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Guadana

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Posts posted by Guadana

  1. 1 hour ago, Satans Hockey said:

     

    What are the stats for odd man rushes that are scored on against us? Obviously 3.41 a game isn't bad when looking at that chart but if opposing teams are scoring something like 2 goals on 3.41 rushes against us than it makes it feel like we are a lot worse at odd man rushes against then we actually are. 

    We are bad, but goalies should stop the pucks. VV is awful in HDSV%. Both aren’t facing a lot, they are facing below average load. 
     

    1 hour ago, jagknife said:

    Even with Holtz progression, I would personally like to keep Toffoli to keep 3x lines with good performers. Less pressure on Holtz to HAVE to fill in and allows flexibility 

    I would love to save Toffoli, but it’s a his chance to sign the deal of his life. He is old and he already won the cup. If he will agree on 2-3 years deal, I will be excited. 

    • Like 1
  2. 26 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    So with the cap projected to be about $87.7 million for 2024-25, Devils aren't in bad shape:

    About $20 million to work with.

    UFAs:  Toffoli, Tierney, Miller, Smith, Nosek  (I'd happily take Toffoli back but depends on what he's looking for...if Holtz can continue to develop, Fitz may have to roll the dice that Holtz can permanently join the Top 6.  Miller would make for nice D-depth but with Nemec now about to get on-the-job training, can't imagine Miller would want to be a 7th-type)

    RFAs:  McLeod, Mercer, Schmid  (Curious to see what McLeod would want.  Dawson appears to getting his season back on track...10 points over his last 12 GP)

    Some Utes/depth guys too who are up for renewals too.

    Basically, depending on who's actually available (and if there's a guy who actually makes real SENSE), IF Fitz decides to add payroll in the form of a goalie this offseason, he can probably pull it off.

    For those who are curious, if Fitz ever decided to buy VV out this offseason, the dead hits aren't brutal...$1,466,667 for 2024-25, and $966,667 for 2025-26.  I'd be surprised if it ever came to that, more just posting that info for those wondering.

     

    And the above is not me waving any white flags on the 2023-24 season...Devils are still right there, as far as most of the Metro goes...only the Rangers have run away and hid.  More just showing with the announced cap projections, Fitz should have the means to addre$$ some of this team's issues.  Will be tricky to make major in-season moves (especially if he has to take on any money), but he should have some flexibility this offseason.


    I believe Fitz will sign Toffoli(less chances) or will find another vet(more chances). Holtz is the fourth Devil in 10 years to score 10 goals in his first 50 games after Bratt, Sharangovich and Mercer. But I dont think they will rush him as top-6 forward.

    Mcelod should start to talk about 2.8+. He is now looking like a ok to solid third line center and he is playing meaningful role. I would wait  arond 3 mil for now, will see how he will produce.

    God, I hope, he will sign or trade good goalie on a reasonable deal. Anyway Devils have huge cap hit to find vet for top-9 and for gaolie and not hurt to the future signs of young players.

  3. 1 hour ago, NJDfan1711 said:

    There is no way we are third best in the league when it comes to allowing odd man rushes.  I don't care what that chart says - whoever compiled it probably doesn't know what an odd man rush is.  My eye test has shown me multiple odd man rushes given up, game after game after game.  We aren't better than 30 other teams when it comes to that.  Agree to disagree I suppose, but I can't even really take that seriously because it's just not true.  Anyone with a set of working eyeballs can see it. 

    I think this is a good point.  The old adage, "coaches coach and players play". You have to wonder if the players just aren't as good as we thought, or if they're just executing poorly.  To me it's the latter. These players being as young as they are and most of them not having one cup or really having much. Playoff experience you'd still expect them to be hungry, but I'm wondering if they really thought going into this season things would just come easy for them and then sort of be able to Coast into an easy playoff berth.

    Clearly that's not the case and I think they really need to buckle down and give a full effort each night, which starts with being prepared and coming out to start each game and not giving up the first goal like we have so often and so early. 

    To me it's just an intention to detail problem, which thankfully I think can be rectified. The leaders on this team like Nico, Palat, and even Meier to a degree really need to step up. It sucks that Dougie is out now but I would look to him for that leadership too. 

