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ATLL765

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Posts posted by ATLL765

  1. What a disastrous two yeara for him.

    And for Columbus. They already had something like 350 man games lost to injury. Now with Clarkson out for the rest of the season, you gotta think they're closing in on some sort of NHL record for number or games lost due to injury. Absolutely crazy how many players they had on their starting roster have been injured for significant time this season.

  2. Nobles lost their tournament game. Looks like Miles Wood's final stat line is: 17 GP 17-18-35. Given that he stayed in HS at age 19, I imagine he'll spend 4 years at BC and the hit free agency. Anyway, how long do the Devils have his rights for? Just 2 more years (his FR and SO years) or am I wrong? I always get confused since some guys that don't go to college right away (spend a year in Jr. A or USHL) then stay in college for all 4 years, seem to still have their rights owned by the team that drafted them, even though that's 5 years later.

    I thought that a team held the rights of their NCAA prospects until 30 days after they leave college.

    It would seem that if that weren't the case that teams would kinda get cheated as they'd not have had the opportunity to have the player under direct control of the organization in the way that they would with a player coming out of junior that then plays for a team's AHL affiliate.

  3. lol.

    Moron.

    Why is this necessary? There's no need to call him a moron.

    The show clearly has a liberal bias, albeit one that has no business being placed on a pedestal as some sort of equal counterweight to Fox News' clear conservative bias, and if you're on the opposite end of the political spectrum it's possible that the show would be unappealing.

    Maybe you can say he has no sense of humor since you pretty much have to lack one to not enjoy the Daily Show, but stooping to name calling over a difference in politics is the exact thing that Jon Stewart railed against in the clip I posted as well as his entire career hosting his show.

  4. I am not going to compare Fox News to the Daily Show. Both have their agendas on opposite ends of the spectrum so this would be a never-ending debate.

    What is concerning is there were a few surveys done a couple years back asking where those in the 18-39ish age range get their news from. Outside of the Internet and social media, the Daily Show was next on the list. Yes, young adults put a fake comedy news program ahead of other traditional media.

    Also Stewart is very overrated. A large majority of his "comedy" is lines fed to him by a teleprompter. He wasn't that great of a comedian before and he won't do much afterwards. I would also argue that for the first few years he was being propped up by Colbert and Carrell with the later being far more successful in his career post Daily Show.

    However I might watch tonight because it is Slava. Would be interesting to hear what he says.

    I have no interest in debating the merits of Fox news either since like you say that's a debate that goes on forever, but I have to disagree with your assessment of Stewart. Whether most of his show's bits are written for him or not, he's still a very intelligent and funny person. I've seen him appear on many other shows, mostly news programs, where he's absolutely hilarious and can outsmart most of the hosts of those shows. A great example is when he was a guest on crossfire in 2004 I think it was, he was great and completely tore apart Tucker Carlson.

  5. Can't argue with that. Plus I never found Stewart to be all that funny. Quite possibly the most overrated television show of the last decade or so.

    While his views are undoubtedly liberal, Stewart isn't nearly the liberal activist that Fox News makes him out to be in their attempt to equate his influence and responsibility to that of a true news organization. He's not even close to being the overt propaganda machine that they are.

    He's also in no way overrated. He's easily the most influential and universally loved late night talk show host since Johnny Carson.

  6. Basically what you say in the first part is that this current Devils team doesn't score and so Larsson's improved passing won't generate any more points. I agree, if this team is the same team we have for the next 10 seasons, Larsson's ES points will never exceed 20/season. Your second point, well...no one here said he'd become an elite offensive talent, so not sure about what you are saying. Who said he'd be pushing 40+ points?

    First of all, I'm not saying that Larsson's improved passing won't generate anymore points JUST because the current team is offensively starved. I'm saying that he creates his offense via his skill in making the first pass out of the defensive zone and that specific skill is not one that where the offense generated from it will be given credit with an assist. I say this because:

    A - Throughout the NHL, the first pass out of the defensive zone does not frequently generate a goal where only 1 other pass was made before it was scored because the only way for that to occur is if the goal scored, is scored off the rush. Once a team starts to cycle in the offensive zone, 99% of the time there has been at least 2 passes made after the one a defenseman had made in order to vacate their defensive zone.

    and

    B - That this current Devils team does not score off the rush very often, so since that is a very rare occurrence, Larsson's outlet passes are EVEN LESS likely to end up on the stat sheet as an assist than if he were to be playing for another NHL team.

    As for never topping 20 ES points even if the team sucks, I think he's a bit better than that already. All but 2 of his points have come at ES this season, with the only 2 points not at ES being assists on empty net goals, but of those 16 ES points he has, 12 of them have come in the last 22 games and only 4 of them coming in the 22 games prior to that. 7 of his 14 assists are secondary, so it's impossible to say that he'll have just as many assists next year, but even still, 6 of his primary assists have come in the last 22 games, so prior to that, he only had 1 primary assist. If his primary assist and goals per game at ES continue, he should produce at minimum 20 ES points per season.

