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nessus

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Everything posted by nessus

  1. I really liked Lambos and Ceulemans for the Isles’ pick, but now it looks like both will probably be gone by that pick. It also looked like Raty could have been a possibility there a couple weeks ago. Such a bummer that the Isles beat the Bruins. I am still holding out hope for Svozil, who I watched extensively at the WJC this past winter. He is someone I see as a very solid second pairing defenseman, which is far from a guarantee from a late first rounder. I also really like Heimosalmi, who would incidentally fill a need at RD. It would be ideal if someone like Pinelli or Othmann dropped, but I’m not feeling too optimistic. You never know with this draft though, you could even see one of Lysell or Rosen falling to the late part of the first.
  2. This is the way I see it too. If it isn't Power, Clarke, or Hughes, it has got to be Beniers. I like Edvinsson's ceiling, but it's so tough to tell what his chance of getting there is.
  3. He hasn’t demonstrated much upside on offense to this point. Doesn’t mean he won’t get there but it really isn’t there just yet. I feel like you want someone with more offense and sky high potential if you are taking a defenseman in the top 5. I think he will be a fine player though, but it’s not like he’s some shutdown machine. I also like “he’s not Dahlin but he is probably better than Philip Broberg” ”he’s not Nicklas Lidstrom, but he’s better than Matt Tennyson. Somewhere in between”
  4. This is a total Lou move
  5. The thing with Power is he's one of the few players who is a relatively safe bet in a draft year that is otherwise totally unpredictable. He played essentially a full NCAA season this year, and has been impressive at the World Championship tournament. A lot of these other players had shortened seasons or played in leagues that make them tougher to evaluate. I would be very surprised if he makes it past 2 for that reason. Although, I have to admit that it would be really awesome to have him in the organization.
  6. It's still Clarke for me. But I would be very happy with Hughes, Power, Beniers, or Eklund too. Clarke has that quality where he sees the game multiple steps ahead, a quality of high end players. He has so much control in the offensive zone, and is the type of player to really dictate play when he's on his game. I think that's where the Karlsson comparisons come from. On top of that, he's got an outstanding skill set from top to bottom without any major deficits in his game. He had an impressive season in Slovakia (men's league), with the highest p/g of any defenseman on his team. He settled in there much better than his older brother, Devils forward prospect, Graeme Clarke, who ended up having a solid season in Binghamton. If Luke Hughes is really supposed to be better than Quinn, then I can't really argue with that. Luke has the tools to make him an absolutely elite defenseman if he can put it all together. He would be great for this team with his elite skating. I would be hyped to have him too. Eklund, in my opinion, is the most underrated player in this draft. Hard to find someone who has played so well in the SHL in his draft season recently. Eklund did it during a crazy COVID season where he fought through injuries. I like Beniers because he is a workhorse with high end (although not elite) talent. He can play LW or C. Smart and complete, but also seems like a high energy guy. Can't really go wrong with someone like him, even if he doesn't end up a top line point per game kind of guy. Johnson, Guenther, and Wallstedt are all good players, but I'm doubting the Devils are targeting them. I see Edvinsson as a reach, even though he is ranked pretty high up on many lists out there. He needs to develop his game a lot more before we can see what he's fully capable of, so I wouldn't take that risk if I were the Devils. It would only be in the circumstance where Power, Hughes, and Clarke are off the board that it would even be a consideration. In which case, just take the top forward in the draft.
  7. I think Beniers will be taken at 1 or 2, so if the Devils are targeting a defenseman, Power, Clarke, or Hughes should be available. No Edvinsson please.
  8. nessus

    Playoffs

    Carey Price playing like a 10 million dollar goalie!
  9. Also worth noting that the pick the Devils got from the Oilers for Kulikov becomes a 3rd if the Oilers win their series. Hoping for the other scenario to work out though.
