GDT: Islanders @ NJ Devils 1PM 11/26/11

[LucifersDog]

Be happy Marty played well.

[Marv4Life]

It's been nearly two years and Kovy STILL hasn't been used properly. Holik said it best: you need to find chemistry with him. What's the point of signing a guy for 100mil if you're not going to build around him? You need a top center and you need a PP quarterback. And stop trying to make him something that he's not. He's a sniper not a playmaker.

[EdgeControl]

with about 2+ minutes left in the second period kovy had his pocket picked once again which led to a break, he fell down on the ice near the bench and stayed there looking down for a few seconds before climbing over the board. dont know if he is hurting, exhausted, or disgusted. probably all 3

[Triumph]

It's been nearly two years and Kovy STILL hasn't been used properly. Holik said it best: you need to find chemistry with him. What's the point of signing a guy for 100mil if you're not going to build around him? You need a top center and you need a PP quarterback. And stop trying to make him something that he's not. He's a sniper not a playmaker.

Except that Atlanta had neither of these things for most of the years that Kovalchuk was there. He played with Marc Savard, who was not considered anything when he arrived to Atlanta, for a year and a half. Okay, so I will grant Savard is a top center. Then he played with Todd White, Rich Peverley, and Nikolai Antropov. Fine players, all of them, but I wouldn't confuse any of them for a #1 center.

Let's see about a power play quarterback - top scoring defenseman on Atlanta from 03 on:

03: Yannick Tremblay

04: Frantisek Kaberle

06: Jaroslav Modry

07: Greg De Vries

08: Tobias Enstrom

09: Ron Hainsey

10: Tobias Enstrom

Would you consider any of these guys besides Enstrom a top offensive defenseman? Of course not.

Kovalchuk IS a playmaker, it's the most underrated aspect of his game, and it's something we didn't see very much from him last year. He's still shooting plenty. The pucks will start going in for him.

Edited November 27, 2011 by Triumph

[njdevsftw]

We haven't seen him be a reliable 40+ goal scorer HERE yet.

In 125 games as a Devil, he has 45 goals and 55 assists for 100 points. Dating back to last season, it's 35 goals and 38 assists in 98 GP, with a -30 rating. No matter how one chooses to spin it, this is not what ANYONE was expecting when the Devils re-signed him.

Did you ever stop for a minute to think about why his sudden lack of production "randomly" occurred at the exact same time as he changed clubs? He reliably put up 1 point pr game playing for a far inferior team 8 years running in Atlanta, yet is unable to sustain that same production here. did you consider for a moment that this phenomenon might have other reasons then Kovy randomly starting sucking/not caring. Could this in fact be related to his new environment somehow? Be it coaching style, linesmates, his role on the team, playing RW instead of his natural LW etc etc..?

In an interview with Kovy last year after the MacLean debacle, he clearly stated that he was glad the RW "experiment" was over, and hoped it would never happen again. And yet here we are a few months later, back with him on the RW.

It's been nearly two years and Kovy STILL hasn't been used properly. Holik said it best: you need to find chemistry with him. What's the point of signing a guy for 100mil if you're not going to build around him? You need a top center and you need a PP quarterback. And stop trying to make him something that he's not. He's a sniper not a playmaker.

Completely agree with this. It's truly puzzling how they sign a point-pr-game $100M LW sniper and then put him on a line with mediocre players or on the RW and expect his production to go unchanged.

While Kovy can and will produce points pretty much on his own, he will certainly perform better if he has a quality playmaker on his line. He's played with quality players like Savard, Heatley, Hossa and Kozlov in the past. The Devils should be able to match the talent of Kozlov at least with Elias or Zajac. He's to easy to shut down if he's out there with JJ/Palmieri in my opinion, as it's so obvious where the shot is coming from. Most of the time a line like this will result in him trying to become the playmaker instead of the finisher. (And while he's an excellent passer, that's not why we brought him in.)