    However, I think he's progressed quite a bit this year and will continue to do so a bit more next season. Even if his secondary assist rate finally regresses next year, I think that with the way he's produced just over .25 primary assists per game in the last 22 GP, he could still put up 20 primary assists alone. With that, I think ~25-30 ES points will definitely be within reach for him next season. 

    Also, you were the one who seemed to disagree with my assessment of Larsson where I said that I didn't believe he'd ever become an elite offensive defenseman who tops ~30 points or so in any one season without ever getting time on the first PP unit. So if you weren't suggesting that he could ever top 40 points, what were you saying? In addition to that, many people were saying at the 2011 draft that he would be an elite defenseman with few, or any, flaws at all.

  7. I love how the caption says 'two reasons why the Jagr trade was a shocker' then Chere's first sentence says 'It came as no surprise the Devils traded right-winger Jaromir Jagr Thursday' :lol:

    In addition to that, one of the surprises was that LL traded Jagr to a team above us in the standing. Did anyone expect one of Carolina, Buffalo, Toronto or Columbus to trade for Jagr?

  8.  

    Thursday 2/26
    OHL
     
    Plymouth defeated Sarnia 6-3
    Connor Chatham RW: E, 2 PIM (Tripping)
    Season: 45 GP 16-19-35, E, 49 PIM
     
    -- 1 goal over his last 5 games after a 6 game scoring streak where he had 9 points. 10 points in his last 11 games.

    I'd rather see it phrased like this, lol.

  9. Even if  OI shooting% mattered here, you are making the same mistake that a lot of advanced stats people casually make (aside from the real expert guys): anything you think is a 'fluke' or luck 'this year' is just as likely to happen next year.

     

    Totally missed this the first time I read your post.

    So since it was extremely unlikely that his career 41.3% secondary assist rate at ES would be about the same every year outside of last season in the first place, it means it's still extremely unlikely to be just as high once again next year.

    This is not the equivalent of the 50/50 chance on any given coin flip, but more like how if you won 5 times in a row on the first 5 scratch off lottery tickets you ever buy, it wouldn't mean you're likely to win on the next one.

     

    And that is because what you like to call 'luck' is not a random event, but mathematics evening themselves out.

    On this: If it was a skill, you'd be able to consistently do better than the average rather than it being mathematics evening out since that would instead be the very definition of a random event in hockey.

  10. You are missing what I am saying. By your logic, there is no benefit to passing well because if you are not Crosby then you can't increase TMOIshooting%. Larsson passing more fluidly and with more confidence out of the defensive zone = good = more offense. Larsson is also going to play much more next year over the whole season. There is a direct correlation between his increased ice time (16:30 ES mins for the year/20-2 ES mins/g lately) and his in increase points. But I digress: it does not matter what the Devils on-ice shooting% is. He is passing better. That will lead to goals. Even if  OI shooting% mattered here, you are making the same mistake that a lot of advanced stats people casually make (aside from the real expert guys): anything you think is a 'fluke' or luck 'this year' is just as likely to happen next year. And that is because what you like to call 'luck' is not a random event, but mathematics evening themselves out.

    It's not that his outlet passes and passing skill in general won't generate offense. It's that goals aren't scored very often after 1 or 2 passes out of the defensive zone, especially so with this team where scoring off the rush is an extremely rare event. So that skill isn't likely to generate a ton of assists, secondary or otherwise. Due to this, I feel like it's still not likely he'll ever become a truly elite offensive force that consistently produces 40+ point seasons.

     

    His outlet passes are definitely a + or even ++ skill, but that's not enough in my opinion to create that kind of offense unless his play on the PP improves dramatically since that's the only way I think he'll have those 40+ point seasons. However, with Severson, Merrill and Gelinas all seemingly trusted more than Larsson as an option for PP QB, it's unlikely that Larsson will ever be a top option on the 1st PP unit. He's improved to the point where he'll probably start getting some PP time on the 2nd unit once Severson comes back, but that's not going to be enough to push his point totals all that much higher.

  11. So the latest from twitterverse is that CHI is looking to add a, specifically, "Skinner or Camalleri" type player.

    Cammy + Quennville for Kane? Heheheheheehheeh

    Oops wrong thread

    It sucks to lose someone as talented as Kane, especially when he was producing more than 1ppg and on track for 35 goals, which would be a career high.

    If they want a guy of Skinner or Cammalleri's caliber, they're going to have to give up their 1st and a quality prospect. I think they'd be better off picking up a guy who's struggling, but is seen as needing a change of scenery and then praying to the hockey Gods to take mercy on them and allow them to make it to the WCF and have Kane be ready by then.

