nmigliore

Wennberg to the Rags... So to sum up the UFA FW trades the last 24 hours (sorted by player PTS this season): Henrique (NTC, 75% retained), 60 GP, 18 G, 24 A, 42 PTS = 1st and 5th (conditional) picks Tarasenko (NTC, 50% retained), 57 GP, 17 G, 24 A, 41 PTS = 3rd and 4th (conditional) picks Mantha (50% retained), 56 GP, 20 G, 14 A, 34 PTS = 2nd and 4th picks Wennberg (NTC, 50% retained), 60 GP, 9 G, 16 A, 25 PTS = 2nd and 4th (conditional) picks For comparison, Toffoli: 61 GP, 26 G, 18 A, 44 PTS Since he has no movement/trade clause, I would imagine he should bring a 1st round pick + if the Devils retained any salary. (Sidenote: yes, I know I'm not including all picks/players involved, just trying to keep it simple).

It only takes 1 team to get a hard on for someone who brings the narrative BS (veteran presence, physicality, etc.), just look at what the Ducks retrieved for Lyubushkin who has arguably been the worst defenseman in the NHL this season.

Yeah, I didn't know about the NTC until afterward so that's fair. I think with Toffoli you could be looking at a 1st straight up or maybe a 2nd + 3rd? Let's see what Guentzel gets moved for, seems he'll go moved first. I'd actually like that to happen ASAP so Fitz has a couple days to mull offers on what would be the best available winger before the clock runs out.

Seriously, that would be so disgusting to see. Friedman now reporting the Flyers are working on Sean Walker to the Avs... things are heating up today, wow.

Welp? Welp.

Tarasenko traded to FL for two draft picks, per Kevin Weekes. Curious to see the return (I see some citing mid-round picks?) since he feels like a fair comp for Toffoli - rental wingers with similar cap hits, age and points this season, granted Toffoli is nowhere near the liability Tarasenko is defensively. Worth noting Mantha (with 50% retention) went for a 2nd and 4th last night, too. Less PPG and recent track record compared to Tarasenko and Toffoli but better off-puck impacts.

Agreed, if you wanted a stopgap rental (I've previously suggested Kahkonen), you're like 2 weeks late. The Devils' playoff odds are now below 10%. James Nichols also wrote about Jason Zucker (??), which would be even more stupefying.

Pretty much the same ol' story last night where the Devils can't get acceptable goaltending. That goal that put FL up 3-2, right after the Devils tied it, felt like such a backbreaker. Also funny how 4 of the 6 dressed defensemen got completely crushed last night while Nemec is sitting in the press box... curious what "accountability" will be held ahead of Thursday's game.

I didn't see it until afterward but he cited skating (??), hence my video comment above. Meanwhile... Luke is 1st among all NHL defensemen in giveaways since Feb 1 (plus ugly defensive metrics behind it) lol.

That's why I think he pretty much has to have a deal already lined up and ready to go. If you're not planning to trade Holtz within the next 3 days, saying what he said and doing what they're doing (4th line), even under a new coach, is moronic. Even if he's sour on Holtz, you still should be giving him top-9 minutes or better to boost his value before the summer and not making comments that single him out like that.

I get the "let's send a message" type of thing but yeah you could've sat Luke who has been pretty bad the last few weeks, or one of the underperforming vets like Siegenathaler or Marino. It accomplishes your "flag stamp" but at least does it with a player who *actually* warrants sitting for a game or three.

