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nmigliore

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Posts posted by nmigliore

  1. Man, for a moment I completely forgot Jason Vargas was once a Met - traded to us by the Fish as part of that ill-fated Matt Lindstrom deal in the winter of 2006. Vargas largely spent 2007 in AAA but did make 2 starts for the Mets in 2007, one of them being one of my favorite Mets Classics: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN200705170.shtml. A couple winters later, he was part of that wild 3 team trade that netted the Mets JJ Putz, Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed.

    This wreaks of Omar's involvement, heh.

  2. I've said it before but I think the Mets really need someone to bridge the gap between deGrom and Thor to the highly questionable trio of Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler. I think it would be a mistake to enter the season banking on the questionables to stay healthy AND perform. I do like Lugo as a 6th starter option (and you could probably argue he belongs in the rotation right now) but the Mets need more depth than that. 

  3. I was just looking at some of the numbers of Cobb, Lynn, and Garcia over the past few seasons and was a bit surprised to see Garcia has arguably been the superior starter of the trio, at least by the underlying numbers:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=2520,6562,8137

    Garcia has also thrown the most innings between the three in that timeframe, which should count for something, and has the best 2018 WAR projection by Steamer. Lynn and Cobb come with more upside I think - Lynn has really outperformed his peripherals in that 2015-2017 snapshot thanks to an elite strand rate - while Garcia is the most "boring" but probably the most reliable.

  4. I pushed for Frazier earlier in the offseason so I'm pretty satisfied with this signing, especially at the ridiculously-discounted price. He's not going to turn this team into a legit contender himself, but he does make the team better and knocks Jose Reyes down the infield pecking order, which can only be a good thing. 

    We definitely need to add a starter, so I'm glad that seems to be getting some kind of attention. Will they afford Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb? I don't know. I would normally say no but with this free agent market in such a whacked out mode, you never know. If they settle for dirt cheap, Jamie Garcia probably makes the most sense and I wouldn't hate it.

    Not sure if I've been here for the Gonzalez signing but total YUCK. I'm not a Smith fan but 1000 out of 1000 I'll roll with him over a washed up guy like Gonzalez who was also a clubhouse nuisance with the Dodgers last year. I find it laughable the Gonzalez-mentoring-Smith columns laughable... this is the same guy who cried over losing his job to Cody Bellinger last summer. He's here to play as a starter and nothing else.

     

  5. I'm probably the lowest on Smith but if your answer is going to be Duda, why bother? The range of outcomes between Duda versus Smith will likely be negligible. You're not signing Duda and banking on a 2- or 3-win upgrade to the roster, which is what the Mets need. Also, the Mets kind of have insurance for Smith with Bruce anyway, and in that scenario, their outfield defense would be much sharper by pushing Conforto rightfully to a corner and inserting Lagares in CF. 

    As much as I would've liked to see the Mets upgrade 1B and maybe use Smith as a trade piece, I don't think the answer is out there. I really liked Carlos Santana but he's off the market now. Eric Hosmer is one of the most overrated players in baseball and he's going to get wildly overpaid. Logan Morrison was pretty good last season but how much of that was real after being terrible for years? After those two uninspiring guys, it gets even uglier. 

  6. I'm kind of okay with the Mets going with d'Arnaud and Plawecki next year. I think they can squeeze enough out of both guys to get average production, maybe better if you're optimistic. If they had the cash to do it, Lucroy would be an interesting guy to look at on a 1-year pillow deal, but they have more pressing needs to address first IMO.

  7. I just don’t understand this love affair the Mets have for Bruce. He fits bet in the AL where he can split the between DH and OF, not in the NL. An outfield of Cespedes-Conforto-Bruce might hit well but man the outfield defense might be really ugly. The Mets needed a true CF and/or a true 1B. Bruce isn’t either of these things and neither is Conforto as a CF.

     

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  8. Yep it's hard to argue with that, re: the draft.

    Conforto looks like he can be a star if he can stay healthy, but then again he was taken 10th overall. Fulmer was a great pick for 44th overall, I'll give them that, but Detroit's reaping those benefits now. But besides that... it's been pretty miserable. Seth Lugo was a nice find relative to his round but his upside is probably no higher than a league average starter. Nimmo looks like he can be a contributor in some capacity but he was a high pick (13th overall) and the upside is pretty limited there.