    Maybe someone like Cody Hodgson is a guy they might be able to pick up for either a pick or prospect, rather than having to package both together for a more skilled player.

    He seems like a worthy project since most of his stats are still in line with what he's done previously. His offense is still disappointing this year, but if he had better luck this year, his ES PDO is 97.2, he'd probably have at least another 7 ES points. That would give him 16 points at ES and that's really not too far off what he produced in 2013 when he had a similar amount of TOI. Only having 1 secondary assist and that also being his sole point on the PP appears to be a significant in his lack of offense this season.

  12. Eh, I'm still kind of hoping we keep Bernier, Gomez and Tootoo. They seem to have found their place on this team.

    I agree with this unless someone is offering a 3rd rd pick or better for one of them. We have no one signed who can play RW next year, so it wouldn't be the worst thing to have Bernier and Tootoo as the 3rd and 4th line RW next year. Although, the ideal situation is to only kept Bernier and play him on the 4th line or just sign Tootoo as an extra forward since Bernier has 10 points more than Tootoo with one GP.

    Its like that normal guy who got punched in the head, and when he woke up the next morning, he was a fvcking genius... It's like a metamorphosis took place lol.

    This reminds of the Simpsons episode where they find out Homer had a crayon stuck in his brain and then once they remove it, he becomes super smart, lol.

  13. Unwarranted? hahahaha look at our roster and our farm dude lol come on. It's a country club and no young forwards to take over. I may be hard on him but to say any criticism is unwarranted... thats ridiculous

    I was referring specifically to your insistence that Lou would decline to trade Jagr since he's the worst GM in the NHL according to you.

    That being said, this is pretty much what I expected the return to be for Jagr. With the way trades had been made over the past couple weeks, there was no way Jagr wouldn't garner at least a 2nd. I wouldn't call it a steal, but it's definitely a solid return.

    As for going Florida misses the postseason, I don't think it'll matter much since I don't think Florida is good enough to win a series, so the worst case would be that the pick ends up being #45.

  14. A good GM would always open an ear to an offer, sure. If, let's say, Carolina offered up Jeff Skinner, Cam Ward, and a 1st rounder, I would do it. Why not.

    Ward is barely a league average goalie nowadays and Skinner isn't enough to turn around this offense. I don't think he's as good as some people pegged him to be after his rookie season, his shot totals are down almost 1shot per game this year and LW isn't the spot where we need help anyways. Only way we win that trade is if the pick turns into an elite forward.

    If the trade was Skinner+Faulk+2015 1st+Alex Nedeljkovic, then I'd probably do it, but I doubt Carolina would agree to that since it would gut their team just to acquire a quality netminder and they're even farther away from being a contender than we are.

    Clearly this thread broke the board for a couple hours :P

    Lol. I was pissed at first since I had yet to hit reply and figured I had lost my post, but luckily it survived somehow.
  15. This is absolutely retarded. First of all, learn to spell the guy's name right, it's Cory, not Corey. I don't understand how a fan of any team could struggle with spelling the name of one of it's stars and arguably its best player.

    On the idea of actually trading him, that's one of the worst ideas I've seen suggested on here for a few reasons. One being the fact that Kinkaid is not ready to be a #1 goalie and probably will never be.

    Another is that the trade would undoubtedly be loss for us because the market for goalies is extremely limited unless you're willing to take a team's current #1 goalie as part of the trade. On top of that, top goalies are rarely traded while in their prime and teams tend to not get a huge package in return for a goalie. The best established goalies that have been traded lately were Miller and Luongo.

    Miller was a rental and was traded for Jaroslav Halak, Chris Stewart, prospect William Carrier, St. Louis' 2015 1st and 2016 3rd. This is actually a pretty good package, but the picks were in drafts that were 1 and 2 years away, respectively, were guaranteed to be late in the rounds, Carrier was a 2nd rd pick having a just ok year in juniors producing at 1ppg and Chris Stewart is, well, Chris Stewart. I'm not sure a package similar to this does much to help the Devils in the short or long term even if they hit a home run with the 1st rd pick. At best it'd solve one problem, but have created another.

    Luongo was a trade that was just to get rid of his contract, so that's not really comparable.

    All other goalies traded in recent years were similar to the trade we made to acquire Schneider where the goalie had a limited number of GP. The returns for the goalies vary, but were mostly just for picks.

    Bobrovsky got the Flyers a 2nd and two 4th rd picks in the 2012 draft.

    Bishop was traded for Cory Conacher and a 2013 4th.

    Bernier traded for a 2013 2nd, Matt Frattin and Ben Scrivens.

    Fasth got a 2014 2nd and a 2015 3rd.

