nmigliore

Saw this on Twitter... Nice to see deGrom's velocity perking back up. Pretty significant to go from averaging 92.5 mph in the first start to 94 mph the other night. Hopefully this progression continues, the strikeouts go back up, and we'll all laugh about the concerns we had over the velocity dip in ST and April.

I probably had higher expectations on him than others, but Lugo has been disappointing, too; ugly ERA aside, while his walks are in fine shape he's not missing many bats. It's starting to look like his big strikeout numbers concluding last season in AAA were a blip. With the exception of Gsellman, whose strikeout rate is more decent than great, there really isn't anybody to be optimistic about in the upper levels, pitching-wise. I'm still holding out some hope for Montero but he hasn't demonstrated good control in 3 years now and it's clear he's falling (or has already fallen) out of favor with our front office.

I think we just need good health from the rotation and a starting-caliber MLB catcher. That should be enough to get into the postseason. From there, despite the constant narratives of what works and what doesn't in the playoffs, it's really just about good luck/timing since the difference between the best playoff team and the worst is so minuscule in a short series. Edit: Actually, I shouldn't say "just get to the postseason" -- avoiding the Wild Card game is pretty significant. But win your division and anything is possible. The baseball Gods (or if you want to be nerdy: randomness!) decide your fate from there.

Gaudreau is coming off of a 30-goal season where he averaged nearly a point per game as a 22 year old (and was a 24-goal scorer with 64 points the season prior). I'm not aware of the Flames' cap situation but even if they were with issues, he's not a player you give any inkling of moving.

Was just looking through some numbers in the minors and it's nice to see Rosario is still raking. Relative to last season his walks are up, strikeouts are down, and he already has 14 XBH in 141 PA (he had 25 in 427 PA last season). He's also stolen 7 bases already, which is more than half of his total from last season. Wulimer Becerra is the forgotten man in the Dickey trade, and he's still very much a prospect, but it's hard to get too excited over the loud slash line as he's doing that with meh plate discipline and zero power. For every ball he puts in play, he's getting a hit a hair under 50% of the time; that's wild.

Yeah, Gilmartin has been pretty good in AAA. He's been lucky in the sense his ERA doesn't match his FIP, but his FIP is still pretty decent relative to the environment/league, and he's doing that as a starter. He also did a fine job in the Majors last season as a reliever and doesn't have a platoon split. Even though Verrett is our 6th/spot starter, I'm not so sure Gilmartin would be any worse if it came down to needing to DL Matz. I was also surprised to see Gilmartin is only one month older than Verrett.

I have low expectations tonight facing Kershaw; obviously anything can happen in a single game, but Fangraphs' pregame odds put the Dodgers with a near-70% win expectancy. Those are higher odds than the Orioles have in a juicy matchup vs Mike Pelfrey in Camden Yards tonight. Hopefully they can snag a couple wins in Colorado with Harvey and deGrom on the mound. Mets really need Granderson and Duda to start turning things around, but I'm optimistic; their core numbers aren't very different than last season and it appears they're mostly being dragged down by low BABIPs.

Can't believe Colon went deep. I didn't see like anything this weekend, but I can't stop watching that replay and that replay only. Holy smokes. Looks like Harvey had a decent on-paper outing but I kind of take that with a grain of salt considering it was the Padres (and in PetCo to boot). Per PFX, it looks as if his FB was averaging 95 mph yesterday, though, which is a little bit encouraging. Speaking of velocity, deGrom has pitched well so far, but has struggled to strike hitters out. I was thinking the dip in strikeouts had something to do with his down velocity, but I don't think so -- his contact rate against is only 74.6%, which is actually down from 2015, and his swinging strike rate is 12.5%, which is right in line with 2015 (12.7%). Seems like things should begin to even out for him in the strikeout department, although the dip in velocity still worries me some.

Would be nice to see them pull out 7 wins (3 of 4 vs Pads, split 2 with LA, and 2 of 3 from Rockies) but that may be asking for a bit too much for a west coast trip. The Padres aren't Braves-bad (nobody really is), but they're still one of the worst teams in baseball. Hoping they can beat up on them allowing more room for error vs LA and Colorado.

The Phils don't bother me at all. CR already covered it, but the underlying numbers don't support their record. They're playing more like an 11-16 team but instead sit at 16-11 thanks to fortunate timing of events. No team in baseball has outperformed their run differential as much as the Phils have so far. There's definitely some decent young talent there, and their front office finally appears to be in the right hands after years of Rubin Amaro's nonsense, so maybe their long road back to relevance will be shorter than initially anticipated. But it's not going to be in 2016.

Which would be fine; among MLB 3B with at least 400 PA last season, only nine had an OPS equal to or greater than .800 and only five did the year prior.

Re: Wright - Obviously the strikeouts will need to come down -- Wright has always been a high BABIP hitter, which makes his strikeouts more palatable than your average guy -- but he's not going to sustain his current rate of .391. I also have some doubts that he'll maintain a .200+ ISO. But for a month plus into the season, you have to be pleased with his overall numbers (his OPS sits in the top third of MLB at his position) especially given the preseason expectations. The Nats have definitely gotten some breaks, re: their pitching. Their ERA-FIP differential is 2nd highest in MLB, meaning they've outperformed their FIP more than every team in baseball besides the Rangers. Their ERA-xFIP differential is even wider (by 1.32 runs). Strasburg has been fantastic but guys like Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark and Joe Ross -- who is rocking a 0.79 ERA despite a 5.56 K/9 -- are due for some regression.