  10. I don't want to let my Devils bias get in the way (even though Luke Hughes isn't even a part of the organization yet), but I have to admit, the whole thing sounds pretty silly. "The Devils will be forced into taking him." Based on what source, an interview where Jack said he would like it if the Devils drafted his brother? The Hughes brothers tend to support each other. What else would Jack have said in an interview when asked if he hopes the Devils take Luke? "Nah, not really. He's alright, but I'm still hoping for Owen Power actually." Has anyone else heard anything about Luke having any major character issues? I would be more willing to believe if I had heard about character issues significant enough to avoid drafting him. I'm not sure who it was she talked to that didn't have anything good to say about him, but it clearly wasn't the scouts that Bob McKenzie talked to that resulted in a consensus top 5 pick in his draft rankings. Maybe I'm simply not doing enough "recon" this year. But jokes aside, I will keep this in mind as a data point as it gets closer to the draft and more info comes out about these players. Maybe by then, we will get a better idea of any "character issues" these prospects may have.
  11. I hope he recovers well from surgery, and his injury doesn’t have a long term effect on that bomb of a shot that he has. Very excited that he will likely be in NJ/Utica soon. I was hoping to get him over here as soon as possible, because I think it will be best for his development.
  12. That 2023 draft is going to be something else. Michkov and Bedard each look like they're good enough to have been drafted first overall in any draft class since 2016. It's crazy that they're in the same draft class.
  13. Odds for each draft position: 1st: 10.6% 2nd: 10.5% 4th: 12.3% 5th: 44.0% 6th: 22.5% I'll take it: 77.5% chance of drafting in the top 5, and roughly a 1/3 chance of drafting in the top 4. Also, Vancouver has an 11.5% chance of drafting in the top 2 (compared to the Devils' 21.1%). @mfitz804is right about the restrictions on winning the lottery, it wouldn't affect the winner this year. Still an odd year to win though, because a few of the prospects expected to go in the top 5-10 don't exactly seem like high ceiling guys, more so high floor (Beniers, Edvinsson, arguably Power). Then after Hughes and Clarke, there looks to be a bunch of higher upside/lower floor guys in the teens to twenties range. Could be good if one of those guys drops to the Isles' pick.
  14. I’m still a BPA guy, particularly when it comes to early first rounders. And with that in mind, Clarke is still my favorite player in this draft. He’s so advanced in the offensive zone for his age. I would take him first overall. As of right now, my second favorite player is actually William Eklund. I wonder whether he would be discussed more favorably if he were a couple inches taller. I think Eklund is such a smart player, and he really seems to be proficient in nearly all aspects of his game. Lots of teams are probably regretting skipping on Lundell last draft, and I could see the same thing happening with Eklund this year. I really have him neck and neck with Luke Hughes because Hughes is really tough to evaluate. It would make sense for the Devils to target defense in this draft, but if Power, Clarke, and Hughes are off the board, I would rather them take Eklund here and then hope for one of the next tier defensemen to be available at the Isles’ pick. I feel that Edvinsson is a slight reach in the top 6. There should still be some good options at around 20: Svozil, Lambos, Ceulemans, to name a few.
  15. Can’t wait ‘til next camp When Dano tries to pronounce Mukhamadullin
  16. Nice, now we just need Vancouver to pick up 3 (or 5 if we beat the Flyers) points over their 8 remaining games, and we are 4th from the top, pre-lottery
  17. Nice, Wings and Jackets to OT. We want a Jackets win. In that case, the Devils can’t catch either team. Red Wings kept it exciting by tying it up late. EDIT: Flyers and Caps also to OT. Flyers might still have something left in the tank in case we need to lose to them.
  18. The Wings won in regulation tonight. If the Devils lose the next 2 games (and Vancouver doesn't totally blow it until the end), they will finish third from the bottom, going into the draft lottery with the 4th best odds. I would definitely be okay with this. I think that would put the Devils in a very good position to get one of Clarke or Hughes.