    Scrivens got a 2014 3rd.

    Varlamov was traded for a 1st and 2nd rd pick in the 2011 draft, but that was an absolute fleecing by Washington because even though Varlamov had an exceptional season last year with Colorado, he's still really a .918 save % goalie.

    None of the packages traded for those goalies are good enough to be able to consider trading Schneider. Only way it makes sense is if it occurs after the draft, we take an A+++ goalie prospect at some point or a team includes one in the trade, even then that's a giant risk since an A+++ goalie prospect today could end up as an AHL nobody tomorrow. Then if that were to occur, I'd want a package like Jordan Eberle AND Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in exchange for Schneider. Anything short of that is trading one problem for another.

  16. lol you take the bait EVERY. SINGLE. TIME and quote me EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. even though i told you countless time to just ignore it if you don't like it. Who's stupid really? I'm THRILLED to piss you off especially cause you get on my case no matter what im saying.

    So you're finally admitting that your incessant and unwarranted Lou hate is just you being a troll. Good on you for being honest.

  17. Wow.

    What does Horton's contact being uninsured mean?

    It means that Columbus was still responsible for paying his salary rather than an insurance company, which would have been the case had his contract been insured.

    It's less of an issue for Toronto since the team brings in a ton of money.

  18. sorry guys but im still failing to see and understand why a team being 7-8-9th or wtv can't talk contract and re-sign an upcoming UFA before the trade deadline? Oh right, it's because Lou has that rule that he's simply not doing it... yeah try to defend that now, Even Elias said he didnt like it.

    You alllll went around it focusing on the position we were which was not really the point lol

    You guys got to be in denial about Lou's stubbornness... all his stupid "rules", refusing to talk during the season, signing old vets, not giving up the 29th pick, bringing back old devils, terrible roster and coach management etc etc.... This alllllllllllll goes hand in hand following the same mentality and we all know it's a thing.

    So i really don't see why you guys keep making excuses for him and looking away about stuff that obviously fits the bill in term of decisions he's making out of stubbornness.

    You have no idea where Lou had discussed a new contract with Clarkson before the deadline. You can't just assume that he didn't and then decided against trading him solely due to wanting to discuss a new contract after the season.

    It's entirely possible that they discussed a new contract, but Clarkson said that he wanted to see what offers he'd get as a ufa. After which, despite the risk of losing Clarkson, Lou still chose to keep him because he thought he would increase the team's chances of making the playoffs as well as winning once they qualified.

  19. Of Larsson's 13 assists, 6 of them are secondary and that makes me a bit wary as to whether he will produce this well offensively going forward.

    I still think he's playing very well and will be a key piece of our defense corps for a long time. I'm just not sure he'll ever be a guy who will put up more than ~30 points per season rather than becoming the elite, all situation, 40+ points per season player he had been hyped up to be when he was drafted.

  20. Doubt Zids gets traded but i will bet any amount of money Jagr goes(most likely to chicago) and Ryder is either traded or waived

    No way Ryder gets waived, it'd be pointless. Since it's assumed Jagr will be traded, we're going to need someone to fill his spot at RW. So either Ryder gets traded or he'll finally get back into the lineup once Jagr is gone.

    As for Zidlicky, I wouldn't mind that much if we re-signed him on another 1 year deal so long as he's willing to sign for less money than he's getting this year.

    However, I'd much rather see what we could get for him in a trade since it's looking like the going rate for a decent defenseman is between a 1st and 2nd rd pick. Zidlicky can still pass very well, QB a PP unit and has put up a decent point total so far. I think he's worth at the very least a low 2nd, but I think he could bring back a B prospect on top of that or even as much as a conditional 1st if he goes to a team that's a lock to make the playoffs.

  21. I mentioned recently that it looked like Cammalleri might hit 30 goals after he was struggling for a while there, but now I'm starting to think it's a sure thing. He's been on a roll lately, even if he's been helped by 2 ENG, iirc.

  22. No 30 someodd year old FAs. I don't care if they are 31 or 35. Absoutely not.

    We need young, fast players. Not Justin Williams.

    I would bring back Ruutu though. Seems to have been a pretty solid depth guy. I just wouldn't plug him in the top six. Tootoo should stay too. Grandfather those guys in but we shouldn't be signing any "new" older players.

    We're going to need someone to play RW next year and I'm not sure there's many under 30 players out there in the FA market this year. As long as we don't sign any 30+ players to deals longer than 2-3 years, it'll be fine.

    I'm not saying that lot should go nuts and sign 3+ guys that are 30+, but it won't kill us to sign 1 or 2 guys to short term deals as stopgap solutions while we wait for a our, hopefully quite talented, 1st and 2nd picks in the draft this year to develop into reliable NHL players.

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