Official 2012 New York Mets Thread

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

The thing is, you harp way too much on the hits, REGARDLESS of whether or not that's all tough luck or not. It makes no sense. You're just cherry picking a stat, moaning about it, and ignoring the fact he's posted a great ERA in his career as a reliever (3.35 over 200+ IP) DESPITE that lousy hit rate. What's the issue?

Hey, if you wanna say he doesn't have the balls to close or something, go ahead. But we need to stop pretending like he's not good. I don't give a sh!t how "hittable" he is; check the results and PROVE to me that it's hurting his ERA. The fact of the matter is that it's not, because he still strikes out a lot of guys and doesn't walk many.

I don't understand the Heilman thing. Heilman's bad year with the Mets was 2008, so I presume that's the year we're talking about; but he was awful by both actual results and sabermetric stats. There wasn't any good luck or bad luck going on there; he just stunk.

When since is a 3.35 ERA "great" for a reliever? And since when did a reliever's ERA become a great way to measure how good he's been?

To quote Derrick Coleman: "whoopdee-damn-do", as far as the walks and strikeouts go. You're cherry-picking too, acting like that those numbers somehow minimize the hits allowed. The fact is when you're giving up more hits than innings pitched, you BETTER not be walking too many guys. You want to say he's good, that's fine...like I said, I think he's a guy who can be good for stretches, but has "wilt in the spotlight moments" written all over him, a la Benitez. Not that the Mets are going to the playoffs anytime soon, but would YOU feel comfortable if you saw him trotting in for the 8th inning in a playoff game with the Mets up by a run or two? Honestly, how could you? Sorry, but when a guy like Parnell, who's been hittable no matter what the level of competition, is facing a playoff-caliber lineup...if you don't think his propensity for giving up hits isn't something to worry about...I don't know what to tell you.

I brought up Heilman because, it's like I said, I've seen a tendency among sabermetricians to blow up strikeouts...Tri did it with Heilman that season, stating that he really wasn't pitching much worse than the season before (wrong), and pointed to Heilman's increase in strikeouts in 2008 as one of the reasons why. You are doing the same thing now, blowing up Parnell's strikeout totals. Great, so he can strike out some guys. I'd be a lot happier if he was giving up less baserunners. His WHIP is 1.33, which is nothing special (though better than his career 1.49).

I've already told '7' that I think the Mets need to give Parnell one more season...I never said get rid of the guy. My main quibble with what you said is that you said he was dominant. No matter what numbers you choose to throw out there, that simply isn't accurate.

Edited August 24, 2012 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Question for anyone here...can anyone find Parnell's number of inherited runners, and how many of them he's allowed to score? I can't seem to find a site that has that info.

[nmigliore]

When since is a 3.35 ERA "great" for a reliever? And since when did a reliever's ERA become a great way to measure how good he's been?

To quote Derrick Coleman: "whoopdee-damn-do", as far as the walks and strikeouts go. You're cherry-picking too, acting like that those numbers somehow minimize the hits allowed. The fact is when you're giving up more hits than innings pitched, you BETTER not be walking too many guys. You want to say he's good, that's fine...like I said, I think he's a guy who can be good for stretches, but has "wilt in the spotlight moments" written all over him, a la Benitez. Not that the Mets are going to the playoffs anytime soon, but would YOU feel comfortable if you saw him trotting in for the 8th inning in a playoff game with the Mets up by a run or two? Honestly, how could you? Sorry, but when a guy like Parnell, who's been hittable no matter what the level of competition, is facing a playoff-caliber lineup...if you don't think his propensity for giving up hits isn't something to worry about...I don't know what to tell you.

It is great, re: low-3's ERA. Did you know that, since 2010, Parnell has a better ERA than Jonathan Papelbon?

And no, I don't like ERA either, but whenever I break anything else out you accuse me of pulling off some sabermetric voodoo or whatever. Also, please - I'm cherry-picking? Yeah, let's see: K%, BB%, GB%, HR/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA. I can go on. You cite hits, which you still ignore is highly dependent on the defense behind the pitcher, and your gut. That's fantastic insight right there.