Edited November 27, 2011 by njdevsftw

[Amberite]

Some problems:

We haven't seen him be a reliable 40+ goal scorer HERE yet.

In 125 games as a Devil, he has 45 goals and 55 assists for 100 points. Dating back to last season, it's 35 goals and 38 assists in 98 GP, with a -30 rating. No matter how one chooses to spin it, this is not what ANYONE was expecting when the Devils re-signed him. His offensive production this season (13 points in 17 GP is NOT a PPG pace BTW) is even less impressive when you factor in the insane amount of minutes he's been logging.

I don't know how anyone can't be disappointed with Kovy to this point. Even if you wanted to be incredibly diplomatic and say that his good moments and contributions are about a wash with the bad ones, I think we were all expecting a much better ratio of good-to-bad than that.

Everyday I hope it will get better with him, I really do, and I know that every last Devils fan, from the Kovy fanboys who will bendover backwards to make new excuses for him to his harshest critics are united on that front. But God I hope I see it soon, because he is becoming harder to take by the game.

Sorry but when the guy is shooting at 6.9%, which is less than half of his career percentage, and has 4 goals, it tells me that by rights he should have at least 8 right now. I'm not going to fault a guy on bad luck. He's PLAYING at a point-per-game pace this year, even if his actual stats are a bit short. You may find that to be flawed logic, but there it is.

As for the rest, in his first season with us he put up 27 points in 27 games. Last year, NOONE did well under MacLean, and once Lemaire took over, he was back to his normal pace. Make no doubt about it - Kovalchuk IS a point-per-game+ player, even on this team, even out of his normal position, even with "mediocre" linemates.

Again, the problem is that everyone here expected Kovalchuk to be some sort of messiah that would be this all-around perfect player. I also think many people set an unrealistic expectation of the offense that he brings, expecting him to dismantle the opposition defense on every shift. Everyone got caught up in the hype of getting one of the most sought after UFAs in NHL history. Kovalchuk is not Crosby, he's not even Ovechkin (although lo and behold, even he can have some problems as we're seeing). People need to get it through their heads that even the best forwards in the league make tons of mistakes, have off nights, and just simply aren't going to create offense on every shift they're out. I would think people would realize that after having seen Parise play for so long.

Edited November 27, 2011 by Amberite

[njdevsftw]

Except that Atlanta had neither of these things for most of the years that Kovalchuk was there. He played with Marc Savard, who was not considered anything when he arrived to Atlanta, for a year and a half. Okay, so I will grant Savard is a top center.

Kovalchuk IS a playmaker, it's the most underrated aspect of his game, and it's something we didn't see very much from him last year. He's still shooting plenty. The pucks will start going in for him.

The PP units in Atlanta had ELITE talents like Heatley/Hossa as well even though they may not have had a top tier D-man QB, there was plenty of creativity on the ice. And most importantly, there were other serious offensive threats that could shoot the puck, so it wasn't just a case of shutting down Kovy to defend successfully.

[NJDevs4978]

Sorry but when the guy is shooting at 6.9%, which is less than half of his career percentage, and has 4 goals, it tells me that by rights he should have at least 8 right now. I'm not going to fault a guy on bad luck. He's PLAYING at a point-per-game pace this year, even if his actual stats are a bit short. You may find that to be flawed logic, but there it is.

As for the rest, in his first season with us he put up 27 points in 27 games. Last year, NOONE did well under MacLean, and once Lemaire took over, he was back to his normal pace. Make no doubt about it - Kovalchuk IS a point-per-game+ player.

