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Everything posted by nmigliore

  1. Yep it's hard to argue with that, re: the draft. Conforto looks like he can be a star if he can stay healthy, but then again he was taken 10th overall. Fulmer was a great pick for 44th overall, I'll give them that, but Detroit's reaping those benefits now. But besides that... it's been pretty miserable. Seth Lugo was a nice find relative to his round but his upside is probably no higher than a league average starter. Nimmo looks like he can be a contributor in some capacity but he was a high pick (13th overall) and the upside is pretty limited there.
  2. Well, slam dunks are going to cost boat loads of money, money that Sandy and Wilpons refuse to spend. If Frazier struck out a little bit less and didn't have those infield fly issues, he'd be something like Josh Donaldson. The free agent crop as a whole is rather weak and flawed this year, to be honest. If you think about the top guys - Yu Darvish is not even an ace and has pitched 200 innings in a season exactly once in his MLB career; JD Martinez is an elite hitter but his value is suppressed by the fact he's negative everywhere else; Eric Hosmer has literally traded good seasons with replacement level seasons since he debuted and is the furthest thing from a slam dunk. Ironically, even though he has his flaws, Frazier has been pretty consistent; he's been worth +2.5 WAR or more in every single season, has had an OPS+ above league average in 5 of 6 seasons, and he's played 150 or more games in 4 of the last 5 seasons.
  3. In the moments of an actual baseball game, yes, it can be frustrating to watch. The strikeouts aren't even the most frustrating part of Frazier's game, though - it's the infield pop-ups. He's led MLB in infield flyball rate for two consecutive seasons! But Frazier makes up for it with his power, which ranks among the best at his position, and good defense at 3B. He also has a walk rate just under 12% over the last two seasons combined, which is something. He's certainly not perfect; he IS on the wrong side of 30 and the tandem of strikeouts and infield flies will continue to kill his BA and probably drive fans nuts... but even with that, he contributes enough in other areas to be a pretty good player. He's not someone I would commit more than 3 years to (the defense will decline and once the power goes, he's done) but he should be fine in the short-term.
  4. I guess I'm in the minority in that I like the idea of signing Frazier. Mostly because the alternatives kind of suck (he was always a wiser alternative to signing Moustakas or trading for Longoria) and he shouldn't break the bank (Fangraphs' contract crowdsource projected him for about him 3 years at $14M AAV). He's not some kind of difference-maker but he's been a consistent, above average player and he does make the Mets better. As for the McCutchen rumors, he's still a good player, but I just don't love the fit on this roster - he doesn't belong in CF anymore for one and he's a 1-year rental. If the Mets were a piece or two away from being legitimate NL contenders, it would be different. I feel like if you're going to acquire McCutchen you may as well go for it all and try to swing a deal for Machado as well, but we know the Mets certainly don't have the resources to pull that off. But the point is, they would still need another big splash. McCutchen and Frazier make the team better, but they still need more. Give me McCutchen, Frazier, and another big move (signing Darvish or something of that ilk) and I'm on board. But give me McCutchen and Frazier, call it an offseason, and it can get ugly (now and in the future) if things don't break right. Sadly, we know the former has next to 0% of happening....
  5. I'm weirdly okay with Omar returning. He has his flaws as a GM, but he has a niche for finding amateur talent. It's easy to forget the Mets' successes in recent years have had a LOT to do with the talent he brought in (Harvey, deGrom, Matz, Familia, Duda, Flores, Lagares, etc.). He even had a hand in the acquisition of Syndergaard and d'Arnaud to a small degree with the signing of RA Dickey in the first place.
  6. The problem with Bruce is his value is 100% tied to power. He's not going to hit for average, he doesn't draw so many walks, he's a negative defensive player, etc. As soon as the power starts to drop off just a bit, he's a replacement level talent. Just look at 2014 and 2015 as an example of what Bruce is when he's not running a .250+ ISO. He doesn't have the type of skillset that ages well whatsoever and now you'd be getting him on the wrong side of 30. Roster construction wise, he's still as poor of a fit as he was when we originally traded for him; the Mets already have two good corner outfielders (albeit with injury history) and Bruce has minimal experience playing 1B. It's trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. I just wouldn't bother going there. If the Mets aren't satisfied with Smith, go out and get a real 1B. If they're not happy with their outfield depth and/or are worried about Cespedes/Conforto holding up, sign a quality 4th outfielder type like Jarrod Dyson or Jon Jay.