Brian Hoyer ended up signing with the Bears to backup Cutler. Kind of surprised he couldn't find a gig with more playing time potential elsewhere, but following the fallout of the draft, I guess there just wasn't much out there. Would be stunned if Fitzpatrick isn't a Jet at this point.

Not sure if it's been mentioned here but Michael Fulmer, who was dealt to Detroit for Cespedes last July, is making his MLB debut tonight vs the Twins.

I'd be mildly surprised if the Phins didn't trade up for Elliot, but if the Chargers surprise by taking Ramsey, I bet he's a Cowboy.

Just to highlight how bad the Braves have been - they've hit a total of 4 homeruns this season.... 4!! That's obviously the lowest total in baseball; the next lowest is the Marlins at 13, more than 3 times the Braves' amount of dingers. They have a team slash line of .224/.297/.282, which is like the equivalent of a lineup full of Brendan Ryans (or worse). Their team ERA is over 5 and ranks 4th worst in baseball. Yikes.

I don't know about .500, but yeah, I think there is a clear gap between the Phillies and Braves (I didn't think there would be one, initially). JP Crawford, one of the top prospects in baseball, will come up at some point this year too and make Philly better. Odubel Herrera was a heck of a Rule V find for them. Very nice run for the Mets after the poor start. Harvey's average velocity has ticked up ever so slightly in each of his last two starts where he's whiffed 12 batters and walked just 2 over 11 innings. Not exactly facing much competition with the Braves and Reds -- who rank 30th and 28th in park/league-adjusted offense, respectively (and frankly, saying the Braves rank 30th isn't even doing justice to how HORRIBLE they've been at the plate) -- but I'll take any kind of silver linings I can out of Matt right now.

I'm not so concerned about d'Arnaud's bat than his health. If he plays, I think he'll hit (he's played a whopping 13 games this season so I don't care what his numbers are right now). But the problem is if he has to miss extended time, the Mets are going to be ugly behind the plate. Plawecki is lucky to even be up here as a backup - forget it as a starter. Lucroy worries me a little bit, but I'd cautiously say they'd have to pursue him if d'Arnaud had to have something severe done, like shoulder surgery. But as it stands now, with little dings and some DL stints here and there, I'm afraid they'll have to hodge-podge their way with Plawecki and some no name like Rene Rivera.... which is why it would've been a good idea to add a better backup catcher in the offseason instead of forgetting about it until spring training.

Yep, there was clearly something wrong there for the Mets to back off on that deal. Gomez has been nothing short of horrible since then. If that deal was consummated, the Mets almost certainly don't make the playoffs last season nor would have good odds this season. Speaking of which, Cespedes is out of the lineup again tonight - De Aza in CF.

re: Ynoa - even that FIP is deflated because he's given up no homeruns; that'll change soon given the environment and the fact he's not a big groundball pitcher. Gsellman is at a lower level obviously but the uptick in velocity (again, if sustainable and not just a 1-start fluke), strikeouts, and the groundball rate (nearly 70%) are all really positive signs. Rosario is another really young-for-his-league guy. The Mets pushed him aggressively going from Brooklyn in 2014 to high-A in 2015 at just 19 years old. That's usually the path of advanced college hitters drafted in the early rounds. I'm actually a bit surprised they didn't send him to AA to begin this season, but there was certainly no harm in sending him back to St. Lucie.

I've personally never been a big fan either, but to be fair, he was ranked as our 3rd best prospect by MLB.com and 4th best by Baseball America and was quite good in AA last season as one of the youngest players in the league (and is now one of the youngest in the PCL). Despite the errors, the scouting reports make it appear as if he has enough defensive tools (good hands, above average arm) to stick at SS. The knock on him is, and has always been, that he lacks a "plus" tool and is more of a low-ceiling/high-floor prospect. I think he's more of a 2nd division starter type up the middle, but there's a good chance there is some kind of MLB player there.

Didn't get to see much this weekend, but happy to see them take care of the Braves. If there is a team in the league you should be counting on sweeping, it would be them (and/or the Phillies). I haven't ready any followup after his first start, but Gsellman was showing more velocity, which could explain the (much-needed) uptick in strikeouts. I don't think he'll be long for AA at this pace. Not impressed with Ynoa in AAA so far. The roof is going to cave in there very soon. You can add Cecchini to the list of AAA prospects that isn't hitting at all, too.

At least with the Rams, if you squint hard enough, it may be a teeny bit defensible, moving to a new city and having like the worst QB situation in the league. The Eagles, not so much. Titans and Browns coming away MASSIVE winners in this. Good for them.

I don't remember that story, re: Walker's father, but pretty creepy indeed. Shockingly, 3 of Walker's homers this season have come vs LHP. Prior to this season, he had 6 (!) against LHP for his entire career.

Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN 15m15 minutes ago Inside Edge had Noah Syndergaard's fastball averaging 99 mph and topping out at 101 mph.