Official 2012 New York Mets Thread

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Not Harvey's best start, but at least he gave the Mets three scoreless innings after that rough second inning.

Small sample size, but hard not to be impressed...he does need to cut down on his walks (3.8 per 9 IP), but other than that, I'd say he's clearly exceeded expectations. Unless he clearly does nothing in next season's spring training, no way the guy isn't in the rotation to start the regular season.

Could be a pretty solid rotation, depending upon the off-season...if the Mets go status quo, could be looking at (in no particular order):

Dickey

Niese

Santana

Harvey

Gee

From May 20 to July 7 (10 starts), Gee had found a nice stride, allowing more than 3 ER only once, and going 7 IP or more 5 times...that's pretty damned good #3-4 material, if he could keep that up over a full season.

As crazy as it may sound, if the Mets are to keep Santana, I'd have him as the #5 coming out of spring, as I have no idea what to expect from him. If he pitches well and can remain healthy, no reason why the rotation can't be altered later, especially if one of the other starters falters. But I have good faith in this group keeping the Mets in ballgames through 6 innings.

['7']

#18 for RA!

Has Davis passed Wright in rbis??? Just goes to show how far off the grid David has fallen.

[Devils Dose]

Hey! Look what team is winning some games

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

#18 for RA!

Has Davis passed Wright in rbis??? Just goes to show how far off the grid David has fallen.

Davis is at 77, Wright is at 79. Hard to believe Ike has an outside shot at 100 RBI. His numbers are really trending in the right direction...since August 1, he's drawn 17 BB and struck out 18 times. Compare that to his season ratio of 47 BB to 118 K.

And check out his month-to-month OB+SLG (I excluded September...too small a sample):

April: .550

May: .496

June: .926

July: .794

August: .887

July was a weird month for Ike...he was awful from both a BA (.221) and OB% (.257) standpoint, but he hit 9 HRs in that time frame, so his OB+SLG was actually pretty respectable. But June and August were quite strong...if Ike can perform like he did in those months for most of the season, with a couple of July-type months sprinkled in, the Mets could be doing a lot worse at first base.

Yeah, David has largely disappeared in the second half. And for some reason, it seems like a lot of observers are ignoring this fact...all I keep hearing is how the Mets need to re-sign David Wright, like it's some sort of slamdunk. Unfortunately I think the fans that are doing this are remembering the first half of Wright's career and the first half of this season, and ignoring everything else...most notably, the disturbing similarities between last season and this season's second half. Signing Wright to a big contract is not, nor should be, some kind of automatic. I can already hear the phone calls to the WFAN next season, when in June, Wright is hitting in the .250s and on pace to strike out 150 times or so, and not getting it done in key situations. Sure, he could be closer to the player who looked pretty damned good over the first half of 2012, but I sure as hell ain't betting $100+ and 6+ years on that happening. Move him in the offseason.

Edited September 6, 2012 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Poor Jonathon Niese. The Mets have now scored five runs total in his last four starts. He's pitched well enough to win at least two of his last three, but has taken the loss in all three of those starts. He's now 10-9, which is really too bad...he was a much better pitcher this year than his W-L record will indicate.

Edited September 8, 2012 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Keeps getting uglier for Wright, yesterday's 2-for-4 effort notwithstanding. Just two extra-base hits since August 14. A whopping one HR since July 28, and eight RBI since July 30. 96 K on the season and counting, and this is after he did such a great job cutting down on his Ks over the first half. His BB-to-K ratio before July 1: 48-to-41. Since: 27-to-55.

I know some will make try to make a case as to why the Mets should bring him back, but I don't know how this can be done anymore, even with the Mets having some big contracts coming off the books in the next couple of seasons (meaning re-signing Wright probably won't kill them from a flexibility standpoint). If the Mets are really trying to build a contender for the future, I don't think an overpaid, underperforming David Wright (who ain't exactly known for raising his game when the stakes are higher) is the guy to build around. And even if you LOVE Wright and the balance of what he has done here, you can't say last season and the second half of this season don't scare you.

[nmigliore]

I feel like I click this thread and keep reading the same exact post. Maybe it's just me.