  7. Giants just traded for Evan Longoria. I never bought that our interest was genuine but I'm glad he's "officially" off the radar now. We already have one toasted 3B making tons of money, we didn't need another one that looks headed that way. Hopefully they do us another favor and sign Jay Bruce next.
  8. Sounds like the Mets are interested in Adrian Gonzalez after he was released by Atlanta. This one doesn't really pass the smell test whatsoever, but that would be such a horrible move; I'm not a big believer in Smith but Gonzalez is old, bad, injury-prone, and was a clubhouse problem last season when he was usurped by Cody Bellinger. Giant no thank you.
  9. Gone to the Phils just now for 3 years, $60M with a 4th year club option. Also, Zack Cozart just signed for 3 years at $38M with the Angels. I wouldn't buy into his crazy good 2017 being the norm but he's no worse than an above average regular; he wouldn't necessarily have blocked Rosario either since you could always have moved him to 3B, which is what it appears the Angels will do. They've had such a loud and exciting offseason, huh?
  10. Haha, I'm usually lurking around once in awhile on here and NYFS but I honestly don't follow the team or baseball in general as much as I used to. Just much more difficult to do these days between work, personal life, and other hobbies/passions. The thing with Rosario is he looked very raw and unrefined with his approach at the plate last season. I know it wasn't a lot of plate appearances, but from what I remember, the stats that stabilize more quickly are plate discipline.. I'd have to look it up but I wouldn't be surprised if he had the worst, or at least one of the worst, walk to strikeout ratios in the league. He's probably never going to draw many walks, which isn't such a big deal for a SS who has other tools (I'm not sure if this comp has been thrown out, but I can see an Alcides Escobar with more power), but he definitely needs a better approach at the plate. If the Mets think of 2018 as a non-contending year, then sure, it's probably okay to just give Rosario 150+ games and let him take his lumps at the MLB level... but (for as many holes as they do have), I think they CAN actually contend, and I'd hate to see them be content with an infield made up of Cabrera, Rosario, and Smith and think everything will be all fine and dandy. Even if they trade for Kipnis that's still a very uninspiring group. I will say, I rather them prioritize CF and 1B. At least with Rosario you can hope and dream on the premium prospect upside, the glove, some power, the baserunning, etc. With Smith, the bar is much higher to be an average starter next season, especially for someone who is in the red when it comes to defense and baserunning. I think we know what Lagares/Nimmo are at this point, and while they are useful pieces in some capacity, neither has any business starting.
  11. Looking at the numbers shows that but there were some underlying changes/factors in Swarzak's success last season - he started throwing his slider much more and he went from a 93-94 mph guy to a 95 mph guy. That may not seem like much, but his contact rate dropped off significantly last season: Credit: Fangraphs.com It was a much-needed signing but the bullpen still looks problematic. Familia is coming off a forgettable season, Ramos is a bit like a rich man's Hansel Robles (that's not a positive endorsement), Blevins is good but matchup-specific only, and the rest of the group is a combination of unknown, meh, or bad. I don't know if it will happen (probably not) but they really should be adding at least one more reliable reliever here. But... they really need to get their sh!t together with the rest of the roster. I've never been big on Dom Smith and for a team "planning" to contend next season, he's not an acceptable answer at 1B. With Conforto not likely to be ready by Opening Day and Cespedes being like glass, they cannot depend on Lagares/Nimmo in CF. If you get full seasons out of Cespedes/Conforto AND address the other holes then MAYBE you can talk me into it, but we know that's not going to happen which means you'll get too many lineups with your 4th and 5th outfielders in there. It does seem like they plan on doing something at 2B and I'm all for a Kipnis buy-low trade; I think there's more upside to him than a 35 year old Ian Kinsler (whose off the board anyway now). I don't like the current "plan" with the left side of the infield at all; Rosario is absolutely not MLB-ready and Cabrera isn't good enough to settle on at 3B if you're starting Rosario. I CAN live with Cabrera at 3B or SS if you go out and get a league average or better starter at one of those positions, however. The rotation could also use a league average, #3-type starter to bridge the gap between deGrom/Thor and the question mark types (Matz, Harvey, etc.). So... that's a lot of holes. But with that said, the NL East is rather unimpressive as is the rest of the NL once you get past teams like LA, Chicago, and the Nats. The Mets should be able to contend for a Wild Card with a few shrewd moves and better health/injury luck this season.