    Other site. Only three guys with 10! games ahead of him, other played less. It’s about rushes to be true.

    yes, every man who says that Devils are making MORE mistakes that turn into rushes - making mistakes. You too. Your eyes test is working well. 
    They do, but they are on the positive side of the league. Some of rushes are really bad, but goalie is for stopping some pucks at least. And our forwards aren’t using their chances like they should. They had much more opportunities.

    They are 13th in HDCA and 18th in HDSA, that means if something is going on - it is more danger per situation, but amount of this more dangerous situations is ok. 

    People wants to fix defense and defense should be better, but goalies and missed opportunities are bigger problems. 0C9DCF6B-5BFD-45BE-89A6-0679BD7F9F17.thumb.png.8643b084801382f8cd9d5e91fce4a1c5.png

    • Like 1
  4. 1 hour ago, NJDfan1711 said:

    There is no possible way this is true. I don't care what metric you are using. We give up odd man rushes like no one else.  We definitely aren't "good" at giving them up, we're not even medicare.  We're downright bad.  

    Nope, we are not. We are not very good or great, but everything is fine with this. Goaltending svck, that's all from something special.  Goals against? Really bad. 

     

    If You feal different than sorry, you have high expectations, average level of league is different. Summing isn't hard task.  I just don't feel badly when I saw our mistakes. Because I saw how we lost our chances a lot. 

     

    Sorry, but thats just fact.

    On other hand if Devils will fix goaltending at least to the average level (now Devils are 88.5%sv 5 on 5, should be 90.7%) and will start to use their chances in offensive zone, they will outcrush the league. 

    Z_yAUmGvx2Q.jpg

     

    There are plenty resources that show it. And MY eye test approve it. So like every person in the world I trust my personal own eye test, but im taling with grain of sault. But. Stats from different resources are helping me to understand that Devils are not bad in defensive zone. Yes, they are making more mistakes than they should, but summ of this mistakes isn't dramatic at all. 

     

    When They will start to dominant again, it will takes from what they have now, may be better goalie, may be better performance from goalie we are having. It will make a job for our forwards easier. Healthy roster would help too. We were 7-1-2 in 2021/22 when Dougie, Nico and Jack were on the ice.

    And we  are 10-4-1 this season when Jack, Timo and/or Nico were on the ice.

  5. 1 hour ago, Satans Hockey said:

     

    That Blues team had the worst record in the league in early January before they turned it around. We are 20th in the overall league standings and only 3 points out of a wild card spot and 3 points out of 3rd place in our division. They don't have to remotely do anything as hard as the Blues did that year. 

    No no no no no no noooo. no. Time to move on. After 20 games, injured Jack and/or Nico in the half, behind 3 straight win after 1 disappointing loss in the game where Devils overshoted opponents in three times, and in 3-5 points away from playoff spot. With 60 games in a hand. 

    This is a time. Who is the best prospect? Celebrini? Whats about trading Hall back, we need in another 1OA. 

    • Haha 3
  6. Marino and Siegs could play better for real. Anyway Devils are good in HDCA and odd man rushes against. Not the bestbut average or better. Sv% is awful. SJ is bad team, but not 16SF team. Ofcourse mistakes are there, but nothing special in compare with other team.

    With just a couple of saves or even with one it could be much better game. Lindy made stupid decision to use Schmid in back to back after load from flyers.

     

    I think Devils should find defenseman to ease the pressure in Siegs and Marino. And of course goalie.

    Vejmelka, Lankinen, Allen, Detroit goalies(3) are better than what we have now. They are not game changers but everything we need is average or even little below average goalie now. All of them are having 91%+ in 5 on 5. Vanecek has below 89%, Schmid too. But I believe Schmid will be better if Ruff will continue to limit his starts.

    DeSmith is a good option too, but I don't think VAN will trade solid backup in the year they are trying to compete for playoff spot. 

    Gibson isn't the option, he is old, with awful history of injuries, three back to back bad seasons and awful deal, its literally Schneider 2.0 for the Devils. 29 good games doesn't change his status. Markstrom is better, but much older, reason why I'm not happy to deal for him. Crawford and Bernier are fresh in my mind. At least his deal will not hurt us next season. 