I brought up Heilman because, it's like I said, I've seen a tendency among sabermetricians to blow up strikeouts...Tri did it with Heilman that season, stating that he really wasn't pitching much worse than the season before (wrong), and pointed to Heilman's increase in strikeouts in 2008 as one of the reasons why. You are doing the same thing now, blowing up Parnell's strikeout totals. Great, so he can strike out some guys. I'd be a lot happier if he was giving up less baserunners. His WHIP is 1.33, which is nothing special (though better than his career 1.49).

If he argued Heilman's 2008 was like his previous season(s), then, well, he was wrong. It's more than just strikeouts; sure he struck out more batters, but he lost the effect of that bonus when you account for the big increase in walks and homeruns. Heilman was bad in 2008, both by actual results and sabermetrics.

Do you see what I'm getting at here? I'M NOT just focusing on strikeouts. I'm focusing on things that a pitcher has the MOST control over, which are strikeouts, walks, and homeruns. Why do you think I cite FIP and xFIP? You do realize that strikeouts, walks, homeruns/groundballs is what goes into those stats, right? THESE ARE PROVEN to be more effective predicting what a pitcher's ERA should better than any other stat, including ERA itself, that's why I focus on those things.

I've already told '7' that I think the Mets need to give Parnell one more season...I never said get rid of the guy. My main quibble with what you said is that you said he was dominant. No matter what numbers you choose to throw out there, that simply isn't accurate.

One more season and then what? You would get rid of him? Unless I'm misinterpreting this, I don't understand that logic at all; it's like you're trying to spin a low-3's ERA into being replacement level performance. Again, maybe I'm misunderstanding what you implied by saying "giving him one more season."

Edited August 24, 2012 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I don't like ERA either but whenever I break anything else out you accuse me of pulling off some sabermetric voodoo or whatever. Also, please - I'm cherry-picking? That's hilarious. Yeah, let's see: K%, BB%, GB%, HR/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA. I can go on. You cite hits, which you still ignore is highly dependent on the defense behind the pitcher, and your gut. That's fantastic insight right there.

If he argued Heilman's 2008 was like his previous season(s), then, well, he was wrong. It's more than just strikeouts. Heilman was bad in 2008, both by actual results and sabermetrics. Sure he struck out more batters, but he lost the effect of that bonus when you account for the big increase in walks and homeruns.

And again I'M NOT just focusing on strikeouts. I'm focusing on things that a pitcher has the MOST control over, which are strikeouts, walks, and homeruns. Why do you think I cite FIP and xFIP? You do realize that strikeouts, walks, homeruns/groundballs is what goes into those stats, right? THESE ARE PROVEN to be more effective predicting what a pitcher's ERA should better than any other stat, including ERA itself, that's why I focus on those things.

One more season? What the hell? I'm sorry. I just do not understand your logic at all. It's like you're trying to spin a low-3's ERA into being replacement level performance. That's how I read that. Why else would you want to give up on a very useful reliever?

And re: the hits, it's like I said...it's nothing new. He's been giving them up for years. At every level. So is that ALL attributable to Parnell's defense behind him? None of that is on Parnell? Sounds like that's what you'd have me believe.

As for the "one more season" comment...one more season as a guy given a shot to be a premiere guy in the bullpen (in this case, the primary set-up guy). He's already shown that he can't seem to handle the closer role. If he can't be a consistent set-up man, then you see about making him, say, one of the more-used secondary guys, maybe a spot closer who gets 5-10 save opportunities a season (or comes in the ninth in a non-save, 4-run lead-type situation), a guy who sets up sometimes but isn't the main set-up guy...basically, a solid jack-of-all-trades type. The more I'm thinking about it, Parnell's best role might be no defined role at all.

[nmigliore]

And re: the hits, it's like I said...it's nothing new. He's been giving them up for years. At every level. So is that ALL attributable to Parnell's defense behind him? None of that is on Parnell? Sounds like that's what you'd have me believe.

It's pretty disappointing to put together an entire post like that and then have you focus only on hits again; this is why I do not care to get involved in these debates. Look, if you think he's not that great, hey, believe what you want. I tried my best to explain my thoughts and logic as I've done on numerous occasions. If you have a question about one of those advanced stats that incorporate K%, BB%, and homeruns (or) groundballs, I'll be happy to explain it via PM, but I'm not going to touch this Parnell debate again. It really is just a waste of time to me, sorry.