     

  9. 30 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    Didn't know that about the pop-ups...oh man, that is going to lead to a lot of frustrating ABs I'm sure. 

    I guess it would be nice if for just once the Mets could quit shopping in the "Lots of flaws, but he does have some good qualities" isle.  I'm just tired of having to look for silver linings...for once, it would be nice to get someone approaching a slam-dunk. 

    Well, slam dunks are going to cost boat loads of money, money that Sandy and Wilpons refuse to spend. If Frazier struck out a little bit less and didn't have those infield fly issues, he'd be something like Josh Donaldson. The free agent crop as a whole is rather weak and flawed this year, to be honest. If you think about the top guys - Yu Darvish is not even an ace and has pitched 200 innings in a season exactly once in his MLB career; JD Martinez is an elite hitter but his value is suppressed by the fact he's negative everywhere else; Eric Hosmer has literally traded good seasons with replacement level seasons since he debuted and is the furthest thing from a slam dunk.

    Ironically, even though he has his flaws, Frazier has been pretty consistent; he's been worth +2.5 WAR or more in every single season, has had an OPS+ above league average in 5 of 6 seasons, and he's played 150 or more games in 4 of the last 5 seasons.

     

  10. In the moments of an actual baseball game, yes, it can be frustrating to watch. The strikeouts aren't even the most frustrating part of Frazier's game, though - it's the infield pop-ups. He's led MLB in infield flyball rate for two consecutive seasons! But Frazier makes up for it with his power, which ranks among the best at his position, and good defense at 3B. He also has a walk rate just under 12% over the last two seasons combined, which is something. He's certainly not perfect; he IS on the wrong side of 30 and the tandem of strikeouts and infield flies will continue to kill his BA and probably drive fans nuts... but even with that, he contributes enough in other areas to be a pretty good player. He's not someone I would commit more than 3 years to (the defense will decline and once the power goes, he's done) but he should be fine in the short-term.

  11. I guess I'm in the minority in that I like the idea of signing Frazier. Mostly because the alternatives kind of suck (he was always a wiser alternative to signing Moustakas or trading for Longoria) and he shouldn't break the bank (Fangraphs' contract crowdsource projected him for about him 3 years at $14M AAV). He's not some kind of difference-maker but he's been a consistent, above average player and he does make the Mets better.

    As for the McCutchen rumors, he's still a good player, but I just don't love the fit on this roster - he doesn't belong in CF anymore for one and he's a 1-year rental. If the Mets were a piece or two away from being legitimate NL contenders, it would be different. I feel like if you're going to acquire McCutchen you may as well go for it all and try to swing a deal for Machado as well, but we know the Mets certainly don't have the resources to pull that off. But the point is, they would still need another big splash. McCutchen and Frazier make the team better, but they still need more.

    Give me McCutchen, Frazier, and another big move (signing Darvish or something of that ilk) and I'm on board. But give me McCutchen and Frazier, call it an offseason, and it can get ugly (now and in the future) if things don't break right. Sadly, we know the former has next to 0% of happening....

  12. I'm weirdly okay with Omar returning. He has his flaws as a GM, but he has a niche for finding amateur talent. It's easy to forget the Mets' successes in recent years have had a LOT to do with the talent he brought in (Harvey, deGrom, Matz, Familia, Duda, Flores, Lagares, etc.). He even had a hand in the acquisition of Syndergaard and d'Arnaud to a small degree with the signing of RA Dickey in the first place.

  13. The problem with Bruce is his value is 100% tied to power. He's not going to hit for average, he doesn't draw so many walks, he's a negative defensive player, etc. As soon as the power starts to drop off just a bit, he's a replacement level talent. Just look at 2014 and 2015 as an example of what Bruce is when he's not running a .250+ ISO. He doesn't have the type of skillset that ages well whatsoever and now you'd be getting him on the wrong side of 30. Roster construction wise, he's still as poor of a fit as he was when we originally traded for him; the Mets already have two good corner outfielders (albeit with injury history) and Bruce has minimal experience playing 1B. It's trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. I just wouldn't bother going there. If the Mets aren't satisfied with Smith, go out and get a real 1B. If they're not happy with their outfield depth and/or are worried about Cespedes/Conforto holding up, sign a quality 4th outfielder type like Jarrod Dyson or Jon Jay. 