  12. Yeah I don't think the Mets need to "force" themselves to get McCutchen. I have a feeling they'll move Bruce, go with the current group, and reevaluate the situation in June and July. By then, they'll have a better grasp on Conforto as starter, how Granderson's aging body is holding up in CF, etc. I still don't find that ideal but you could certainly argue it's better than going for broke with McCutchen, who is obviously going to cost a lot and has some questions hanging over his head.
  13. Well the unfair thing about looking at McCutchen's WAR totals the last handful of years is that virtually nobody can maintain 7- and 8-WAR paces season after season (unless you're Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw). He was still an elite player in 2014 and 2015 and his batting numbers were pretty consistent in those years (he actually had a higher wRC+ in 2014 than 2013). Last season his defense basically crashed and burned while the bat fell off in every category - the normally-elite BABIP dropped, strikeouts up, power and walks down. He only stole 6 bases as well, a career-low. The core batting numbers just smell fluky to me and I think he bounces back there; maybe not to 2013-2015 levels, but still really good. The defense and base-stealing, I'd be less certain. He is 30 years old after all and there were signs in 2014 and 2015 that he was declining in those areas. Steamer projects him for .283/.378/.470 (129 wRC+) with < 10 stolen bases and poor defense again; that seems about right to me, although I think I'd take the over on the bat. Anyway, that's still enough to make him a 3.5 WAR player; not elite, but still quite good.
  14. Considering his age and past season, McCutchen worries me a bit for a guy that is going to cost a lot, but there's no doubting he would help alleviate our current roster issues - 1) you're getting a real CF, 2) you're helping clear the corner OF logjam since Conforto would certainly be a part of the pieces going back to Pittsburgh, and 3) although not as critical as the first two, you're getting less lefty-heavy. You still have to trade Bruce in a separate move to complete the overhaul, but as I've said before, I don't think that'll be too difficult as long as we have low (aka realistic) expectations of what he's bringing back.
  15. The Phins fans here are going to really hate me when I say this but they really haven't looked like a playoff team, regardless of who the QB is. Their post-bye schedule has been really soft - Jets twice, Chargers, Rams, 49ers, Cardinals - and outside of this most recent game against the Jets, they've won by a TD or less against each of those teams. They did beat the Steelers at home in Week 6 but they've lost to every other competitive team on their schedule. They kind of feel like the Lions of the AFC - it hasn't always been pretty but somehow they sit 9-5. I think just getting into the playoffs should feel like a win (especially with the current QB situation); anything else from there would be gravy.
  16. Ramos may not even be ready for the start of the season. I bet he ends up taking a 1 year pillow deal to reestablish his value with an AL team where he can split duties between catcher and DH. I would be frightened to take a chance on him if I were an NL team.
  17. Almost no chance Washington doesn't acquire McCutchen now, right? Hard to imagine them flubbing 2 splashy moves like that.
  18. Ramos is a free agent and the Nats just traded for Derek Norris so a reunion doesn't seem too likely, IMO.
  19. I would've rather have seen them get McCutchen who is coming off a pretty poor season. He'll probably bounce back but it's not like last season *didn't* happen, he's over 30, and the 2015 version of McCutchen probably isn't coming back either way. There's always the injury potential with a pitcher but Sale definitely makes the Nats better than McCutchen would have.
  20. Speaking of catchers... the D-Backs shockingly non-tendered catcher Welington Castillo. I'd be all over him if I were Sandy but I bet they won't be ("we're content with d'Arnaud/Rivera!"). Surprised they couldn't trade him, he definitely had some value.