Yeah I mean either way I don't see Green sticking beyond the remainder of this season, barring some crazy Dan Bylsma-like run (and with these lineup decisions, don't count on that). I just wish I could hem and haw these last 20 games about stupid edge-the-lineup moves (like dressing Smith, MacDermid, Tierney, etc.) instead of sitting a kid whose probably your best defensemen on the active roster. That one strikes a nerve for me. Also, citing "a lot has to do with his skating" is hilarious. Someone needs to send this film to Green ASAP (and probably fire whoever is responsible for video/film currently):

Just listening to Green's presser. He confirmed Nemec is sitting tonight, citing his play has "dipped the last 3 weeks." Here are Nemec's on-ice impacts since 2/12: - 75% goal share at 5v5 (#1 among Devils' defensemen in that period) - 62% expected goal share at 5v5 (#2 among Devils' defensemen in that period)

One thing I'll say about Holtz - I think he's certainly gone and I'd bet as soon as this Friday. It was weird/surprising to hear Fitz to speak so bluntly about him, yet cite the "human element" when discussing the goalie situation earlier. Hmm. He's also still clearly on the 4th line, even Chris freakin' Tierney is ahead of him. At this point it feels like he's a goner by Friday, in a Markstrom deal, and thus there isn't much to be gained by trying to boost his value by giving him top-6 or top-9 minutes.

Going to be hard going 16-5 or better when out of the gate you're planning to sit one of your best defenseman and give Chris Tierney 3rd line minutes.

If you're talking accountability, I could probably name like 7 or 8 guys in that lineup who should sit for a game or two. 😕

Okay folks, I just saw the lines. Can we get the "bring back Lindy" chant going? Kidding, but my goodness....

Don't like this. Makes way more sense to sit Luke, whose play has dipped the last few weeks, especially defensively.

The Devils fired rightfully Lindy but lest we forget they, uh, still need a goalie and help elsewhere. Pressure will now turn to Fitz. The (easy) coach scapegoating card is now out of your hand, sir.

Perusing NJDevs.com and realizing, okay yeah, we gotta do it.

I mean, let's be honest - this was almost TOO obvious to happen after this weekend. The season is highly unlikely to be salvageable but you still needed to do this. Let Travis Green run it thru and then find a real coach in the summer.

Goalies are very difficult to analyze so I could totally believe Ullmark's success is at least partially driven by Boston's system. Ullmark's cumulative goals saved above expected numbers are massively different when comparing his Boston vs Buffalo days: w/ Boston: 121 GP, .923 SV%, +48 goals saved above expected w/ Buffalo: 117 GP, .912 SV%, -29 goals saved above expected Since 2020-21, the Devils have the 2nd worst team SV% (Boston is best, by the way)... is it really ALL on the goalies? I don't think it's unfair to argue the Bruins' system makes goalies look better than they are while the Devils' system does the opposite.

I can't disagree there, I'm a firm believer that goalies are voodoo and nobody should be surprised if one outperforms the other next season, especially with an environment/team change. I do think all three are GOOD goalies and you'll just have to accept whatever variance throws at you. It really comes down to cost which is where I assume Markstrom wins here based on age. Or maybe I'm completely wrong... only Fitz truly knows the assets being asked for these guys. But I do believe if you're getting Saros or Ullmark, you're pretty much all-in next season and/or taking a big cap hit the following seasons via an extension. At least with Markstrom you could argue that you're getting a two season all-in window without being forced to commit to a big dollar extension (let's say $7M to 8M+ AAV) for future years. Goalies are just a pain in the ass.

Ullmark and Saros are very similar - they have identical remaining cap hits ($5M AAV thru 2024-25) and will require big extensions after next season. Over the last 3 seasons Ullmark has been better on a per-minute basis, plus won a Vezina last year, but Saros is a couple years younger and has played nearly 40 more games in that timeframe. I'd simply take whichever comes cheaper in a trade, although I think Ullmark is probably better. It's also harder to see Nashville moving Saros right now since they're flaming hot (8 wins in a row) and sit 7 points up on Calgary and St. Louis for a playoff spot. But I do like Markstrom more than either; he's obviously the oldest but has been better than both this season, comes with an extra year of control at a similar cap hit ($6M AAV thru 2025-26) and would cost the least in a trade.

LeBrun notes on Markstrom and a new connection to Ullmark: https://theathletic.com/5315758/2024/03/04/nhl-trade-rumblings-buchnevich-markstrom-ullmark/?source=emp_shared_article