    I know people want Swayman or wolf, but teams will not deal them. Samsonov and Kahkonen could be an option, but questionable. Toronto may want to protect themselves from risk to bet on a young goalie only(Woll), and Kahkonen isn't showing consistent to be even 1B. ButI would easily be happy if Fitz will want to try to use three goalie. 

    Reimer/Lyon/Husso? Its interesting what Yzya wants for them, I think he is sitting and waiting for good offer. Goaltending is bad in recent years. 

     

     Team is fighting with injuries and shows a lot in offensive end. They will figure it out, if leaders will stay healthy. Its not an easy road like it was year ago, but year ago everybody were healthy. 

    • Like 2
  7. 28 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    Even with retention, Devils will be taking on Markstrom’s Age 33/34 through Age 35/36 seasons…and since the start of last season he has not been good.  I can’t see Fitz going this route at all.

    Yeah, I’m not waiting for that. I see Lankinen, Allen and Vejmelka as good trade option. I don’t believe Devils will use good assets - they are contending team and their contending window needs in talents on ELC or cheap bridge deals. And like I said before - average goalies is enough material to win if you have strong team. No one will sell good young goalie, no one will sell good starter. Playoff teams wants to compete and don’t want to stay without good second goalie in important moment. Gibson is oldish, has history of injuries, is on the long deal. Marsktrom is old. I hope Fitz will not risk with them. Lankinen, Allen and Vejmelka wouldn’t be expensive but had decent results on bad teams. Vejmelka isn’t really good this year, but I think he, as Hill, will feeling himself better here. Overall he shouldn’t be expensive. 
     

    If Detroit will start to fall, they will trade one of their goalie Lyon or Husso, interesting case is Toronto, who doesn’t believe in Samsonov now and will try to find other option for cheaper goalie and add some Forward too. 

  8. 3 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    Yeah, Fitz really wants to take on Markstrom’s $6 million cap hit for this year and the next two as well.  This ain’t happenin’.

    May be he is okay with big retention. This isn’t what I’m waiting for. In reality I’m waiting for firing Rogalski. I like what Utica goalie coach did, young goalies did well there.

    • Like 1
  9. Devils faced two huge problems (three) with old goalies. Crawford and Bernier(and Schneider). Bernier should be 1A 1B goalie and Devils literally were the same as they were in few games this season - good team with no goalies and injuries. 
    I don’t think Fitz wants to deal with 33-34 yo goalie on a three years deal with injury history.

    But will see.

  10. 1 hour ago, HughesCorporation said:

    General trade question (not suggesting and not starting a war!), since Holtz and now Mercer have been heating up, if there was a trade brewing for a "Real" goalie, and one of either Holtz or Mercer had to go the other way who would you rather let go?

    A ) Holtz

    B ) Mercer

     

    no one. Blues won with Binnington,  Vegas with Hill, Colorado with Kuemper, Pens with Murray. We dont need to trade future top six players for good goalie. We should find average or hot goalie, its enough. No one will trade Vasilevsky in his 20's for you.

  11. 1 hour ago, Lateralous said:

    I don't mean this to be snarky but should I put much stock in any chart that shows Edmonton with 3 of the top 6 D in anything?     

    And you can see that SV% isnt the reason of "defensive system" only, because in different teams different goalies have different results.

     2023-11-296_35_00PM.thumb.png.ca7e1688f056b4d27c1694f4d0a1419d.png

  12. 1 hour ago, Lateralous said:

    I don't mean this to be snarky but should I put much stock in any chart that shows Edmonton with 3 of the top 6 D in anything?     

    They have the same problem with bad goaltending.  They are really bad as Vanecek. And Ekholm is really good defensive defenseman. And eye test always is a first thinng, advenced stats is a helping tool only. Because for example Bahl has great stats but its because huge pressure is on Marino - he is a man defensive core piece there. 
    And Hughes is third pair defenseman - reason why he is playing against weaker competition, but still he is doing very good against them. It was a huge problem with his game in NCAA, he made tonns of mistakes, played 4th role in defensive forechek and tryed to be first breakaway option. But Ruff and coaches simplify his game and asking to focus on puck battles and positioning. He is growing from game to game and its great to have so much talented player who is in miles away from what he was doing even one year ago. 
    Overall this charts represented by defensemen from teams with good defensive systems and by very talented defensemen like Dumolin, Gavrikov, Hughes(who is compensating by positioning, stick work and decision making), Faber etc.