Kidding aside, CR, you're just beating a dead horse at this point. I don't necessarily disagree with the general point; although I still want him resigned, I feel doubtful he'll accept the terms that would make the deal look okay.

Edited September 9, 2012 by nmigliore

['7']

Parnell again

the biggest choke artist since Benitez

[NJDevs4978]

Except that Parnell's never really pitched in a playoff/late-season game with any meaning - so he's actually worse, at least Benitez got it done till August

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I feel like I click this thread and keep reading the same exact post. Maybe it's just me.

Kidding aside, CR, you're just beating a dead horse at this point. I don't necessarily disagree with the general point; although I still want him resigned, I feel doubtful he'll accept the terms that would make the deal look okay.

Understand what you're saying here nmig, I really do, and you're not wrong with how much I post about Wright...it's just that the numbers have been SO bad in the second half I feel they need to pointed out (especially as they get worse), because it seems like they're getting ignored...like I said, too many media-types and a lot of Met fans seem to think bringing back Wright is a no-brainer. The Mets can definitely be criticized for many things, but not opening up the coffers to re-sign Wright shouldn't be one of them, and I think it's a shame that the Mets will get slammed for this, when someone should have the balls to actually look at the balance of what Wright's done the past four seasons and say the Mets made a wise business move in not just doing the knee-jerk thing and throwing money at him.

In bold: honestly, why do you want him re-signed? I'm sure there are sabes that can make his second half look better than it appears to the eye (like last season's numbers), but he really does not look good. If I could have the David Wright of 2008 and before, I'd take him in a heartbeat...hell, even the David Wright on 2010 isn't bad...he was still jacking them out of the park at least! I know CitiField hasn't done him any favors, and even with his lousy second half this season, he's still put up his second-highest OB% for a season (.401)...but more and more it's feeling like it's time to move on.

Wouldn't you be worried if the Mets re-signed him?

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Parnell again

the biggest choke artist since Benitez

There are numbers that some will latch onto to that supposedly show that Parnell really is terrific...you can do the same thing with the Benitezes, the Wagners, and others...but the fact is that some guys have a propensity for blowing up in pressure spots, just like others have a way of NOT getting intimidated in the same situations. The "blowers" may not blow up so much that it kills their overall numbers (Benitez and Wagner pretty much always had eye-friendly stats), but just enough that players like Benitez, Wagner, and Parnell start getting reputations as choke-artists and guys that make you nervous when they're on the mound in a big spot. And like I've always maintained, spectators don't just pull these ideas out of thin air.

Having said that, NJDevs4978 is right, in that it's not like Parnell's ever truly been tested in a real playoff race. I think the problem with Parnell, along with being a bit sqirrelly on the mound, is the same problem he's always had...he's just not THAT hard to hit. It's hard to overcome that...when you have a 1.36 WHIP and are constantly pitching with guys on base, some of those guys are going to score...and I REALLY wish I could find the inherited runner numbers...the ones Parnell allowed to score that didn't figure into his ERA.

Edited September 10, 2012 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

And it is really hard NOT to get excited about Ike Davis' numbers. It's really starting to feel like the guy is primed for a big year next season. The 20 BB-to-20 K ratio since August 1 is terrific. Walking more and striking out less...who wouldn't want that? The guy could finish with 30 HR, 90 RBI, and a .240 BA...pretty damned good for a guy who was being rumored to be sent down. He'll probably never be a super-high BA-type and he'll probably strike out at least 120 times per season, but he has made a lot of progress this year...if the Mets do the right thing and move on from Wright, at least there's a young guy who could help offset Wright's absence if Davis can continue to progress.

[NJDevs4978]

Ike the first half of the year hadn't played in almost a year (after his injury last year) and was recovering from the valley fever, I do think early last year and the second half is closer to what we can expect from him going forward.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Ike the first half of the year hadn't played in almost a year (after his injury last year) and was recovering from the valley fever, I do think early last year and the second half is closer to what we can expect from him going forward.