Again, the problem is that everyone here expected Kovalchuk to be some sort of messiah that would be this all-around perfect player. I also think many people set an unrealistic expectation of the offense that he brings, expecting him to dismantle the opposition defense on every shift. Everyone got caught up in the hype of getting one of the most sought after UFAs in NHL history. Kovalchuk is not Crosby, he's not even Ovechkin (although lo and behold, even he can have some problems as we're seeing). People need to get it through their heads that even the best forwards in the league make tons of mistakes, have off nights, and just simply aren't going to create offense on every shift they're out. I would think people would realize that after having seen Parise play for so long.

lol at Kovy having bad luck for a year and a half here. Even if you want to arbitrarily give him eight goals, that STILL pro-rates out to only 30 for a season. CR's point still stands, he's been anything but a reliable 40-goal scorer, he's come in at about 30 last year and his pro-rated pace two years ago and this is no longer a small size sample. If he's only going to be a 30-goal, 70-point player then he'd better cut out the nonsense or at best he winds up being a wash. And you expect much better than a wash from a guy with his talent and contract.

As far as the bolded lol, give fans a little more credit than that. We weren't expecting 100-point seasons, we were expecting something resembling the numbers he put up in Atlanta with an improved awareness in the defensive zone since ostensibly we were going to teach him the finer points. Neither has happened, other than under Lemaire and Kovy certainly isn't doing much to prove he can excel under anyone other than Lemaire this year.

In an interview with Kovy last year after the MacLean debacle, he clearly stated that he was glad the RW "experiment" was over, and hoped it would never happen again. And yet here we are a few months later, back with him on the RW.

Yeah except he refuses to play RW and winds up shadowing Zach all over the ice as if he was Claude Lemieux sticking to Cam Neely in the '95 playoffs. I agree he shouldn't be at RW ever but he deserves culpability for not even trying to assimilate. Look at Elias, he played left wing for much of his career, went to center without a peep and is doing very well there too.

Edited November 27, 2011 by NJDevs4978

[Amberite]

lol at Kovy having bad luck for a year and a half here. Even if you want to arbitrarily give him eight goals, that STILL pro-rates out to only 30 for a season. CR's point still stands, he's been anything but a reliable 40-goal scorer, he's come in at about 30 last year and his pro-rated pace two years ago and this is no longer a small size sample. If he's only going to be a 30-goal, 70-point player then he'd better cut out the nonsense or at best he winds up being a wash. And you expect much better than a wash from a guy with his talent and contract.

As far as the bolded lol, give fans a little more credit than that. We weren't expecting 100-point seasons, we were expecting something resembling the numbers he put up in Atlanta with an improved awareness in the defensive zone since ostensibly we were going to teach him the finer points. Neither has happened, other than under Lemaire and Kovy certainly isn't doing much to prove he can excel under anyone other than Lemaire this year.

Last year he played half the season under MacLean, in which NOONE did well under and Kovalchuk openly expressed relief when he was replaced. Those few months are the basis for your "30-goal, 70-point" argument, and if you're not willing to accept that, I can't help you.

And actually, I'm not going to give fans on this board more credit than that. Most people WERE expecting 100-point seasons. Worse still is that people were expecting him to suddenly become a different player than he was in Atlanta, especially in regards to the defensive game. I'll admit that I had some hopes like that also, but you need to have realistic expectations, and most people here simply don't.

[Jerrydevil]

This notion that the team is using Kovalchuk wrong is the worst excuse-making for a "star" player.

[Amberite]

I also find it pretty ironic that noone has any problem with giving Parise $8M per year and sees nothing wrong with his game when he's only put up two 80+ point seasons with us in his career, and in his last 35 games only has 18 points (gasp!). But Parise can do no wrong because hey, he hustles his butt off and plays some defense. Except that noone realizes that Kovalchuk has much better hands than Parise, and when Parise's body starts to give out after years of giving 110% along the boards while Kovalchuk is still "floating" along, we'll all be singing a different tune about how "cheap" Kovalchuk is.

[Jerrydevil]

I also find it pretty ironic that noone has any problem with giving Parise $8M per year and sees nothing wrong with his game when he's only put up two 80+ point seasons with us in his career, and in his last 35 games only has 18 points (gasp!). But Parise can do no wrong because hey, he hustles his butt off and plays some defense. Except that noone realizes that Kovalchuk has much better hands than Parise, and when Parise's body starts to give out after years of giving 110% along the boards while Kovalchuk is still "floating" along, we'll all be singing a different tune about how "cheap" Kovalchuk is.