  19. Another thing that I find interesting is the shooting percentage argument (again, I will reiterate that I am not in the "trade Zacha/Zacha isn't actually getting better" camp). Zacha has shown early in his development that he has got a very good shot. Quick release, accurate, lots of power. In the entire organization, you've got Foote, Holtz, and maybe Sharangovich who can shoot like him (am I missing anyone?). But you would never know that if you had only ever watched the past couple of seasons. He much more frequently would be off target, miss a tap-in, attempt low percentage shot, etc. Part of the reason his shooting percentage is higher (IMO) is because his shot quality is so much better this year. It actually isn't that unreasonable to think that someone like him could settle at >10%. The difference is probably close to negligible when you factor in the idea that he's on an upward trajectory for how many shots he gets off per game. Think about the two goals from the recent Bruins game. Halak did not even stand a chance on the OT winner with the way Zacha roofed that puck in so close. And the power play goal was a Kovalchuk-level bomb, even if it was slightly deflected. @Guadana brings up a good point that you do not need every player to be a line driver when you've got several effective line drivers already. Zacha clearly excels in areas that some of these players do not. Too many similar kinds of players won't get you very far. But I definitely agree that he should be a winger from now on. Maybe Boqvist can develop into the player to take the 3C role and can move up in the event of injuries.
  20. I’m just as much of a Pavel Zacha supporter as anyone, but I do think there’s something worth discussing there. The idea is that some people are saying that Zacha could be at an all time high value-wise, and that he may not be likely to repeat this performance next season. His shooting percentage is very high, and supposedly his on ice goal differential is the worst on the team (according to some other Cordell tweet I saw). As mentioned in that article, there are a lot of statistics that point toward him having a weaker season than his points suggest, which would indicate that future seasons are not likely to go as well as this one has. So the question becomes: do you cash in on him now in order to bring in some help on the blue line, or better yet package him with something else to get a really high level player? As much as I like Zacha, I will admit that he isn’t great in the defensive zone. He’s not quite the defensively responsible Zajac replacement that he was branded as earlier in his career. But stats aside, I think we can all agree that the eye test shows that he has not only found some consistency, but that he has really taken his game to another level this year - regardless of whether that’s predominantly in the offensive zone. I can acknowledge that he has got some aspects of his game that still need work. And I agree that his shooting percentage is probably higher than it will be in future seasons. But I would rather hang onto him and see if he can further blossom as an offensive talent next season. And at the same time, he can work on being a more effective player in all 3 zones, over a normal season, with regular practices, and under a coach who has helped him achieve sustained success for the first time in his career. Last season, he wasn’t all that effective in any zone. Who is to say he can’t improve other areas of his game as well?
  21. Alright, we don't have to win every game. Save some for next year, boys. I really don't want to finish ahead of Detroit and have them take Clarke.
  22. Whatever happens, please no OT. That could end up pushing both of our picks in the wrong direction.
  23. 2 assists for Holtz tonight, both on the power play. Actually, both times, it was Greer, Holtz, and Thompson connecting for goals. 1g and 1a for each of Thompson and Greer in a 6-3 loss.
  24. I’m not getting too bent out of shape about the late wins. There’s not even a consensus top 5 in this draft. It has been so much tougher to scout this group. It’s not like last year where you would want to guarantee a top 3 spot to get a player like Stutzle. Looking at the worst case scenario here...you get Luke Hughes instead of Brandt Clarke? Or vice versa? And if both of them are gone, you get one of the top 3 forwards in the draft or Owen Power. Maybe it would be different if this was a normal season, and these players had an opportunity to separate themselves from the rest of the pack if they truly were a cut above. If we were talking about 2022 or 2023, that’s a totally different story. But at the end of the day, you’ve got to stop drafting at the top if the team is ever going to turn around. If these recent wins end up marking the start of that process, maybe this isn’t the worst year for it.
  25. Jack’s post game interview essentially sums up my thoughts on why I appreciate these late season wins. He seemed to think very positively of this group of guys and is on board for this being a process with some growing pains. But I think you need to see some results to inspire that kind of confidence in one of the future leaders of the team. Our draft position might suffer a bit, but if we end up picking 6th, it’s not out of the question that we could end up with one of those top 3 defensemen, if that’s what Fitzgerald is targeting. Anyway, great game. Nice to see Zacha finding some consistency and continuing to play with confidence. If he has turned a corner in his game (and I really think he has), he will be an important part of this team moving forward. With how good Bratt has looked, and a healthy Nico, that line should could have some big time success next season.
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