I know there were factors, but the guy had a .158 BA on June 8...I'm sure he wasn't enjoying much luck, but that is soooooooooo bad...it's such great to see that he's not only bouncing back, but that the subtler parts of his game are showing significant improvement...for July he walked 4 times and struck out 28. 20 BBs and 20 Ks since. That is huge.

[NJDevs4978]

I can only shake my head at this point:

AdamRubinESPN Updating our stat, Nats win would mean they have 6 victories at Citi Field in the second half, leading the Braves (5 wins) and Mets (4 wins)

Nats up 2-0 in the bottom of the 9th, another good start by Harvey wasted. And the Phillies are in the middle of another miracle run. What a wonderful time to be a Mets fan

['7']

I know. The Cardinals just need to wake the fvck up and bury the Phillies already. Cards went to San Diego and just rolled over and died.

What's different this year is that philly won't win a wc outright, there is a playoff game.

St. Louis now plays the Dodgers for 4, LA is also ahead of the Phillies...basically means Philly will have a tough time gaining any ground in the next couple of days

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I can only shake my head at this point:

AdamRubinESPN Updating our stat, Nats win would mean they have 6 victories at Citi Field in the second half, leading the Braves (5 wins) and Mets (4 wins)

Nats up 2-0 in the bottom of the 9th, another good start by Harvey wasted. And the Phillies are in the middle of another miracle run. What a wonderful time to be a Mets fan

Really wasn't THAT good a start by Harvey...throwing 106 pitches and leaving the bases loaded with no outs in the 6th leaves some elements to be desired. The 10 Ks look great in the box score, but starters are supposed to go at least 6 innings. I'm not saying he sucked, but clearly when you leave the bases loaded with no outs, you get a little luck when your reliever gets out of it for you. He could've easily been charged with 2, 3 or 4 ER, which would've made his line look less impressive in the box score.

But as far as Harvey's being here went, it couldn't have gone much better...he was a great great story. Hope the Mets loser atmosphere doesn't rub off on him.

Yeah, the four home wins are pathetic...all the progress made in the first half trying to restore respectability to this franchise has been eradicated. They're laughingstocks again.

Guess Wright is trying to protect his BA average now...all the guy does is hit singles. His OB% is .317 and his SLG% is .308 for September. Maybe he figures if he finishes the year with a BA in the .310s, no one will notice that he did next to nothing in the second half of the season.

And, yeah, I'm ripping the sh!t out of the guy, because the David Wrights are the guys you're supposed to depend on in the rough times, the guy who still finds a way when many others are struggling. And he doesn't. The team sinks, he sinks right along with them. Isn't this guy supposed to be playing for a big contract, regardless of whether or not his team in out of contention...one that's supposed to show that he's worthy of being "The Man", and being paid as such?

[nmigliore]

Sorry, hadn't even noticed new posts in this thread.

On preferring to extend Wright: you can criticize his 2nd half, and rightfully so, but you can't also throw away his 1st half. That's selection bias. Additionally, it was not fair to expect him to maintain that ridiculous 1st half pace in the first place. Overall he's hit to the tune of a 140 wRC+, shades of the vintage (2005-2008) David Wright, and posted one of the best WAR marks (by both Fangraphs' and B-Ref's) in baseball. However you want to slice his season up, the fact he's been excellent overall this year can't be ignore.

With all of that said, however, the more I think about it, the more I don't know who Wright really is. Maybe he still has another elite year or two (or more) left in him, or maybe he's more like the good-not-great player he's been in the 2nd half and the prior 3 seasons. Considering his age and the Mets' place on the win curve (aka contender status), I would probably err on the side of caution and trade him this winter. He'd be this winter's top player on the trade market at a position that lacks anything good in free agency (you're seriously looking at someone like Kevin Youkilis or Jeff Keppinger as the top 3B in free agency).

Re, Ike: I don't mean to be snarky and say 'I told you so', but, yeah - he's continued to show this year has been more about bad luck on balls in play rather than an eroding of skill(s).

Career rates: 11.2 BB%, 23.1 K%, .201 ISO, .293 BABIP

2012 rates: 10.3 BB%, 23.9 K%, .219 ISO, .244 BABIP

Everything is the same, practically. The biggest separation is in BABIP, which he has the least amount of control over.