  14. Giants just traded for Evan Longoria. I never bought that our interest was genuine but I'm glad he's "officially" off the radar now. We already have one toasted 3B making tons of money, we didn't need another one that looks headed that way. Hopefully they do us another favor and sign Jay Bruce next.

  15. Sounds like the Mets are interested in Adrian Gonzalez after he was released by Atlanta. This one doesn't really pass the smell test whatsoever, but that would be such a horrible move; I'm not a big believer in Smith but Gonzalez is old, bad, injury-prone, and was a clubhouse problem last season when he was usurped by Cody Bellinger. Giant no thank you. 

  16. 1 hour ago, '7' said:

    Rosario is 22, so if he isn't MLB ready yet he should be very very close. He certainly looked overwhelmed at times last year at the plate. Chased a lot of outside stuff. For as highly ranked as he was as a prospect I don't think anybody was blown away by what we saw.

    Dom Smith is a non starter and just not a 1b in todays MLB. Short, slow, stocky singles hitters are DOA. The 9hr's are a mirage. Perhaps aided by the juiced balls of last season. I hope they move him as soon as possible while he's still more of an upside guy rather than a proven commodity.

    Wouldn't mind them signing career stopgap Mark Reynolds. Or Carlos Santana. Would love to get him in here to play 1b but they probably won't go either route.

    Gone to the Phils just now for 3 years, $60M with a 4th year club option.

    Also, Zack Cozart just signed for 3 years at $38M with the Angels. I wouldn't buy into his crazy good 2017 being the norm but he's no worse than an above average regular; he wouldn't necessarily have blocked Rosario either since you could always have moved him to 3B, which is what it appears the Angels will do. They've had such a loud and exciting offseason, huh?

  17. Haha, I'm usually lurking around once in awhile on here and NYFS but I honestly don't follow the team or baseball in general as much as I used to. Just much more difficult to do these days between work, personal life, and other hobbies/passions. 

    The thing with Rosario is he looked very raw and unrefined with his approach at the plate last season. I know it wasn't a lot of plate appearances, but from what I remember, the stats that stabilize more quickly are plate discipline.. I'd have to look it up but I wouldn't be surprised if he had the worst, or at least one of the worst, walk to strikeout ratios in the league. He's probably never going to draw many walks, which isn't such a big deal for a SS who has other tools (I'm not sure if this comp has been thrown out, but I can see an Alcides Escobar with more power), but he definitely needs a better approach at the plate. If the Mets think of 2018 as a non-contending year, then sure, it's probably okay to just give Rosario 150+ games and let him take his lumps at the MLB level... but (for as many holes as they do have), I think they CAN actually contend, and I'd hate to see them be content with an infield made up of Cabrera, Rosario, and Smith and think everything will be all fine and dandy. Even if they trade for Kipnis that's still a very uninspiring group.

    I will say, I rather them prioritize CF and 1B. At least with Rosario you can hope and dream on the premium prospect upside, the glove, some power, the baserunning, etc. With Smith, the bar is much higher to be an average starter next season, especially for someone who is in the red when it comes to defense and baserunning. I think we know what Lagares/Nimmo are at this point, and while they are useful pieces in some capacity, neither has any business starting.

  18. On 12/13/2017 at 12:24 PM, '7' said:

    Mets have signed Anthony Swarzak to a two year deal worth $14 million dollars. 32 years old and been pretty much a good year-bad year-meh year reliever throughout his career (as a lot of guys are)  His K's were quite good last year relative to innings pitched. He would give up his share of hits but last year those finally started to trend down as well.