     

     

    Снимок экрана 2023-11-29 в 6.30.39 PM.png

  13. 2023-11-294_04_53PM.thumb.png.b63ceb2d7a0e9bb35d311f0d51040704.png2023-11-294_09_15PM.thumb.png.cdc6892e5a3af128af31c01d368561c6.png

     

    Luke is #4 defenseman in the league in shots against per 60 - to the net, missed and blocked. #18 in goal chances against per 60. It does mean he made bigger mistakes when the shots goes on. But overall its a great result even if he plays against weaker competition than Marino or Siegenthaler.

  14. Luke is playing pretty well defensively this season. 

     

    2023-11-262_08_09AM.thumb.png.3c657d05766a63a367aadfd7cfed77aa.png

    2023-11-262_08_47AM.thumb.png.36e471d7bec665c8c0b5937dd45b6684.png

    2023-11-262_09_41AM.thumb.png.b6cf491a4a460364847de51598f24ede.png

     

    Im ready to give Nemec an opportunity to play and send Dougie to rest. On my taste he isnt looking 100% ready and its not like we cant play without him now. Luke is running 1st pp.

  15. On 10/31/2023 at 3:29 PM, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    The funny thing is that you just KNOW they're thinking "Look at Mercer, he hasn't put up any points yet, maybe the Devils are ready to give up on him and move him for a guy who's ready to help them win RIGHT NOW!  Good deal for both sides!"  No dummies, you're not getting a very promising 22-year-old for a guy who's not only nothing special, but comes with a sh!tty cap hit to boot.  Give up the "Anderson to the Devils" nonsense already!

    I don't have Mercer has an untouchable necessarily, but the only way that I'd even begin to consider trading him would be for an obvious upgrade in net, who's on a reasonable cap hit for what he'd bring...such a deal would likely involve VV (to clear cap space) and Dawson (who will be making a good chunk more next season), so that the Devils could take on the hit in 2024-25 and beyond.  And given the Devils' current cap situation, I'm not sure such a deal would be able to happen until the offseason anyway.

    To be clear, to suggest that trading Mercer in a deal for a goalie has nothing to do with his slow start; like I've said elsewhere, even with some concerns (such as lack of shots on goal), I think he is going to be fine and I think he'll eventually start to provide some offense. 

    I'd prefer that Mercer sticks around myself, but if Fitz decides that he needs to pursue a goalie who's under contract elsewhere, he's going to have to give to get.  There's quite a few "no way" players locked up here who won't be made available in deals, and others who might be available but who aren't the kinds of players that other teams would want to deal an above-average goalie for.  Mercer would probably be the prime trade chip. 

    Sorry for being late.

    From the past SC wins, teams did it with Vasilevsky(twice) and Hill, Kuemper, Murray, Binnington. Devils dont need to lose Mercer for goalie. Mercer is 25-30 goal scorer in NHL, young and shifty. Not consistent, but he is young. Teams spending tonns of assets for players like him(Hagel for example), goalies are cheaper and streaky.  Guy like Hellebyuck couldnt really help to his team in play off. Bobrovskiy was great once but his deal was an anchor mostly. 
    I believe its enough to deal for Vejmelka\Ingram and we dont need to spend Mercer for that. 

    More over, Devils have huge window (Jack is so young, Nemec and Luke and very young too), they need offensive depth for years. They dont need to lose Mercer for goalie who would be good(if he will) for 2-4 years. Reason why I hated Hellebyuck trade(thanks, God, there are no more of this on the horizon). Im okay to invest something in Saros(he isnt really good btw this season), but again  - something reasonable. Because in modern NHL you need hot goalie, not a great goalie.

    But I think Fitz should invest in goalie market. VV is really bad. Schmid shouldnt be the savior. 

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