  21. I'm not at all surprised teams like Granderson more. Their remaining contracts are close to a wash (1/13 for Bruce, 1/16 for Granderson) and it's really not even close to who has performed better over the last 2 seasons: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=9892,4747 Teams are smart and see Bruce for what he is: a one-dimensional player whose a big negative in the field and has sucked at the plate in 2.5 out of the last 3 seasons. Granderson is at least a capable corner outfielder defensively, who can be plugged in CF in a pinch, and comes with a solid floor at the plate due to his walk/power combo. It also doesn't hurt that he's a major clubhouse presence guy (yeah, I said it). That doesn't mean the Mets won't be able to trade Bruce; I can pretty easily see some AL team wanting to plug their OF/DH hole while not committing or yielding much in return, but that's just it - the Mets won't be getting much of anything in return, it'll be a pure salary dump.
  22. Trading two outfielders would definitely make more sense from roster construction standpoint - by moving just one, the team still doesn't have an actual CF, but by moving two, you suddenly have room to bring in a real CF. But who would that be? They almost certainly aren't moving both to plop Lagares in CF. Bruce would be a pure salary dump, Granderson much less so, but I don't think you're getting back a starting CF for either of them. Conforto is the more attractive trade chip if you go down that route (Dave Cameron of Fangraphs reviewed this precise scenario here). Would they consider signing Fowler with the salary savings? I have to say, the trade-off of Bruce and Granderson for Fowler is pretty attractive - the outfield logjam would be cleared, the lefty-heaviness mitigated, the outfield defensive scheme no longer worrisome, and the Mets would probably even come out ahead in wins with that swap (plus you're getting somethings back for Granderson and Bruce).
  23. Fangraphs' Depth Chart projections have this team at 84 wins as currently constructed (Nats are at 88 for reference), but they expect the Mets to get zilch out of Wright (which may be fair) and the projections on Granderson, Cabrera, and Cespedes all seem a bit light. That trio combined for +8.8 WAR last season despite a banged up, 132-game output from Cespedes; the projections peg them for +5.3 in 2017. It's fair to reason that Granderson and Cabrera will regress given their ages, but projecting them to be worth a combined +2.4 WAR seems pretty pessimistic in my eyes. They'd also gain about a win just by dumping Bruce and replacing him with Conforto, so I see them closer to maybe 86-88 wins. The outfield defense will probably be ugly again unless the Mets go out and make two outfielder trades (I doubt it), but for me, the main priority at this point should be jettisoning Bruce and fortifying the bullpen a bit. I still stand by the idea of Steve Pearce for the bench and it would be nice to find a catcher, but they'll probably give d'Arnaud one more go at it.
  24. Tremendous news! Seems like both parties found a happy medium with supplying a higher AAV in exchange for not going 5 years. Either way, we NEEDED to resign him so this is awesome! Now it's time to make Jay Bruce go away. Conforto is younger, a better defensive player, cheaper, and so on. I would hate to see the Mets sell low on Conforto and keep Bruce. Dump him for whatever and sign Steve Pearce. Pearce would be a great fit here - he can serve as much-needed platoon partner for Conforto and Duda while also serving as an insurance policy if Conforto flops (I'd bet against that - Conforto still managed an .800+ OPS vs RHP last season) or if we get hit by injuries again.
  25. Yeah, I can totally see a scenario where the Mets reacquire him at the deadline if they need a back-end starter due to injury/ineffectiveness. To a somewhat lesser extent, this situation played out last season with Kelly Johnson. This goes without saying really but Colon is definitely one of the wonders of baseball at this point considering his velocity, pitch tendencies, age, weight, etc. It just feels like a package that is destined to explode with an injury or getting destroyed at some point, but who knows when that will happen. You can tell me April 2017 or never and I'd believe both. If he can maintain being the Big Sexy that we've come to know and love the past few years, and we have the need in July, I'd be happy to bring him back. But at least the Mets aren't taking the gamble of $12M+ blowing up in their face. They have far more pressing needs to throw that kind of money at. It just makes too much sense to ride one of the young guys like Gsellman for a fraction of the cost.
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