I have plenty of confidence in Ike bouncing back in 2013.

Edited September 14, 2012 by nmigliore

[NJDevs4978]

The problem with Wright's first half and where I do agree with CR is it's an anomaly compared to what he's done the last few years. Wright hasn't been a truly elite player (.300-30-100) since 2008. 2009 and 2011 were awful by his earlier standards, 2010 was okay, this year he's been a total Jekyll and Hyde act.

Unfortunately he is going to get paid by someone for his 2004-08 stats more than his last four years. I'd still rather it be us as long as it's not a ridiculous overpayment, because the Mets have taken enough hits as a franchise the last few years as it is. Losing the two faces of the franchise in back to back offseasons would be a total PR disaster, although if you were able to get enough in a trade for Wright maybe you could sell it since the Mets have so many needs elsewhere.

Edited September 14, 2012 by NJDevs4978

[nmigliore]

Josh Thole actually got a hit tonight, and it was a double! His first double since July 29th!

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

The problem with Wright's first half and where I do agree with CR is it's an anomaly compared to what he's done the last few years. Wright hasn't been a truly elite player (.300-30-100) since 2008. 2009 and 2011 were awful by his earlier standards, 2010 was okay, this year he's been a total Jekyll and Hyde act.

Unfortunately he is going to get paid by someone for his 2004-08 stats more than his last four years. I'd still rather it be us as long as it's not a ridiculous overpayment, because the Mets have taken enough hits as a franchise the last few years as it is. Losing the two faces of the franchise in back to back offseasons would be a total PR disaster, although if you were able to get enough in a trade for Wright maybe you could sell it since the Mets have so many needs elsewhere.

But are Reyes and Wright necessarily the guys you want to be the faces of your franchise? They're both known as guys who have put up some good to very good numbers though the years, but I don't think of either guy as a winner, or terribly great clutch performers. Francesca can come off as a major blowhard at times, but last year when he went ballistic about Reyes' and Wright's repeated failures in the clutch...it's like I've always said, he and others who share his viewpoint didn't pull that observation out of thin air.

To me, I think Wright has had his chances here, and it feels more and more like it's time to move on...especially since the Mets are going to pay more than they ever have for his services, and likely get less in return than they ever have from him.

[nmigliore]

By the way, Niese set a career-high in IP last night and now boasts a 4.15 K/BB and 3.07 ERA in the 2nd half, both of which are substantially better than his 1st half splits. I think the "Niese falls apart in the 2nd half" meme can go away now.

Edited September 15, 2012 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Really too bad the Mets offense disappeared...Niese deserves better than 11-9. He had a terrific season...one that was a leap forward in every possible way. A great positive.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Re, Ike: I don't mean to be snarky and say 'I told you so', but, yeah - he's continued to show this year has been more about bad luck on balls in play rather than an eroding of skill(s).

Career rates: 11.2 BB%, 23.1 K%, .201 ISO, .293 BABIP

2012 rates: 10.3 BB%, 23.9 K%, .219 ISO, .244 BABIP

Everything is the same, practically. The biggest separation is in BABIP, which he has the least amount of control over.

I have plenty of confidence in Ike bouncing back in 2013.

Who here said his skills were eroding? I've been pointing out that his numbers have been heading in the right direction for a while now, especially the BB-to-K ratio, which was God-awful for quite a while this season. He's only hitting .176 for September, but has put up a .378 OB% this month, and since August 1, has walked 23 times and struck out 26.

Yeah, all signs point to him having a much better year overall than this one...I'd be stunned if he hit in the .220s again.

[nmigliore]

I didn't mean to insinuate you or anyone else said he showed an erosion of talent. I was just referring to a post I made awhile ago that showed Ike's down 2012 was more about bad luck on balls in play (BABIP) rather than some sort of decline in talent, regardless of whether or not anyone believed Ike's poor 2012 had more to do with the latter or not.

It was kind of a self pat on the back (since I identified BABIP as the cause in that older post) and since it should be even more clear now that Ike's down 2012 really was about BABIP and not much else (see the post above comparing his 2012 peripherals and career peripherals).

Edited September 15, 2012 by nmigliore