Edited August 24, 2012 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

It is great, re: low-3's ERA. Did you know that, since 2010, Parnell has a better ERA than Jonathan Papelbon?

Papelbon's numbers in 2010 (3.90 ERA) skew his numbers a bit, and Papelbon has shown he can be an effective closer over multiple seasons. Parnell has yet to show he can handle that responsibility, even short-term. And he has yet to have a season that's even close to Papelbon's best.

Papelbon career WHIP: 1.03

Parnell career WHIP: 1.49

These guys really don't belong in the same conversation.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

It's pretty disappointing to put together an entire post like that and then have you focus only on hits again; this is why I do not care to get involved in these debates. Look, if you think he's not that great, hey, believe what you want. I tried my best to explain my thoughts and logic as I've done on numerous occasions. If you have a question about one of those advanced stats that incorporate K%, BB%, and homeruns (or) groundballs, I'll be happy to explain it via PM, but I'm not going to touch this Parnell debate again. It really is just a waste of time to me, sorry.

No, I got the other stuff. It's not that difficult to grasp. Clearly as long as those numbers are pretty good, you don't have an issue with Parnell's penchant for giving up hits. I think if Parnell was as good as you seem to believe he is, he wouldn't have failed when given the shot to close, and Met fans wouldn't be biting their nails when they see him coming into a tight game.

Anyway, like I said, I think if he has a future as a Met that won't have Met fans nervous, it will be as the set-up man, or a utilityman in the bullpen.

OK, question for the participants of this thread...your honest assessment of Parnell's overall performance?

[NJDevs4978]

Parnell can be a member of the pen for the next few years, he just can't be a key member. He's basically Kyle Farnsworth only not as good, a guy with a big fastball but is eminintely hittable in big spots.

[NJDevs4978]

The team has quit for the most part. Collins needs to start feeling major heat. Making the rockies look like the greatest staff in major league history is pretty low, even for us

Yeah I'm done with Collins, it's easy to have the guys play hard when they still have a chance but they've definitely quit, other than the starting pitching and it's the second year in a row they laid down and died after the All-Star break. They look like they're playing the '27 Yankees every game at Citi Field.

Francesa darn near had a heart attack ripping them after the game lol, he was even comparing Collins to Kotite which is a bit much, but he has been too accepting of the Mets' dead-ass play for my liking. You can't say at least we're in these games when you just got swept at home by a team 25 under.

Edited August 24, 2012 by NJDevs4978

['7']

Yeah I'm done with Collins, it's easy to have the guys play hard when they still have a chance but they've definitely quit, other than the starting pitching and it's the second year in a row they laid down and died after the All-Star break. They look like they're playing the '27 Yankees every game at Citi Field.

Francesa darn near had a heart attack ripping them after the game lol, he was even comparing Collins to Kotite which is a bit much, but he has been too accepting of the Mets' dead-ass play for my liking. You can't say at least we're in these games when you just got swept at home by a team 25 under.

ha, kotite is a bit off the deep end there.

[NJDevs4978]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgyRKcEXYtI

The whole Francesa rant here.

Edited August 24, 2012 by NJDevs4978

[nmigliore]

The Francesa rant is hilarious. People on Twitter are quoting great segments of it and hashtagging it as the #FrancesaEruption.

Edited August 24, 2012 by nmigliore

['7']

He sounded very Mad Dog on a few moments

THE 8 PEOPLE THAT WERE THERE TODAY....GIVE 'EM THERE MONEY BACK!"

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Yeah I'm done with Collins, it's easy to have the guys play hard when they still have a chance but they've definitely quit, other than the starting pitching and it's the second year in a row they laid down and died after the All-Star break. They look like they're playing the '27 Yankees every game at Citi Field.

Francesa darn near had a heart attack ripping them after the game lol, he was even comparing Collins to Kotite which is a bit much, but he has been too accepting of the Mets' dead-ass play for my liking. You can't say at least we're in these games when you just got swept at home by a team 25 under.

Fatso is right about a lot of what he ranted about. Collins truly seems shaken and beaten at this point. It's looking more and more like this team isn't responding to him, but for once, I'd like to see the PLAYERS take the hit, instead of the manager. But if what Sandy says is true, there will be changes coming...and if they are made, I'd give Collins a chance to see what he could do with a made-over roster.