    Looking at the numbers shows that but there were some underlying changes/factors in Swarzak's success last season - he started throwing his slider much more and he went from a 93-94 mph guy to a 95 mph guy. That may not seem like much, but his contact rate dropped off significantly last season:

    swarzak-contact.png

    Credit: Fangraphs.com

    It was a much-needed signing but the bullpen still looks problematic. Familia is coming off a forgettable season, Ramos is a bit like a rich man's Hansel Robles (that's not a positive endorsement), Blevins is good but matchup-specific only, and the rest of the group is a combination of unknown, meh, or bad. I don't know if it will happen (probably not) but they really should be adding at least one more reliable reliever here.

    But... they really need to get their sh!t together with the rest of the roster. I've never been big on Dom Smith and for a team "planning" to contend next season, he's not an acceptable answer at 1B. With Conforto not likely to be ready by Opening Day and Cespedes being like glass, they cannot depend on Lagares/Nimmo in CF. If you get full seasons out of Cespedes/Conforto AND address the other holes then MAYBE you can talk me into it, but we know that's not going to happen which means you'll get too many lineups with your 4th and 5th outfielders in there. It does seem like they plan on doing something at 2B and I'm all for a Kipnis buy-low trade; I think there's more upside to him than a 35 year old Ian Kinsler (whose off the board anyway now). I don't like the current "plan" with the left side of the infield at all; Rosario is absolutely not MLB-ready and Cabrera isn't good enough to settle on at 3B if you're starting Rosario. I CAN live with Cabrera at 3B or SS if you go out and get a league average or better starter at one of those positions, however. The rotation could also use a league average, #3-type starter to bridge the gap between deGrom/Thor and the question mark types (Matz, Harvey, etc.).

    So... that's a lot of holes. But with that said, the NL East is rather unimpressive as is the rest of the NL once you get past teams like LA, Chicago, and the Nats. The Mets should be able to contend for a Wild Card with a few shrewd moves and better health/injury luck this season.

  19. Yeah I don't think the Mets need to "force" themselves to get McCutchen. I have a feeling they'll move Bruce, go with the current group, and reevaluate the situation in June and July. By then, they'll have a better grasp on Conforto as starter, how Granderson's aging body is holding up in CF, etc. I still don't find that ideal but you could certainly argue it's better than going for broke with McCutchen, who is obviously going to cost a lot and has some questions hanging over his head. 

  20. Well the unfair thing about looking at McCutchen's WAR totals the last handful of years is that virtually nobody can maintain 7- and 8-WAR paces season after season (unless you're Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw). He was still an elite player in 2014 and 2015 and his batting numbers were pretty consistent in those years (he actually had a higher wRC+ in 2014 than 2013).

    Last season his defense basically crashed and burned while the bat fell off in every category - the normally-elite BABIP dropped, strikeouts up, power and walks down. He only stole 6 bases as well, a career-low. The core batting numbers just smell fluky to me and I think he bounces back there; maybe not to 2013-2015 levels, but still really good. The defense and base-stealing, I'd be less certain. He is 30 years old after all and there were signs in 2014 and 2015 that he was declining in those areas. 

    Steamer projects him for .283/.378/.470 (129 wRC+) with < 10 stolen bases and poor defense again; that seems about right to me, although I think I'd take the over on the bat. Anyway, that's still enough to make him a 3.5 WAR player; not elite, but still quite good.

  21. Considering his age and past season, McCutchen worries me a bit for a guy that is going to cost a lot, but there's no doubting he would help alleviate our current roster issues - 1) you're getting a real CF, 2) you're helping clear the corner OF logjam since Conforto would certainly be a part of the pieces going back to Pittsburgh, and 3) although not as critical as the first two, you're getting less lefty-heavy. You still have to trade Bruce in a separate move to complete the overhaul, but as I've said before, I don't think that'll be too difficult as long as we have low (aka realistic) expectations of what he's bringing back. 

  22. The Phins fans here are going to really hate me when I say this but they really haven't looked like a playoff team, regardless of who the QB is. Their post-bye schedule has been really soft - Jets twice, Chargers, Rams, 49ers, Cardinals - and outside of this most recent game against the Jets, they've won by a TD or less against each of those teams. They did beat the Steelers at home in Week 6 but they've lost to every other competitive team on their schedule. They kind of feel like the Lions of the AFC - it hasn't always been pretty but somehow they sit 9-5. I think just getting into the playoffs should feel like a win (especially with the current QB situation); anything else from there would be gravy. 

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