Please. Giving Kovalchuk more rope than Parise is asinine. It's ridiculous. One player has been a very good player for the Devils for four years and the other has been a disappointment.

[mikeford]

I cannot believe you people just conveniently forget what a HUGE part of our resurgence Kovalchuk was post-MacLean last year.

Whatever fits your narrative I guess.

[NJDevs4978]

And here we go with the if you have to defend Kovy you must bash Zach and vice-versa that's all too common among Devils fans.

I'd have a big problem giving him $8 million per, as far as a cap number anyway. His cap number is going to be higher than Kovy's, that's a fact for multiple reasons but it should be in the $7-7.5 million range.

And the concern with Zach is not his production, it's how he's rebounding from his injury. He's been a top player FOR THE DEVILS when healthy under multiple coaches, Kovy has not, other than one half a season under a coach that isn't coming back.

[Jerrydevil]

And here we go with the if you have to defend Kovy you must bash Zach and vice-versa that's all too common among Devils fans.

To me, one guy belongs here and the other does not. Some are saying the Devils don't use Kovalchuk correctly, but I think he is just a bad fit. Maybe that will change. What choice do we have but to give him a chance? We can't dump his ass.

[Triumph]

And here we go with the if you have to defend Kovy you must bash Zach and vice-versa that's all too common among Devils fans.

I'd have a big problem giving him $8 million per, as far as a cap number anyway. His cap number is going to be higher than Kovy's, that's a fact for multiple reasons but it should be in the $7-7.5 million range.

And the concern with Zach is not his production, it's how he's rebounding from his injury. He's been a top player FOR THE DEVILS when healthy under multiple coaches, Kovy has not, other than one half a season under a coach that isn't coming back.

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/uzr_for_nhl_shooters/

http://behindthenet.ca/shot_quality.php?sort=6&mingp=200

Zach Parise's skill is getting to high scoring areas and scoring - his talent is in constantly getting himself there. His skill is not his shot - according to these shot quality metrics, Parise shoots 1.4% worse than expected 5 on 5 over the last 4+ seasons. Kovalchuk shoots nearly double.

Kovalchuk's skill is his shot, and it hasn't gone anywhere, and I don't know why this debate is going to continue to persist whenever Kovalchuk falls into a slump.

The things I like about Kovalchuk's game this season:

- Better zone entries. Selection bias might be the cause of my thoughts here, but I think Kovalchuk is entering the zone without the puck much less often, and that this is in general a good thing. He's looking to get open for a shot.

- Fewer 1 on 2 or 1 on 3 rushes. He's still going to do this from time to time, but he's not pushing up to the opponent's blueline and then trying to take it past them.

- Better passing. Kovalchuk is an underrated passer. He's really confident in his passing ability and he will sometimes throw the puck to an area, but he can also make some really excellent passes. See also, his pass to Tedenby yesterday, or his pass to Henrique to set up Henrique's first NHL goal.

I don't like his exits from the defensive zone on the right side, but I probably wouldn't like them on the left side either.

[Devs4LordStanley]

Well, getting paid 6.66 mil/yr you HAVE TO be almost flawless & have to be in the top 2 in pts on the team.

That being said, i blame 60% of the whole team, 30% of kovy, & 10% of marty (cuz he was distracted w/ his stick right b4 the gwg. he should know kovy's a liability in the D zone.) we lost.

[SterioDesign]

well Zach was "a little bit pissed" in that postgame interview uh? lol

[njdevsftw]

It's not like the Devs have been dominating the playoffs the last years BEFORE Kovalchuk joined us either.. Boggles the mind how anyone even remotely interested in hockey can think having this guy around for $6,67M a year is somehow bad for the team.

[Amberite]

Please. Giving Kovalchuk more rope than Parise is asinine. It's ridiculous. One player has been a very good player for the Devils for four years and the other has been a disappointment.