That being said, I kind of always got the impression that Collins was going to be a stop-gap type anyway, until the team was truly ready to contend again. If they ever did let Collins go (and if the Mets continue to play THIS badly through the end of the season, I can't rule that out) where would they even go for a new manager?

[nmigliore]

On a lighter note to everything... I don't know if anyone else follows the minors, but if not, you're probably unaware of how well the pro debuts are going for our top two picks in last year's draft.

Brandon Nimmo, a centerfielder, was who the Mets took 13th overall last year. They decided against the aggressive push to full season low-A and put him in the short-seasoned NYPL instead. The conservative approach seems to have been a great call. Nimmo has not only been one of the betters hitters (.800 OPS) in a league with a collective .665 OPS, but he's also one of the youngest players in the league at 19. Among hitters that are 19 or younger in the NYPL, Nimmo's .800 OPS ranks at the top. I have Nimmo ranked as the best position player prospect in the Mets' system and the #2 overall prospect, behind just Zack Wheeler. Look for him to potentially crack a few Top 100 prospect lists this winter.

Michael Fulmer, a right-handed pitcher, was who the Mets took 44th overall last year. In case you were wondering, the Mets received this draft pick by simply offering Pedro Feliciano arbitration (he predictably declined it and walked via free agency). Fulmer will throw low- to mid-90's with a good (if inconsistent) breaking ball and developing chageup. Unlike with Nimmo, the Mets were pretty aggressive with Fulmer, plopping him in Savannah (low-A) from day one of 2012. Fulmer has made that decision look very wise, putting up some of the best numbers in the SAL: 108.1 IP, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.74 ERA. Remember, he's also just 19, and made a fairly large jump from high school to full season low-A, with hardly any experience in between. I have Fulmer as the 2nd best pitching prospect in the system and as the #4 overall prospect. He could crack a Top 100 list this winter, but I wouldn't bet on it; he's still very much a work in progress and some people already believe he'll be a future reliever.

Edited August 24, 2012 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

God knows the Mets could use outfield help...guessing Nimmo's probably at least three years away though. Maybe he'll be one of the guys who would go in a trade for some help now.

Interesting on Fulmer...I'll keep my eye on him.

[nmigliore]

God knows the Mets could use outfield help...guessing Nimmo's probably at least three years away though.

Yeah, not close. If everything goes right I'd expect 2016, but projecting things like that is mostly useless speculation right now. He'll probably go to Savannah (low-A) to begin next year with maybe an eye towards St. Lucie (high-A) in the 2nd half if he hits really well.

Edited August 24, 2012 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Jesus, even Niese is joining the sh!t parade. Back-to-back doubles allowed to the 8th and 9th hitters. Ouch.

[nmigliore]

For what it's worth, Niese has a 2.89 ERA and 6-to-1 K/BB since June. I know he's been pitching really well recently but that even stunned me, particularly the nutso K/BB.

You wouldn't expect him to have a stinker against a team like this, but hey, it happens, that's baseball (and this doesn't even qualify as a stinker yet).

Edited August 25, 2012 by nmigliore

[nmigliore]

200th career homerun for David Wright! Awesome. I love that man.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

For what it's worth, Niese has a 2.89 ERA and 6-to-1 K/BB since June. I know he's been pitching really well recently but that even stunned me, particularly the nutso K/BB.

You wouldn't expect him to have a stinker against a team like this, but hey, it happens, that's baseball (and this doesn't even qualify as a stinker yet).

Oh I know, Niese clearly can make this a good start overall, but the back-to-back doubles against hitters 8 and 9 is the kind of thing that seems to be happening lately to the Mets. But yeah, goes without saying Niese is having a terrific season.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

200th career homerun for David Wright! Awesome. I love that man.

I wish it hadn't taken him so damned long. He can still have a good September, but this year is really ending on a whimper for David. This is going to be a tough decision for Sandy.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

God does Thole suck.

Positive development time: for the month of August, Ike Davis has drawn 10 walks and struck out 12 times. This is a quantum leap over the previous months.

Edited August 25, 2012 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Nice job by Niese to get through the 3rd thru 6th innings after that tough 1st and 2nd. Now can you guys score some fvcking runs for SOMEBODY?!

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Crap, bad break for David on that one, but hell of a throw.