keep him for a playoff push). It also doesn't help that Guentzel couldn't even bring back a guaranteed 1st. It's a bit disappointing the 2nd rounder isn't the Montreal one but meh. I don't love or even like the deal but I don't hate it either.
  17. Honestly a 2nd and 3rd doesn't surprise given the returns on other wingers, at least the 2nd is reportedly Montreal's which is basically a "late-late" 1st anyway. Either way, more assets rightfully acquired for a rental to use on a goalie trade now or in the summer.
  18. Dreger says draft picks return... Worth nothing WPG doesn't have a 1st this year but do have MTL's 2nd.
  19. Eberle just resigned 2x$4.75M with Seattle so that takes one winger off the market.
  20. Here we go, folks... grab your popcorn.
  21. Caps got a 3rd and 5th for Joel Edmundson lol.
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