Except that this is exactly the double-standard that I'm talking about. Parise will always get the benefit of the doubt because he's our home-grown hero who gives it his all, while Kovalchuk will be under intense scrutiny because of his playing style, his contract debacle, and other things. At the end of the day Kovalchuk is just as important for this team as Parise is, albeit in different ways. People need to adjust their expectations of him to be more in line with reality and accept him for the player he is, not for the player some people want him to be. Saying he's not a 40/80+ player is complete bullsh!t.

[Jerrydevil]

It's not like the Devs have been dominating the playoffs the last years BEFORE Kovalchuk joined us either.. Boggles the mind how anyone even remotely interested in hockey can think having this guy around for $6,67M a year is somehow bad for the team.

A $6.67 million power play specialist. Whoop-de-damn-do.

[Triumph]

Kovalchuk isn't a 40 goal scorer right now, but then again, who is in the NHL right now?

To score 40 goals in a season, a player has to, for instance:

shoot 20% on 200 shots. (extremely unlikely - only stamkos comes close to doing this)

shoot 13.3% on 300 shots. 300 shots is 3.66 shots per game.

right now there are 8 forwards in the NHL with 3.66 shots per game, and most of them are hovering barely above that amount.

I'm not sure there are any 'true' 40 goal scorers in the NHL right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Richard went to someone with between 40 and 45 goals.

But yes, with his ice time, Kovalchuk should be a point a game player who ends up with a scoring rate like 35 goals in 82 games.

Edited November 27, 2011 by Triumph

[NJDevs4978]

It's not like the Devs have been dominating the playoffs the last years BEFORE Kovalchuk joined us either.. Boggles the mind how anyone even remotely interested in hockey can think having this guy around for $6,67M a year is somehow bad for the team.

Considering the Devils have been a .500 team since Kovy arrived I don't see how you could argue the other way at this point. At least those Devil teams got to the playoffs, being .500 is a step BACK from that, not forward.

Hopefully it works out the other way, the Devils do make the playoffs, win a couple rounds with Kovy being an active contributor, but until that point he's not going to get the benefit of the doubt about anything.

Except that this is exactly the double-standard that I'm talking about. Parise will always get the benefit of the doubt because he's our home-grown hero who gives it his all

Plus he's actually contributed positively for the Devils, let's not minimize that part. Four 30+ goal seasons, and all without the negative 'idiosyncrascies' of Kovy's game. Kovy put up meaningless (for the most part) numbers in Atlanta, but he hasn't even contributed that here other than when - surprise! - the pressure was off in the second half.

Edited November 27, 2011 by NJDevs4978

[njdevsftw]

Considering the Devils have been a .500 team since Kovy arrived I don't see how you could argue the other way at this point. At least those Devil teams got to the playoffs, being .500 is a step BACK from that, not forward.

Kovy put up meaningless (for the most part) numbers in Atlanta, but he hasn't even contributed that here other than when - surprise! - the pressure was off in the second half.

Yeah that has everything to do with Kovy and nothing to do with MacLean or the Devils simply being a weaker team..

Meaningless numbers meaning what exactly..? Numbers not resulting in a cup?

[Marv4Life]

Plus he's actually contributed positively for the Devils, let's not minimize that part. Four 30+ goal seasons, and all without the negative 'idiosyncrascies' of Kovy's game. Kovy put up meaningless (for the most part) numbers in Atlanta, but he hasn't even contributed that here other than when - surprise! - the pressure was off in the second half.

So a point per game under Lemaire of all people after his trade in 2010 was meaningless? Being the only guy sans Zubrus who showed up in the Philly series didn't mean anything at all(not just on the scoresheet)? And until Zach shows up in the playoffs where it matters(which he hasn't for the most part) let alone helps take the team go far, until he's shown that he's captain material he shouldn't be given the whole benefit of the doubt.

Edited November 27, 2011 by Marv4Life